Revisiting Michigan at Nebraska 2021
Rewatching takeaways-
- Michigan should have put this away early after getting a 14 point lead
- Cade threw a bad TO in the 3rd quarter which was the turning point in Nebraska getting back in the game.
- U of M stopped themselves on several drives with false start penalties- third time Nebraska defense was called for faking snap count (clapping I think)
- Martinez was really good in this game 90+ QBR and was fast and elusive in the pocket and as a runner
- Nebraska has some clever play designs that got players wide open for long gains and TDs
- Cade was solid- his release is really low, several passes knocked down. His lack of velocity on his throws make them catchable but also gave the defense time to respond on both short and long throws
- Running game started slowly and then was getting consistent big gains in the 2nd half
- Corum was good but Corum 2.0 is a power up from 2021
September 29th, 2023 at 10:59 AM ^
Box Score- Martinez's QBR was 86.6 not 90+
Midway through the 4th quarter Nebraska had a 69.4% win probability (Yikes)
September 29th, 2023 at 1:49 PM ^
Nebraska had a 69.4% win probability
I don't know how these are calculated, but anyone who paid attention to Nebraska under Scott Frost knew that was nonsense.
September 29th, 2023 at 11:01 AM ^
A good place to bring up the "Scott Frosty" post. I hate Nebraska - but it is harder to despise them without that drunk loser Frost at the helm. Screw him - led the longest choke streak as a head coach ever. Ya hate to see it...
https://fanbuzz.com/college-football/big-ten/wendys-twitter-roasts-nebraska/
September 29th, 2023 at 11:05 AM ^
Yes- I miss hating on Scott Frost! Unfortunately Matt Rhule seems to be pretty likeable.
Fortunately we have this gem of a letter from Scott's mom (Carol Frost) she sent to the Wolverine
To: Chris, John, Michael, Matt, and Josh
From: Scott's Mom
Re: Nebraska Cornhuskers 32 -- Michigan Wolverwhines 28
Thank you for reminding me which National Championship my Scotty won for Nebraska in the 1990's. At my age, 60, I get mixed up occasionally on which one of the three National Championships my Scotty won for Nebraska in the 1990's (It's hard for me to remember because they win them so often.)
Sometimes I find myself feeling sorry for the Wolverwhines who only win National Championships in Football every 50 years or so. I guess I didn't get so hung up on the National title that Nebraska won in 1997 because they won 3 in a four year span in the 1990's and 5 in a twenty-eight year span between 1970 and 1997. I remember the first one they one in 1970 because I graduated from Nebraska in 1966. I guess if we only won the National title every 50 years, I would have been upset, too, when Nebraska and my Scotty stole the show from the Wolverwhines in the 1990's.
By the way, Scotty sends his best. He's retired from the NFL now after 5 years. I think he said he was making about $346,000.00 a year while in the Pros, which is probably more than all of you poor misled Wolverwhines make in a year combined.
Sorry to hear that the Wolverwhines lost to the Cornhuskers in the Alamo bowl. Hope poor Lloyd doesn't lose his job. Seems like a lot of teams we beat this year lost their coaches. The maze, black, and blue will have other years. I expect you'll win another National Championship in Football around the year 2046. Hope you all find enough to write about between now and then.
Best Regards,
Carol Frost
1968 Olympian, Mexico City
September 29th, 2023 at 11:18 AM ^
I really hate that cunt.
And I don't care who the coach is, or how likeable he is, fuck Nebraska. Never should have let them join the Big 10.
September 29th, 2023 at 12:17 PM ^
No damn way that letter is real. I don't believe a former players mom is miserable enough to whip up something as bad as that shit there.
September 29th, 2023 at 1:50 PM ^
Truth can be stranger than fiction.
September 29th, 2023 at 11:04 AM ^
2023's team will go through Nebraska like
September 29th, 2023 at 11:09 AM ^
i just remember that we were lucky to win because of that bizarre fumble and weird clock management by frost. Yes, you make your own luck, but... woof. we should have lost.
September 29th, 2023 at 11:37 AM ^
Without watching, I remember Cade blowing it with a bad pick, but getting saved by a forced fumble on defense when the refs didn't blow a play dead or something.
September 29th, 2023 at 1:24 PM ^
A bad pick that should have been an offside call, but you have to pretty much grant the other team one INT on the road, at night, in a loud/tough stadium. He shrugged it off and put UM in a position to win.
September 29th, 2023 at 11:53 AM ^
We were lucky to win but they weren't lucky to get a free TD on a blatant illegal formation? Come on, man.
