The way-too-early top 25 for 2016
Saturday Down South has come out with its "Way too early Top 25 for 2016". There are some interesting observations, and some that are headscratching.
http://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/way-early-top-25-2016/
- The top 4 looks like the current CFP, with the exception of Ohio substituted for Sparty.
- Alabama is back again at #3, but they lose Derrick Henry and don't really have an heir apparent at QB.
- Regarding Ohio #4, " This is J.T, Barrett's team. Outside of Alabama, no team will lose more talent to the NFL." Yet they always manage to be in the hunt with Urbie. I just don't think one player can carry an entire team.
- Oregon is at #7. They have the same problem next year as they did this year...a new starting QB, whether it be Dakota Prukop or Taylor Alie.
- Sparty is #8, which is the biggest surprise. They lose Cook, Burbridge, Calhoun, Heath, Allen, Clark, and possibly Conklin, although the article claims "Michigan State returns what should be one of the best offensive lines in college football."
- Tennessee is a Top 10 team. Butch Jones apparently has turned things around.
Michigan is #12, which is almost where we are right now. One would think that with mostly everyone returning, and O'Korn likely to take over the reins at QB, that we would be higher ranked than 12. Thinking we should be where Sparty is, but perhaps our future LB play has us in the right place.
The best part of the article was: "There shouldn't be much separation between Michigan, Michigan State, and Ohio State by next season."
BTW, this is my first Forum entry on the Board.
December 14th, 2015 at 11:49 PM ^
December 15th, 2015 at 8:02 AM ^
The problem is, MSU doesn't ever lose, so you can't really rank them outside the top 10 - frankly I think they should be ranked higher, because they don't lose.
It sucks, and I hate it, but it's reality.
December 15th, 2015 at 8:52 AM ^
I don't think you're allowed to say that here....
December 15th, 2015 at 9:22 AM ^
December 15th, 2015 at 2:12 PM ^
I don't like my opinion of MSU but at this point, it's well established that they win more consistently than just about everyone else in the country.
December 15th, 2015 at 4:30 PM ^
Were you born 6 years ago? If so this perspective makes sense. Otherwise you are commenting on a strong 6-year run that does not guarantee long term success.
December 15th, 2015 at 9:27 AM ^
They have to break in a new QB at ND and as much as I hate to say it, the Irish should be good next year. And their bye week is between Game 1 (Furman!) and Game 2 (ND). With a harder conference schedule next year, they'll be good next year, but more likely it will be a 9-3, 8-4 type of season.
December 15th, 2015 at 1:29 PM ^
what you did here...
December 15th, 2015 at 12:48 PM ^
like in the OSU Game...? or were you doing schtick?
December 15th, 2015 at 4:07 PM ^
is what he's referring to, I think. They went 6-6 (3-5) in 2012 the season after Cousins graduated and before Cook took over. Next year is probably going to be different of course, as they have some upperclassmen who are somewhat proven taking over. Bigger question will be whether Conklin leaves and how big or little the o line is affected by Allen, Clark and maybe Conklin leaving.
December 15th, 2015 at 4:26 PM ^
December 15th, 2015 at 1:03 PM ^
UM not #1 overall, list is invalid.
December 14th, 2015 at 11:49 PM ^
December 14th, 2015 at 11:58 PM ^
Going to Norman isn't going to be easy. Back to back road games at Wisky and PSU could be tricky.
December 15th, 2015 at 12:01 PM ^
PSU shouldn't be anything special.
December 14th, 2015 at 11:58 PM ^
rational take.
December 15th, 2015 at 12:30 AM ^
They will be very young early and 90% chance of loss to an Oklahoma team that returns a lot on offense from my cursory glance but by mid Nov unfort all that youth will be experienced and they are now recruiting at Bama level - check out their last 3 classes (and 2017 - gulp). Just a matter of those guys getting experience... I do hope they lost 2-3 next year which fov them will feel like a 8 loss season....spoiled brats.
