TCU Scouting Report
Did a little research for our upcoming CFP opponent
TCU
Total Offense: #21
Passing Offense: #40
Yards Per Completion: #23
Rushing Offense:#19
Yards Per Rush Attempt: #15
Total Defense:#72
Running Defense: #66
Yards per Rush Attempt: #62
Passing Defense: #79
Completion % Def: #10
Opponent Yards per Completion: #88
TCU has played 3 Top 50 Defenses (K State 2x, Texas and then Iowa State)
According to their average offense, they underperformed in the Texas and Iowa State games despite the scores. They were well under their average output. They did about avg vs K State #50 in total offense.
Despite scoring 62 points (due to Iowa State mistakes), the has 100 yards less in total offense than average. Iowa State is the best defense they faced at #4 in total defense.
TCU has faced one top 50 passing defense. This is also Iowa State (#6) they threw for 212 yards well below their average of 273
TCU has faced two Top 50 Rushing Defenses, they had 115 and 131 yards in each game for an average of 4.4 Yards per Carry. They normally average 200 Rushing yards and 5.3 YPC
The TCU defense has faced 8 top 50 offenses (9 if you count K State twice). In 3 of those games they held the team to below their average output. In 4 of them they held them to around their average output and in two of the games they allowed offenses to exceed their average output. They are allowing 400 total yards of offenses on average to Top 50 offenses. If you exclude the Texas game (which is an anomaly) they allow 425 yards of offense.
So their defense is not great to say the least, but here is where it really falls off:
TCU has faced 6 Top 50 rushing offenses. In those games against running backs (I excluded WR and QB runs), they have allowed 4.75 Y/C, 5.42 Y/C, 6.35 Y/C, 2.42 Y/C, 5.82 Y/C, 8 Y/C. Horrible numbers if you exclude the Texas game. On average they are allowing 5.46 Y/C vs Top 50 rushing teams. Over 6 yards per carry if you exclude the Texas game. Also a note, they allowed 7.96 Y/C to Iowa State, Iowa State is the #117th worst rushing offense in the nation. None of these B12 teams have an O-line like Michigan has imo. Im not really sure why they had success against Texas and Bijan Robinson but they have not played anywhere near that level this year. There might have been an O-line injury or Bijan wasn't 100% but it is important to note that it did happen.
They have some playmakers
On offense, they have 6 Top 100 rated guys (per position) on PFF and 2 Top 100 rated guys on offense. Their highest rated player on PFF is their TE Jared Wiley.
Offensive playmakers in the Top 100 on offense: QB Max Duggan, HB Kendre Miller, TE Jared Wiley, Center Alan Ali, Guard Steve Avila. Quentin Johnson the WR is the #119 best WR on a down to down basis on PFF
On Defense, they have DB Josh Newton and Safety Milard Bradford. Sneaking outside of the top 100 is DB Tre'Vius Hodges-Tomlinson. Outside of those 3 positions, most of the their defense if in the 250-450 range according to PFF. One of the poorest D-lines in CFB and the LB's are not great either.
For reference Michigan has 14 players in the top 100 and (5 more right outside of it within the 250 range)
The PFF Average Talent Level (PFF average for all starters) for TCU is 218 as a team, 161 on offense and 275 of defense (the lower the number the better).
For Michigan the PFF Average talent level is 137 for the team, 161 on offense and 111 on defense. (Remember the lower the number the better)
As far as PFF, Michigan is very similar on offense, less talented WR, but more talented in the O-line department. But on Defense there is a huge difference. Michigan at 111 means on average their starters are closer to the top 100 and TCU starters are closer to the top 300 range.
The line at -9 seems about right, as SP+ as around the same number. Their Sp+ rating of 24.5 puts them ahead of the 2021 Michigan teams CFP SP+ was 23.4. 2022 Michigan would be a 10 point favorite over 2021 Michigan
December 5th, 2022 at 1:29 AM ^
It will be a fun match up but I just see our guys putting on their hard hats and going to work.
They haven't faced an offense like ours. It doesn't exist in Big 12 play.
Imposing our dominance through physical running will win the day once again!
