So Do We Play TCU No Matter What?
Assume with USC’s loss, OSU is in at four. A Michigan win and a TCU loss likely doesn’t drop TCU behind OSU given their SOS this season. A Michigan loss and a TCU win means they flip flop, as they likely wouldn’t pair OSU against Michigan in the semis (the rematch in the championship is a tv ratings dream). Both teams lose and I think they stay put, with OSU sliding in at four.
Jack Herer is telling my brain that this makes sense, but tell me what I’m missing.
December 3rd, 2022 at 9:10 AM ^
Especially because OSU gets essentially a first round bye as "punishment" for getting humiliated by us at their home stadium.
December 3rd, 2022 at 12:52 AM ^
Unless TCU gets the brakes beat off them.
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:08 AM ^
By more than 22 to the #2 team in the country?
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:15 AM ^
I'm pulling hard for TCU tomorrow as the very last thing I want to see is both Alabama and OSU in the Playoffs. Don't kid yourselves, both of those teams are mega talented.
December 3rd, 2022 at 2:24 AM ^
Oh, that’s terrifying, however doesn’t it sound great to be one of the teams being listed as peers to those other schools?
To make it even better, Michigan almost doubled up one of those teams, at their place.
December 3rd, 2022 at 12:54 AM ^
I'd like to advance to the finals so I'd prefer to play TCU or weak ass OSU.
Then the two best teams in CFB can play for the championship.
December 3rd, 2022 at 12:55 AM ^
You are missing a Georgia loss...then it gets interesting.
December 3rd, 2022 at 9:36 AM ^
Yup. If Georgia loses, TCU wins, and Michigan wins, Michigan is the #1 seed and TCU is #2. I imagine it would be Georgia 3 and Ohio State 4, but it could switch I guess.
December 3rd, 2022 at 12:56 AM ^
barring TCU getting blown out, I think Michigan will play them.
I don't think the committee wants Michigan playing OSU again so early - for a NC game, it would be crazy ratings, so they would like that more than a repeat of a game from 5 weeks earlier
December 3rd, 2022 at 9:41 AM ^
I think the committee would LOVE to have Michigan-OSU driving the ratings of a late game on New Year's Eve. Since the game is out west, it would set up nicely for them to catch as many as possible all around the country, keeping some who would normally "go out" at home.
December 3rd, 2022 at 12:57 AM ^
You really never know, but I hope that's the case. I'm perfectly happy giving Georgia the chance to pound them and give them a second loss. If by some chance OSU wins and we meet them for the National Championship, so be it.
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:05 AM ^
That’s the perfect scenario. Georgia is a beast even though they’re not as good as last year. Have Ohio take on them while we handle ole TCU that has scrapped their way into pulling out wins. I like our chances in a rematch without a hostile crowd.
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:10 AM ^
I agree with that, but never underestimate the reach around the committee gives to Bama every year regardless. If things go off the rails like last night for Georgia and TCU I could see us go to 1 with a win, Georgia 2, OSU 3 and Bama slithering in.
December 3rd, 2022 at 12:57 AM ^
Seeing OSU fans and players celebrating as if they deserve or earned this is just pathetic.
Soft, born on 3rd, entitled program. Beat them again.
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:03 AM ^
In all honesty a UM-OSU rematch would be a joke. OSU got curbstomped and the advantage would only go their direction which comes from the help of a different team. They’ll get a mulligan for sitting around this weekend. But hard to get excited about playing them again - Michigan is the team w something to lose. Yet, OSU getting into the playoffs by doing nothing is on brand.
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:19 AM ^
After tonight, OSU is one of only 4 teams left with one loss or undefeated. Who would you put in their place?
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:56 AM ^
USC because they played a 13th game and OSU didn’t. If you want to reward OSU for only having 1 loss after Championship week (which they didn’t participate in) then force them to win a 13th game / avoid that 2nd loss. It’s the only way to NOT deliver bullshit results.
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:45 AM ^
No. Utah would be more deserving than USC and they aren’t getting in.
December 3rd, 2022 at 9:43 AM ^
No. Utah is not more "deserving." They have 3 losses.
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:28 PM ^
No, USC is not more "deserving." Utah beat them twice. It's absurd in the face of that to say that USC is the better team.
December 3rd, 2022 at 2:01 AM ^
Bullshit. OSU has everything to lose, like getting curb stomped twice by Michigan in the same season if by some miracle you get by Georgia.