December 15th, 2015 at 1:05 AM ^
December 15th, 2015 at 4:02 PM ^
OSU still has Barrett, and while OU will have a big edge in experience they aren't going to just overwhelm OSU with superior athletes. I think OSU wins that game 2 or 3 times out of 10.
December 15th, 2015 at 10:22 PM ^
December 15th, 2015 at 12:00 AM ^
they have basically three games that make or break the season. If they don't win 1 out of msu, osu, or iowa, it's pretty much a failure of a season. if they don't win 1 out of msu or osu but beat iowa and go 10-2, it's pretty much the most hollow 10 win season ever.
December 15th, 2015 at 12:31 AM ^
Yep
Its a lot like MSUs season this year - Oregon, OSU, UM was their season. Ours will be OSU, MSU, Iowa.
The Qb should have a good 3 games to get his feet wet before we get to Wisconsin.
December 15th, 2015 at 6:57 AM ^
December 15th, 2015 at 8:02 AM ^
December 15th, 2015 at 8:50 AM ^
is relatively inconsequential for really good teams, of which we could be one next year. State won in the Big House and at the Shoe this year and they are not particularly good. When teams arrive at a point where the playoff is a realistic possibillity they should be able to win at home or on the road in equal measure.
December 15th, 2015 at 9:05 AM ^
People need to get over their road game PTSD. Rich Rod and Brady Hoke aren't coaching this team anymore.
December 15th, 2015 at 9:40 AM ^
We didn't play a very good game on the road all season. And whoever our QB is will be new (to us, at least).
But as long as none of our road games start after 3:30, I think we'll be fine until the OSU game. As long as you take a good defense and O-line with you, road games are not something to fret about.
December 15th, 2015 at 10:26 AM ^
December 15th, 2015 at 12:12 AM ^
I'm really interested in seeing who emerges from the B1G West, I wonder if Iowa, NW or Wisc will sustain, or if Nebraska and Minnesota make huge strides next year.
December 15th, 2015 at 12:35 AM ^
Iowa does appear to bring a lot back - will do more homework later in the winter. Wisc really missed Clement and will be in year 2 wwith a new head coach so should help them as well. Maybe they lose Aranda though as DC. :)
Neb will Neb - not a believer in riley and Minn will Minn. NW will be interesting to watch as Thorson will be in year 2 and they bring back a good portion of a good D.
But except for Iowa these all look like the 4th/5th place team in the East.
December 15th, 2015 at 6:34 AM ^
December 15th, 2015 at 12:12 AM ^
December 15th, 2015 at 12:15 AM ^
Wash St made huge strides this year, and so did Cal, if Oregon St improves in Andersen's 2nd year, the Pac 12 could make an argument for top-to-bottom the best league.
December 15th, 2015 at 12:23 AM ^
It'll be interesting to see how they transition to the new QB.
December 15th, 2015 at 9:15 AM ^
Viramontes ends up unfortunately. I'm excited to see him play, wish it was for the good guys
December 15th, 2015 at 12:28 AM ^
Yeah if Conklin leaves they lost a 2 time All American center, a 2 year starting guard and a 1st round left tackle so 3/5th of OL.
That is a lot of "respekt" for a team losing its winningest QB, its top 2 wrs, 2/5 to 3/5 OL, and 3/4 of DL. But based on 4 of 5 years winning a lot its a team a lot of people will pencil in to be top 10-15 until they prove otherwise. UM used to get that same "respekt" no matter who we lost in preseason polls so can't say much about it.
UM will be a question mark to outsiders due to QB more than anything in national eyes as they wont look that close at the LB situation etc. Everyone here is confident we'll find an answer (supposedly O'Korn) but its the most important position on the field and we have 1 guy with any long term starting experience and it was followed by a very bad year and then a lot of unknowns behind him.
December 15th, 2015 at 12:51 AM ^
I kinda think Dantonio has them at a level where a rebuilding year is 9-3ish. They aren't anywhere close to Bama/OSU recruiting levels but they're at a point where they develope kids pretty good, and it's just a matter of how long it takes the replacements to settle into their positions.
