Realistic Perspective from Baumgardner: M has progressed, but not enough yet
I think Nick is pretty fair and also is one of the only MSM types who even tries to break down plays and look at data. Here are a couple of representative quotes:
"Jim Harbaugh's program is better today than a year ago. It's better today than when he walked into the Junge Center on Dec. 30, 2014, with an unprecedented amount of desperation-induced euphoria and fanfare."
"Michigan froze in the spotlight Saturday at Ohio State. There's no other way to spin it. There were issues and mishaps that simply hadn't happened over the course of the previous 10 games. The big stage will do that if you're not prepared for it and, for a variety of reasons, Michigan wasn't."
November 26th, 2018 at 11:04 AM ^
Nothing against Nick (he's fine) but this is the hottest take I've seen in the last two days.
November 27th, 2018 at 9:45 AM ^
Beloved wojo essentially said the same thing
November 26th, 2018 at 10:58 AM ^
We're not Alabama, Clemson or OSU or Oklahoma yet, no...
More like on the level of...Washington or LSU...which is improvement...but we can do better
November 26th, 2018 at 11:18 AM ^
This is exactly right.
Tier One: Bama, OSU, Oklahoma, Clemson
Tier 2: LSU, Michigan, Washington, Georgia (could argue tier 1), Notre Dame
*the teams within each tier are in no specific order
November 26th, 2018 at 11:31 AM ^
If Georgia beats Alabama head up, I would put them in Tier 1, easily...
November 26th, 2018 at 12:16 PM ^
I think that's probably one of the more concise ways to put this - we are on the rung below the likes of Alabama, Clemson, OSU, Oklahoma....arguably one or two others. There's a lot of reasons why that is, and we need to keep reaching for that rung until we get there. We're a lot closer than we were a few years ago, but we are definitely not there yet.
November 26th, 2018 at 12:45 PM ^
Exactly, don't people realize we were literally a 5 win team when Harbaugh took over? We had a chance to prove we were tier 1 Saturday, and unfortunately we failed. LSU had the same chance this year, and they got shut out at home by Bama. Washington made playoffs once and got blown out. Oklahoma will not be there unless they can field something above a MAC level defense. Georgia might be only team potentially knocking on the door.
Keep recruiting well, and we will be knocking on door each year, and hopefully break through. But for 7 years under RR and Hoke there was literally zero chance of competing for B10 title consistently.
Plenty blue-blood(ish) programs like USC, Texas, Miami, Va Tech, are further from being there than we are.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:01 AM ^
I know many of you follow @JDue51 as I do on Twitter (ex player and regular poster here on the board). He said it perfectly this morning:
"We brought a knife to a gunfight on Saturday. And we're going to spend the next year sharpening that knife".
That's the problem in a nutshell IMO. If we were playing this game in 1995 we'd kick their ass but sadly we're not and we're either going to evolve or keep getting our brains smashed in by teams that have.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:17 AM ^
That's a very succinct summary. Doing what we did in that game, only slightly better isn't going to change the outcome in any meaningful way.
If we had equal talent to OSU, all coached up for a couple years, we could probably do what we did in that game and win. However, in that case, we'd basically be Alabama with a less dynamic offesnse.
At some point, you need to beat teams that present schematic or talent-level problems. Harbaugh has done this precisely zero times at Michigan. He's a good coach, but that's a disappointing realization.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:34 AM ^
To me, that's the biggest mystery of Harbaugh: at Stanford he beat teams that were better than them (e.g. USC with basically a worse than O'Korn QB) and early at SF he did the same. But here, he hasn't been able to
November 26th, 2018 at 11:24 AM ^
Eh, I think it's a bit shortsighted based solely on one game. In 2016 & 2017, we had the better gameplan. Obviously the coaching staff completely botched this past weekend and when things started downhill after halftime, we just abandoned the vehicle and rolled off the cliff. But it's not like we've been outclassed every time we've played them.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:39 AM ^
2 out of 4 we've been outclassed.
