Quick look at Washington as Playoff Matchup
Good for Washington winning a 2nd time over Oregon. Oregon with the #1 SP+ offense scored 31 points agains Washington's 42nd ranked defense. Michigan scored 30 points against the #3 defense. Washington's offense is 5th which sounds scary but IMHO they are less challenging than OSU's at least on a talent basis.
Washington is 11th in SP+ while Michigan is 1st. SP+ indicates that Michigan should win this game by 14.1 points. Yes I know, TCU vibes all over again. U of M coaches aren't perfect but they are smart and won't repeat the TCU mistakes.
Predicted CFB Playoff matchups:
Georgia vs Florida State
Michigan vs Washington
Georgia vs Michigan
If this happens it will be the first CFP with every team without being undefeated!
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:27 AM ^
Let's see if FSU can pull it out with a potentially third string QB as their starter
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:54 AM ^
i heard the assistant pop corn vendor supervisor is QB for FSU today. wishing him well.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:07 AM ^
I know towel boys usually come in as a WR, but maybe, this one time...
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:36 AM ^
Assistant to the popcorn vendor supervisor
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:54 AM ^
Sources say that "Rico" will be stepping in at QB for FSU today. Rumblings from inside the program said that "if coach would've put him in during the 4th quarter they would've been champs last season".
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:09 AM ^
OMG, that guy terrifies me. He can throw the football over a mountain.
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:14 AM ^
I'd like to see his tape
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:23 AM ^
boomer, i got it right here, fresh off of HUDL
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:48 AM ^
Uncle Rico's van is Hudl orange. Coincidence? Not at all. Uncle Rico founded Hudl to make sure every kid who can throw a football clear over them mountains gets a shot.
December 2nd, 2023 at 12:06 PM ^
truth. if HUDL had been around when he was a recruit, he'd have been the first 6* and destined for the super bowl.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:50 AM ^
I don’t see how FSU’s QB could be out when he was checked and cleared to go back into their game last week. I think he plays.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:55 AM ^
1. Concussion symptoms can manifest more obviously later on. He could've looked okay at the time and they have gotten worse.
2. Who knows if the in game check was completely above board.
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:55 AM ^
My most recent concussion happened on a Friday. I couldn’t believe I was OK, then felt better on Saturday and business as usual.
From Sunday until Wednesday, I was a zombie.
December 2nd, 2023 at 10:22 AM ^
I remember thinking "Awesome! They are down to their 3rd stringer?? We are going to destroy this guy!"
😕
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:29 AM ^
If we let the receivers get behind our defense Penix is going to carve us up. When he launches that ball he does so with a kind of confidence where you just know it’s going to be a completion. Not sure that we have the pass rush to make life difficult for him. Should be a good matchup though. I can’t wait.
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:32 AM ^
The one pick Penix threw yesterday when their IOL got beat. That gave me hope that we can do that to them. Our pass rush has been good not great. We definitely have improved. I was surprised how well UM did against OSU with just 4 or 5 at the line. They protected against passing game. They contained OSU rushing game even with that one drive where we let them run. I think our DBs will do a better job than what Oregon did.
December 2nd, 2023 at 10:46 AM ^
Michigan's defense is good, no doubt, but Washington is deeeeeeeep at WR. Maybe deeper than OSU. And they're tall. Odunze, while not as great as Harrison, is also a projected first round pick. These guys are going to be tough to cover and the cornerback position is the single greatest vulnerability on the entire Michigan roster. The pass rush will need to be stellar to win the game.
December 2nd, 2023 at 10:53 AM ^
Everybody needs to remember last year; TCU wasn't supposed to do that to us. I think the defense is better than last year's, but the whole team needs to have the 'any given Sunday' mindset. I think they will, most of these guys were on last year's squad. JJ will come of age, in my opinion, in these next THREE games.
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:01 AM ^
Washington's center is 275 lb! Imagine him vs Kenneth Grant
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:12 AM ^
We've basically prepared all year to face a pass-first team with a stationary QB. I think facing UW is like facing Stroudish OSU with a better coach but less overall talent. Coaching goes a long way though. And beating Oregon twice is a pretty hefty accomplishment, not to mention not dropping any other games This could look something like the 1993 Rose Bowl.
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:48 AM ^
Watching that game, I thought our D-line would make a Michigan/Washington game different than last night. Our pass rush would be better than Oregon's, but more importantly than that, we wouldn't let Washington run for six yards whenever they wanted to. Even when we were sitting back in coverage.
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:13 AM ^
Watching TCU lose to KSU and UGA made me realize that we were going kill TCU and also that we should have killed TCU.
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:49 AM ^
Anymore,"IFS" ? Some things are just obvious. If they can't stop our run game it won't matter. If today was Friday, we wouldn't be playing until tomorrow.
GO BLUE
CHAMPIONSHIPS TOO
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:10 AM ^
Michigan has been practicing against Washington's offense all year long. Even against OSU they were practicing for Washington's offense. And Washington is discount OSU. Yeah, Rome Odunze is really freaking good - maybe MHJ good. But so is Will Johnson.
We be a'ight...
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:46 AM ^
Odunze is very good, but no wr is in Harrison's league. He's one of the best in cfb history imo (but 0-3 vs Michigan!)
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:15 AM ^
Yeah, we can find reasons to scare ourselves. But this game sets up as winnable.
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:00 AM ^
It'll look more like our '21 defense vs OSU imo. We used a bunch of double teams this year and I don't know if that's the best approach against a more egalitarian passing attack.
