Seth Davis posts pre-draft evaluations of top 50 NBA prospects on The Athletic this morning
For those of you who dont follow him every year Seth Davis posts evaluations of the top 50 NBA draft prospects via "Finch". Finch is an anonymous amalgam of 6 NBA scouts and 6 different NBA front office executives all rolled up into one. Let's just say Finch is not a big fan of the three Michigan players leaving early this year to say the least.
Ignas Brazdeikis, 6-7 forward, Michigan, 20. “I’m not a huge fan. He measured smaller than I thought. He’s not all that athletic. I don’t think he can guard a 4, and right now doesn’t have the ability to play the 3. I don’t like drafting Michigan players because I think John Beilein takes average players and makes them look terrific. His guys get drafted high but don’t do much in our league. Lateral quickness is a question. He was terrific the first month of the season, but I don’t know what happened to him. He did not shoot the ball well in the workout I saw. What does he do to really stand out on an NBA floor? He’s a streaky shooter but not a bad one.”
Charles Matthews, 6-6 guard, Michigan, 22. “Breaks my heart that the kid just tore his ACL. He was borderline before the injury. Now I can’t imagine who would draft him. I don’t see anything there. If you’re a wing in our league you have to be able to shoot, and he doesn’t have that yet. He’s more of a two-way guy who you develop. When you don’t improve your jumper after playing for Beilein, that’s a troubling sign. He’s going to have to make it defensively.”
Jordan Poole, 6-5 guard, Michigan, 19. “He should have stayed in school. Doesn’t handle the ball in terms of being to attack off the dribble. He’s going to have to take the long route to the NBA, probably through the G League. Not a fan. Good size but not a great athlete. I’m not convinced he loves basketball. Smooth as heck. Can really pass it. I think he can be a point guard if he gets stronger. Needs to get better as a defender but he’s good. He’s smaller than I thought, really lean and thin. Toughness is his biggest question. I question his decision-making. I thought he was good at times, but at other times I thought Michigan lost games because he was a train wreck.”
At what point did he demonstrate impressive athleticism, even relative to the other players on his own roster?
Talented guy, but athletic? We forget what "athletic" is really like.
Looks pretty accurate to me...but I also thought Caris Levert had no real chance at being a legit NBA player...and have had to eat a lot of crow for that opinion.
I was the exact opposite and thought Caris had the best chance to be a legit NBA player, dude seems super quick for his size and long. I thought THJ wasn't gonna be a legit NBA player.
I thought the same as you. I figured THJ would be in Turkey right now.
I didn't have much of an opinion on Caris given his history with injuries.
Agreed. The only question about LaVert was whether he could stay healthy enough. Still a question actually. Which is a shame cuz he can flat out ball.
Tough but fair.
I agree from the most part on Iggy and Poole's assessments, This quote seems to be quite off base though.
"I don’t like drafting Michigan players because I think John Beilein takes average players and makes them look terrific. His guys get drafted high but don’t do much in our league."
Only top 10 picks in JB's tenure were Stauskas and Burke. I will give him that Nik hasnt panned out (also 2014 was a weak draft class), but Burke seems to be turning things around/is a rotation player.
That 2004-2011 stretch is brutal
Ever time I see McGary’s name it makes me sad for what could have been. He was so awesome in the NCAA tournament, I pictured a couple of years with our own version of Bill Walton. Sigh.
Didn't "Tractor Traylor" get drafted?
** 1998 ok got it
Seems accurate to me. One of those players is above average (LeVert), Hardaway is average to solid. Burke is a 8-12 minute per game guy at best when he is not a Knick. Robinson, Stauskas and Wilson are end of bench fodder/journeymen at best. Too soon to tell on Wagner.
All of those players were good to excellent college players minus Wilson who was fine but had really good measureables.
Eh, Levert has looked like a potential all star when healthy, which has been his biggest issue, obviously. Wilson played like 18 minutes per game on a 1 seed playoff team, so there's that. Otherwise I'd agree.
No mention of McGary or Wilson? I don't follow the NBA, but wonder how those two are faring... I recall Beilein being miffed that Wilson left early.
