What Does Travel/Entertainment/Dining Out Look Like in the Near Future?
I know we've been talking about being able to attend sporting events quite a bit, but I've been thinking about and talking to a lot of friends/colleagues about the wider implications of the ability/inability to gather in large crowds...right now and in the future.
What does the entire travel, entertainment, restaurant, event, convention/conference, etc. segment look like over the coming 6-18 months?
I'm admittedly falling in the camp that sees this as a very dire situation.
My family is well above average when it comes to the level of participation in these categories. Love to eat out. Attend a lot of concerts and music festivals. Go to movies. Travel quite a bit. See plays and other shows. Charitable events. Business trips/conventions. Been on the bar/bat mitzvah circuit for about ten years. Etc. I see our participation in all of these activities remaining very low for the next 6-18 months, regardless of any policy changes.
Let's isolate the restaurant category for a moment. Anyone who knows anything about restaurant economics will tell you that instituting social distancing by spreading out/eliminating tables and shutting down/limiting bar areas will kill a restaurant's ability to make a profit. Plus, how comfortable will people be going to a restaurant...even with social distancing and enhanced cleaning measures? How will the entire experience be degraded when everyone is in masks, everyone has to keep a distance from one another, etc?
Or, travel. A good friend of mine lives in Chicago, and I mentioned to him during a conversation earlier this week that Chicago (we live in Metro Detroit) would probably be among the best travel destinations for us...given that it's close and we can drive there. Then we started talking about the issues with staying in a hotel, being able to go to museums and other places where people congregate, whether our favorite restaurants/bars would be open, etc. Even being able to walk around on sidewalks in crowded areas. These issues make the prospect of any travel much less appealing. Not to mention if you are away from home and a new stay-at-home order is issued.
What say you? Are you going to be reluctant to engage in eating out, going to events, traveling, etc...even if the restrictions/limitations on doing so are lifted?
Do you think these categories are going to be irreperably harmed by the fall-out from coronavirus and the long-term implications of social distancing, increased costs due to cleaning, etc?
Hoping this won't become a political debate. Just interested in everone's thoughts on how their habits might change...and the impact on these categories of business.
Everyone will share in the costs. Prices of food will go up because supply of restaurants/seats will go down, so it'll cost more for customers. Price of rent/overhead will go down because there will be a lot of vacant restaurant buildings out there, so landlords will take a hit. Food prices for restaurants will go down because there will be a surplus, those suppliers will take a hit.
There will remain a market, people have gotten into the habit of not cooking and the social aspect of going out to eat.
Once things are relaxed a bit, it'll still be best to keep your social group small. Backyard BBQs, fires, etc. with friends should be at an all time high this summer. Best thing you can do is keep your local restaurants going with take out orders.
I think any large indoor event will be cancelled for the forseeable future. So fans at basketball games, hockey games, etc. will be a no go. Conferences with crowded presentations at a hotel? Not likely.
However, outdoor sports might have a chance with limited seating. Baseball for instance might be able to sell 5000 tickets and spread that out over the stadium in a responsible fashion. Now, is that worth it from a profit level? Dunno. But in theory it might be able to work.
Restaurants should embrace outdoor seating and cities should try to accommodate this. I can think of a large parking lot where I live that could be closed and used for restaurants in the area. Indoor seating should be very limited and away from air conditioners. Bars? Maybe every third stool?
Movie theatres...man. I don't know and it pains me because I love going to the movies. Return of the drive in movie for a summer?
I don't know the economics of a movie theater but I imagine they are hurting regardless.
We don't watch a ton of movies but if we do we're getting them online.
Movie theatres make virtually all of their profits on concessions. The movie tickets themselves net them very little money.
how does that translate if you can only be 1/3 - 1/2 full? No idea. But if concessions are down, forget it.
I wonder if they could set up outdoor projectors and run a few movies a night on top of limiting capacity in any theater to 1/3?
Maybe just open up concessions so if people want to get popcorn and bring it home they could do so? Good movie theater popcorn can't be beat in the popcorn world.
I've heard this "space everybody out in the stadium" theory floated for baseball & football and it's fine for watching the games. But a few other problems aren't dealt with like:
1. How do they get into the stadium? How do you enforce safe distancing waiting to clear security?
2. Do people get assigned times for bathroom breaks?
3. What about concession stand lines?
4. And leaving the stadium, will people be asked to wait nicely and form a long, socially distant line of departure?
Couple all that with most fans have been drinking beer and you have almost no chance of achieving social distance no matter where they actually sit.
April 23rd, 2020 at 10:00 AM ^
1. If we are talking 5000 people, I think you could manage the same way a lot of stores have managed with the social distancing markers.