Gotta figure out how to take advantage of the times where we do have a chance (2016 & 2017). UM is never going to out-recruit Urban at OSU. However they do have to stay within striking distance which I think they have. Coaching will have to carry the rest of the way because I don't think we'll ever just "out athlete" OSU.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:46 AM ^
Yes, and that first year there was really no reason to expect otherwise. That was OSU's best team (in terms of talent and potential) under Meyer. It was our first year under JH with a senior class that hadn't won more than 8 games in a season before. The fact that that team almost beat a very good MSU team and got to 10 wins is pretty impressive IMO.
This year, absolutely no excuse. That was an embarrassing display from everyone involved. Can't sugar coat it, can't rationalize it. Just a pitiful performance we should be ashamed of.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:33 AM ^
Completely agree with this sentiment. I’ll ask the board to weigh in. Do we think that Harbaugh will change the offense enough to get to Tier 1 status? I don’t think the defense will be the problem going forward. The crossing routes will get figured out. My worry that Michigan will remain a Tier 2 team stems from my lack of faith in JH’s willingness to update the O.
November 26th, 2018 at 12:15 PM ^
No. It would require a level of introspection and humility we haven’t seen from Harbaugh basically ever.
Hiring Don Brown to take over the defense is one thing. Giving up on his offense and his way — Bo’s way — of playing football is completely different and I don’t think he has it in him.
November 26th, 2018 at 12:25 PM ^
I do, yes. Harbaugh wants to win. He's clearly added spread concepts to his playbook, and they were not afraid to tailor the offense to Shea's zone read and shotgun formation strengths. I think he called conservative offensive gameplans this year in part because Shea was new and because Higdon and the OL were, all things considered, pretty good in the run game. And most importantly, because the defense was absolutely dominating opponents. It worked spectacularly this year in most games except for...well, the obvious one.
I think the offense will open up considerably next year, if Shea returns.
And Harbaugh has shown a willingness to make changes ...I mean, we have Warriner now. That was a significant upgrade, and results from Saturday aside, that move has helped propel this team from borderline 8 to 9 win team to a solid 10-win team. And the OL went from a liability to an asset. I have no idea why they were so bad Saturday, obviously. But it doesn't erase all the clear progress made on OL this year.
Having said all that, I'd like Jim to make a change at his "OC" position. Pep just isn't very exciting or creative. We need somebody else there, a non-NFL coach.
November 26th, 2018 at 12:17 PM ^
That's indeed a succinct summary. However, if we're using the gun/knife analogy, wouldn't it be a better approach to spend the year stockpiling a bunch of guns and figuring out how to use them instead of sticking with trying to fine tune the knife?
November 26th, 2018 at 12:55 PM ^
Uhh, whoooosh
November 26th, 2018 at 2:16 PM ^
"the sharpening the knife" comment was a criticism of our coaches fine tuning their offense (sharpening the knife) instead of scrapping it for a new offense that is modern (leaving the knife, bringing a gun).
November 26th, 2018 at 2:45 PM ^
or perhaps to the fact that Michigan's roster is a knife and OSU's is a gun
November 26th, 2018 at 3:36 PM ^
I guess I missed the nuance of the original post. I'm not familiar with the poster who made the reference on twitter but was he really saying, "we came vastly unprepared for this game and I expect the coaches to spend the next year continuing to prepare in a completely useless fashion"? If so, yikes, I gotta get more pessimistic it would seem.
November 26th, 2018 at 12:53 PM ^
True, but in 1995 we would have come into this game with 3 losses.
*meant as a reply to MGrowOld
November 26th, 2018 at 2:20 PM ^
Undoubtedly, but OSU isn’t going to spend the next year waiting for us to show up with a sharper knife. Showing up would be a good start after Saturday.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:02 AM ^
And will never be good enough for the spotlight unless they stop being worried about making mistakes and just play the game.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:03 AM ^
I think this is fair point. Michigan was headed for a catastrophic 2015 and beyond and Harbaugh has made us a top 10ish program - and hopefully a top 5 program in the next two years.
OSU was clearly the better team on Saturday - the lopsided outcome of the game was a scenario where Urban rolled a 6 and Jim rolled a 1 but that doesn't change the fact that OSU was ready to coach and play that game and we weren't.
If that punt doesn't get blocked and/or Gentry doesn't drop the long 3rd down, maybe the final score ends up 48-30 or something like that but we weren't going to win the game.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:03 AM ^
Really hard to see Saturday as anything other than a huge blow to the program and a step back or resetting of expectations. The optimistic takes ring hollow.