December 5th, 2022 at 5:22 AM ^
As long as we put up points while we are waiting for our running game to wear them down. We can't afford empty possessions.
We beat Ohio State and Purdue because we were scoring points on the way to imposing our will in the 2nd half. That is the key difference between Harbaugh's current championship-level offense and his old under-center "body-blows" offense that could not win big games.
We have had tight games this year in the first half. But we did not have any games where we got far behind in the first half. That has to continue.
TCU is going to reach the red zone on most of their drives, so they will be putting up points. We will need to keep pace as the game progresses.
December 5th, 2022 at 7:41 AM ^
As for me, I don't want to fall behind early or late or ever.
December 5th, 2022 at 8:47 AM ^
Oh snap. My bad. I read your “red zone” as “end zone”. Never mind! I’ll slink off stage right
December 5th, 2022 at 12:20 PM ^
Can we just treat this next month like it's halftime of the Fiesta Bowl? I'd like 2nd half Michigan to show up in the 1st half.
December 5th, 2022 at 9:30 AM ^
Sure, makes sense but I really want to focus on our passing game; JJ needs to feel really comfortable with the mid-range and long ball. We're not going to beat Georgia running the ball if we don't have a passing game they need to respect.
December 5th, 2022 at 2:41 AM ^
Interesting that this year's Michigan is that much higher on sp+
December 5th, 2022 at 5:46 AM ^
Eh, we had fewer duds this year compared to last year I think. In addition to losing to MSU, we were also in tight games with Rutgers and Nebraska last year. And we’re significantly improved on the raw stats offensively and defensively. Overall, I’m not surprised.
December 5th, 2022 at 8:11 AM ^
Yeah, 10 points feels like a bit much. I know SP+ includes "preseason projections" -- not sure exactly what that entails but our preseason projections for 2021 were not good.
December 5th, 2022 at 9:06 AM ^
This is a very rough way to do a comparison (it doesn't account for schedule strength for one), but this year's team has an average margin of victory of almost 27.
Accounting for the loss to MSU, last year's team's average margin was 21.5.
Also they beat the two best teams on their schedule (OSU and PSU) by much bigger margins this year.
December 5th, 2022 at 5:10 AM ^
TCU has not faced a defense like ours . . . but have we faced an offense like theirs?
We faced Ohio State, but they did not have the TCU QB running threat. Penn State had the QB running threat, but they did not have the TCU passing game. Was Maryland a poor man's TCU? Purdue?
How do the offenses we faced this year compare to the TCU offense in terms of the stats/analytics?
The nice thing about all the data-based stats and analytics this time of year is that you have complete bodies of work for them to be based on, much more richness of data.
December 5th, 2022 at 7:06 AM ^
And LOTS to talk about for a month.
December 5th, 2022 at 8:34 AM ^
Purdue was Ohio State lite. Will throw it a ton, won't run as much, if at all, with the QB.
Maryland was my first thought for most comparable to TCU. I just don't know how closely they actually look to one another when putting it to any scrutiny. Someone bring this up to Alex!
December 5th, 2022 at 5:23 AM ^
I hope our team is taking TCU more seriously than I am, because man, I am not worried by this matchup at all.
December 5th, 2022 at 5:35 AM ^
I am worried about their offense and the element that Duggan's running adds. But our own offense can keep pace and eventually control the game if we use it fully.
The key is JJ.
Teams have showed that you CAN stop Michigan's running game. But you have to take risks and commit resources to do it.
JJ's development and the coaches willingness to unleash him has allowed Michigan to exploit those risks that opponents are taking. Whereas in the past we would just keep running into stacked boxes over and over in the hopes that something will break, we are much quicker to pull the JJ trigger now and punish what defense are doing. We will need to keep that up.
December 5th, 2022 at 10:45 AM ^
"Teams have showed that you CAN stop Michigan's running game. But you have to take risks and commit resources to do it. "
Well yes, but no.
Illinois was the only team that really stopped the run and that included several missing linemen, schoon was out, corum out, edwards was freshly injured, stokes went out injured in that game.