2. Stadiums are built for far larger capacities, so I think if you left enough bathrooms open, you shouldn't have a problem. Close every other sink and every third urinal?
3. App for ordering concessions to be brought to you by a stadium worker?
4. Perhaps with the above, you have a limit on beer/alcohol? If you're only using the app to order, you're done after 3? Again, we're talking about stadiums built for 30k+ at least, so I don't think it should be too difficult to limit contact. It won't be perfect, but it could be done.
April 23rd, 2020 at 10:07 AM ^
And leaving the stadium? How do you envision that working, that would depend entirely on people self-regulating space to depart no?
Have you ever been to a game, church, concert, you-name-it before? Nobody waits patiently, nobody.
April 23rd, 2020 at 11:12 AM ^
Somewhat. But I think that generally people will do this. You'll have some bad apples, but you will with anything.
You could announce sections leaving at 3 minute intervals as well.
April 23rd, 2020 at 10:31 AM ^
Don't touch the railing between the rows...
I think the best answers to this questions, at least for me depend on a couple of things....
1) Do I already have antibodies?
2) once they release the stay at home, what will the second “curve” look like. Will I see a spike in the amount of cases coming back into the hospital.
3) finally, how afraid are you of getting this? Aren’t we all going to get it anyway!?!??
all things to consider.
I believe they predicted 1/3 to 1/2 of people will get it. Not sure how they came up with that number.
April 23rd, 2020 at 10:12 AM ^
I think we open up and essentially go back to normal besides the high-risk, pre-existing condition portion of society. If all the low-risk people get it and develop anti-bodies, it helps everyone else because they won't be unknowingly infected and spreading it anymore.
My question is when, if ever, it will become common knowledge that being obese is a pre-existing condition. If you can't walk up the stairs without being out of breath, this could kill you. With all the "every body type is beautiful", anti body shaming culture recently, it seems like no news outlets want to come out and say that.
The news outlets barely tell you that it's almost all old people, you expect them to tell you us fat people are at risk too? Please.
Front page article in the DetNews on the tragic tale of the young girl who died of meningitis or Covid, take your pick. When they ought to be running story after story of the nursing homes being cleaned out by Covid deaths to scare the hell out of the old people so they stay isolated.
I've heard so many stories of people who had a variety of the symptoms from the CDC list at some time, starting in mid-Dec. These included 19 of the 22 people I work with. The Stanford study showed that 50-85 times the reported number of people have already had this. Based on the numbers from the Johns Hopkins web site, 850,000 people are confirmed. That means that somewhere between 42,500,000 and 72,250,000 people have gotten sick and recovered.
What percentage of the population constitutes herd immunity?
Since I have a toddler my going to events and out to bars/restaurants has been limited compared to before we had a kid so I don't see much changing. I'll keep trying to go to local restaurants and order carryout etc...
Not being able to travel sucks. I prefer to spend my money on experiences rather than stuff so we had multiple trips already planned for this year that I've had to either cancel or postpone. Thankfully the airlines have been wonderful about refunds or rescheduling.
I am going to start travelling for business, possibly starting May 4th. I plan on staying at either residents Inn or staybridge. I don't plan on getting housekeeping while I am there. Getting groceries and eating in my room. I may stay longer than normal to reduce the risk during travel. The state I am going to has a 14 day quarantine if you fly though any large city. I found a direct flight from grand rapids.
While there everyone will be wearing either n95 or surgical masks. Plus their normal ppe.
I worked in Mexico for over two years. Some bad stuff happened when I was there. Cartels would hang the people they killed off Highway bridges. My plan is don't do anything stupid and limit exposure.
April 23rd, 2020 at 12:05 PM ^
Took a dark turn in that post with the cartel hangings lol
The restaurant industry, as a whole, will bounce back. A lot of restaurants will close (particularly your small mom and pop kitchens with no corporate backing), but when the economy begins to re-surface, new restaurants will take their place. At the end of the day, people still need to eat, and not everyone wants to stay in and cook for themselves seven nights a week.
I don't think the travel industry, in particular airlines, will change that much. Airlines have a stranglehold on travel. They are the best option for the foreseeable future on getting you across big distances in a short amount of time, and until someone invents flying cars or brings the bullet train to the US, airlines aren't going anywhere. I do think you're going to see a big rise in AirBNB and other related companies, though. A lot of people will get so used to being at home and not wanting to associate themselves with crowds that they will be staying away from hotels.
