Potential End of Year ScenarioQ: Who Gets In If....

The only scenario I see that UM wouldn't get in is if LSU beats Bama and both run the table and both Clemson and ND also win out.  That'd put UM against Bama for the last spot and I think UM would be out.  So- we actually need to root for Bama.

No way in hell UCF gets in. As you said, their SOS is garbage. A G5 team needs at least 1-2 wins over really good P5 teams, and then they need to beat everyone else by 40+ before they’ll even be considered. In your situation, we get in probably as the three seed to play Clemson, and ND would be then 4 seed. Even though they have the head to head, no conference championship game, and their SOS isn’t that great.

What Michigan needs to be most concerned about, if they manage to win the B1G, is if LSU beats Bama in a close game. Would a 12-1 Michigan team that won its conference get shafted for an 11-1 Bama team that didn’t even win its own division? Would the committee dare leave Bama out? I think the committee would do the right thing, but I could almost see it happen.

If Alabama loses to LSU they are out.  No way they put Bama in for having a 1-1 record against Top 25 teams.  C'mon people that's the BPONE talking.

If Michigan runs the table it's in the playoffs. But this is still putting the cart before the horse.

"Revenge Tour" continues with a victory over Penn State.  Then a victory of Ohio State.  Michigan then plays Iowa (yes Iowa) for the Big Ten championship.  Have to revenge over that stupid loss a couple of years ago.  Then we get matched up against ND and revenge the first game loss.  

Then some how Clemson beats Alabama and we face Clemson for the National Championship.

Beat Bye Week!

picture of our skis

picture of us way, way too far over our skis

but hey, let the joyful speculation go wild! 

Don't worry, I truly believe only Alabama will be undefeated at the end of the season. 

Couldn’t resist and took a peek behind the curtain...our Sparty friends have discussed a scenario where Sparty wins out and Michigan loses to PSU and OSU, which would result in Sparty going to Indy. ?

Michigan is in over UCF without a doubt. We have a huge fan base, and our one loss would be on the road week 1 to an undefeated CFP team.

If Michigan wins out, we're in regardless of what ND or anyone else does. 

I know they're not playing well right now, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see USC upset ND at the end of the season in Los Angeles. It might be Helton's last game as Trojan coach, and it's not unusual to see a team play above their heads to save an embattled HC.

We have to beat OSU regardless of where they're ranked, and from a playoff rankings standpoint it would have been better to beat an undefeated #2 OSU team in Columbus instead of one that just got its ass kicked in West Lafayette.

Bama hasn’t played anyone yet. I know the SEC hype machine is all over them, but let’s see if they can stay undefeated, even with their weak schedule. Keep in mind, most of the teams they beat have losing records. 5–2 A&M is their best win, but even that’s pretty weak to justify them as the #1 team in the country. 

The committee won't give any consideration to how our defense is ranked.  They are looking at game results, not stats.  And our schedule may turn out not to be as tough as it looked when the season started.  Certainly neither Wisconsin or MSU are as good as expected, and probably not Penn State either (not after we take them behind the woodshed in two weeks).  That's one of the main reasons why they don't release rankings until the end of October, when they have a better idea how good teams really are.

Need to focus on Penn State or there will be no "What if?"

It's "great to be a Michigan Wolverine" again. Love this type of banter late in year... Are we in if? these threads are awesome as opposed to "Harbaugh is not leaving the NFL to coach college"

Short version (assuming Michigan wins out):

UCF, USF, and Cinn are out of the picture regardless until such time as they start playing good teams. For example. You could claim that NC state was ranked 16th until yesterday, even though they had played absolutely nobody, and some nobodies to close games, but getting drubbed by Clemson should put them back more or less out of the top 25.

One loss teams that will get in possibly ahead of Michigan:

Alabama (if they have one loss but still win the SEC) or LSU (if they win out including the SEC) or Georgia (if they have one loss but still win the SEC).

