WAY TOO EARLY line: OSU -4.5 vs us

Submitted by superstringer on

Vegas has OSU as a 4.5 favorite over us.  If the +3-for-home-team rule applies, that makes them -1.5 at a neutral site, and we'd be a 1.5 favorite in the Big House.  What's our reaction?

DisrespeKt?

Too early (can only talk about the championship game v Iowa)?

Have to beat MSU and OSU first before we can talk about betting lines?

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spider-sal

November 7th, 2016 at 5:58 PM ^

I'm pinning my on Speight having a monster game and we score a bunch of points to take the pressure off the defense. I'm liking the chances of that more and more now.

Joined: 10/18/2015

MGoPoints: 2055

HarbaughHarbaughBlue

November 7th, 2016 at 6:00 PM ^

Lewis on Brown, Peppers on Samuel or Stribling if Samuel is wide, McCray and Gedeon on Barrett and whoever that rb is cuz those r the only players they use on offense. At least one safety in the box every play unless its an obvious passing situation.

Joined: 10/31/2016

MGoPoints: 316

The Fan in Fargo

November 7th, 2016 at 8:20 PM ^

Cant have a safety on Samuels. If he is in the game and split out wide, some how have to get Lewis on him. Brown or that #80 doesn't worry me. They are going to throw the deck at Michigan with new plays and players that haven't had many touches. I bet they go for a ton of deep balls early too because that is their only chance. If Michigan gets up by two touchdowns, the sucknuts are fucked. They cant play from behind and the crowd will be taken out of it. If Michigan can get to Barrett and keep the pressure while taking away their deep ball, they are cooked. If Peppers spys Barrett  and gets some good pops on him, he'll check out of the game. Same goes with the blitzes and d-line. Must hammer his candy ass all day. If Samuels is kept from the edges when he motions across or is in the backfield, he won't like going inside. It's just not his game. Can he do it? Probably okay but I've stated before that I drive a Silverado and for me to jump in a Ferrari and just act like I know what I'm doing, I still cant do it. I'm not used to it. Gedeon and McCray so have to get their heads out of their asses that day. Suffocate the spread and the stinking basterads will fold. Plus they are a bunch of young guys so if the team comes out pumped and on top of their game firing on all cylinders, they'll handle the tree lovers. The key is to get momentum right away and strut into cbus with a cockiness and swag that they won't be able to stomach. The Michigan arrogance that they envy so bad can be their downfall. It would be a wise card for UM to play against them dumbasses. The team has to come to hit that day and I mean hit hard. They aren't a power team. They are fast little bitches. They can be beat down.

Joined: 09/04/2016

MGoPoints: 1877

Nickel

November 7th, 2016 at 6:04 PM ^

Seems about right.  OSU is talented but they've been sporadic.  Michigan has been blowing out people but the only road games have been Rutgers, which doesn't really count, and a reeling MSU team at noon.

Close enough that it's basically a coin-flip which is what I see when they match up.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 2737

markusr2007

November 7th, 2016 at 6:06 PM ^

You still have to somehow include the pervasive holding penalty non-calls on the Ohio State OL.

When you do, that's probably  worth 7 pts or more.

Sorry, but you have to build that into the model.  It's kind of a rule for games in Columbus.

Joined: 10/21/2008

MGoPoints: 19372

buckeyejonross

November 7th, 2016 at 6:39 PM ^

This is actually true. The B1G has mandated the refs give OSU the calls v. Michigan since they know OSU is the only B1G team who can win the playoff. But now that you've figured out their plan and have let the masses know by way of this internet comment, the B1G may have to adjust their MO a bit.

Joined: 07/27/2010

MGoPoints: 13808

Hard-Baughlls

November 7th, 2016 at 6:47 PM ^

Harbaugh will send Urban into retirement.  He thought he found an easy backdoor in to the playoff every year, scurrying away from Saban like a little mouse.  Then, Saban 2.0 showed up at Michigan, and even worse, now he's in the same division, not just conference.

Urban's heart will be acting up soon...Harbaugh is relentless.

Joined: 09/28/2016

MGoPoints: 6637

Winchester Wolverine

November 7th, 2016 at 6:10 PM ^

Hopefully Iowa's atmosphere is loud and intense to give our guys a taste of what's to come. To beat them, in their own house, against Meyer, would be the most satisfying moment of all time. However. Beat Iowa.

Joined: 01/07/2015

MGoPoints: 19166

Toasted Yosties

November 7th, 2016 at 6:12 PM ^

Listened to Ivan Maisel's podcast today. He said Barrett had 12 passes off of his third option WR. Per Meyer, Barrett never has the time to hit his third option, which explains some of Ohio State's success on Saturday. I have a feeling our defense isn't going to give him that amount of time in the pocket. Definitely made me feel confident about our chances.

Joined: 06/05/2013

MGoPoints: 9261

gbdub

November 7th, 2016 at 6:14 PM ^

Remember those games in 2010 everyone complains about where the RichRod offense could torch anyone for hundreds of yards, but had a hard time scoring in the red zone?

That's what OSU is going to look like against Michigan this year, because it's what happens to very good but not quite elite spread offenses against great defenses.

Getting good athletes 1 on 1 in space will result in some missed tackles and chunk plays. But sustaining that over a whole drive, and finishing when you run out of space in the red zone, is a whole 'nother ball of wax (as the Terps just learned).

The big thing I've noticed with Barrett the last couple weeks is a knack for making 3rd and long completions by extending plays. Good luck with that against Lewis.



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Joined: 02/16/2010

MGoPoints: 26761

wahooverine

November 7th, 2016 at 7:43 PM ^

You can bank of at least two drive extending, 3rd down PI calls against Lewis in Columbus.  Meyer knows this and will count on it.  Not trying to be a Debbie Downer, I think we can and should win, but it will require overcoming things like this. If we can pull it off, it's that much sweeter.

Joined: 11/14/2011

MGoPoints: 6799

mediocracy2

November 7th, 2016 at 6:16 PM ^

If it's the one that jogged their way through the October games then we're in great shape... If it's the one I watched Saturday night that looked like they were playing with a purpose then we may be in for a long afternoon. 

Joined: 09/07/2016

MGoPoints: 331

Hard-Baughlls

November 7th, 2016 at 6:50 PM ^

We are a better, more mature team.  We run a system that is tougher to stop.  The spread is great when it's clicking, but they will get bogged down and we will grind them into submission.  

Joined: 09/28/2016

MGoPoints: 6637