What I will be really interested to see is movie theaters. AMC is on the verge of going bankrupt in a few months, I imagine the other bigwigs like Regal Cinemas aren't far behind. Your smaller options like Cinebistro aren't built to take this kind of hit for very long, either, so I think movie theaters are going to change quite a bit, if not be on the road to getting phased out altogether.
I don't know how economically feasible this is, but it wouldn't surprise me to see Universal, Warner Bros, or Disney just decide that they're either going to a) create their own streaming service and charge a monthly fee for anyone who wants to see their movies when they come out, or b) in Disney's case where you already have your own service, send your movies straight to the streaming service and hike up your monthly fee from where it is now. Depending on how long movie theaters are out of commission, or if your bigshots like AMC go out of business completely, that may be what they're forced to do.
Demand to see movies isn't going away. But where you watch them is probably about to change drastically.
April 23rd, 2020 at 10:01 AM ^
FWIW I read an economic impact report a couple of days ago and the question was asked "what industry is likely to never come back from the quarantine?"
The #1 answer, and it wasn't even close, was movie theaters. Everyone on the panel agreed they were toast.
April 23rd, 2020 at 10:17 AM ^
At the very least, it'll never be the same again. So many people out there don't want to spend $40 just to go see a movie, because for a couple's night out, that's around what it costs right now. And that's assuming you're just going to a place where all you're getting is popcorn, soda and candy. If you're going to a place like Cinebistro, you're easily coughing up close to $80-$100. Introduce alcohol into the mix, and the price goes up even higher.
I will be very curious to see how the movie industry responds to this. The movies themselves aren't going anywhere. The demand for that is still there, but I bet folks at Warner Bros. / Universal are already pitching the idea of making their own streaming service. People still want to see movies, but have nowhere to go to see them except home. I also bet you see a lot more A-list actors migrating over to Netflix, Prime, and HBO to make movies there. Those distributors have a huge opportunity to take more control of the market in the coming years.
Who knows? Maybe drive-ins make a huge comeback. For those who still want to "go out" to see a movie, you can more easily socially distance yourself in that environment.
See I think otherwise, with movies there's only about 60 - 100 people in the same room, if you stagger the showings then it will be fine.
Sporting events are different, I think there's going to be a huge drop off at sports venues, and some sports will even cease to exist.
There was already the argument that staying at home and watching a football game in 4k with replay, with food, was a better experience than going to a stadium... now even more so.
April 23rd, 2020 at 10:19 AM ^
I personally would rather stay in a hotel than an AirBNB after this. Hotels/chains can institute policies for cleaning/testing, etc. I trust that more than some random person cleaning up their place or hiring a housekeeper to do it.
Hotels never really seem that busy to me, take the stairs, passing a person or two in the hall is probably exposing you 1% more than you already are for whatever you are staying in the hotel for. Gyms and pools will likely remain closed for awhile.
Me for the next 18 months:
April 23rd, 2020 at 12:54 PM ^
Howard, is that you?
Just like it did before lockdown.
April 23rd, 2020 at 10:00 AM ^
There's absolutely no way to know at this point. COVID-19 could die out just like SARS did. SARS was a novel coronavirus with no vaccine and just died out after about 8 months. That could happen here and everything goes back to normal.
Other side of the coin, it could stick around until we have a vaccine or antibody treatment. Things likely won't be normal until one of those exist.
April 23rd, 2020 at 10:20 AM ^
I’d say the latter is far more likely at this point. SARS had fewer than 800 deaths total worldwide, and 5 months into this pandemic we’re at over 184,000 deaths. This thing is obviously far more widespread and serious than SARS.
April 23rd, 2020 at 10:24 AM ^
It is, but that does not mean that the COVID-19 coronavirus can't die off once it is contained.
April 23rd, 2020 at 10:01 AM ^
I hope drive-ins make a come back..... there's something about getting laid in field surrounded by strangers.
April 23rd, 2020 at 11:30 AM ^
The Ford / Wyoming drive in is still open in Detroit. Last movie I saw there was Pulp Fiction. Only got a BJ though, it was pretty crowded.
April 23rd, 2020 at 11:44 AM ^
I don't know if drive-ins are worth it. Last time I was at a drive-in I saw Pulp Fiction and was so distracted by a guy getting a BJ, I had to rent the movie later.
April 23rd, 2020 at 12:04 PM ^
You watching made it better.
April 23rd, 2020 at 12:40 PM ^
I wonder if his gf/wife was jealous.
I think it was Don Rickles or Rodney Dangerfied who had the old joke: My wife likes to talk to me during sex. Last night she called me from a motel across town.
April 23rd, 2020 at 12:55 PM ^
The last drive-in movie theater within 100 miles of where I live closed last year. Talk about bad timing, because drive-ins probably have a chance now.
