Updated mock draft from Nbadraft.net
https://www.nbadraft.net/nba-mock-drafts/?year-mock=2022
So we touched on this in the Purdue snowflake thread but there will be some very interesting decisions after this season. For those of you who only want to discuss the here and now, you can choose not to comment on this thread. To me, it’s obvious this team isn’t making any kind of real run, so I look to the future. Anyway, there are many mock drafts that still list Houstan and Diabate as late first round picks. Nbadraft.net has been my go to source for a while and they updated yesterday. Houstan has been a lottery pick for much of the year. Now, he is nowhere to be seen for 2022 or 2023. Frankie is listed as #31 for 2023, which is…interesting. Diabate early second round 2023 as well. Dickinson not on either list.
Its scary to think we could lose all 5 starters from a team that is currently a bubble team. However, if all the freshmen return and we can get Hunter back for his junior year, we might have something. I think it’s a no brainer for Houstan and Diabate to return, but I think both will be coinflips. I will concede that Hunter will probably move on. Either way, next years team will be very young.
Also interesting that Ivey from Purdue is up to #2.
February 9th, 2022 at 11:57 AM ^
Dickinson is not coming back. Iirc, his statement about returning for this year included language that this was his last year on campus.
February 9th, 2022 at 11:59 AM ^
Right. Which is a shame. I don’t think he will return but there is always a chance he could change his mind. Especially if he won’t be drafted, in the age of NIL money, and potentially going out on a season that wasn’t up to par.
February 9th, 2022 at 12:11 PM ^
Hunter’s NIL potential should be sky high. It is surprising how low the appreciation is for him regarding his draft prospects right now as he has significantly improved his outside shot and has also shown the ability to go to us right on the post.
February 9th, 2022 at 12:29 PM ^
He’s basically unplayable defensively at the NBA level, so that’s probably his limiting factor.
February 9th, 2022 at 12:41 PM ^
Exactly this. Hunter is a fantastic college player, but just might not have the necessary traits athletically. (For a comparable, see: Garza, Luka.)
I think he can work his way in, but he's got some work to do to get there.
February 9th, 2022 at 1:20 PM ^
He's not an NBA player but being on campus for 2 more years isn't changing that, so if he wants to take his shot now it makes sense. He's not coming back.
Houstan seems likely to be back right now, Diabate could still get seen as a late first round raw flyer and be gone.
Either way what this team needs is a PG and/or wing that can create their own perimeter shot, that is what will change the team prospects for next year. Maybe that is Jett but my guess is we will be going after another transfer PG again, Frankie's complete inability to hit a jump shot is just such a problem.
February 9th, 2022 at 1:58 PM ^
When did it become a thing for guys who clearly were not going to be drafted to just go ahead and declare two years early anyway? I get what you are saying but wouldn’t it be more valuable for him to stick around a couple more years and get his degree as opposed to leaving two years early to go play in Serbia or the G league?
February 9th, 2022 at 2:52 PM ^
Totally hear you @TK, but I’m not sure that’s the way to frame it. If your goal is to be a pro, shouldn’t you just go be a pro?
If college ball can help you get there, that’s a different story. But once that ceases to be the case, the demands (schoolwork) and limitations (practice-time limits, practicing/playing against less-seasoned players) of college may not be the best use of your time. You can get your degree later.
February 9th, 2022 at 3:06 PM ^
If you got offered a few hundred thousand to pursue your dream job that has a shelf life you wouldn't take it? He can finish his degree at 32, staying in college reduces the number of years he has to make money playing basketball period.
Makes perfect sense to me to leave, doesn't end his shot at getting a degree at all and the degree doesn't get less valuable.
February 9th, 2022 at 4:13 PM ^
I understand that too. I just don’t see a lot of guys leave school early when they aren’t draftable.
February 9th, 2022 at 6:14 PM ^
I don't know what kind of NIL money he might get here but short of a lot of that money, no, it is not more valuable to be in school making that compared to what he could make overseas, where he can play more games and dedicate more time to basketball.
He can get his degree any time. His window for being a professional athlete is much smaller.
February 9th, 2022 at 12:13 PM ^
True, but 18 ppg, 8 rbp, and 36.5% 3 point shooting means he's gone imho, no matter where he is drafted.
