Week 1 Betting guide (and season tips)
Week zero is in the books and thank god I kept my money on the side lines. Week 1 is up for most of the lines. A couple of tips as you slowly lose all your cash throughout the season. Its ok to be honest its like a reverse mutual fund that loses 10% a week. Anyway we are here to have fun with some spendable cash so my number one tip is to break your money into a minimum of 10 units. Never bet more than one unit on a game. If your 3 picks are that much better than the others then bet only those 3 units that week. Dont let one bounce of an oblong ball determine or end your season.
Overs (yes this is dicey with the rule changes but these have a good amount of cushion)
***South Alabama/Tulane 51.5*** PICK OF THE WEEK (I must be missing something here as both teams are projected to score well over 30ppg?)
BC - Northern Illinois 50.5 (looks like NIU will be in several 60 point games this year this should be one of them)
Tenn-Virginia 56 (Is Virginia good for a field goal?)
La Tech/SMU 66 (Its a tricky total but this may be the most either team scores this year)
Buffalo/Wisc 54.5 (Wisconsin goes for 55)
Unders (Will the clock rules give us a little breathing room?)
Utah St/Iowa 45 (Imagine last years Iowa offense but on the other side. Iowa is going to need about 42 points to put this over)
Vtech/ODU 47.5 (New clock rules with one team that doesnt want to score and another that cant score -yes please)
Moneyline (take that extra cash and let the home crowd lead you to glory)
North Texas (the over is tempting here at 54.5 I just worry about Cal doing its part)
Hawaii (Stanford is BAAAAAD - question is how BAD?)
Spread
Texas A and M -38.5 vs New Mexico (Should be covered by half time and you know they will want to run it up)
Army -10 at Louisiana Monroe (ULM may be one of the worst teams in FBS this year will average giving up around 7 tds a game)
Louisville -7.5 at Gtech (Again Gtech will be a brutal team giving up nearly 30ppg this season. Brohm also knows how to score against solid defenses and this aint it)
BYU -19.5 vs Sam Houston St (This may be covered in the first quarter and Im being serious. Northwestern might beat this team by 35)
August 30th, 2023 at 3:26 PM ^
I bet we will butt heads with Peacock
August 30th, 2023 at 3:28 PM ^
Im already there. $2.50 out of pocket and im already pissed. Im old and grumpy and want UM football to uncut the cable.
August 30th, 2023 at 3:30 PM ^
Post your results Sunday.
FWIW I like Indiana getting 30.5 at home against OSU. Bucks breaking in a new QB described by his HC as "consistent" makes me think they'll struggle, Marvin Harrison and all, to score a ton of points. Even against Indiana.
August 30th, 2023 at 3:35 PM ^
Hoosiers are a tire fire. Bucs will run in 6 TD's.
August 30th, 2023 at 3:42 PM ^
I wonder what the Bucs run game and OL will actually look like this season.
It would be quite unlikely for the Hoosiers to find magic in a bottle - it's possible - but, unlikely.
Oh - six rushing TDs? I don't think so - but, I could see six TDs through the air. A short pass - and a long run after catch finishing in the end zone.
August 30th, 2023 at 3:37 PM ^
I could be there with you if:
-Indiana's secondary wasnt the (projected) worst secondary of the BigTen by over 30 yards per game
-Indiana is looking to give up over 33ppg with Indiana st., Rutgers, Akron, and MSU as 25% of its schedule. Yikes!
55-10 with a pass/incompletion happy Indiana team.
This may be OSU's fools gold as the season goes along.
August 30th, 2023 at 6:57 PM ^
only if I win...
August 30th, 2023 at 3:44 PM ^
if you plan to do this weekly, why dont you capture in a table and show weekly how you did post-games? would be interesting to see if its better to flip a coin or follow advice?
Also, if you're really bored, you could take all the suppositions from everyone below and add a column for predictor and track their record over time to see who really knows whats up.
August 30th, 2023 at 3:50 PM ^
Im laying down $10 bets. Trust me im nothing special but it is fun to talk some football with Mgoblog friends. Would love to have a lovely assistant track all this though Tesla! ;-)
Edit: Lets do this Tesla (Week 1)
13 units bet with Hawaii paying 1.75 units and North Texas paying 2 units.