Besides OSU is deservedly, as a one loss team with a decent SOS, makes the playoffs as a top 4 team in the current CFP environment. Embrace the opportunity fergodsakes. Jesus Fucking Christ, I honestly don't get anyone that wouldn't love to see a Michigan vs OSU National Championship Game--That would be some Super Bowl shit.
December 3rd, 2022 at 9:45 AM ^
And I don't get anyone who DOES want that who is a Michigan fan.
December 3rd, 2022 at 10:11 AM ^
I DO NOT want it. The Game is The Game. They can fuck right off after we beat them. Once a year is the exact right number.
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:31 PM ^
I'm with you on everything except the recruiting impact.
I'm not happy that OSU is obviously the fourth team in the playoffs, but OSU isn't in business to make me happy except once per year.
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:04 AM ^
I do think they will work overtime to justify UofM and OSU being in separate brackets however they spin the thing.
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:05 AM ^
Not at all. It's likely but not incredibly so.
If today rested on USC, tomorrow rests on UGA.
If UGA wins it would take a lot of craziness for UM to play anyone but TCU. You'd have to have TCU also lose bad enough for the committee to decide OSU is to jump up 2 spots, one over a 1-loss team that lost in their CCG. If UM loses and TCU wins, you swap them and all is fine. Etc.
If UGA loses:
Assuming that from here out, with a UM win they then jump to 1 and that's OSU's most likely opponent. If UM also loses and TCU wins, TCU is 1 and probably playing OSU. If UM wins and TCU loses, you then have the debate about who is where at 3 & 4 and whether or not The Committee will avoid a rematch so soon.
So it rests most with UGA now much like it rested with USC today. UGA will mean the most in regard to the potential UM - OSU rematch. OSU is now in. Any argument for keeping USC with a loss tonight was destroyed, even if it only had a 5% chance anyway. Now it's 0%. OSU is in.
If chalk holds, all is set. If even one team loses you get a bunch of wild scenarios based on who lost. If two lose it gets even crazier based on which two and, oddly, all three losing probably changes nothing.
December 3rd, 2022 at 6:49 AM ^
If I’m UGA, do I lose on purpose to avoid Ohio in the first round?
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:13 AM ^
Georgias not scared of OSU in any way. Kirby would have a D plan to feast on OSU and their weak ass big 12 offense. Bennet will probably do next to nothing at the next level, but would pick that soft D apart.
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:19 AM ^
Why?
After seeing what UM did to OSU, I don’t see UGA being afraid, they could duplicate that gameplan pretty easily.
December 3rd, 2022 at 7:21 AM ^
December 3rd, 2022 at 9:48 AM ^
What pressure? This isn't last year's Georgia defense. They are okay but I think people are doing the same thing with Georgia that everyone does with OSU. They are mentally matching up against last year's team.
December 3rd, 2022 at 8:10 AM ^
Yep--the Georgia game is big now. If Georgia wins, we almost certainly play TCU no matter what else happens. If Georgia loses, it greatly increases the odds that we play either Georgia or OSU in the semi-finals. I think we pretty much all agree that we'd rather face TCU in round 1, so I'm definitely rooting for Georgia.
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:17 AM ^
Right now I just want to see us defend our Big Ten title.
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:24 AM ^
If OSU had a close loss to us, I could see them being in. But they got blown out at home. If Michigan would have had a close loss, we would be out for good! Makes no sense. What other 1 loss teams are out there? I wonder if the committee will have Alabama jump OSU and have us jump GA, so that we would play bama and GA would play TCU, in hopes of an all SEC championship game.
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:31 AM ^
The four teams are settled. Bama is 40:1 to make it in Vegas (in other words, Vegas will gladly take people's money who see Alabama's name and think they have a shot because they are Alabama).
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:33 AM ^
It's all about money. Getting OSU in with M means more money for everyone. Hence, they will get in.
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:31 AM ^
Missing these scenarios:
1. Georgia loses the SEC championship and Michigan wins, Michigan moves to #1. GA might fall to #2 or #3, not likely to #4.
2. Georgia and Michigan win, but TCU loses and drops to #4 and the committee keeps Michigan at #2 and moves OSU up to #3.
3. If Michigan and Georgia both lose (and TCU wins), they could fall to #2 and #3, in which case they would play each other, and #1 TCU would play #4 Ohio State.
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:33 AM ^
We play Purdue!
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:33 AM ^
I wonder if the committee has still not watched any acc football and would consider Clemson again. Not thinking this out of fear of Ohio State, it's just that the whining and general outcry would be delicious.
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:34 AM ^
The committee has made it clear that Championship games aren't punishments. OSU can't benefit from sitting on their couch while the other teams play. TCU will have more wins than OSU no matter what, and they have a good SOS and more Top25 wins. Ohio State is the 4 no matter what.
