Prediction Summary: MGoBlog vs. 11w
So the other day I asked for your game predictions in a thread cleverly entitled ... "SIAP: UM-OSU predictions thread". I also (I must admit) saw a similar thread over at 11w, called "OK SO WHAT ARE EVERYONE'S SCORES PREDICTIONS FOR THIS SATURDAY?". My job was then clear: to summarize what each fan base is thinking will happen during The Game.
Here is graph that summarizes all the predictions:
I think the graph is pretty easy to understand, but just in case:
- The top graph shows what MGoBloggers think (56 total predictions); the bottom OSU (83 predictions)
- The x-axis shows the predicted margin of victory; left means a UM prediction win (in blue), right an OSU win (red, with gray background for clarity)
- Predicted margins are bucketed into size=5 buckets; thus, if you pick UM to win by 7, it will show up in the bucket marked 10 (which captures wins by less than 10 but greater than 5)
- The y-axis shows how many fans picked a particular margin; because more OSU fans made predictions on the 11w thread, the axes were scaled proportionally
The graph shows the fans state of mind pretty well, I would think. Specifically, ALL 83 (100 %) fans of OSU at 11w predict an OSU win, with an average win margin of just over three touchdowns, and the most common win margins being between 15 and 19 points, inclusive.
Michigan fans (MGoBloggers) are more split, with 32 (57%) predicting a UM win, and 24 (43%) a loss. The average margin of victory is just under 2 points, and the most common prediction is a close (less than 5 point) UM win.
I, for one, am enjoying their overconfidence. It will make the pending UM win that much more painful...
November 28th, 2019 at 11:26 PM ^
Good work, now please go through the last 15 years of data and report back so we have some context
November 28th, 2019 at 11:28 PM ^
Nah, let’s look at the last 120 years instead. A larger sample size takes out outliers like the last two decades. Go blue!
November 29th, 2019 at 6:22 AM ^
Pete! Preach it!
November 29th, 2019 at 2:37 PM ^
My great-great grandfather Roscoe Clyde Gimmick correctly predicted that 86-0 score in 1902 when he wrote in to the Olde M-Go! Daily Herald.
November 28th, 2019 at 11:32 PM ^
My prediction:
November 28th, 2019 at 11:37 PM ^
Like last year in reverse
November 28th, 2019 at 11:38 PM ^
The MGoBlogger data reveals the BPONE runs strong.
November 28th, 2019 at 11:58 PM ^
And now we know there’s an opposite phenomenon residing in the universe.
November 29th, 2019 at 6:19 AM ^
Don't blame me, I just got here
November 29th, 2019 at 9:46 AM ^
Symmetry.
Physics, bitches!
November 29th, 2019 at 9:06 AM ^
To be fair, even if someone woke up from a coma this week and had no idea of the last 15 years of Michigan football it's not unreasonable to predict a loss against the #1 or 2 team in the country. They are close to a double digit road favorite for a reason.
November 28th, 2019 at 11:51 PM ^
I can see there is probably a similar culture there as here: to stay you have to be in line with what is an established median opinion. There, it's they think Ohio St will win, most saying by 3 TDs. Here you can say Michigan will win close or lose close.
November 29th, 2019 at 8:59 AM ^
I think that culture is everywhere. Mostly because most things are not that controversial and/or can be proven. Every once in awhile the person with the radical opinion is Galileo or Copernicus, but most often they are Beavis and Butthead.
Sports are great because you can talk unsubstantiated trash before the game, but it is proven on the field/court. Of course you can then talk about the refs or how the other team cheats.
November 30th, 2019 at 1:47 AM ^
mmm, nah. There's some kind of mob mentality going on at this place.
November 29th, 2019 at 12:12 AM ^
I think the person who picked a 65-70 point win for OSU needs time to re-evaluate their life
November 29th, 2019 at 12:24 AM ^
That person is probably living in Ohio so...tall order.
November 29th, 2019 at 12:22 AM ^
Funny thing --- the current line is OSU -9.5. Which is darn near exactly halfway between the 2 predictions.
