UM moves up 14 spots to #14 in ESPN's FPI
This is the week we hear ad naseum that a football team's greatest improvements come between weeks 1 and 2. It could also be said that fancy stats' greatest refinement (now having a single data point basis) comes between weeks 0 and 1:
ESPN 2021 College Football Power Index
Interesting items:
- Minny moves up one position after its "quality loss" to OSU.
- LOLRutgerz up 29 spots, biggest upward movement
...and here we find UM once again holding down #3 in B1G East:
September 7th, 2021 at 11:30 AM ^
Just more proof that rankings in general shouldn't happen until at least the 3rd game of the season. Having said that, please explain how Clemson didn't drop?
September 7th, 2021 at 11:49 AM ^
You may be more satisfied with Clemson's Efficiency Ratings then, in which Clemson is #40 overall, with a #108 rated offense.
September 7th, 2021 at 12:14 PM ^
ESPN Talking Heads: "OMG, Dabo needs to right this wrong. Clemson is on a losing streak! Time to hit the panic button"
Also ESPN Talking Heads: "I mean, they still have my playoff vote."
September 7th, 2021 at 12:33 PM ^
Played a top team and their defensive showing cancelled out their poor offense would be my guess. Only gave up 256 yards and didn’t allow an offensive TD.
September 7th, 2021 at 1:54 PM ^
Conversely Wisconsin dominates PSU, save for using it's foot as a shooing range. and plummets.
How many times did Mertz snatch defeat from the jaws of victory? They controlled the ball for 43 minutes and out gained PSU by 60 yards.
What happened to their vaunted running game? I thought they were best in the B1G? I don't think PSU is really that great.
Another big mover was Washington down 28 spots to #49 sandwiched between Northwestern and Nebraska.
Also interesting, LSU stays in front of UCLA despite getting bitch slapped by the Bruins. I guess home field counts for a lot.
September 7th, 2021 at 2:41 PM ^
Neither one of PSU or Wisconsin look like they are gunna be anything special this year.
September 7th, 2021 at 2:58 PM ^
Well, both are obviously propped up by pre-season rankings. Even if it was a blowout, the loser was probably only dropping to maybe 10-12.
I'm a little suspicious of both teams. Yeah, they probably have elite defenses, but good offenses in college can score lots of points on even the good defenses they face. The fact that each offense got 3 points makes me think both offenses are middling and neither is a real national title contender
September 7th, 2021 at 11:30 AM ^
Win games and let the rankings take care of themselves...
September 7th, 2021 at 2:25 PM ^
You mean like UCLA?
September 7th, 2021 at 6:21 PM ^
I hate it when we are ranked too high. This seems about right…if not just a bit too high. Loved seeing us look good. Want to see that same performance against quality.
September 7th, 2021 at 11:44 AM ^
14th? That seems a little extreme. With a win over Washington, I was thinking maybe we'd be 23rd or 24th.
September 7th, 2021 at 11:57 AM ^
A win over Washington right now shouldn't even move the needle much. Unless it's a similar score to the WMU game.
September 7th, 2021 at 11:47 AM ^
Oklahoma ahead of Georgia. That’s proof right there these rankings mean nothing.
September 7th, 2021 at 12:18 PM ^
If those two meet again in the playoffs, it'll be interesting to see if Riley has learned anything from the last time. Talk about strength vs strength and weakness vs weakness.
September 7th, 2021 at 11:49 AM ^
I've always been a bit suspect of FPI, but I do think UM looks better than people expected in this game. So I'll take it, with the acknowledgement it could all crash down next week.
Rutgers looked...really good against Temple. It's Temple and all that but Rutgers used to get pantsed by teams like Temple and instead they did a great job turning the Owls over and just beating them up for 4 quarters. Rutgers is absolutely not the worst team in the league anymore, and honestly they'd probably be a .500 team in the West division if they swapped.
September 7th, 2021 at 11:53 AM ^
#14 to me seems a bit high, especially given we just lost our most productive, senior leader receiving threat, but I'm not sure if that is part of ESPN's FPI calculus or not.
Either way, it's more knee jerk reaction from a sports media outlet that generates revenue by overreacting and sensationalizing performances so they can sell advertising through clickbait and online hawt takes. I'm not buying or selling any of it right now. We just have to let the season continue to unfold and enjoy it as it goes.
My takeaways from week one: This team definitely does not suck, and is probably a top 25 team nationally if they can maintain or improve upon week one's performance. They also have clear limitations that will keep them from truly challenging the B1G hierarchy without some serious hijinks throughout the course of the season.
I'm also still a little concerned about the offensive play calling and philosophy from Gattisbaugh. I understand and also acknowledge this team should have a potent ground game, which is fantastic. The question that still needs to be answered is, will this offensive coaching staff beat their heads against bricks trying to establish the run against every opponent because they believe they have a great rushing attack, or are they willing to take the path of least resistance and exploit the right matchups based on what the opponent presents to them? We weren't ever going to get that answer against Western Michigan, because Michigan should be able to impose their will against that defense however they felt like, and they did. Next Saturday, if the game plan is to run the ball on 70% of the offensive snaps against Washington, that sounds like a recipe for trouble if you ask me - they'll need to be much closer to 50/50 against their defense.
