What Does Travel/Entertainment/Dining Out Look Like in the Near Future?
I know we've been talking about being able to attend sporting events quite a bit, but I've been thinking about and talking to a lot of friends/colleagues about the wider implications of the ability/inability to gather in large crowds...right now and in the future.
What does the entire travel, entertainment, restaurant, event, convention/conference, etc. segment look like over the coming 6-18 months?
I'm admittedly falling in the camp that sees this as a very dire situation.
My family is well above average when it comes to the level of participation in these categories. Love to eat out. Attend a lot of concerts and music festivals. Go to movies. Travel quite a bit. See plays and other shows. Charitable events. Business trips/conventions. Been on the bar/bat mitzvah circuit for about ten years. Etc. I see our participation in all of these activities remaining very low for the next 6-18 months, regardless of any policy changes.
Let's isolate the restaurant category for a moment. Anyone who knows anything about restaurant economics will tell you that instituting social distancing by spreading out/eliminating tables and shutting down/limiting bar areas will kill a restaurant's ability to make a profit. Plus, how comfortable will people be going to a restaurant...even with social distancing and enhanced cleaning measures? How will the entire experience be degraded when everyone is in masks, everyone has to keep a distance from one another, etc?
Or, travel. A good friend of mine lives in Chicago, and I mentioned to him during a conversation earlier this week that Chicago (we live in Metro Detroit) would probably be among the best travel destinations for us...given that it's close and we can drive there. Then we started talking about the issues with staying in a hotel, being able to go to museums and other places where people congregate, whether our favorite restaurants/bars would be open, etc. Even being able to walk around on sidewalks in crowded areas. These issues make the prospect of any travel much less appealing. Not to mention if you are away from home and a new stay-at-home order is issued.
What say you? Are you going to be reluctant to engage in eating out, going to events, traveling, etc...even if the restrictions/limitations on doing so are lifted?
Do you think these categories are going to be irreperably harmed by the fall-out from coronavirus and the long-term implications of social distancing, increased costs due to cleaning, etc?
Hoping this won't become a political debate. Just interested in everone's thoughts on how their habits might change...and the impact on these categories of business.
It won’t be as bad as the doomsayers say, nor will it be as fine as the Pollyannas say.
This is usually the case. Events rarely follow the best or worst case scenarios.
My flux capacitor tells me that he future won't be much different than 6 months ago.
April 23rd, 2020 at 10:30 AM ^
Did your flux capacitor see everyone wearing masks? I think that is the best way to get closer to the old normal while reducing the risk of catching the virus to a point where it’s manageable by our healthcare system.
You clearly arent paying close attention to what's been happening
Buckle up
I hope it gets us to Rocky Mountain National Park in the middle of July and the Superior Hiking Trail in the middle of September with the grandsons and our little camper...we've had reservations for both places since last Fall.
Nice humblebrag
I knew this would be one of the responses. You get the benefit of being the first one and thus get all of the upvotes!
I would have to imagine that I'm not the only person on a board filled with Michigan grads and professionals who has the means to travel and enjoy restaurants, shows, etc...but I guess I set myself up for the "nice humblebrag" comments...so kudos to you!
Is that the rarely seen double humble brag? Joking of course!
When one humblebrags, one should also humblebrag about humblebragging.
April 23rd, 2020 at 11:41 AM ^
Clearly you are a lawyer.
April 23rd, 2020 at 12:23 PM ^
Clearly, I'm not.
April 23rd, 2020 at 11:41 AM ^
Double post. Nothing to see here. Move on...
Restaurants will be in deep shit for a while, until we have some kind of better treatment options. However, while it will look much different coming out of this, the industry has been around for a long time, and has gone through more than a few crises. Many favorites will close for good, a few will survive, and new ones will open on the backside.
Restaurants are a very good example of basic supply and demand. Supply (seats) will go down, demand will stay the same, price will go up. If restaurants can't profit, they will close, supply will go down even more, remaining restaurants will begin to profit.
Restaurants also have lunch/dinner peaks. I can see a lot more places trying to offer happy/off hour incentives in order to level out their customer rates. Carry-out/delivery orders will probably remain at way higher rates than they were before the pandemic.