None of that matters, as if a one loss SEC team wins the SEC Championship, that's the 3rd spot of 4, still allowing Michigan in. If one of the currently 1 loss SEC teams do not win the SEC, they won't get in ahead of Michigan due to everything happening including last year, that conference's failure to play non-cupcakes, and the pure crap storm 4 other P5 conferences would unleash on the NCAA for multi-year exclusions (excluding OSU last year was reasonable given they had some bad losses- Michigan does not).

Long version:

One loss teams with a chance (they all need to win out to have a chance assuming there are significant 0 and 1 loss options in contention for the CFP... this analysis goes out the window if say there are only 2-3 0-1 loss teams): 

Michigan (away night loss to ND early in the season)

Texas (Loss to Maryland- Michigan gets in over Texas based on the common opponent, Maryland. Also wins over USC and TCU are starting to look less impressive.)

LSU (Loss to Florida is starting to look more like Michigan's loss to ND, and they have good wins. However with the strongest schedule they still won't get in as a 2 loss team over a one loss Michigan (conference champ), which means they can only get in as a conference champion). 

Georgia (Same as LSU above).

Ohio State (welp. One bad loss to an unranked team again is enough to likely keep them out. As well, they won't be a 1 loss team if Michigan runs the tables:) Hopefully they don't fall too far as we still need a statement win in Columbus)

Oklahoma (their weak schedule with no big out of conference games is going to keep this team out. They controlled their own destiny- run the tables and they would have made it, so their conference can't complaint too much). It's also possible that the big 12 destroys itself again this year and we see no 1 loss options.

Florida (IF they beat Georgia and FSU and win the SEC conference, they would get the SEC seat at the table- having beaten LSU Georgia and probably Alabama -this is a big if for a team that lost by 2 scores to UK)

Iowa (If they get to their conference championship with just their current one loss- if Michigan wins the B1G they can't get in over Michigan- Iowa is actually looking stronger than we thought they would- even though their schedule has been fairly easy. I won't be surprised if they win vs PSU)

Washington State (Possibly the only hard decision the committee might have in my opinion as they could have a decent resume and no bad losses. They still have to play likely two better teams not including a conference championship in Stanford and Washington- both teams with enough losses to be out of CFP contention. Still that will be hard to do. Even if they do, they probably have less claim than a 1 loss Michigan that ran the conference schedule, and less claim than a loss-less ND given that ND has played the better half of that conference). 

Although it's fun to think about, it's more fun for me to take it one game at a time.

10 years of frustration being satisfied one bite at a time.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves too much. We have not beaten PSU and OSU yet. The ranking will take care of itself. I never pay attention to ranking until the last two weeks. There are still too many games ahead, anything can happen. It's just not healthy to put too high expectation to this team yet. The players are laser focus now. Just win the BIG championship, it's been how many years we have  won it? I can't even remember it. How many year we have been to BIG championship game? ZERO!

Forget about playoff! Win the next damn football game even Refs are against us. We will talk about playoff when the regular season is over.

the most impressive thing i'v seen about this team is that, since the NW game, the players can get over the humble from the gabage flags, and are laser focus on the next play. I'v not see this mentality since I watched Michigan football in early 2000s. Hope they will keep that all the way to the GAME. Because they will need it. 

I hope our fan base could have the same mentality as our players too.

I would think it would be Bama, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Michigan. UCF would probably finish like #6 - #8.

The only question is where 11-1 Alabama would fit if LSU beats them. or 12-1 Alabama if the SEC East champion beats them.  I think we jump them in either situation because the SEC West is down this year and Alabama only gets the champion from the better (!) East.  But don't know.

Pecking order:

Undefeated Alabama

Undefeated Clemson

Undefeated ND

1 loss SEC Champion (Alabama, LSU, Georgia, Florida, Kentucky all could be here)

1 loss Big 10 Champion (Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa)

1 loss Big 12 Champion (Oklahoma, Texas, West Virginia)

1 loss Clemson

1 loss Washington State

Undefeated UCF

And one loss non-conference champion Alabama fits there...somewhere.  I think behind the Big 10 champion, but I'm not sure.

Big Ten champ with one loss gets in.

If Michigan wins and does not get in, it would be the third year in a row that the Big Ten champion is shut out of the CFP.  The committee won't want to do that unless the Big Ten champion has two losses.