I believe McGary has set his sights on becoming a pro-bowler (not the NFL kind). No clue how that is going, but his NBA days appear to be over.
Yeah, Wilson backed up a top 5 player in the league and logged 15ish min a game on the number 1 seed in the east. He still has a ton of potential. I personally don't think he has the tenacity to be great but he's the most gifted player of the whole bunch in terms of his combo of skill and physical attributes. He could put it together and he's certainly getting the chance to do so.
Sweet, dude
Accurate, none of those guys could take over a game which is why Burke, Stauskas, and Hardaway were drafted in the first round. The latter two early top 10 picks. Poole could've been there if he didn't get wild and out of control. Out of the three, he definitely needed another year of seasoning which he'll get paid for now in the D league.
Poole took over many games.
Did you play 2K online with him?
Did u even watch Michigan basketball the past 2 years?
Basically every sentence was spot on.
What happens with Matthews now? Assuming he doesn't get drafted or signed, does he just rehab his ACL on his own and try to break in with some team next year?
Those guys gave us some great memories, and whether leaving school works out or not for them, it has been a great 1-3 years watching them play ball. Here’s hoping they get a shot and make the most of their chances.
Seem accurate. Hopefully Matthews gets a chance after rehab. All three will have to work hard to make it.
I don’t like drafting Michigan players because I think John Beilein takes average players and makes them look terrific
Ouch. That........hurts
How is it bad to take average players and make them look good???
Speaking strictly from a coaching perspective (not necessarily winning titles), that is much preferred to the alternative of taking terrific players and making them look . . . terrific.
How is it bad to take average players and make them look good???
I didn't say it was bad. I said It hurts. And by that, I meant it hurts in a couple ways
1. The guy who could understand and embrace his recruiting hand dealt by coaching at UM (recruit clean and accept the recruits you will get will probably be flawed or deficient in some way) and still make a Top 10 program nationally is gone and this statement is salt in the wound
2. There is a perception of UM guys (at least for some scouts/POBO/etc.) at the next level is that they aren't good on their own merits - JB made them that way - which is kind of a shitty thing to say about a kid.
Holy shit, he hit the nail on the head for every single one of these guys.
Finch sounds mad as hell. But that does seem accurate to me. Harsh but true except for the stuff about Poole's heart. He doesn't love basketball? Whatever. Just assess his game and that's it.
Finch....as is Sid Finch...the mythical player Sports Illustrated created who could throw a 125 mph fastball for the Mets in the mid 80's, is a combination of six anonymous scouts and six anonymous FA executives all rolled into one.
The Athletic is a pay site so I cant link the entire article but the consensus is the draft is VERY top-heavy with Zion, Ja & Barrett going 1-3, picks 4-15 being virtually interchangeable and picks 16-50 being hot garbage.
Yes. I do know that the SI "Finch" doesn't actually refer to Peter Finch. I posted that gif because...you know...humor.
"I think he can be a point guard"
ouch
These are reasonable assessments and why Iggy and Poole likely shouldn't have left this year. Personally, I've never been that high on Matthews since he never really learned how to shoot. But I still believe Iggy and Poole have much more potential than these scouting assessments suggest. NBA scouts can be incredibly wrong. They are most impressed by raw athleticism and measurables which lead them to make many huge mistakes. The best player in the league right now, Kawhi Leonard, for example, slipped to #15 behind many complete duds including Jimmer Fredette and some guy named Bismack Biyombo. I thought that was a big mistake at the time. Iggy and Poole both have skill, intangibles and competitiveness and I think they will do better than expected if they get a shot on an NBA roster.
But Kwahi wasn't the same player now compared to when he was drafted. His jumper was awful and clunky. The Spurs shooting coach, Engelland remade his shooting form into a deadly shooter. Also, Kwahi expanded his offensive game where he can handle the ball, shoot off the dribble, score from driving in.
To say that he shouldn't have been drafted at 15 is hindsight especially when he came to the right team/situation. If he had been drafted in the lottery, there's no guarantee that his jumper would've developed.