Don Brown's defense was utterly exposed by the passing spread and I think the worst part was it looked like we had no idea it was coming. After great performances in 2016 and 2017, the staff seemed lost this year. Possibly even arrogant, like our normal game plan was just going to pave OSU. I don't know what we were thinking
November 26th, 2018 at 2:12 PM ^
It wasn't even our normal game plan - we normally play very aggressively and blitz. I barely saw any of that.
I mean, we were getting killed in coverage - why not at least blitz 2 and 3 guys to give yourself a chance? Normally you don't want to give up big plays but it was happening anyway.
And how was our top 3 DLine getting no pressure against what was a $hitty OLine all season. The whole thing is just baffling - it's like the whole season was just a big setup for Michigan to get kicked in the balls for Saturday.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:05 AM ^
OSU came ready to play, and handed Don Brown his ass. I don't care who we're playing, giving up a record breaking number of points is not acceptable.
Yes, the offense needs work. But Jesus Christ, it shouldn't have to score 63 points.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:06 AM ^
My take on the game is this:
Harbaugh estimated that we could beat their defense straight up, with the plays that have worked all year, without the uber creative gameplan we’ve seen the last two years. That was a miscalculation. Not a massive one, but I don’t think it was the right move either. People got mad about his “we ran our best plays” comment, but what he’s saying is not that what we saw was the most creative stuff he could come up with, but that we ran the plays that worked in games 1-11. That’s fine if you have better athletes and talent, but we found out that we don’t quite yet. The pass pro was exploited at times as well, but Warinner has been a miracle worker this year and one game doesn’t change that.
This game is on the defense though. The few weak spots on our defense were brutally exploited by OSU’s talent on offense. Watson and Kinnel’s limited athleticism, and average DTs, made this a really easy outing for OSU. 39 points has been plenty to win 36/38 games in Don Brown’s time in Ann Arbor. A performance that would normally be considered average from this unit wins us the game. Instead, we got absolutely pantsed, then we lost two of our best players, and it snowballed.
Michigan fans love blaming the offense, but I thought the offense was mostly sufficient this week, and has obviously improved a metric shit ton this year. I’m not concerned with the offense. I’m also not concerned with Don Brown, obviously. His track record is so amazing that he won’t be judged by exceptions to the rule. Saturday just proved that there’s still a talent gap between us and Ohio State, and that our base game plan is not enough to overcome that gap, especially on the road. This game is on the players on defense to me. No sacks, no turnovers, crazy yards per play. The guys on the field on defense were not up to the task and got beat by the guys across the ball from them. That’s really 80-90% of what happened Saturday.
An 11-2 Rose Bowl winner year is still great, even if we missed some goals. Yesterday’s game highlights the importance of closing this class with Harrison and Karlaftis, signing the Dax Hills and the Charbonnets. There’s still talent to be made up before we can beat OSU’s base plays with ours.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:19 AM ^
Well said and perhaps surprising to some here I'm not all "doom and gloom" on the season. Win our bowl game and go 11-2 which would make it only the sixth time I've seen that in 50+ years of watching M football. That's a great record even if the two losses (and especially the one on Saturday) take a bit of the luster off it.
My take on the game is very similar to yours. Our defense, our entire defense, is predicated on putting pressure on the QB. Playing a one high safety with press man coverage is absolutely doomed if the QB has time to survey the field and find the open receiver cause sooner or later somebody is going to get open. And if anybody so much as touched Haskins on Saturday I didnt see it.
Therein lies the problem. Their OL man-handled us up front and without a pass rush Don Brown's defense is very, very beatable. And they did. Repeatidly. Like a rented mule.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:25 AM ^
I agree, man. As Brian says, DL is a make plays position, and that is even more true in pass rush than in playing the run. We got no pressure Saturday, especially not rushing 4 and 5, and if you can’t do that against that passing offense AND they have one or two receivers that are more athletic than the guy covering them, you’re going to have a hellish time.