Hopefully if some social distancing efforts remain forever (we should never be shaking hands again, contactless things where possible, etc.), flu and common cold rates will drop significantly and those lives saved can help offset lives lost due to COVID-19 or future contagious diseases.
April 23rd, 2020 at 10:27 AM ^
Is demand for eating out really going to be the same? Lots of people are going to be avoiding masses.
April 23rd, 2020 at 10:39 AM ^
People are habitual. I think it returns, and there will be a spike in demand when the first re-open.
Think about all the people complaining for barbers to open back up. People are making fun of the protesters, but as soon as they open, those same people will flood there. If people are willing to willing to go let someone grope their head for 15 minutes 30 seconds after they just groped someone else's head for 15 minutes... they'll be going out to eat again once it's allowed too.
It takes 30 days to break a habit. We've been ot of restaurants for longer than that. I think many (still working) people are looking at their checking accounts at the end of the pay period and seeing more money left over since all the "entertainment" isn't available anymore. They're realizing that those frivolous spending habits leave them living paycheck-to-paycheck.
It's been discussed where I work. A number of the people still working in the office (7 of 22) are vowing to cut back on discretionary spending and pay down consumer debt even after things open up. This was an organic conversation where people offered that they had already come to this conclusion on their own. No one was jumping on the office bandwagon.
April 24th, 2020 at 12:14 AM ^
Not everyone is a coward like you.
I have a fishing trip in july we do every year and all the camps in canada are feeling pretty good about the border opening up mid may which is what it is scheduled for.
Then past that it is all about letting us leave the state.. i am not concerned unless the border stays closed thru June..
I was planning on some stuff in Michigan over the summer. That's going to be by ear now. But I've got a nice cruise planned for Christmas, that although I'm in no hurry to pay anything more than the deposit on it until I have to, I'm still planning on going.
I'm looking forward to Pei Wei opening up. Assuming they do.
I'm not a social butterfly, so my life hasn't really changed that much other than losing the commute every day and having to meet people at work in person. I'm irritated my state closed it's state parks.
You couldn't pay me to go on a cruise. But then, I never really liked them even before this.
The restaurant industry has always had high turnover, so I'd predict it will be able bounce back quickly when people feel safe going. Same goes for many of the other event types you listed, when people feel safe, they'll ramp up pretty quickly.
So the next question is when will people feel safe? Not until we have a proven reliable treatment or vaccine. We can always hope for a breakthrough, but rational voices seem to suggest we should feel grateful if that arrives sometime in 2021.
I'm not going to be doing as much of that stuff as I used to until there is some kind of handle on the situation - treatment, vaccine, something like that. Even with treatment, I hate being sick and the symptoms look horrible and not something I am willing to endure if I can avoid it. That said, it all depends on how the situation evolves; if, with herd immunity or vaccine or whatever else may happen, it comes under control (like the flu - not comparing the two as diseases, just their impact on my life every year), I'll gradually go back out into the world. I always stayed away from sick people, wash my hands, don't touch my face, even before covid.
Zero chance I’m not at the bar the minute the order is lifted.
Less future prediction and more current observations
Had tickets to see Hamilton in June and yesterday it was rescheduled for Feb. 2022. Any kind of show like that can't just be delayed a few weeks/months because other shows were already scheduled behind it so it goes to the back of the line.
There's also a big beach volleyball tournament I usually play in each summer near Philly, it hasn't been canceled yet but it's only got to be a matter of time.
For travel originally I was supposed to fly for several bachelor parties/weddings/birthdays this year. Obviously not traveling right now as the earliest events are just being postponed or outright cancelled. But the OP makes a good point, even when traveling is appropriate what will a social distancing birthday look like, is it worth traveling for, and what are you able to do when you get there? Luckily the airlines are as helpful as I've ever seen them offering full refunds or some airlines giving you additional credit if you opt to reschedule your flight with them. I've actually been taking the latter option and booking as many flights as I need for this year since prices are so low and gambling that any airline credit I amass I'll be able to use within a year.
Hamilton doesn't go to the back of the line. Somebody else gets bumped. (but otherwise you are correct.)