Fans tend to favor their own team when making predictions. In this case, giving their favorite team about 11.5 points.
November 29th, 2019 at 12:30 AM ^
I predict a similar game to the Devin Gardner broken foot pass intercepted in the end zone to lose by one game, except we somehow end up winning by 10. Or one. Does it really matter as long as we win?
November 29th, 2019 at 12:44 AM ^
No, it ain’t matter.
November 29th, 2019 at 1:09 AM ^
I think it will be like the 2017 home game but we will have a much better QB.
November 29th, 2019 at 2:14 AM ^
Considering the shape of the OSU Wins graphs, I assume many, many of the OSU blowout picks on mgoblog are from Ohio State trolls or buckeyjonross, etc.
November 29th, 2019 at 10:53 AM ^
I will intervene to defend buckeyejonross, who I believe is reasonable and due to dint of geography ended up at OSU. He has modesty and etiquitte. An error of judgement he ended up there.
OK neg away
November 29th, 2019 at 1:31 PM ^
I also picked a OSU blow out because this is a horrific matchup for Michigan on both sides of the ball. I also hate OSU.
November 29th, 2019 at 7:07 AM ^
Actually both fan bases have reason to feel that way. OSU should feel like will win and M fans should feel otherwise based on ranking and season. But, there is a reason you play the game, because in some games records won't reflect performance as in The Game... Go Blue!
November 29th, 2019 at 8:15 AM ^
I am disappointed that my 100-0 victory prediction was not represented. Must keep scoring, no lead is safe.
November 29th, 2019 at 8:34 AM ^
I did like its bravado. However, it fell off the graph due to sheer audacity.
November 29th, 2019 at 8:23 AM ^
I assume those cooler poopers would have guessed higher but they ran out of appendages to count on.
November 29th, 2019 at 8:26 AM ^
This is brilliant. Well done.
November 29th, 2019 at 9:41 AM ^
It was nice of you to explain things for the Buckeye lurkers here. We know they would have trouble reading these graphs.
November 29th, 2019 at 10:47 AM ^
They teach graph reading in Phd level courses. Most buckeyes stop at addition 101....makes them feel superior to MSU grads.
November 29th, 2019 at 9:41 AM ^
You got this wrong .
I also went to the 11 warrior site the other day .
When many of them predicted a score they said "good guys " thus meaning Michigan
November 29th, 2019 at 10:00 AM ^
ha this is funny - I also thought it odd when they talked about "The Dark Side" and meant UM!
November 29th, 2019 at 10:42 AM ^
Interesting the median OSU victory # by UM fans is the same as OSU fans
November 29th, 2019 at 10:43 AM ^
In honor of The Game, I am reading this in Columbus while defecating, but with an actual toilet instead of a cooler, because us Michigan fans in Ohio always have to be different.
November 29th, 2019 at 12:55 PM ^
If you can weed through all the X in place of M and the use of the word scum that is just dumb as fuck.
November 29th, 2019 at 2:06 PM ^
I missed this thread, but here's my very unscientific prediction for this game.
I was thinking we're back where we were in the later Carr years. Then I thought, there are even season-by-season parallels. Let me explain:
2015 = 2007. Opened the season with a loss (that will remain nameless in 2007's case), the team seemed to find its footing at mid-season. Then ended it by losing at home to OSU in a game that wasn't close, before beating Florida in the Citrus Bowl.
2016 = 2006. The team was a legitimate title contender through the first 11 games before losing in that dump in Columbus.
2017 = 2005. Just a subpar season. Then in The Game, the team gave us hope for a while before folding in the 4th.
2018 = 2004. After a loss at ND at the beginning, we went on a long winning streak. Optimism was high going into Columbus. In both games, they exploited one weakness in our defense all day and the score wasn't close.
So, 2019 = 2003. The team beat the other two rivals and is peaking in November after two losses early/mid-season. So, 35-21 good guys tomorrow. Go Blue!