Stings like hell to type this: Ohio St still has reasonable chance of reaching CFP
Makes me sick to my stomach, but OSU still has fair chance of making the CFP...
-The UW/OR game is a play-in game for the #3 CFP seed. OSU will jump whichever team loses this game.
-GA is going to mow down Bama, so OSU moves ahead of Bama.
-If Texas loses, OSU moves ahead of Texas.
-Of all the dominos that must fall for The Great Evil, this is the biggest one: FSU must lose in the ACC champ game.
So, after Bama loses, Texas loses and FSU loses, does the CFP put OSU ahead of FSU? OSU certainly would go ahead of Texas, because TX would have 2 losses. Same for Bama. Does the CFP put 11-1 OSU ahead of 12-1 FSU? OSU had a tougher schedule, and it's single loss was certainly a much better loss than FSU could possibly suffer 6 days from now. Also, will the CFP consider that FSU's bad-ass QB is done for the season, when the CFP tries to decide between FSU and OSU for that coveted #4 CFP spot?
If you put a gun to my head, I would guess a 12-1 FSU gets that #4 spot, but I would not be surprised if The Great Evil backs into the CFP again. Always keep in the back of your mind...it's about the $$$. OSU would generate better TV ratings for a semi-final CFP game vs GA than FSU.
#GoBlue
#Bet
November 26th, 2023 at 3:25 PM ^
If Ohio State players wanted to play in the CFP they should've gone to Michigan.
November 26th, 2023 at 4:42 PM ^
Exactly, they lost. Marvin Harrison’s college career is over
November 26th, 2023 at 3:27 PM ^
Winner of SEC, Michigan, winner of Pac-12, FSU if they win. Texas if they win and FSU loses. Texas has a relativity easy game.
November 26th, 2023 at 3:45 PM ^
Of the 1 loss teams, Texas has the easiest path, because Texas has the easiest championship game.
Oregon, with a single loss, is a lock if Oregon defeats UW.
#GoBlue
November 26th, 2023 at 3:36 PM ^
538 used to make this calculation easy. They're no longer doing it since they moved to ABC News. Sad. I always liked playing with the various outcomes.
November 26th, 2023 at 3:41 PM ^
First, M Go Blue! What an amazing day for Michigan fans everywhere.
I cannot get the sound of Michigan Stadium erupting upon Rod Moore's interception ! Wow !
Second, on topic about tO$u reaching The CPF, like MgoHillbilly said above/below, "No, they don't."
tO$u was living rent free in our collective minds basically since 2001 through most of 2021.
Now, we've ridded ourselves of that unwanted squatter, so why even remotely suggest they'll reach The CFP ?
It's time for t0$u to feel left out, looking in, wondering what could have been, NO glimmer of hope.
Third, props to Desmond calling out the ESPN slappy and Charles dancing/jumping around in front of Urban Liar, ... priceless.
November 26th, 2023 at 3:59 PM ^
John U had some interesting what ifs. See where the CFP sees this Tuesday Night. And finally shuts the asshole Gallaway up. Think he's related to Finebaum.
November 26th, 2023 at 4:08 PM ^
If the precedent has been set that a team playing in a CCG won't be punished for doing so, the odds are very slim. Meaning UGA is likely in no matter what. UM is likely in no matter what. UW/Oregon will be in and that still leaves Texas and FSU.
The argument against FSU would be a lack of QB but is their season void due to that? I don't think so. They still have a strong running game, terrific WRs and a good defense.
If Texas wins they're in but if they lose you still have FSU even if they lose.
It's going to be about precedent and whether the committee will allow OSU to sit at home with what is essentially a bye week and sneak in again, therefore punishing a team that made their CCG. Last year they said they wouldn't and didn't do so with TCU due to that loss being their first. OSU got in because everyone else had two losses. Keeping TCU at #3 was their way of saying they won't punish a team for playing another game.
So could they sneak in? Sure. It's CFB and they tend to do what will make money more than make sense but the path for them is much harder than last year.
