Roundup of various Championship Game Predictions
After reading/watching various random previews and predictions, thought I'd summarize the predictions.
One thing I noted, though, is that Michigan played one of their sloppiest games of the season against Alabama and barely won. Washington played one of their cleanest offensive games of the season against Texas and barely won. This was oft-mentioned in the previews.
The video previews and predictions I watched:
- Josh Pate's prediction: Michigan (not to lose)
- College Football Nerds prediction: both guys pick Michigan by 7 (34-27 and 31-24)
- Colin Cowherd prediction: Michigan
- Bear Bets prediction: their entire panel picks Michigan to win
- ESPN (Rece Davis and some dude name Pete something): both lean Michigan, but without conviction
- Joel Klatt prediction: Michigan
Written previews and predictions:
- CBS Sports writers: 8 of their 13 writers pick Washington to win. Michigan avg MOV = 7 points. Washington avg MOV = 4.6. Higher confidence in the Michigan picks than the UW picks.
- Fox Sports writers: 3 of 4 picked Washington to win.
- College Football News: Michigan 38-Washington 20 (I knew I always liked that Pete Fiutak)
- ESPN writers/personalities: 32 of 48 pick Washington. How credible are these guys? Some jackass from the SEC Network predicted that Washington would win 63-14. Get a brain morans. Oh did I forget to hyperlink this? My bad...
- USA Today writers: 4 of 6 pick Michigan to win.
- The Athletic writers: 11 of 20 pick Michigan to win.
Why does it make me feel good that all the "writers" are picking Washington? B/c they're paid to be contrarian and provocative. And b/c they also all picked Alabama to win.
What, you expected me to work today?
January 8th, 2024 at 2:56 PM ^
I predict a Michigan victory in Jim Harbaugh's final game as Michigan's head coach, and I'm at peace with that.
January 8th, 2024 at 3:05 PM ^
Honestly, if Harbaugh completes a perfect 15-0 season and wins us a national championship, he will have earned the right to leave whenever and however he wants. He could announce his departure tomorrow while defecating on the diag and screaming "F**K YOU ALL, BITCHES!" and I would tip my cap to him and tell him good luck.
January 8th, 2024 at 3:14 PM ^
If the right to leave needs to be earned, he earned it when the University humiliated him by giving him the choice of taking a pay cut or being fired and leaving Michigan being seen as a failure. He doesn’t owe them a damn thing.
January 8th, 2024 at 3:47 PM ^
It goes both ways in life. Jim was paid top dollar for the potential for what he could do at Michigan based on past results. It should not have been a surprise the results took longer than expected given the hole the program was actually in when he was hired. The pay cut was in-line with the performance at the time. It wasn't just the 2020 results. There were issues within the program still at that point, some because of Harbaugh. Now there have been three years of exceptional performance, and from the sounds of it, Michigan is willing to pay top dollar again.
If one wants to be upset at the middle segment and not appreciate the other two segments, that's a personal issue, but I would say it lacks maturity.
January 8th, 2024 at 4:06 PM ^
Through the six seasons that included the 2020 Covid insanity season, Harbaugh went 49-22, 34-16 in conference, and won 10 games three times. In the seven seasons that preceded his arrival, Michigan went 46-42, 24-32 in conference and only won more than eight games once. Even before the last three years, he’d already significantly elevated the program. No, he didn’t deserve to be treated like that. Maybe you can think of another coach who was forced to take a pay cut, but I can’t.
January 8th, 2024 at 4:19 PM ^
This seems like a useless conversation, on a day like today.
January 8th, 2024 at 4:46 PM ^
I know. Let's talk about something like politics instead.That seems more worthwhile.
Enjoy the moment.
January 8th, 2024 at 5:38 PM ^
It doesn't matter what Michigan's record was pre- and post-Harbaugh when looking at his contract and the value derived from it. Compare his results with coaches being paid similar amounts during that time.
Here's the list:
These were the top paid coaches from 2015 - 2019. Salaries fell off a cliff after these four during this time period so there was no reason to look at more.