February 9th, 2022 at 12:20 PM ^
Garza stayed 4 years. Cockburn came back for his junior season. ?♂️
February 9th, 2022 at 12:46 PM ^
Garza wasn't athletic enough and couldn't guard anyone. Kofi can't shoot like Hunter. Hunter is a nice combo of both that should have a decent NBA career if he gets to the right team.
February 9th, 2022 at 1:08 PM ^
Hunter has less footwork on the post than Garza had, plus his numbers were incredible in college…and he can’t even get spot minutes on my lowly Pistons. No one is saying Hunter is a bad player(he’s been playing really well), just that his game is a hard sell in the league. Mo Wagner is a much more mobile big and he has struggled to find consistent footing on an NBA team.
February 9th, 2022 at 3:09 PM ^
Sees words 'Wagner' and 'struggled to find consistent footing' and immediately thinks of:
February 9th, 2022 at 4:44 PM ^
Garza's footwork was great, but he wasn't strong enough for the NBA to hold up defensively. He was so slow laterally on defense that he was a mismatch against anyone, even post players. Hunter ate him alive as a freshman with his subpar footwork. They're not even really the same type of player to be honest and Hunter's outlook in the pros is better because he's more athletic and has better size and strength. Garza just screamed "finesse" to me and the only time he dominated in the post was on smaller centers and using very creative post moves, that won't work in the NBA.
February 9th, 2022 at 9:57 PM ^
To be clear, Garza is in the NBA and is playing.
February 9th, 2022 at 9:59 PM ^
Luka Garza is generously listed at 6'10", while Dickinson is legit 7'1" and has longer arms. That's a big difference.
It's pretty clear he's not destined for NBA superstardom, but no way would I count him out. Dickinson has the size to be a legit backup center in the NBA, while Garza is too short and earth-bound.
Garza was a fantastic college player who just doesn't have a role in modern NBA. Dickinson's improved range and passing give him the potential to have a career in the league IMO.
,He's deficient defensively, but he's steadily improving in all aspects of his game. BTW, Moe Wagner isn't a star by any stretch, but he's averaging 12.5 minutes and 7.6 points - that's a legit NBA player if you ask me.
February 9th, 2022 at 1:23 PM ^
Garza is probably more athletic and fluid than Hunter and has more defensive upside and was a clearly superior offensive player and he is still a barely fringe nba player. Hunter isn't an NBA player and no amount of years in college is changing that, the only question for Hunter is whether he wants to spend four years in college before he bounces around the end of the NBA/G league and eventually goes to Europe or just get started doing it now.
February 9th, 2022 at 4:49 PM ^
Garza is not more athletic. He was a slow plodder who could barely sneak a credit card under his feet when he jumped. The way Hunter can at least hang with a wing for a few dribbles on a switch shows he was a better defender than Garza. Garza was the worst defender in the league and that was always going to be his downfall in the pros. Hunter is a plus defender and becoming as good of a shooter. I'm not saying Hunter is the next Joker but he could definitely carve out a consistent role in the NBA if he keeps his shooting up. My god, did you ever see Garza dunk? It took him a lifetime just to gather and get off the floor. Dude was so slow. And "fluid" to me was just his finesse around the rim. He had old man game and no defense.
Edit: I just watched Garza highlights from the tournament and could not be more convinced he's less athletic than Hunter. Dude never gets above the rim and his post moves are just him shouldering smaller dudes and hooking them with his elbow to make space, then laying it up. He hits a bunch of pick and pop 3's and a huge stiff and then can't do shit against athletic bigs. He's also 2-3 inches shorter than Hunter with a smaller wingspan. Comparing them in the pros is a complete waste because they are not the same player. Garza never had a chance in the pros with his credit-card hops.
February 9th, 2022 at 1:11 PM ^
Hunter is much more draftable as a sophomore (and a junior) Cockburn. Hunter is a great passer, good mid range, and emerging 3 pt shooter.
We have seen similar build guys take a few years and really come along in the league (Marc Gasol, Jokic).