MSU's schedule is a good bit tougher next year. They have a pretty tough 7 game stretch at the beginning of the season. Beginning with week 2 they go: @ND, Wisconsin, @Indiana, BYU, Northwestern, @Maryland, Michigan. Not expecting much from the Terps and IU is a bit of a question mark, but Wilson seems to at least have a pretty good offense every year.
December 15th, 2015 at 9:22 AM ^
9-3 is far more likely the ceiling than the floor for MSU next year.
People forget that this MSU was in 6 games this year decided on the last drive, last play, or near last play. They were 5-1 in those games becauses of (1) a degree of luck, and (2) Cook made pinpoint accurate throws that made the difference in 4th quarters.
The point is (1) luck is not a strategy, and (2) with a QB just 10% less effective than Cook, MSU would have lost several of those close games.
Plus, they lose a lot on both lines, reeivers, etc., etc.
December 15th, 2015 at 12:05 PM ^
And then there is our running game. With the same OL, there should be some improvement and better talent at the RB position, but if our running game is not improved significantly, the offense will be largely one-dimensional. With a new QB, even with someone familar with the system, that won't help things.
It might have taken time for Rudock to learn the offense and become comfortable with his receivers, but Jake had four years of playing time before he got here. That is a luxury we won't have next year.
December 15th, 2015 at 12:41 AM ^
December 15th, 2015 at 12:50 AM ^
if Butt and Lewis come back, that's two returning 2nd team AA's. Chesson was turning into a star towards the end of the year and was 1st team All Big Ten. Defensively, you have Peppers and while there might not be any 'Bosa' types on the dline there are quite a few really good players.
December 15th, 2015 at 1:00 AM ^
True but no star rb, no star oline, no star lb, and replacing a qb and kickers. That says top 25, not top 10.
December 15th, 2015 at 1:11 AM ^
December 15th, 2015 at 1:19 AM ^
doesn't mean the same thing it used to mean before the Dark Ages
December 15th, 2015 at 7:19 AM ^
will be able to cover for the LB deficiencies.
Plus that strength may allow the DC to put less experienced but more athletic LBs on the field to do fewer things well.
Provided O'Korn (or whoever wins the QB job) is an asset, I think we're definitely a Top 10 team with our returning talent in Year 2 of their Harbaugh tutelage.
December 15th, 2015 at 1:23 AM ^
Tennessee in the top 10 is a joke. Their in the top 25 every year and then lose about five games.
December 15th, 2015 at 8:44 AM ^
Tennessee actually has a very manageable schedule next year, with their two toughest games (Florida and Alabama) at home, and Florida still won't have Grier back; as far as SEC schedules go, you couldn't ask for a better road slate (SC with Muschamp, Georgia in flux, TAMU is a mess, and Vandy hasn't been the same since Franklin left). Plus they get an early statement game against VT at Bristol to build momentum. They nearly beat two of the playoff teams this year, having late leads on both Bama and OU. I think they return a lot of the team, so I could easily see them in the top 10.
December 15th, 2015 at 8:49 AM ^
They are getting better. Their losses this year were all to decent teams and were close (Except for Arkansas). I can see them putting in a solid effort and winning or being in the close running for the SEC east next year.
December 15th, 2015 at 9:23 AM ^
And they would be except that Mike DeBord is their OC.
December 15th, 2015 at 3:33 PM ^
As a Wolverines fan living in Knoxville, I will tell you this statement could not be any more false. Tennessee is not a team that has been overrated....because everyone knew they were pretty bad. The last decade they have not been any good at all, but things started to turn around when Butch Jones (west Michigan native) got here. Last year, the Vols finally got back to a bowl game and beat Iowa. This year they went 8-4 and easily could have (should have) won 2 or 3 more of the games they lost . I believe inexperience cost them those games. Jones has put together top 10 recruiting classes the last two years. This Vols team is on a major upsung and should be a top 10 team. There is more talent on this Tennessee roster than there has been in more than a decade. I just hope Debord lets the offense play. Just watch....Tennessee will be pretty dang good next year.