Yes but a good scout should be able to look beyond the issues you mention and see his underlying ability. That's why they're supposed to be "experts." I'm not a so-called expert but I could tell that he had all star potential at SDSU and was a better prospect than almost all the players drafted ahead of him. He wasn't aggressive offensively but had elite offensive ability. And he had great ability in every other facet of the game. I don't know how anybody could have justified picking Jimmer Freddette or a few others ahead of him.
Anyhow, it just shows that you have to take these scouting opinions with a grain of salt. I've probably watched much more of Poole and Iggy than these scouts and I don't think much of their opinion. They aren't sure bets but they're better prospects than the above opinions suggest.
Even when they look beyond the issues, it takes the right team for a player to blossom. If Kwahi had been drafted #1 overall, his shooting likely wouldn't have developed because they didn't have the coaching staff to do so. The Spurs had the best shooting coach and that's a big reason why Kwahi developed.
It's easy to say in hindsight when Kwahi's shooting developed. His shooting was awful. He shot under 30% and if he didn't develop his shooting, he would be Tony Allen which is fine by itself. But at top 10? that's a gamble.
I remember that draft distinctly. People were legit shocked Leonard fell that far. He was a fairly consensus top 7-10 prospect that year.
I know this is going to sound petty, but I will get a good chuckle if Iggy and Poole dont get drafted. No way in hell they should have declared. I will jump for joy if Charles gets drafted.
#TheMichiganFanDiffererence
#dumbdecisions
we all get it that those two in particular probably made very unwise decisions re: NBA. but they're michigan guys and even if they weren't we'd do better to not giggle at kids that end up flailing on a big decision. the difference in their life trajectories by not finishing school or at least getting another year or two of college hoops is likely dramatic, and not dramatically improved.
I have no issue with Iggy leaving, but Poole leaving was just idiotic. I'll be actively rooting for him to go undrafted.
All Michigan fans who actually watch the NBA would have told you the same thing. Athletic wing players are a dime a dozen and none of our guys were particularly athletic. 3 NBA players don't lose 3 times to a hobbled Michigan state.
Wing players either need to be knockdown shooters or great defenders. 3 and D. None of these guys were particularly great at either cept for Matthews on D who would be a bit undersized at the next level
Wagner who we could always call on to make a key bucket had trouble getting minutes on a bad Lakers team. Says it all.
I was surprised by two things... the first being Iggy declaring.... another year in college would have served him very well, and I think he slips in the first round. Maybe I'm delusional, and maybe his strengths stemmed from the fact hes older and physically more mature than his peers.
And the second thing that surpised me here, was that somewhat sour assessment, for it seems that hes better than that assessment.
I think it may be a little too harsh, but it's mostly truthful.
The NBA is just such a hard league to make it in. The talent is the highest of all the major sports, and there aren't many spots.
I know that this is just a composite, but the lack of internal consistency gets to me all the same.
Good size but not a great athlete...He’s smaller than I thought, really lean and thin
And yes, I'm sure there is some "he's a tall guy but real thin", but then why not just keep it consistent in the same vicinity of the paragraph.
Anyway, none of these evaluations are particularly jarring. Though the quip about how Beilein makes average guys look great is a bit annoying; outside of Stauskas and maybe Burke, is there a guy who he helped put in the league who really underwhelmed compared to his position? Wilson was a fringe lottery guy who's getting minutes on one of the best teams in the league, Hardaway Jr. is an average starter who is going to make a ton of money, Levert is a key piece for an improving Brooklyn team, GR III is an athletic guy who has stuck around on a couple of teams. Stauskas has been a bust (which isn't totally unsurprising since he's struggled to get his shot off against NBA defenders and that was the one thing he was supposed to be good at), but everyone else has basically been as good as expected, and I'd argue both Levert and Hardaway have out-performed their draft positions generally speaking.
Pretty damn accurate assessments IMO.
Davis is an idiot.
Good thing we don’t have Beilein as a coach anymore, he was awful and should have been replaced sooner. I hope Bakich is next, he hasn’t done anything to prove himself and can’t teach fundamentals.