I'm not too worried about where they "rank" against the rest of the country right now, I think this team should just continue to focus on improving week-to-week and we'll see how they stack-up in a month or so.
September 7th, 2021 at 12:21 PM ^
I like the 50/50 run/pass idea much better as well. It could be that with the WMU game in the bag by halftime, the coaching staff decided not to show their hand in a passing attack. Plus eating up more clock against Western also was a better option.
I hope that the passing game won't suffer now that Ronnie Bell is gone for the season. Others need to step up.
September 7th, 2021 at 12:36 PM ^
Agree - Will the coaches be willing to try and attack - adding more risk - or will they be satisfied with a 26-19 late lead. I dont recall a time we've ever gone for the jugular in UM football in my 24 years of watching (since i was a freshman at UM). Its what doomed carr, to some degree, and we havent been any good since. When we have been, we get super tight/timid. There are times to run it into the line 3 times and take 2 minutes off the clock, and there are times to stomp out any chance the other team has to come back. I get that we didnt always have the horses, but we did with Nico and DPJ etc.. and though there's a lot of shea hate, he could have done some of it. With milton, got it.
So with cade --- do they open it up and even if a mistake is made, keep their foot on the gas? Or do they not even try...? Or do they try one time and run for the hills if he makes a mistake?
Would be great to finish a game emphatically - rather than hanging on and hoping for a defensive stop.
September 7th, 2021 at 7:59 PM ^
Agreed, the desire to dominate is exactly what the program has been missing. Though, those tendencies have been around ever since Bo. It is why we have lost so many bowl games and close games as underdogs. We just refuse to embrace any kind of risk, afraid that the mistake will doom us and in so doing, play timid and make the mistake anyway by succumbing to the moment rather than embracing the pressure as an opportunity.
I say attack and end these games with decisiveness. It will build confidence and over time demoralize our opponents. The reason that Alabama's dominance appears to be inevitable is partially because their opponents think they so too and this takes a lot of fight out of them.
September 7th, 2021 at 11:53 AM ^
We're #3
We're #3
We're #3!
September 7th, 2021 at 12:16 PM ^
That could remain the case until our guys play @ Penn Sate on Nov 13th, so it will be a long wait. That will only change if Penn State loses before then or our team were to lose a game as well. I'm not counting on that.
September 7th, 2021 at 12:03 PM ^
My residual coffee grounds are more prescient than rankings at this point.
Even moreso this year, wherein even last season is useless in predicting anything.
September 7th, 2021 at 12:13 PM ^
Being ranked is all well and good. I want to see Washington go down at the Big House Saturday night. Our guys fell they have a lot more to prove so I like their attitude-Go Blue!
September 7th, 2021 at 12:19 PM ^
Beat Ohio State please. Rankings be damned. Just show me a team that plays loose and doesn't get psyched out whenever they play them. It's like they get all their confidence sucked out of them and don't have fun in the biggest game of college football.
The guys should know that while they are overshadowed by the talent at OSU, that means Michigan has to play better football. Better fundamentals with a smart game plan. I don't care if we have to play dirty or clean, just beat them.
And you know what, I wouldn't care what our ranking is then either. Beating them is all that matters.
September 7th, 2021 at 8:00 PM ^
True.
September 7th, 2021 at 1:00 PM ^
Can we stop with the “Rutgers sucks” meme? Schiano has shown he can make them respectable and he’s not a bad coach (even though he’s somewhat of a douche.)
September 7th, 2021 at 2:49 PM ^
Yep. There is not a single "easy out" in the B1G East this year.
A contrast to the West, where Illinois, UNL and Northwestern all look like teams that won't mount any sort of challenge to a functional football team. Purdue could find their way onto that list too.
September 7th, 2021 at 5:27 PM ^
I had to rack my brain for about 3 minutes, unsuccessfully, at your reference to UNL. I googled it. Spoiler...it's Nebraska. I was, at first, embarrassed that i didn't get that from process of elimination. Then I remembered a B10 without Nebraska. Also without divisions.
Oh, and who cares about Nebraska and Scott Frost and those National Championship trolls. We should all just forget about UNL, just like old late night Eric did.
September 7th, 2021 at 8:53 PM ^
UNL - University of Nebraska Lincoln which is not to be confused with UNO - University of Nebraska - Omaha (former home to their AD?)
September 7th, 2021 at 4:22 PM ^
This might mean a bit more than this polls at this time of year. Then again, the polls are pretty meaningless the first couple weeks of this season. Hope WMU has a great rest of the year and beat Washington !
September 7th, 2021 at 5:05 PM ^
Am I the only person on this post to find it odd that ESPN bumped Michigan up when they just so happen to be their feature CFB football game this Saturday? Money talks, Shit drops 28 spots.
September 8th, 2021 at 6:12 AM ^
We all know what will matter at the end of the season. It'l be score boards and not power rankings so theres that.
September 8th, 2021 at 10:22 AM ^
It's behind a paywall now, but I think Bill Connelly's S&P+ has Michigan in the top 10.
September 9th, 2021 at 5:32 PM ^
UM is rated #7 per S&P+... S&P+ overall ratings can still be found on the Football Outsiders website, however, the detailed advanced statistics are only behind the ESPN paywall now:
2021 COLLEGE FOOTBALL COMBINED F+ RATINGS