Saban: $8,403,558 avg. annual salary, 66 - 6 record, 91.7% winning percentage
Harbaugh: $7,604,000 avg. annual salary, 47 - 18 record, 72.3% winning percentage
Meyer: $6,473,560 avg. annual salary, 48 - 6 record, 88.9% winning percentage (2015 - 2018, something happened so he couldn't coach in 2019)
Swinney: $6,422,730 avg. annual salary, 69 - 5 record, 93.2% winning percentage
It's pretty clear when you look at the pay vs. the results why one was offered a lower salary when their contract was up.
I can't find another coach forced to take a pay cut because one typically is not offered, they get fired (see East Lansing).
Like I said, I believe Harbaugh is now being offered top dollar again based on his recent results. Yes the dip in pay on the second contract hurts the ego a little, but it was also understandable given what his benchmarks were delivering at the time.
Yay for things getting better and hopefully they will be for many years to come.
January 8th, 2024 at 6:57 PM ^
Michigan, with its location, academic standards, and disinclination to pay players when that was against the rules, wasn’t comparable to any of those schools. Im sure feels loyalty to the players no the football program. I doubt he feels any toward Warde Manuel or the administration.
January 8th, 2024 at 3:25 PM ^
Today I really couldn't care less if he stays or goes. It's all about this game, this chance at a National Championship. I'll care about the rest tomorrow.
January 8th, 2024 at 3:26 PM ^
Even if we lose Im at peace with him going. You only have one life to live and Jim clearly wants another crack at a Super Bowl. I couldnt have asked for much more from his time here if this is it
January 8th, 2024 at 4:33 PM ^
I'm not at peace with him going regardless of the outcome. The best case scenario is he stays for another decade plus and retires as the winningest coach in Michigan history.
January 8th, 2024 at 4:53 PM ^
I agree - and he is advocating important changes for student-athletes. All of that dies if he returns to the NFL because I don't see other coaches stepping up on that issue (Dabo Swinney? Ryan Day? James Franklin)
January 8th, 2024 at 5:35 PM ^
Exactly continue to build your legacy at UM. Win multiple NCs. Retire with all kinds of records and have something named after you.
Seems like people can’t just stay in one place anymore and continue success. Jim can do what he wants I just think there’s a lot to be said about staying at Michigan
January 8th, 2024 at 2:57 PM ^
I think it'll be lower scoring. M 33-15
January 8th, 2024 at 3:34 PM ^
If Michigan holds that offense to 15 points... I would make some wager here but I'm not willing to eat a sock or anything. I just don't think that's a reasonable ask or likely to happen.
Edit: well fuck me sideways you crazy SOB KNEW it!
January 8th, 2024 at 5:11 PM ^
What about eating a lemon? Wagering the entirety of one whole dollar? That's how the MGoBoard rolls.
January 9th, 2024 at 12:38 AM ^
Congrats on a pretty close prediction!
January 8th, 2024 at 2:57 PM ^
Out of all of those, Klatt's the only one I would normally pay attention to. Since you missed Connelly:
SP+ projection: Michigan 33.5, Washington 21.2
January 8th, 2024 at 4:37 PM ^
This is very close to what I've got: 34-24. Special teams cleans up all their foibles from the last game. We're going to see Michigan's run game bludgeon the UW d-line 5-6 yards at a time.
Both fan bases should feel that their teams are teams of destiny. UW hasn't lost a game in 21 straight games. Michigan hasn't lost a game in 14 straight games. I believe the next best winning streak as of today is 6 or 7 games so these two teams have truly separated themselves.
I feel good about this game most of the time. The only times that I don't are when I envision Joe Burrow and his LSU Tigers streaking all over the field putting up 45+ points every game. This UW team reminds me a little bit of that team. People who know more than I seem to think that Kalen DeBoer is a genius and this will be his coming out party. Eeeeek.