How do you pay for a drive in movie? Is it by the car or the person?
I think it varies by location. I remember as a kid hiding in the back of the van so that I wouldn't get counted. (or at least joking about it.)
It was by the car the last time we went with the kids...many moons ago.
April 23rd, 2020 at 10:02 AM ^
It'll be interesting to see what the restaurant industry looks like in 6 months and 12 months. Places that had an advantage in delivery/take out service are mostly doing ok right now. The joints that closed temporarily because they didn't see an easy transition to carry out are going to have issues because dining room sales are going to lag for a while due to social distancing and the cancellation of sporting events, theater shows, and other events which draw crowds and drive restaurant sales. The interesting thing is the stay at home order has been really bad for some establishments but once that is lifted it is pretty likely that the demand will be way down and overall it will be worse for the industry as a whole as the places that were treading water are going to see sales dip further.
April 23rd, 2020 at 10:41 AM ^
The hotel industry is going to be right there. Do you go down and sit in the breakfast area? How much time will they spend disinfecting you room before you go in it? Is Microban going to be in your suitcase?what other changes will you make? My job requires a lot of planning, now there is going to more. Do you use the hotel laundry? What about the elevator?
April 23rd, 2020 at 10:43 AM ^
Being a Vegas junkie, I often wonder what the Strip will look like when this is over. I have to think that a lot of non-corporate owned casinos, bars, clubs, hotels, will close. Even the big corporations will probably be picking and choosing which operations to shutter. The real estate market will probably take a big hit there, again.
April 23rd, 2020 at 10:58 AM ^
There will be a pent-up demand at least early on to do "something" different, but it won't be a gargantuan turn of events in terms of people rushing back to large social events. It's pretty clear at this point that the vast majority of the population hasn't been exposed to the disease and, thus, doesn't have any natural defenses against it. Antibody testing is still ongoing, but everything I've read puts it under 5% of the population. So if a bunch of people hang out together and there are carriers there, it's likely we'll see another spike.
I'm more interested in seeing how states handle schools and summer programs. About 40% of the working population has kids who need some supervision during the day. Lots of families are being squeezed already and no rebound economically or socially can likely occur until we've figured that part out. Other countries seem to have a plane on that front but I haven't seen the US trot one out.
April 23rd, 2020 at 11:43 AM ^
My daughter is 4 and desperately needs to return to a structured school environment.
Wife had to self-furlough to stay home with her since I hold the benefits. Daughter is supposed to start kindergarten this Fall but that could be in doubt. I’m working but feel like I’m just waiting my turn to get infected. I just want to get it and move forward.
April 23rd, 2020 at 11:44 AM ^
I don't see large crowds being allowed to single events for another 1 to 2 more years. Unless college football can play in empty stadiums, we will not have a season this fall. The only problem is that college football players live on or close to campus and some campuses will be closed this fall, while others may be open. The NFL can keep their players relatively isolated and play in empty stadiums, so I think the 2020 NFL season occur. Forget about large concerts. Eventually (faster in R governor states than D governor states) non-essential retail stores, restaurants and bars will reopen with wide spacing.
April 23rd, 2020 at 12:23 PM ^
It's going to be Armageddon for the restaurant business. Obviously tons will open when this is over because its not like people's desire to eat out will permanently disappear, but very few places will be able to survive being shut down and not being able to be full when we hit that phase.
April 23rd, 2020 at 12:44 PM ^
I don’t think we will be going for the three concerts we have tickets for in August-October. I won’t be going out to eat—then again, I have less motivation as someone with autoimmune dietary restrictions that have taken away so many of my food loves.
As for society, it really does depend on testing and tracing and treatment improvements. Any of our hypotheticals need to start with the focused, dedicated, honest implementation of a plan—which is not happening consistently across the nation due to “economic” fears being prioritized over both the realities of biology and healthcare system fears.
As someone that worked in restaurants to get spending money in high school and college (salad and sandwich chef at The Cottage Inn), I really want to find a way to help keep my favorite restaurants open. Waiters and others work for less than minimum wage, so they make a living on tips. Even in good times, anything that slows down business is a problem. We've been doing take-out dinners on Fridays and Saturdays for the restaurants making a go if it for now. I'm hoping the National Restaurant Association is helping to develop some concepts and standards for restaurants to help them with reopening. Haven't heard anything about that, so maybe nothing is happening there. We have a favorite northern Italian cuisine restaurant that's mid-size. When/if they reopen, we'll go to see if the experience looks workable and move on from there.
I actually work at the restaurant association, and this reopening guidance is currently being developed, in conjunction with public health experts. The industry will likely look different, but it will be back.