September 29th, 2023 at 1:54 PM ^
Also Refs didn't hold the snap on 3rd and goal when Nebraska subbed late and the D wasn't set . Frosty was pushing every rule he could in that game.
September 29th, 2023 at 2:08 PM ^
you're complaining about an illegal formation? the game was on the line and that weird fumble recovery by Ross --- only weird in that it just seemed like Nebraska had the chance to finish the game off and they ran into a crowded line and it got ripped out.
Also super weird that normally this bullshit "progress was stopped" whistle gets blown the second someone touches the offensive player... and that was very lucky that whistles had NOT blown it dead.
We were lucky that we escaped unscathed, similar to Illinois last year. Things had to break our way a bit - so goes it.
That was also a Frost special - losing a 1 score game in heartwrenching fashion. please let us not make that the case this weekend. end it early
September 29th, 2023 at 5:01 PM ^
I'm confused: why is it not okay to complain about an illegal formation, when the play resulted in a long touchdown pass, and--to top it off--the player who caught the pass was ignored by the defense precisely because he wasn't a legal receiver on the play? (This, at least, was the argument at the time.)
Moreover, while refs sometimes have a hair-trigger on blowing a play dead when there's a pileup of players, we've seen countless occasions on which UM running backs have almost had their progress stopped, only to keep churning and have O-linemen push the pile another five yards--and the refs are happy to let the process play out.
The refs rightly didn't blow the Martinez fumble play dead because his legs were still moving and his progress hadn't been clearly stopped when Hawkins stripped the ball. It only looks more questionable from the side camera angle, because the pile does stop moving at some point with no whistle, because the ball is already on the ground. I was just shocked at the time that not one of the refs lost his composure and blew the play dead, by failing to notice that the ball was out--which might have negated Hawkins' run and recovery.
In the end, why should we count ourselves lucky precisely because the refs did their job correctly, or--when they didn't--their mistake hurt us?
September 29th, 2023 at 11:10 AM ^
Weird and bad and annoying things happen during night games.
September 29th, 2023 at 1:24 PM ^
Sometimes, sure. Even so, it doesn't seem nearly as pervasive anywhere else as it does at Kinnick. When they built Kinnick, they probably only moved the gravestones a la "Poltergeist". That might be the problem.
September 29th, 2023 at 2:04 PM ^
It's unquestionable to me that Kinnick is built on top of a pet semetary.
September 29th, 2023 at 11:19 AM ^
I remember Cade underwhelming early on but playing well enough in the second half and getting some nice completions. The defense got got by some good playcalls but also just missed assignments and tackles as well as bad luck (I think Martinez threw 2 passes that basically hit UM corners in the hands and either were dropped or caught by a Nebraska player anyway). The UFR on defense was a trip.
September 29th, 2023 at 12:06 PM ^
I think of that game more in terms of a team win - I think Cade was spot-on in his post-game interview.
I thought I remember the Offense UFR being more of a trip. Also sad to see the Gifycat embeds broken. Messes with a lot of great content on this site
September 29th, 2023 at 1:08 PM ^
Yeah, Gifycat being gone sucks; I remember some of the plays referenced but not all of them.
The offense's UFR was absolutely also a trip, but it was more "predictable" in that the complaints were "why are the reads off with the starting QB?" and "why didn't the receivers catch the ball more?" It was funny reading the discussion of his pick, which absolutely was bad but didn't seem much different than the first pick McCarthy threw against BGSU. Obviously a much bigger stage and context but sometimes the QB and the receiver both make mistakes.
Anyway, excited to see this game being incredibly boring and predictable.
September 29th, 2023 at 11:38 AM ^
"Nebraska has some clever play designs that got players wide open for long gains and TDs"
If memory serves, at least 2 of those should have been called back for illegal formation because they had TEs lined up as ineligible who caught passes.
September 29th, 2023 at 11:54 AM ^
Not sure about two but their first TD was a blatant illegal formation.
September 29th, 2023 at 11:45 AM ^
one of Nebraska's "creative plays" was an illegal formation that bluffed having more eligible receivers than was legal against man coverage. I'm apparently still steamed about that.
September 29th, 2023 at 11:47 AM ^
Cade's interception came on a play where Nebraska jumped offsides and no flag was thrown.
Michigan should have put the game away early but had multiple touchdowns overturned (correctly) on review in the first half so they settled for field goals. Four different plays got reviewed in the second quarter.
Nebraska's first touchdown was scored where they were lined up in an illegal formation (too many men in the backfield) so Michigan literally had no one to cover the TE out of the backfield. Refs didn't catch it.
Nebraska's offensive play calling was very creative in the second half.
Nebraska in 2021 put on a clinic for how to have a light show.