OSU stopped it for a half, but it ate them alive in the second half regardless of what defensive formation they put up.
DE ran for 200 against Purdue.
I dont think we should be saying, "you can stop the run" when exactly one team has done it and that game was about as full of *'s as they come.
December 5th, 2022 at 12:26 PM ^
Id be surprised if TCU didnt come out with the same +1 in the box approach that Illinois, OSU, and Purdue all employed. Especially because they seem to have a weak run defense and will feel the need to overcompensate so as not to be ground to dust
December 5th, 2022 at 8:57 AM ^
Not that you're asking for a worry, here's something that worries me that I posted about more at length in another thread. Excluding the bizarre and weird COVID year, I believe we are 34-6 in the last 3 seasons. On artificial turf, I believe we are 33-2 (national title contender level); on natural grass, 1-4 (uh, middling Group of Five level?). The sole win on natural grass was at Penn State in which we were down 14-17, w less than 4 mins to go. We don't play well on natural grass.
Traction is different, slippages happen to create big plays, crown of the field can be different, timing and coordination of routes and cuts can be ever so slightly amiss.
State Farm Stadium is natural grass. I assume we get some practice on natural grass but it seems to be insufficient. (I believe in the COVID year, we played zero games on natural grass. I believe this year we played zero games on natural grass.) I believe TCU plays its home games on natural grass.
Anyway, I'm going to the game and I really do believe we will win but this aspect of the game worries me including for injury purposes. The national championship is on artificial turf, so we're back on more familiar footing once getting by State Farm Stadium. (Btw, this is not to suggest that all turf is same and all grass is same. That is definitely not the case.)
Here's an article about concerns about State Farm Stadium grass from a team (Chiefs, who won so not really sour grapes situation) that plays on natural grass but felt that the SFS one was different and worse (just a couple months ago too):
December 5th, 2022 at 11:25 AM ^
Yes, I have noticed too that we do not play as well on natural grass historically. We don't have much playing time on it.
December 5th, 2022 at 11:40 AM ^
I can remember the freshly-laid sod being a significant hinderance for Michigan during the 2006 edition of The Game.
I even have a fuzzy memory of the sideline reporter noting OSU had significantly longer cleats right out of the gate.
Ugh.
December 5th, 2022 at 11:52 AM ^
Yep. I can't recall issues in that game specifically or if The Horseshoe was even natural grass at that time but it's an issue I've noticed as far back as the Carr days. I'm not an expert on this so not sure if it's an issue of our artificial turf being particularly different from natural grass or what but we are definitely NOT the same team on natural grass. I do think we leave w a win but there will be some frustration caused by this issue. The difference in records is alarming.
December 5th, 2022 at 2:31 PM ^
The turf was a significant issue for Michigan in the 2006 Ohio State game. There were repeated instances of a Michigan player trying to cut and slipping down with a big chunk of the Ohio sod stuck to his foot. Tressel claimed their players had never played on this turf, but they notably had NO issues changing directions all game.
December 5th, 2022 at 10:54 AM ^
I was not worried until I saw their game against KSU. Tough kids, really good and mobile Qb and they don’t quit unlike OSU.
December 5th, 2022 at 11:01 AM ^
I hear ya. Theyre a really good team but I just dont see them hanging. Michigan could not have gotten a better matchup, while osu couldnt have gotten a worse matchup.
December 5th, 2022 at 6:11 AM ^
Thanks for the info. Brian and Seth have all year been scratching their heads over PFF’s O-line grades, so I’ll take those at a discount, but the rest is helpful, although I’m not sure what the average talent level means. Where do UM’s numbers rank compared to Georgia or OSU?
December 5th, 2022 at 9:09 AM ^
Yeah, PFF #'s can be strange but they tend to be strong overall. Sometimes you can see a lot of guys with great stats rated low, because while they are producing in big moments, on a down to down basis they might be not doing as well.
The average talent level is not something PFF gives you. They do give you a team overall. The average talent level is me taking all the starters rankings and averaging them out.