November 26th, 2023 at 4:33 PM ^
Okay…so what you describe is a “reasonable “ chance?!?
November 26th, 2023 at 4:34 PM ^
UGA is in no matter what. The only chaos comes if Bama beats them.
Winner of Washington/Oregon is in. FSU wins and they're in unless Bama beats UGA, then they likely get left out.
I think it is highly unlikely OSU gets in unless FSU, Michigan and Texas all lose and Oregon beats Washington.
And even that said, the committee seems to think just playing for the conference championship is a big deal so a 1-loss Washington non-Pac champ would still probably be ranked ahead of OSU.
Of course this COULD happen, but that's a whole lot of chaos.
November 26th, 2023 at 11:40 PM ^
I'm not sure Michigan can "help" ohio get in. Even if we lose to Iowa 50-0 I'm not sure how you could justify moving them ahead of us (well, maybe if we lose by 50....but if we lose by a more "likely" score of 12-9 there's just no way).
Realistically, the best case for them in our game is that we win - by us winning, we're clearly in the playoff whereas if we somehow were to lose, now we're a bubble type team and having more bubbles to deal with doesn't help them. Plus if we lose now their only loss is to a team that lost to Iowa - that looks a whole lot less impressive than losing by an unbeaten team by one score (and not quite covering the spread).
November 26th, 2023 at 5:22 PM ^
Disagree strongly.
Pac12 champion will be in. That was the best conference and those teams have each beat 5 ranked teams convincingly. Who wants to play Oregon right now!?
Then, they can’t take a 1 loss team over a 1 loss conference champion. Then, the odds of Alabama, Texas and FSU all losing is a remote possibility.
November 26th, 2023 at 5:22 PM ^
I blame Louisville for this thread. Had they beaten Kentucky, we would have been guaranteed at least three conference champions with no more than one loss apiece.
November 26th, 2023 at 5:54 PM ^
If Texas wins out they will jump OSU! Bama could still beat UGA! OSU getting in is very slim.
November 26th, 2023 at 6:40 PM ^
Yes, and if wishes were horses, befgers would ride. Why even think about this now?
November 26th, 2023 at 10:15 PM ^
The idiots that designed this current version of the playoff could have fixed this from the beginning with a simple rule. If you are do NOT win your conference, you are not eligible for the CFP. Period. What's that Notre Dame? You don't like that rule? Tough shit, join a conference. But the idiots that run things are incompetent and "just in charge" as Brian likes to say repeatedly.
And to further show how dumb they are, their next fix was to go to 12 playoff teams when 8 would have been perfectly fine. 12 is total overkill, nothing but a pure money grab and complete disregard for the players health and safety, not to mention their status as full-time students.
Tired of these scenarios coming up every year. I have seen on TV tonight that OSU has 52% chance of getting into the playoff based on the number crunchers. And most talking heads are saying if Bama beats Georgia then they both will get it. What sane person would put two teams from the same conference over a conference champion from another legit conference? We are not talking about the MAC here.
These idiots are ruining the sport.
November 26th, 2023 at 11:48 PM ^
Mandating a conference championship is a bad take though. Let's imagine the following happened...
Alabama loses to Auburn (they should have). Alabama then beats Georgia to get in with 2 losses.
Louisville beats Florida state and gets in with 2 losses to garbage teams
OK State beats TX.
Michigan loses to Iowa.
Someone wins Pac12
Obviously Pac12 should get in, but you're going to keep Michigan (1 loss) out and let OK State (3 losses) and Louisville (2 losses) and Alabama (2 losses) all get in? Alabama you could probably make a good argument for in this scenario but Louisville and Oklahoma State?
The better option is just don't schedule a conference championship game. Leave the week open in case such a thing is needed but otherwise this week should be for "as needed games" (lets say hypothetically Iowa was undefeated so there's no obvious winner) and possible play-in games if the playoff has two teams that could make equally compelling arguments. They can play each other somewhere to see who gets in (I'm thinking something like Florida State vs Oregon to see who is #4).