Hasan Haskins hurdled a fool on the longest play of the day.
Blake Corum ate corn in the endzone.
Jake Moody was 4 for 4 on field goals, including the game tying and game winning field goals in the 4th quarter.
Martinez fumbled trying to move the pile forward rather than going down after he got the first down. It was a Brad Hawkins strip and scoop.
September 29th, 2023 at 11:55 AM ^
Cade's interception came on a play where Nebraska jumped offsides and no flag was thrown.
Correct. Amusingly, the narrative in the stands was that the referees favored Michigan because they were trying to help the Big Ten make the playoff.
A cursory look after the fact showed that Nebraska fans are just as delusional as every other fanbase's. :)
September 29th, 2023 at 12:19 PM ^
How has no one mentioned that this was one of the first (if not THE first) instance of Haskins hurdling a fool?
September 29th, 2023 at 1:08 PM ^
I believe the first was the 2019 Notre Dame rainstorm game. I was in the stands for it!
September 29th, 2023 at 4:16 PM ^
Not the first instance of Haskins hurdling fools, but what was unique was that he ran for another 30 yards after he hurdled!
September 29th, 2023 at 12:20 PM ^
Well, if you're committed to doing this and have the technology, here are a few pieces of advice:
-Do not meet your past self. Certainly don't kill him.
-Do not sleep with you own mother. This is mostly because you probably look pretty similar to 2021 you still and your mom would recognize you and it would get really awkward.
-COVD was bad in 2021; get vaccinated before you go!
-Invest in a company called OpenAI by any means necessary.
September 29th, 2023 at 12:24 PM ^
That game was annoyingly frustrating. We dominated the 1st half, made a goal line stop, and still led only 13-0. There was a time that season where the red-zone offense struggled to get TDs. It wasn't until later that we begin using Schoon on crossing routes by the goal line to break through (see Indiana game).
I remember the illegal formation play, later on followed by the Cade pick and their score the next play.
Four TDs allowed by the D, albeit one on a short drive. It was our worst half of football defensively, except for the meltdown vs KW3 (3 TDs in the last 18 minutes).
I loved how Harbs after the game talked about how much the red crowd wanted to storm the field after an upset, but NOT TONIGHT, NOT AGAINST THIS TEAM.
I agreed with Cade after the game that some other UM teams would have lost this one. 2016 Iowa game felt like we were having a repeat until the big strip.
September 29th, 2023 at 1:58 PM ^
Cade kept saying that during the season, but I didn't care for it. No need to diminish past Michigan teams. Winning championships can come down to very small margins. By all means, the 2016 team should have been in Indianapolis, playing for the league title and CFP bid.
Give the 2021 team a worse placekicker than Moody, and the Nebraska game is probably a loss. Then, blowing that 16-point lead at MSU would have eliminated us from the title race.
September 29th, 2023 at 12:25 PM ^
My daughter and I went to the game. We had a great time. Lincoln is a tough place to play. They have a rabid fan base but classy unlike certain other places that do not need to be mentioned. It wasn't our best performance of 2021 but we had a ginormous cinnamon roll for breakfast and brought home the W.
September 29th, 2023 at 12:30 PM ^
This was one of those stupid games. I feel no need to revisit it
September 29th, 2023 at 12:39 PM ^
That game reminded me somewhat of the game the other week. Just weird wonkiness.
September 29th, 2023 at 12:50 PM ^
Fun game to watch, although as many here have said, that was a game Michigan really should've put away after it went up by two scores. Cade's pick let them right back into the game, but in his defense, he shook it off, went right back out there on the next series and drove them down the field.
Had to agree with Cade's assertion at the postgame. For previous Michigan teams, if they got backed into a corner like that, its probably a game they lose, but the culture shift that has taken place since the 2020 season has been truly surreal. And Cade, regardless of what you think of how he handled the situation as he walked out the door, was a big part of making that happen. So he'll always have my respect for that.
That game, in some ways, truly felt like Scott Frost's last stand. This was a game he knew he had to have, because Nebraska's season as a whole was still very much in play and possible for being a success. But it needed to start with this game and this opportunity specifically. At home, under the lights, against a top-10 opponent. Win this, and everything will begin to fall into place.
And they almost did.
I think Michigan took Nebraska's best shot that night, but when Nebraska went down, I think that was somewhat the "point of no return" for Scott Frost's Nebraska program.
September 29th, 2023 at 2:15 PM ^
Had to agree with Cade's assertion at the postgame. For previous Michigan teams, if they got backed into a corner like that, its probably a game they lose.
I think his quote was along the lines of 'past Michigan teams would have lost this game'. It wasn't all that true.