I took a look at OSU and UGA and the results are very surprising. Team Talent Avg: Michigan (137) Ohio State (201) UGA (209) TCU (218). Remember lower is better, and the closer to 100 is better. Michigan players have simply been performing better on the field as a team than UGA and OSU according to PFF. Take that for what you will.
UGA has an OFF PFF Average of 149.8 and Ohio State has and Offense Avg of 78.78 (which is insane btw).
This is what is surprising to me. UGA only has two players in the PFF top 100, so for all the talk about their defense PFF doesn't agree. Most of their players are in the 150-350 range. Ohio State has 4 players in the top 100 on defense and Michigan has 7. The PFF defense averages: OSU (269.8) UGA (323.3) Michigan (111).
If you want the PFF team overalls (their team grades): OSU is #1 with a grade of 95.6, Michigan is #3 with a grade of 94.4, UGA is #5 with a grade of 93.9 and TCU is #9 with a grade of 88.
December 5th, 2022 at 6:30 AM ^
Well geez, now the Fee Fi Foe Film is gonna be light since you already detailed the personnel; you trying to kill this blog???
/s
December 5th, 2022 at 7:24 AM ^
Your words will be more organized accompanied by pictures. The MGoBlog difference.
December 5th, 2022 at 6:52 AM ^
So you're saying there's a chance?
/s
December 5th, 2022 at 7:01 AM ^
Stats aside, TCU will be no cakewalk. I know JH won’t let his guys look ahead, but if there’s a cylinder misfiring in the beginning than TCU could be up by a few scores quick. O’Connell looked like Stroud against us the 1st half and TCU is Purdue on coke. I look for Harbaugh to go full manball and Mullings to play a much bigger, bruiser type roll. We should definitely win but I’m not understanding how Georgia drew the tougher opponent. I look for that game to mirror the Tennessee score, if not worse.
December 5th, 2022 at 10:34 AM ^
For the same reason Michigan played Georgia last year instead of Cincinnati.
December 5th, 2022 at 10:51 AM ^
"TCU is Purdue on coke".
I really havent watched anything but the B12 champ game but Duggan was just heaving arm punts for 1/2 that game. Literally high lofting 50/50 balls into coverage.
That was a pretty stark contrast to AO dropping dimes in 12inch windows.
There's a reason they were down in so many games. (arm punt offense is pretty unreliable)
And there's a reason they made comebacks (Big 12 defenses).
I think that combination along with their relatively mediocre run defense is going to result in a game that looks pretty similar to most of our games this season. A tight first half and a blowout second half.
December 5th, 2022 at 11:33 AM ^
Duggan really does put some air under those moonshots.
Reminds me of McSorely at PSU. It worked in the Rose Bowl against USC . . . until it didn't. USC eventually got smart and camped a safety near the sidelines on the 20, and just waited for the ball they knew was coming, and picked it off late in the game to end it.
We have not been good at defending 50/50 balls to say the least, so we are going to need to work on when to turn around and jump timing.
December 5th, 2022 at 12:20 PM ^
I also only really watched the Big 12 CCG outside of a few quarters here and there of TCU over the season, but from what I saw on Saturday, Duggan put his body on the line running it heroically when all of his receivers were completely covered. They were only in a position to come back due to his running; not his passing.
December 5th, 2022 at 9:18 PM ^
There are things that work against the 53rd ranked defense that arent going to work against a top 3 defense. You have to play perfect against Michigan to stand a chance, it's why everyone crumbles in the second half after Michigan weathers the storm.
I'm not saying TCU isn't going to be a fight, it likely will be, those kids are battle tested.
I just don't think their winning combination is going to be a good combination against Michigan.
December 5th, 2022 at 7:53 AM ^
Isn't the 2021 Michigan SP+ that you cite post-CFP demolition at the hands of Georgia? If so, to compare apples to apples, we should use the pre-CFP rating, which I recall as higher.