August 30th, 2023 at 5:07 PM ^
im not mad at it, just fun to track over time. I find it tedious enough, quite honestly, filling out the damn 1201 South Main pickem - both against the spread, and then with probabilities. my f'ing god. for me, it becomes an epic crapshoot with those variables in that pool. Makes more sense to pick straight up and then assign confidence.
August 30th, 2023 at 5:37 PM ^
Just do spread top to bottom and be done. I hate confidence rankings with the power of a million suns. Turns a 5 minute project into a one week and im out thing.
August 30th, 2023 at 6:38 PM ^
Hey Tesla,
Elon is playing at Wake Forest tomorrow. Personally, I think this isn't a time to bet on Elon.
August 30th, 2023 at 3:51 PM ^
Didn't you have an awesome record last year?
I appreciated it, you made me some money last season.
August 30th, 2023 at 4:41 PM ^
Yeah I turned $200 in $264 by years end. Lol
My main problem is I dropped $100 on one game that went super wonky and it killed most of my funds late in the year. Im sticking to my units this year. As you win your units grow in $$ amount.
Save your money for Wisconsin moneyline vs OSU. My best chance to lose all my money in one game!
August 30th, 2023 at 6:34 PM ^
Save your money for Wisconsin moneyline vs OSU. My best chance to lose all my money in one game!
Ha. I love it as you state, "I'm sticking to my units this year."
August 30th, 2023 at 6:40 PM ^
I want be good this year @Glory I really do. Watching that QB toast that secondary is going to be so tasty though.
August 30th, 2023 at 7:02 PM ^
I'm with you and I encourage this behavior. I'm in as long I can make it that far.
August 30th, 2023 at 4:18 PM ^
I understand Iowa O is a punch line and for good reason. But with the 25 ppg quota it feels like they'll do their best to run it up against the cupcakes. Obviously if Cade can't go then I'll feel differently. But if he does then I'll take over 33 for Iowa.
The Tulane o/u is off the board at Bovada, not sure why that would be. I'll throw a few bucks on the over overs you mentioned.
Last weekend I correctly picked ND on a few bets. Unfortunately Vandy was up 21 then gave up 14 points to Hawaii for a terrible backdoor beat, had Vaney at -8.5 on a teaser with ND. First of many backdoor beats to come this season.
I also had USC -20.5 1st half, unfortunately they gave up a TD or they would have covered as they did put up 21. I have a feeling I will not be trusting USC's D again the rest of the season.
Here's a 6-point teaser bet I like for tomorrow night:
Minnesota -.5 and over 36.5 vs Nebraska. I am a big fan of teasing a TD favorite down to a picked, along with either the over/under. I did the same thing for the Chiefs vs. Lions week 1.
Also 8-point teaser bet tomorrow for Utah +3.5 and over 36 vs Florida, who I think should really suck.
August 30th, 2023 at 5:39 PM ^
Unless you think Iowa will put up over 45 that under is there for you. Utah St isnt scoring.
August 30th, 2023 at 4:33 PM ^
I'm in Texas, the state that hates freedom and can't bet :(
Anybody know any tricks? A few years ago, I tried a VPN, but that did not work at all.
August 30th, 2023 at 7:25 PM ^
I've heard in Iowa they just get someone to bet for them...
August 30th, 2023 at 8:09 PM ^
I don't think Bovada cares where you are too much.
August 31st, 2023 at 2:28 PM ^
I've tried them in the past and they basically require bitcoin to signup.
August 30th, 2023 at 4:41 PM ^
Not a big gambler but if I were I'd bet my max on Rutgers to cover. Northwestern is at a low of all time lows. I don't see how they can be ready.
August 30th, 2023 at 4:46 PM ^
I feel like over 51.5 for Michigan with both our safeties out looks good.
August 30th, 2023 at 6:25 PM ^
We have depth. With the new rules change, I'm hesitant on any over bets until we have some data on the delta.
August 30th, 2023 at 6:42 PM ^
Very smart indeed. I only am picking overs with 10 pt gap in my projections. The unders feel like really solid bets this week,
August 30th, 2023 at 7:26 PM ^
USC smashed the over 66.5 last weekend for me!
August 30th, 2023 at 10:45 PM ^
Their defense did almost as much as their offense. San Jose State did some damage.