November 26th, 2018 at 12:15 PM ^
I think that the “Revenge Tour” mentality may have played against us. John Wooden always promoted against playing with emotion, as being too up, or down, can bring inconsistencies into your game, I think the team folded emotionally when things didn’t go as planned, and contributed to the margin of victory. In particular, I thought that OSU last drive of the first half, after the Evans touchdown, was particularly deflating. They had 45 seconds on the clock, and they walked down the field like they were playing against a high school squad. Man to man works great, until you are required to cover superior athletes. It was evident then that we had no answer for their offense.
Now, for a bit of perspective.... In Winston Churchill’s younger days, a matronly type came up to him and said, “ Winston, you are disgustingly drunk”. Churchill’s reply was classic: “Madame, you are right. However, in the morning, I shall be sober. You, on the other hand, will still be ugly.”
November 26th, 2018 at 12:27 PM ^
With the lack of pressure on Haskins it didn't matter what coverage we ran, he had all day to pick us apart and 5 seconds is long enough against any coverage. I honestly have no explanation for why we couldn't get any pressure on Haskins. I would love to have a UFR explaining what happened but don't blame Brian at all for not wanting to rewatch that shit show.
OSU is a great passing team - with no pressure on the QB, they would pick apart any team (including Bama and Clemson). I don't think any of us expected Haskins to be clean all damn game back there.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:45 AM ^
I agree with both the good Dr and MGrowOld - an imposing DL is the catalyst for creating havoc and our DL was average ever since Rashan went down with his shoulder. That being said, it was well known that OSU's offense throughout the year was based on quick crossing routes and YAC. We didn't have a coverage solution for that.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:54 AM ^
Between Solomon, Rashan, and finally Chase’s health issues, we haven’t been able to put our best DL on the field all year. That doesn’t explain everything that happened Saturday, but it’s clear that we didn’t have all our bullets.
November 26th, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^
I agree with everything you said. I just don't understand why this happened to us other than it's 'The Game'. That OSU team struggled with a bunch of Big Ten teams we did or would have paved. It seems like cruel fate that the first time OSU put it together in weeks would be in this game. Cruel, cruel, cruel
November 26th, 2018 at 12:39 PM ^
Couldn't agree more. It shouldn't be a surprise that OSU was able to get pressure. The OL improved dramatically, but was going to have trouble with the talent OSU has. The offense could have been better (drops, Patterson wasn't completely sharp, etc.) But, it wasn't a total disaster. Had we been able to grab an early lead, the dynamic would have been different.
The shock was the cratering of the defense. OSU had the talent in the right spots to take advantage of the weakness. Losing Bush's speed was another nail in the coffin.
The question is what could Brown have done differently to slow them down? We needed pressure on Haskins to take him out of his rhythm. The whole game it seemed like OSU was plugged into Brown's headset. To me, that was stunning.
November 26th, 2018 at 5:16 PM ^
Agree with all of this. Defense was it.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:12 AM ^
The sad reality is that to most Michigan fans the term 'Big' games refers to MSU and OSU...those are the games that matter most.... in fact, i believe a lot of fans are approaching the point they'd accept a sub .500 year if it meant beating OSU... its that bad
While Harbaugh has reset the former, he hasn't gotten the monkey off his back in the latter.
Harbaugh is a very good coach, but until he beats OSU he'll never be elite, at least at Michigan, because OSU will be the roadblock on the path to a B1G championship, barring some reversal of fortune.
Ball control is fine and dandy when your D holds up their end of the bargain... but if it doesn't and you get into a boat race with another team, i don't know if Harbaugh's offense has another gear...
November 26th, 2018 at 11:20 AM ^
This loss is directly on the coaches. Purdue pantsed OSU. Nebraska, Minnesota, and Maryland all played them tough and had plenty of chances to beat them.
Michigan was run off the field and essentially embarrassed and this has happened for 20 years now.
Harbaugh makes too much money and Brown gets too much respect for what they produced on Saturday, and essentially what they have produced in every "big" game in going back 3-4 years now.
9-3/10-2 is fun and great because it is a ton of fun watch winning football games. But Harbaugh will never beat OSU while Meyer is there. He will never beat a team with similar or better talent than he has.
Harbaugh simply can't or won't adapt we now have 4 years of evidence to prove that. The guy is just a guy. He isn't Saban and he isn't Meyer. He is a better Kirk Ferentz. He is a better Pat Fitzgerald.