January 8th, 2024 at 5:02 PM ^
While we're doing computer projections:
- Massey: Michigan 31, Washington 24
- Sagarin: Michigan 27, Washington 22
- Fremeau: Michigan 32, Washington 24
January 8th, 2024 at 2:59 PM ^
Thanks for this summary. I was loathe to watch anymore of anything on YT or any other media. MGOBLOG: The Michigan vs Everybody source.
GO BLUE you Lovely Mfer's. LFG!!! Sorry I am a sailor too, it never really leaves you.
January 8th, 2024 at 3:01 PM ^
These teams are so different that it is really hard to pick a winner.
The most concerning aspect of the game to me is that Washington is a "run and gun" team with good protection. A lot of times you see a team with all kinds of explosion but they are weak in the trenches so a good defensive front can wreak havoc in the backfield and set them back. Penix had all day against Texas, who does have a good pass rush.
On the other side of the ball, outside of a Corum injury (and maybe still in that case) I don't see a scenario where Michigan does not run the ball down UWs throat.
Key matchup - Michigan DBs v. Pass Interference. Michigan is happily grabby and they are good at it. If that is getting called really closely that could be the difference maker. That being said, if it is DPI v one of those 40 yarders that Texas was giving up, by all means, interfere.
January 8th, 2024 at 3:22 PM ^
Your comments about Washington worry me only because I am a long term Michigan fan used to seeing spread offense shred Michigan's supposedly good defense.
What brings me back to center is the past 2-3 years of actual results.
I keep asking myself, "Is this year's Washington team significantly better in every facet than the OSU teams Michigan has beaten the past few years?" This is what makes me feel better about tonight.
Yes, Washington could score a quick 14 - 21 points and put Michigan in a hole like TCU last year. It's also just as likely it's a close game with a half time score around 14-10 or 17-13 and Michigan pulls away in the second half winning 37-28.
January 8th, 2024 at 3:34 PM ^
Unfortunately, this year's Washington team is significantly better coached than the OSU teams we've beaten recently.
January 8th, 2024 at 3:52 PM ^
I've weighed that factor as well and that's the closest thing to concern I have. I think the mitigating factor is Washington's coaching staff really only had bowl season and one week to prepare for Michigan where Michigan has been prepared for Washington's style for three years. And this year's Michigan team doesn't seem to be taking anyone for granted based on last year's experience.
January 8th, 2024 at 4:24 PM ^
One other distinguishing feature is that this game will be played indoors. That helps Washington. We're a team built better for the elements. I know that none of the past three editions of The Game have been in terrible weather but it still plays a part of the game - sudden gusts of wind, sun shining in players' eyes, even the sound of the environment. I still see maize and blue confetti raining down in the end in my mind but I think the indoor factor will help Washington more than us.
January 8th, 2024 at 4:57 PM ^
I think your sentiment about an indoor stadium is correct, but The Game in 2021 was played in pretty cold and somewhat snowy weather. It was one of the many things that the buckeyes tried to blame for the loss.
January 8th, 2024 at 3:40 PM ^
Michigan is in a better position to pull themselves out of early holes than they were last year if that does happen. Jj is better, receivers are better and we have a more developed passing attack this year.
January 8th, 2024 at 4:31 PM ^
One dynamic you've sort of touched on, in big games like this, the refs tend to largely swallow their whistles. They try to avoid having penalties decide the game. That may hurt us if the Washington OL holds our pass rushers on every play. OTOH, it may help our defensive backs if they get physical with the Washington receivers. We'll see.
January 8th, 2024 at 3:07 PM ^
I thought that most of the CBS writers picked Washington to cover, but Michigan to win. Maybe I was misreading.
January 8th, 2024 at 4:01 PM ^
I counted the ones who picked Washington to win straight up.
January 8th, 2024 at 3:11 PM ^
I think sports writers are picking Washington in greater numbers because virtue signaling purposes, not football analysis.
January 8th, 2024 at 3:17 PM ^
This ^^^
January 8th, 2024 at 3:28 PM ^
And I think since all the fancy stats point Michigan, some writers feel the desire to be a little contrarian because saying “Michigan by 9” is boring
January 8th, 2024 at 4:23 PM ^
"Be careful who you make a villain!"