The goal line stand at Minnesota in 2015 was insanely impressive. Rudock went out and backup Speight finished the game under center. Then they stopped Minnesota twice on the goal line. More impressive, if you ask me.
Even the Army game in 2019 was gutsy. You could dismiss Army because of the brand vs Nebraska, but at least they had more than 2 wins against FBS teams. But the refs blew a HUGE fumble IIRC.
There was Michigan at Northwestern in 2018, M00N game, Dileo slide, and my favorite- DG to Rountree in 2013.
Michigan has had its share of blunders and disappointments, but all of us know we've had some insane and improbably wins that we've gutted out with valiant resolve. Remember Denard's coming out party and then UTL? Those were games where the quarterback actually put the team on his back. Hell, even tiny Tate worked his magic in 2009.
And Cade, regardless of what you think of how he handled the situation as he walked out the door, was a big part of making that happen. So he'll always have my respect for that.
Was he part of the change that made that happen?
We know that he was a locker room cancer who quit on the team when things didn't go his way. The team and locker room continued to get better when he left and didn't skip a beat, that doesn't typically happen when you lose a captain. It was best for Michigan for Cade to leave.
More is coming out about how Cade was and the negative impact he had on the locker room. "He treated that man (JJ) like trash".
People forget that he called Joe Milton "“an extremely good practice player” in an SI article. It's popular to throw shade on Milton and people subscribe to that narrative. The facts are that Joe played 3 games with a broken throwing hand in 2020. Outside of those 3 games, Joe has been 230-379 (60.7%) 3,410 24 tds 3 ints and 8.997 yards per attempt over the course of 24 games. The three games we judge him on, the broken hand games are a statistical outlier (15-34 (44.1%) 208 yards 0 tds and 2 ints). Those practice player's numbers are objectively better than cade's career numbers of 310-508 (61.0%) 3,640 25 tds 10 ints and 7.17 yards per attempt.
That brings me to the on field difference cade made? Was he a big part of the 2021 success? I did a statistical analysis of 2021 and compared cade's numbers to other B1G qb's performances against common opponents and he was just average.
Based on the calculated total scores using the relative performance in each metric, we have the following rankings of the quarterbacks:
- C.J. Stroud - Total Score: 7.58
- Taulia Tagovailoa - Total Score: 3.82
- Sean Clifford - Total Score: 1.40
- Adrian Martinez - Total Score: 0.86
- Cade McNamara - Total Score: −0.03
- Payton Thorne - Total Score: −1.03
- Graham Mertz - Total Score: −1.27
- Ryan Hilinski - Total Score: −1.33
- Spencer Petras - Total Score: −3.89
- Noah Vedral - Total Score: −7.38
Observations:
- Cade McNamara is ranked 5th out of 10 quarterbacks.
- He has a near-zero total score, indicating that his overall performance is quite average compared to the other quarterbacks when playing against the same opponents.
- C.J. Stroud leads the ranking with a significantly higher total score, indicating an overall better performance against the same opponents.
Analysis:
This analysis shows that Cade McNamara is an average to slightly below average quarterback compared to the others in the list when considering performance against the same opponents. The strong team surrounding him might be contributing to the success of Michigan's offense and potentially masking individual performance nuances.
September 29th, 2023 at 1:07 PM ^
If I remember correctly, we could have put that game away early but pre-settled for a bunch of FGs instead.
September 29th, 2023 at 1:43 PM ^
Believe this game solidified for me Seth's observation about Scott Frost, that he had awesome play designs and did a lot of fun things (the kind of stuff that makes for great copy about a coach) but was terrible at the little stuff that you need to do to make a team successful e.g., getting beat by the same TE delay about six different times.
September 29th, 2023 at 1:48 PM ^
All I remember is a huge play for a TD whwn Nebraska had an illegal formation where the guy who caught the pass was ineligible
September 29th, 2023 at 2:33 PM ^
This was the game that made me think that the program had finally started to turn the corner and could complete for a BIG championship.
As I recall, a lot of fans were pissed that we barely pulled it off, but I was thinking the opposite. It was huge to go on the road and win a night game in the 4th quarter at Nebraska after almost giving it away.
I was also watching a supposed power house OSU team look "not tough" in their games. I remember after this game having the conviction to actually say out loud, " I think we have a chance in The Game this year."
At the time, people told me I was full of shit and that this was just "Nebraska"
To be honest, I tend to respect that program more than most of you. I think we'll be in for another dog fight tomorrow. Any time we play Iowa, Wisconsin, Nebraska or MSU I know it's going to a be a battle, especially if it's a road game.