Cockburn doesn’t bring much at all to the NBA. His offensive style is obsolete in today’s league, and he averages like 1 assist at best a game despite constant doubles. Defensively, he can carve out some late 1st/early 2nd quarter minutes to be a bruiser but that’s all I really see him being
February 9th, 2022 at 1:25 PM ^
If Hunter had the game of Gasol and Jokic Michigan wouldn't be on the bubble
February 9th, 2022 at 1:41 PM ^
This is like saying that Caleb Houstan is draftable because we've seen similar build guys (Larry Bird, Luka Doncic) really come along in the league.
There are some...differences...between Hunter and Jokic.
February 9th, 2022 at 1:44 PM ^
Gasol was a far superior defender and Jokic is a much better all-around offensive player. All the things you mentioned, Garza was doing at a much higher clip in college and he probably will not have a huge impact in the NBA.
February 9th, 2022 at 2:04 PM ^
I know you didn’t actually just compare Dickinson to Gasol and Jokic…
February 9th, 2022 at 3:12 PM ^
The proper comparison is a slightly smaller Brooke Lopez. That's who Hunter should be emulating. The question is whether he can provide sufficient rim protection to be a drop defender, and whether he can keep refining his inside-outside game.
Lopez still gets played off the floor when he's healthy, and basically forces the Bucks into drop coverage when he plays, but he does present teams with significant dilemmas when they try to go too small while still effectively spacing the floor when they don't.
February 9th, 2022 at 3:29 PM ^
Lopez is an above average defender but not great in some defensive schemes. Players shoot a very low number when Lopez is on the floor around the basket. Hunter just needs to get in shape and work on his vertical. He needs to be able to catch a lop, there's not excuse why he can't at his height. Best case scenario for Hunter is Enis Kanter; 2nd or 3rd big on a team. That's his ceiling. If he chooses to go to Europe he'll probably get a million a year contract at some point there. The rough and tumble game they play with more ball movement and less athleticism really fits his game.
February 9th, 2022 at 7:09 PM ^
The answer is no, he doesn't provide sufficient rim protection even in college. So there's no chance in the NBA. That's why he's not being mocked anywhere despite being a really good offensive player. I think for him the question is can he become an even better offensive player by taking and making more outside shots. Being able to do that exceptionally well is probably the only way he gets on a roster.
February 9th, 2022 at 6:44 PM ^
Cockburn coming back was a real head scratcher. But he wasn't and still isn't much of an NBA prospect. Maybe he came back because he's also not much of a European prospect but Hunter would fit in pretty well with European style ball I would think.
But he also didn't announce before his sophomore season that he's leaving, to my knowledge. Hunter isn't coming back because we already know he doesn't want to.
February 9th, 2022 at 11:58 AM ^
Hunter is one of those players as a coach you wouldn't allow come back even if he wanted. If he wants a chance to lay in the NBA he needs to go this year given his age and skillet, its already an uphill battle.
February 9th, 2022 at 12:48 PM ^
Something, something the pot calling the skillet black…
/I’ll show myself out
February 9th, 2022 at 4:07 PM ^
I wouldn’t expect him back but I’d certainly allow it if I were Juwan.
February 9th, 2022 at 11:59 AM ^
Dickinson didn't have a great shooting night last night,* but he is exceeding my expectations. I think it's safe to consider him gone. Interesting to ponder what role Diabate might see for himself in a returning offense without Hunter. . .
*OTOH he did seem to show that he wasn't just going to let opposing guards go to the iron completely unhindered, so I was encouraged about his D.
EDIT: Feels like a happy, healthy day here at mgoblog after a lot of recent worry and tension; I like it!
February 9th, 2022 at 12:00 PM ^
No way HD is coming back. His outside shot and right hand are starting to pop.
February 9th, 2022 at 12:04 PM ^
Moussa looked good for 5 minutes in the early going vs MSU. Otherwise I don't see anything from him besides high energy guy. Skill set seems sloppy for NBA standards. He's not even that big to dominate just for defensive purposes.
Houston I can clearly see the potential. He's just very young and needs time.
February 9th, 2022 at 12:15 PM ^
I'm not seeing it from Houstan. He's pretty much just a spot-up shooter at this point. Make him shoot on the move and his percentage drops precipitously. To stick as a shooter in the NBA, you've got to be able to do that.
February 9th, 2022 at 12:34 PM ^
He's gotta get in the gym with Sauce & DBo.