I’m guessing Hamilton does get bumped. There are contracts for those shows that are scheduled. If the venue cancels, they would likely be on the hook for the costs.
April 23rd, 2020 at 10:04 AM ^
Sorry I should have specified I'm not talking about Hamilton in NYC. I'm sure it will continue printing money on Broadway as soon as it safely can. This was a limited time run in DFW and I can confirm it got moved to the back of the line. Link? Link. https://www.dallasnews.com/arts-entertainment/performing-arts/2020/04/22/hamilton-in-fort-worth-has-been-postponed-all-the-way-to-2022/
I've accepted that I won't be doing much of anything until there's a vaccine or an effective antiviral drug available.
We've already canceled our 2020 travel plans and I'm not rescheduling them anytime soon. Getting on an airplane sound like a particularly bad idea.
Basically any industry that depends on large numbers of people being in the same place at the same time are screwed for the short to medium term at least.
Even if the waitress is wearing a mask, you can't eat with one on. And restaurants generally don't provide employees with health insurance or paid sick leave.
For some reason I have more empathy for waiters and waitresses than any other group. Generally speaking they are hard working people who do "ok" but not "great" and probably aren't sitting on a pile of cash for a rainy day. Then this happens and their income goes to $0 with virtually no notice, they don't qualify for unemployment insurance commensurate with what they made before and they can't find another job in the same field.
All that and I bet the restaurant industry gets totally destroyed by the virus. Many people won't have money to eat out, they don't want to risk getting the virus and they may have found they enjoy eating in (my situation).
Very tough on the restaurant workers.
April 23rd, 2020 at 10:25 AM ^
I think restaurant workers may have qualified for the additional $600 per week in unemployment. There was a restaurant owner crying about his staff making less than that wanting to be laid off. Guy was a dick.
Yes, definitely this. I'm in a similar industry (hospitality), and we're in a pretty weird spot as well. I can get unemployment, thankfully, but we just got some bailout money and I guess have to spend 75% of it on payroll, which creates a very weird situation where they're paying us to come in, but obviously there's nothing to do because no one is traveling now.
Honestly, I'm in favor of ending a lockdown as quickly as possible, but I can also see it as an excuse to end support to businesses and people in certain industries that just aren't coming back quickly one way or another (travel, hospitality, dining out).
I worked in sales for the travel industry (yeah, talk about OOF) before this all hit. Needless to say, I along with many of my colleagues were laid off as a result of covid. Honestly, I think travel is going to be fucked for a while. My old company had over 400 large, money-making clients on January 1st and had fewer than 40 by April 1st. Wouldn’t shock me if they went under by the time this was all said and done.
What is your best guess on when group tours (by bus and plane) will get started again?
April 23rd, 2020 at 11:00 PM ^
Honestly man, I have no idea. Just so much uncertainty and unknown variables. I’d imagine that even if the 10 person rule gets rolled back to say, 50, they’ll still be fucked. For many of these businesses, a large percentage of their ticket sales and bookings come from targeting travelers outside of their location and less so with the local markets. I can’t imagine there will be too much of that going on for a while as people will likely just be too scared to travel and congregate in very large groups for a while. Unfortunately, many of these companies simply won’t be able to have a season this year and many will likely close shut down for good when it’s all said and done, like many other small businesses in other industries :(
It looks like my backyard.
That's what I'm thinking, too.
I personally don't do much of those things. I'm like rain man. I go to work, hit the gym, & come home. A few times a week I grocery shop. On the weekends I may go to dinner/drinks, movies, etc. once every 2-3 weeks. For the most part it's just a workout, taking my dogs out for some exercising, and at home with the fiancee. I don't have kids and don't them. My parents and brother live 2 hours away. My extended family are in different states. My closest friends also live in different states. I don't like traveling because it takes me away from the gym and makes eating healthy much more challenging, and I'm not a big fan of sleeping places other than in my own bed. I prefer to watch movies at home. I actually prefer to watch football at home too so I can see more of what's actually happening. But, the gym is probably in a similar boat as entertainment, but you can probably distance a bit easier.
Do you workout, bro?