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:50 AM ^
Well, they are. Earlier today USC was the 4th team. They didn't put USC 5 and tell them to play their way in. They put them 4 and still said to play your way in. They are 100% a punishment and especially so if you have another power behind you.
You gain an extra game of wear, tear and possible injury for a trophy nobody would refuse to trade for a National Championship.
The problem here is USC was exposed as not just being bad on defense but having an atrocious defense. Any small chance that nobody would be punished for playing in a CCG was killed tonight. No way they still get in and, I repeat, they were in up until 8pm EST.
The funniest part is how we're now going to hear that USC wasn't going to be dropped with a close loss, which is total BS. I guarantee you The Committee will say that USC was in until they saw the way they lost and then that changed things wrt USC.
It just sucks that the odds are quite decent that for the first time ever the winner of The Game will be told to do it again and for bigger stakes. Nobody will care about the game in November unless Michigan wins again. OSU already lost, they have nothing to lose except cause to fire Day (which most of them want right now anyway). Michigan has to win again in order to keep The Game in November from being meaningless.
I don't care if that's coming in future seasons, we're not at 12 teams yet so it sucks. But that's where 2022 college football is today so what can you do? If we meet, we meet.
But we haven't even reached Saturday and one team was just punished for playing in a CCG and another rewarded for not making theirs. USC sucking on defense or not, that's what happened. They were 4, they won't be Sunday.
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:59 AM ^
USC got elevated to 4th bc they made it to their title game. They dropped out bc of their 1 loss in the regular season, combined with this loss. It was a prove-it game for USC, coming out of a weak conference and already having that one loss. TCU, Michigan, and Georgia don't have regular season losses, and they all have strong SOS. That's the difference between USC and the other 3.
December 3rd, 2022 at 2:06 AM ^
That doesn’t make any sense. It would’ve been a prove it game if they had been ranked 5th. The committee already said they were the fourth best team before the find championship game. Which means they got punished for participating and OSU will get rewarded for doing nothing.
December 3rd, 2022 at 2:20 AM ^
They made it to their Conference Championship. That's what initially put them ahead.
There's no other logical explanation for USC being above OSU at the end of last week. They each had one loss. OSU's loss was against a better opponent. OSU's best win was better than USC's best win. OSU had a better SOS. They got rewarded for making their championship, despite having a loss. It's a completely different scenario than TCU, Michigan, and Georgia -- who are all undefeated and in their conference championship.
December 3rd, 2022 at 6:54 AM ^
Also, Williams got injured. CCG was a punishment on multiple levels!
December 3rd, 2022 at 3:01 AM ^
No.
USC and OSU played the same amount of games. Both went 11-1. USC had a one point loss at Utah, OSU had a twenty-two point loss at home to Michigan. They considered SOS and all the other BS they consider.
Both 11-1.
USC was ranked 4th on Tuesday. 4th is in.
OSU was ranked 5th on Tuesday. 5th is out.
By playing an extra game, USC had nothing to gain and everything to lose. They were in, they got their asses kicked by Utah and now they're out.
The reason everyone is going to say they deserve to be out is because they played another game. That's it. There is no more to consider or bend or calculate.
OSU sat at home and without playing another game will now be in The Playoff.
One was punished - even got their Heisman winning QB hurt - and the other rewarded for sitting at home. There is no way to twist this, it's what happened. The math is right there. One team played a 13th game, the other only played 12. The team that played a 13th game is in a worse place for having played that 13th game than before they played it.
End of story.
December 3rd, 2022 at 9:52 AM ^
USC was 4th. Then they played an extra game that they earned. Now they won't be 4th. They got punished for having an extra game.
December 3rd, 2022 at 1:59 AM ^
If what you say is true, then how the hell does OSU make the playoffs at all? By your logic, USC would remain at #4 because the committee isn’t treating conference championship games as punishments.
December 3rd, 2022 at 2:06 AM ^
Because USC had a loss already. The only reason they jumped OSU to begin with is bc they made their championship game and OSU didn't. USC's reg season loss was worse than OSU's reg season loss. They were rewarded for getting to the championship. They were essentially given a win-and-in opportunity, and failed. Michigan, TCU, and Georgia don't have that scenario, bc they are all undefeated AND in their conference championship game. No prove-it game needed. No matter what happens they'll all have more wins than OSU.
December 3rd, 2022 at 3:43 AM ^
Spin it how you will. USC was 4th now they arent. They were punished and OSU was rewarded for sitting home. How is this even a discussion?