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:16 AM ^
It is, because mixing up zones, keeping things in front of us, and letting our pretty diverse and capable pass-rush get after Penix, while making them drive the field is, IMO playing to UW's weakness. Oregon was giving up huge chunks on almost every drive.
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:19 AM ^
This 100% not sure Michigan is built to beat a Georgia or Alabama but they have prepared for Washington all year in OSU.
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:29 AM ^
FSU running game was pretty good against FL. They will probably can run in this game as well as long the third string QB can complete a few passes here and there.
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:40 AM ^
Floridas run defense is atrocious. For perspective, they’re one spot better than Indiana and 10 spots worse than MSU in rushing yards allowed on the year
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:03 AM ^
LOL. Really that bad? Wow. Take back what I said.
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:33 AM ^
Beat Iowa
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:41 AM ^
This. I don't do coronations. TCB.
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:50 AM ^
I agree, but I also think about matchups relative to Michigan all year because it makes other games more fun. Not sure how the "beat the next team" crowd experiences non-michigan games without thinking about who Michigan would like to win. Do you manage to watch them totally neutrally?
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:14 AM ^
Well, I root for Michigan win along with OSU, MSU and ND loss every week.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:18 AM ^
Personally I watch the vast majority of non-Michigan games rooting for the underdog. If I really don't care or there isn't an obvious underdog or team that I dislike then I root for a fun and well-played game for entertainment's sake.
Last night's Pac 12 championship was a good example. Both teams are excellent and would (have) posed a challenge if we played them in the CFP. And while Oregon was highly favored by Vegas and most so-called experts, Washington defied the odds and beat them a second time. It was no fluke; Oregon didn't make egregious mistakes (or coaching errors)--UW just beat them.
I am one of the Beat Our Next Opponent crowd. Next game, next series, next first down, take nothing for granted after 50 years of frustration on the national stage--except for '97 of course.
But if we dare look ahead to a potential matchup w/UW in the Rose Bowl, what stood out to me was their DE #8 Bralen Trice--he looks like a dude to me. I think we'd figure out how to confuse Penix with different coverages and somehow cover their receivers enough of the time to grind out a win. But...I say all of that in parentheses because I won't assume a victory over Iowa until we actually beat them. Go Blue!
December 2nd, 2023 at 10:10 AM ^
Well, Nix threw one egregious Zach Wilson-ish pick in the third quarter after Penix threw an almost equally bad pick on the prior series. That pick from Nix seemed to quash momentum that Oregon had been building... without that one, maybe Oregon wins?
But whatever, I agree with your premise. Washington played with the spirit they had back in September when they were rolling teams. They beat Oregon straight-up. Their drives to end the game, when they extended the lead to ten points late, and then when they iced the game with a couple first downs, were super gutsy. Less impressive was giving up the long TD to Oregon when competent prevent D just wins the game, but still.
The Huskies look like a very tough out. Lots of moxie. Seems like a team will have to stomp them, or they will hang around and find a way to win.
December 2nd, 2023 at 10:41 AM ^
I never understood why we as fans should be admonished for looking ahead at potential matchups when we don't play the games. Players shouldn't do that, be we as fans have that luxury.
So carry on!
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:44 AM ^
But we as fans do choose to wear the lucky shirts and take the critically timed sip of beer.
December 2nd, 2023 at 11:25 AM ^
Agreed, bkblue94. A consequence of my "relative to Michigan" lens is that my interest in non-Michigan games falls off a cliff when Michigan isn't nationally competitive, like in basketball this year.
And especially in basketball, which does't have the rarity of games that football does.
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:35 AM ^
Penix is legit. Those WRs may be better top to bottom than OSUs. And DeBoer is a fantastic coach. Our secondary is really going to be tested.
December 2nd, 2023 at 8:49 AM ^
Zero chance Washington's receivers are better than Ohio State's. I'm not saying they aren't good, but Ohio State has possibly the top WR prospect of all time, along with PFF's #5 WR draft prospect, Egbuka (#23 overall). They also have Fleming going in the 6th.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:04 AM ^
Rome Odunze is projected as a mid-first rounder, Polk is projected to the second round, and MacMillan is projected to the fourth round, plus Giles Jackson.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:32 AM ^
Top 3 pick, Top 25 pick, & 6th Rd > 1st Rd, 2nd Rd, 4th Rd in my opinion, especially with OSU's track record ... Also, Marvin Harrison Jr is probably the best player in the country.
December 2nd, 2023 at 1:06 PM ^
Penix does not set passing down on fire like McCord does, so I would give a slight edge to UW's passing offense this season.
On the other hand, Michigan's d line is a cheat code for almost any offense, and thus I believe Georgia is the only team that should be competitive with Michigan.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:07 AM ^
Agree with this generally but it's not really apples to apples, IMO, because Washington has a QB who can put the ball on the numbers down in and down out. OSU doesn't.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:25 AM ^
OSU did, until they played Michigan.
Don't get me wrong, Penix is clearly good, but ...
- vs WSU: 18/33, 204 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT
- vs ASU: 27/42, 275 yards, 0 TD, 2 INTs
- vs OSU: 13/28, 162 yards, 2 TDs
He's had some very questionable performances against 'meh' teams where his completion percentage and YPA weren't good, and he turned the ball over. McCord had arguably better stats against Penn State and Michigan than Penix had against those 'meh' teams listed above.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:45 AM ^
True though Penix has shown over his IU and UW career that he can perform against good defenses. He can and has put a team on his back. McCord? Maybe he'll get there one day, but I don't see the same kind of talent.
December 2nd, 2023 at 10:01 AM ^
But Penix has also hurt his team when he didn't need to force the issue. They had close calls against bad teams, because of him.