April 23rd, 2020 at 10:21 AM ^
Gyms will be interesting. While you may be able to social distance, it is a place where it is likely particularly difficult to keep everything people are continuously touching well sanitized. While people make some effort to wipe down machines and equipment and I’m sure they will do better because of this, any kind of circuit training would get really slowed down. Also, there is lots of heavy breathing and thus aerosols will get sent even further. Will be interesting to see what that all does to gyms bottom lines and if they can survive. I suspect there will be many people buying more home exercise equipment in lieu of going to the gym.
April 23rd, 2020 at 10:41 AM ^
While you may be able to social distance, it is a place where it is likely particularly difficult to keep everything people are continuously touching well sanitized. While people make some effort to wipe down machines and equipment and I’m sure they will do better because of this, any kind of circuit training would get really slowed down. Also, there is lots of heavy breathing and thus aerosols will get sent even further.
Agreed, I'm surprised it was on Phase One of the updated plans, but I'm happy it was. I'm guessing there is some politics and lobbying at play there.
I suspect there will be many people buying more home exercise equipment in lieu of going to the gym.
Many people already are and gym equipment is getting more expensive. I'm not a stay at home gym lifter though. Lifting is my passion, so prefer the variety of equipment that can be found at a commercial gym. I may only use a 20 lbs dumbbell at times for small muscle group high rep training, but I also may use 100 lbs dumbbell at times for bench pressing. Trying to have that many DBs at a home gym would be unrealistic for me and that's just one example.
April 23rd, 2020 at 12:01 PM ^
I already had bumpers, squat stands, barbell, bench press, kbs, and trap bar. However, I had been going to a gym for the last 4 years because I enjoyed the social part of it. I started training my HS freshman the last 4 months at home using this equipment. Since quarantine, we started training together. I really don't think I'll go back to the gym. I'm enjoying the home workouts with my son more than the social part of the gym.
I think it's great you're able to do so and enjoy it and spend some quality time with your son in such a productive way. It also sounds like you guys are probably doing a bit more "functional" and/or athletic oriented stuff which is appropriate for a HS kid that probably plays sports? While I also like to bench, squat, DL, Oly lift, etc, I tend to be a bit more bodybuilding-style focused which requires a bit more variety of equipment & exercises. I can get by and get a training effect at home with minimal equipment, but it's not optimal for building your physique when you're limited with how many movements you can do. And, as someone who's at home most of the time already, outside of work the gym is the main way I get out of the house. I enjoy that time away to do my thing and be a bit of a meathead for a few hours as silly as it may sound.
April 23rd, 2020 at 11:19 AM ^
coming from a very large and popular gym, fuck all the circuit trainers. /rant
April 23rd, 2020 at 10:46 AM ^
Yeah bro, do you even lift?
I hope your downvotes aren't indirect lifestyle comments. Sometimes ordered, uncomplicated lives are just the ticket.
Yeah, who knows why folks DV things. Although I am educated, have a graduate degree, and am a teacher, I've always been a jock. I'm a strength coach teaching HS PE after all! But, my lifestyle through college was always school and either a sports season or training for the upcoming one. Now, work just replaced school and lifting replaced a sports practice/game. But, I've always found a structured schedule that revolves around physical activity something that grounds me. Anyways, outside the scope of UM sports fandom I get the feeling I'm a little different than the average MGoBlogger. I don't think that's a bad thing, but it probably means more DVs at times due to a minority opinion.
it may be hard for restaurants to figure it out financially. But doesn’t it make sense that they’re better off being half full than completely closed? Or is that just delaying the inevitable? I would assume you’d have roughly half the staff (maybe more like 60%) than you would if usually full.
I think venues are going to have a huge problem. How to stadiums and concert venues survive this? There’s no way they can survive half-full, is there? Theme parks like Disney world or Universal should be ok, but they may be kept afloat by the rest of the company’s operations.
But doesn’t it make sense that they’re better off being half full than completely closed? Or is that just delaying the inevitable?
I took a business class that went into this calculation. Basically if you know you're going under but your revenue can cover all of your soft costs and some of your fixed liabilities you should stay open until you can get out of the liabilities. Otherwise just close now. That was 20 years ago but I think that was the gist of it.
The problem is that when you go to $0 revenue for a period it's hard to predict what it will look like after a restart.