February 9th, 2022 at 12:33 PM ^
I disagree on Moussa. Clearly he is still very raw and needs to get stronger. And he isn't quite the leaper I imagined. But his lateral quickness is outstanding for his height and if he develops some handles and a consistent outside shot (we have seen a few glimpses) then he has a really high upside. I could still see him getting drafted late round 1 with a team that wants to develop him.
OTOH, I like Houstan as a player but I think his ceiling is probably Duncan Robinson and there's significant work to get there.
February 9th, 2022 at 12:50 PM ^
i don't know a ton about how the nba does this kind of thing but by develop him to you mean in the g league? i honestly can't imagine him getting drafted this year unless he has a mitch mcgary-style close to the season.
February 9th, 2022 at 4:22 PM ^
I think Moussa is a Bam Adebayo clone.
February 9th, 2022 at 6:58 PM ^
Huh? Adebayo is huge, has much wider shoulders and was 260 lbs as a freshman at Kentucky. And he used that size to have an astronomical FT rate in college (ie he drew fouls).
They're totally different players. Adebayo has the size to bang with NBA bigs. Moussa is much more slight of build and probably more agile.
As someone said above, he needs to get better at shooting and ball handling because he's a wing in the NBA. He's more like a slightly taller but probably not longer version of Pascal Siakam.
February 9th, 2022 at 4:54 PM ^
Houstan looks so weak when he drives. He gets muscled going to the hoop and has the ball poked away easily. A year in Camp Sanderson and some experience should allow him to be so much better next year. I remember Ivey being so soft last year but clearly more athletic than Caleb. But he came back and looks like a grown-ass man out there after a year of development. Caleb should be able to make that type of transformation to his shooting game that Ivey made to his driving game. He'll be a better shooter off the dribble or on the move next year. He's just so soft with the ball right now and you can tell the level of competition is too much for him at this stage in his growth.
February 9th, 2022 at 7:12 PM ^
I don't even think a year in Camp Sanderson will help him. He's just very limited athletically. I hope I'm wrong but his leap from HS to college was like Stauskas going from college to NBA. A transition to speed and athleticism that swallowed him up and rendered the skills they had (good skills!) essentially useless.
February 9th, 2022 at 12:05 PM ^
So playing the what if scenario.
If we assume Hunter is gone, but the freshmen return. We could potentially have a lineup of
Collins
Bufkin
Jett
Houstan
Diabate
With Williams, Reed, Barnes, Dug, Tschetter as the bench. That team might have some potential but super young. We would have to hope the young players grow up fast.
Although I’m sure we would look again for a grad transfer. Without Houstan and Diabate it would look super dicey.
February 9th, 2022 at 12:37 PM ^
I think Houstan and Diabate are perfect breakout candidates as sophomores along the lines of what we've seen from Davis, Ivey, Franz, etc. in the past. They have further to go, but their youth suggests that. I'm also excited about Jett and Taris being "rotation worthy" freshmen.
What terrifies me is that there are exactly three guards on the roster next year and two of them are unplayable right now and the third is a 5-9 true freshman. We need an impact combo guard transfer next year for sure and those are hard to find. Frankie has been much, much rougher than I expected. Kobe is super young so there is no reason to worry yet, but his defense is as bad as I've ever seen.
February 9th, 2022 at 1:17 PM ^
Kobe really isn’t that much different than Caris as a freshman. A lot of us remember how good Caris was. And that he was in the rotation as a freshman, but he too was rail thin and lost most of the time.
I expect Kobe to be solid next year. Houstan has to be a decent amount better. Frankie…yikes. Not ready to write him off but he’s so out of control and his shot may be worse than Simpson’s as a freshman
February 9th, 2022 at 1:35 PM ^
Bufkin was a McDonald's All-American. LeVert was a deep sleeper Ohio commit ranked in the 200s.
February 9th, 2022 at 5:41 PM ^
Not sure I see the point here. Once you're on campus the rankings don't mean much and I both see and like the comparison between Bufkin & LeVert. LeVert has made over 40 million bucks in the NBA so I think its pretty safe to say he was severely underrated coming out of HS.
February 9th, 2022 at 1:03 PM ^
Need to look into the portal. Even with that roster with all the freshmen coming back, you'd want another experienced PG and big. There's plenty of wing options but none have shown starting B1G quality shooting or defense, so you'd look there too. Basically everything.