I will take 9-3/10-2 over 3-9/5-7 every single day. But we just need to be okay with never winning the B1G because we can't. The coaches aren't good enough.
Harbaugh is a good coach. Brown is a good coach. They simply aren't great and just like pretty much everyone, they have their flaws. It's simply that their flaws are the ones that Meyer has the perfect strengths suited to exploit.
Side note: I am bracing for/expecting a handful of kids to transfer out this off-season. This loss is going to leave a bad taste in a lot of people's mouths and I see a few kids being sick and tired of being misused and playing in this ancient/boring offense. I see 1-2 WRs leaving at least.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:46 AM ^
Your comment is a joke... We should have beat them in 2016, but we had an injured qb throwing picks out of our end zone and fumbling the snap on the one yard line...
Last year if Patterson was our qb we easily win that game as well..
Okorn shit the bed and everyone knew it last year..
November 26th, 2018 at 12:14 PM ^
If my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle. I get that the games you are referencing were more competitive than Saturday's, but it doesn't take away the simple fact that we lost those too.
Somehow, not matter the scenario, Meyer finds ways to beat Harbaugh and Michigan every single time. Now that's not blind luck - that's simply being the better coach, recruiter, motivator, etc.
We are to OSU what Indiana is to us. That annoying team that rises up sometimes and puts scares in, but never closes the deal and every few years, we get our doors blown off.
I get you don't like my comment, but the results are what they are and Harbaugh is what he is.
November 27th, 2018 at 10:37 AM ^
We lost 7 straight years to them. But as long as you are here explaining that "we should of" this or "if" that I feel oh so much better now...
Quit treating these losses as moral victories and blaming them on excuses.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:57 AM ^
Agreed. Harbaugh is a great at organization and team building
Atrocious game tactician. It's either win his way or go down in a ball of flames no matter what game situation dictates. See last year vs Michigan State, monsoon coming, we kick field goals and run the ball and get exposed. All according to Harbaughs plan.
Hoke was much better at getting Michigan to play one game than Harbaugh.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:57 AM ^
Agreed. Harbaugh is a great at organization and team building
Atrocious game tactician. It's either win his way or go down in a ball of flames no matter what game situation dictates. See last year vs Michigan State, monsoon coming, we kick field goals and run the ball and get exposed. All according to Harbaughs plan.
Hoke was much better at getting Michigan to play one game than Harbaugh.
Dabo, Riley, Saban, Urban, Jimbo ect wouldve saw that our D wasnt yo to snuff. That we were gonna have to score points and attack Ohio States terrible secondary.
Not Harbaugh, still running up the gut with no tempo down 3 scores in the 3rd
November 26th, 2018 at 12:05 PM ^
Bullshit. He made the mistake of thinking OSU was weak enough this year to get beat with the same plays we used to beat everyone else. His game plans in 2016 and 2017 were masterful.
November 26th, 2018 at 12:09 PM ^
FFS, shut up
November 26th, 2018 at 12:15 PM ^
Cool - productive comment
November 26th, 2018 at 11:38 AM ^
Michigan is in the midst of it's best stretch of football since 1997-2000, but it's NOT GOOD ENOUGH because Alabama, OSU, Oklahoma, and Clemson exist.
But when is the last time Michigan was a legit, consistent National Title contender who backed their play up on the field? The Early 70s? Shit, we could still become Alabama/OSU/Oklahoma/Clemson but it is going to take time. Until then, three 10 win seasons in 4 years is a fun way to wait.
That sucked last weekend. But it's not the end of the year, Harbaugh's tenure, or Michigan's football program. It's a downer, but this season is just another building block in the foundation of a better program. Still stuck at 10-2 +/-2, which is a massive improvement from where we were and a reversion to Michigan's norm under Bo, Mo, and Lloyd. We just can't split B1G titles anymore, and OSU is in that group mentioned above.
November 26th, 2018 at 12:34 PM ^
Very good points. Truth is, assuming our bowl game goes well, this season will be, historically, one of the best in program history. It's possible that OSU will go to the playoffs, making our only losses to top 4 teams. No collapses to bad teams, which was a staple of Bo, Mo, and Lloyd. The loss to OSU stings, but that team could have beaten Alabama last Saturday.