January 8th, 2024 at 3:11 PM ^
My favorite prediction is Bill Connelly's with Michigan -12.5.
January 8th, 2024 at 3:13 PM ^
I mean, one of the guys picking Washington for CBS is Jerry Palm, a guy who is bad at predicting outcomes for a sport he purportedly follows religiously (NCAA basketball). So yeah, not really trusting his analysis around a secondary sport.
What seems to be lost in all of this analysis is what the OP noted early on - Michigan played poorly and won and Washington played about as well as you could expect and barely won. Washington feels like a team of destiny in the way TCU felt last year; play a bunch of games close and pull some stuff out of your hat to win in the first playoff game but they've only had a week to prepare to UM and there's really not a team like Michigan in the Pac-12 that they've played. You can at least look at OSU and Alabama and say those are offensively-dynamic teams with some high-level WR talent, though not at UW's level. And Washington got a ton of luck on 50/50 balls against Texas; the fact those throws had to be on the money to get caught was a bit surprising because I figured UW would just run a track meet against the Longhorns.
They've game-planned for a team like this and done well, which Washington got pushed around on the ground by a good-but-not-great Texas rushing attack. It's going to be a close game but I like that UM has a system that's held up against good teams and they should be able to execute it well.
January 8th, 2024 at 4:04 PM ^
Yeah, the one thing that gives me comfort is that Michigan has preparing for an offense like this all year while Washington hasn't seen an offense like ours all year. Given that and the week prep time (although I'm sure both teams did some lighter advance work in the month leading up to the CFP), it's hard not to like our chances.
January 8th, 2024 at 3:14 PM ^
Get a brain morans
Well, isn't that hypercritical thinking? :P
I jest, but in regard to the topic, someone will be right, and someone will be wrong. Obviously, we hope that the good guys come out on top. Go Blue!
January 8th, 2024 at 3:15 PM ^
The higher % that wanted the scandal be more than it was the higher % predict Washington to win. Crazy how that works.
January 8th, 2024 at 3:15 PM ^
The fact that College Football Nerds picked us makes me very nervous…
Beat writers are feelingsball bullshit artists. They are paid by narrative, not by any expertise. If Klatt and Connelly and Vegas were against us, that’s one thing. But we’re being favored by the people who have money and gravitas. I’ll take that
January 8th, 2024 at 3:21 PM ^
Their model picked us to beat Bama...right before they disregarded it and picked Bama. (I gleaned this from MGoComments so I may not be quite right. Never watched/read/followed their stuff.)
January 8th, 2024 at 3:38 PM ^
I passively schadenfollow just to see them exposed as the least ball-knowing of all ball-un-knowers
(see also: 'Michigan / Conor Stalions tried to murder Hendon Hooker')
January 8th, 2024 at 4:26 PM ^
It always amazes me how some people can stare at data which supports one conclusion, and these people - with a straight face and absolute conviction - can state that the facts support the exact opposite position.
January 8th, 2024 at 4:29 PM ^
It happens when they've been mainlining ess-ee-see blather their whole lives
January 8th, 2024 at 4:52 PM ^
More ball-unknowing than the anonymous coach who watched Indiana stuff us 7-52?
January 8th, 2024 at 3:16 PM ^
I don't care what any of them think. Michigan will hoist that trophy tonight.
January 8th, 2024 at 3:17 PM ^
Was listening to Jim Rome today and Stewart Mandel was on. Stewart picked Michigan to win. Rome has already hit Washington and the points but didn't say who he thought would actually win the game. He's no fan of Harbaugh so if he's not coming out and saying Washington will win, that strikes me that he thinks Michigan will. And Rome was already throwing out the 'asterisk' talk too. Ugh.
I've got Michigan 34, Washington 23.
January 8th, 2024 at 3:21 PM ^
Yeah Jim Rome detests Harbaugh. He is actually worse than Feinbaum in substance, but can at least occasionally be funny.