August 30th, 2023 at 6:50 PM ^
Got a feeling Will Johnsons sits as well. Nothing too much to worry about but much more chance of a slip up for sure.
August 30th, 2023 at 5:00 PM ^
My approach - take MSU not to cover every game - for $5.
August 30th, 2023 at 5:15 PM ^
I've got LSU -2.5 and Utah -6.5. Was checking out Wiscy but need to see them play a game with thier new philosophy on offense first.
August 30th, 2023 at 5:44 PM ^
If that offense is lights out the lines will be adjusted accordingly. Probably have 1 week of the old Wisconsin factor in your favor.
August 30th, 2023 at 5:16 PM ^
my number one tip is to break your money into a minimum of 10 units. Never bet more than one unit on a game.
This seems good in theory. After over-serving myself with adult beverages and few losses, I tend to go for the kill..my version of the Martingale strategy. Quick death or big hit. Makes sense to me. LOL
August 30th, 2023 at 5:45 PM ^
Its always been theory for me. This season I am sticking to it as its been my downfall for years.
August 30th, 2023 at 6:10 PM ^
Zebras don't change their stripes. Accept your downfall and enjoy the process :) Much less anxiety.
August 30th, 2023 at 6:43 PM ^
Your name is checking out!!! Be my voice of reason this year. If I start yapping about mulitple units shut that shit down!
August 30th, 2023 at 7:09 PM ^
I'm not qualified as I would encourage and root for you!
August 30th, 2023 at 5:26 PM ^
Utah -6.5 hosting UF
YTM - 16.5 hosting NTM
Gophers - 7 hosting Rhule
Utah St @ Iowa Under 43 (can't help myself)
Purdue -3.5 hosting Fresno State
August 30th, 2023 at 5:48 PM ^
I like Utah, YTM, Iowa under, not so sure about Purdue.
Pretty solid line up though. Is Purdue going to bring it on offense this year? Im not so sure. Id probably take Fresno moneyline if I had to pick.
We should have a fun Sunday recap for sure.
August 31st, 2023 at 11:34 AM ^
I bet Utah on the ML - but they scare me a little without their starting QB
August 31st, 2023 at 4:54 PM ^
My Purdue pick is mostly based on blind faith in Ryan Walters to put together a solid team.
August 30th, 2023 at 8:12 PM ^
Louisville is Smooth Jimmy's Lock of the Week!
August 30th, 2023 at 10:46 PM ^
I like it. Louisville doesnt need to do a whole lot to cover.
August 30th, 2023 at 8:26 PM ^
I’ve had pretty good success following some sharp bettors. If people are actually looking for some analytics you can always check out Bill Connelly’s Twitter for his S and P numbers - Vegas has caught up to him with the spread, but there’s still value to be found in the O/U.
Ed Feng also puts out numbers, both for free and paid. The paid subscription is like 99$ annually which isn’t bad at all compared to other touts.
August 30th, 2023 at 10:49 PM ^
Share some picks LB. I want to know who you like this weekend.
August 30th, 2023 at 11:07 PM ^
I know I'll get flack for this, but east carolina +36 looks good. I know they lost a lot from last year, but this isn't Hawaii or Uconn. Even if I am wrong I still feel ok because Michigan is really that good.
August 31st, 2023 at 12:31 AM ^
This isn't far fetched at all. Covering +36 is a big ask given the new rules. That said, I wouldn't advise it. Rooting against your team to not score just to cover the spread is never fun (no matter what the score is). Not worth it.
August 31st, 2023 at 1:30 AM ^
East Carolina vs Sam Houston St would be a bloodbath.
We are only favored by 2 pts less than Texas A and M.
These lines are jacked and we may sit 3 players in the secondary (please dont panic that is a big maybe)
East Carolina is coached too well for that kind of spread +the new clock rules+ our love of the run
No thank you!
August 31st, 2023 at 7:37 AM ^
I think ECU +36 is a pretty good bet.
UM will likely be more adversely impacted by the new clock rules than most teams as they generally grind out many first downs on their drives which will no longer stop the clock. Add in UM's penchant for glacial play calling/snapping of the ball, all while the game clock will be running after a first down, and I expect to see a pretty steep drop in the number of plays Michigan will run on offense this season. Fewer plays equals fewer points equals really hard to cover big spreads.