December 5th, 2022 at 9:14 AM ^
Yes that was post CFP, pre CFB after CCG it was 24.0 in 2021 then dropped to 23.4 after UGA. 2022 Michigan is 33.5, so 2022 is still a 9 point favorite on a neutral field over 2021. The 2022 team simply has more efficient. 2021 Michigan struggled a bit in games, Penn State, Rutgers, Nebraska, parts of the NW game. This team largely outside of Illinois (where a bunch of starters were out) and Maryland hasn't had many issues. For me personally the Illinois game is the only game this year where I thought we might lose.
December 5th, 2022 at 9:44 AM ^
Thanks for the response. Are you basing that on F+ report? Is that reliable for SP+ purposes? I don't know for sure but I believe SP+ is proprietary to Connelly and ESPN (unlike the AP poll, for ex). I could be wrong but I thought we were much higher than 24 before last year's semifinals based on Connelly's list.
December 5th, 2022 at 10:23 AM ^
No thats based off of SP+ on ESPN. Its behind an ESPN+ paywall but those are the numbers
December 5th, 2022 at 11:41 AM ^
Not doubting you at all but I also have a ESPN+ account and did a search and could not find historical data. Could you please point me to the page? Would like to use it in future.
December 5th, 2022 at 8:02 AM ^
Unless we lay an egg, I expect we'll win comfortably. TCU has been flirting with losses all season against lesser opponents. They've come from behind several times.... that means having a strong second half. Our opponents don't have strong second halves..... in fact, we don't allow our opponents to have second halves....
GO BLUE
as for the ohio vs GA match up.. GA's pass rush is considerably better than our, imo. Stroud is going to have a very rough game. I see GA rolling them pretty badly. They can talk about having new life and a month to prepare, etc. Last year they felt invincible rolling undefeated though the regular season walking into A2 expecting to handle Michigan as they had for the last several seasons. They got punched in the mouth and bullied for 4 quarters. They talked about how all season they've been waiting to avenge that loss... Rolling through another undefeated season until that last game, where they again got bullied and trounced by 3 scores. They are a team that doesn't have the confidence that they have historically enjoyed. GA by 17.
December 5th, 2022 at 8:05 AM ^
We need better secondary play in terms of the backs locating the ball … no soft zones play tough man … as well Edwards will be 💯 w/o the soft cast … month of practice at rb for Mullings will be immense !!!
December 5th, 2022 at 11:35 AM ^
We need Morris back.
Oh, and that Corum guy too.
December 5th, 2022 at 8:18 AM ^
Let’s see if that 3-3-5 can hang with our O line
December 5th, 2022 at 8:37 AM ^
Looks promising for us.
But they'll be stacked against the run. Hopefully we run McCarthy
December 5th, 2022 at 11:35 AM ^
And hopefully we pass McCarthy
December 5th, 2022 at 8:49 AM ^
The averages for and against them are also somewhat skewed, as the bulk of the ball movement, and scoring, both for and against them, is done in large chunk plays and coverage busts. TCU is capable of putting together long drives and converting 3rd downs, but they're very similar on offense to Ohio State, and will struggle to punch the ball in on 4th and 1 in overtime.
December 5th, 2022 at 8:57 AM ^
I expect Michigan to pave over this defense even if they bring up the safeties. I think the Texas game was one where both sides were wary of the other and played kind of conservatively on offense. The UT offense, like most B12 offenses, requires big plays downfield, which it didn't get because TCU brought a lot of pressure and spied the hell out of Robinson. I think Michigan's passing game is better than Texas' - it's more diverse. Michigan can methodically move down the field, they don't need big plays. You bring the safeties up, and/or bring pressure, well... Ask OSU how that went.
Defensively, contain Duggan with the boa constrictor method that they're so good at. The secondary can keep up with two downfield threats (Wiley and Johnson). The rest of them don't seem to be fear-inducing.
I hope I'm not under-evaluating this team, but I'm having trouble seeing imminent danger.
December 5th, 2022 at 9:08 AM ^
Can’t wait for the ruination to begin.
December 5th, 2022 at 9:11 AM ^
Bend dont break defense will do well here. have a few quick possession on defense and have our offense start leaning on them. their defense will break.. keep ours fresh. we know, just like us, they're a 2nd half team.
Expecting it to be similar to purdue in "feel", but probably a much closer game. 31-23 good guys