Potential CFP Scenario: No SEC Team
There is actually an interesting scenario where we could have a CFP with no SEC team in it.
Here is that "no SEC in the CFP" scenario:
- Michigan wins big, a convincing and dominant win.
- Washington wins big, a convincing and dominant win.
- FSU wins big, a convincing and dominant win.
That gives you three undefeated conference champions with convincing and dominant wins in their championship games. You can't make a reasonable case to leave them out of the CFP.
To continue:
- Texas wins big, a convincing and dominant win.
- Alabama beats Georgia in an ugly win that makes both teams look bad, ala the 6 to 3 LSU - Alabama game of several years ago.
That gives you three one-loss teams for one remaining CFP slot: Texas and Alabama who won their conferences, and Georgia who did not win their conference.
Who do you pick for that one slot?
The CFP committee has clearly stated that they value a conference championship. They are not going to pick Georgia over Alabama.
So now it's down to Texas and Alabama. Texas has already beaten Alabama head-to-head, at Tuscaloosa, by double digits. That matters. That's why you play the games. Alabama may counter by saying "Well we beat #1 Georgia, that proves how good we are." But Texas can counter that by saying "Well we beat YOU, that proves how good WE are."
It would be very hard to make a case to leave Texas out in favor of Alabama. So, this would result in a scenario of a CFP with no SEC team.
Could it happen?
Realistically . . . no.
The reality is that SEC bias is indeed a real thing, and the CFP committee will manufacture some BS reason to make sure that an SEC team is not left out, no matter what.
It would probably be undefeated Florida State that takes the fall to make way for an SEC team. The talking heads at ESPN are already trashing FSU left and right to pave the way for this scenario.
December 1st, 2023 at 10:51 AM ^
I agree with this take, M, WA, and FSU don't need convincing wins, just wins. They are top-ranked unbeaten conference champions, and even a weak win is not going to keep them out. So then there's just one spot and as you argue, it's hard to put in one over another unless that team is Texas. I think this is the most logical result of Alabama winning, and I'd guess it's actually the one the committee would go with, although I'm not wagering anything valuable on that.
December 1st, 2023 at 10:06 AM ^
Why is there an SEC bias in the CFP? Ratings? Does ESPN carry the games?
I just don't get it.
December 1st, 2023 at 10:15 AM ^
Ratings. ESPN carries the games.
December 1st, 2023 at 10:38 AM ^
Cunts.
Seems like those games should be on a network instead of a cable channel, but what do I know.
December 1st, 2023 at 11:11 AM ^
Can they get it off of New Year’s Eve while we’re at it? Fucking hell I have other plans on NYE. At least let the games start earlier…the only way I could watch the TCU game was because it was the earlier game.
December 1st, 2023 at 12:18 PM ^
Agreed. They're giving up a huge audience by having it on a day that so many people have plans not involving a television.
December 1st, 2023 at 10:06 AM ^
We wouldn't have to wait for November, 2024 for a certain POS to lose another election and claim again that it was stolen from him, we'd get the Second American Civil War next week if the SEC had two one-loss teams kept out. I'd LOVE the meltdown, but not happening lol.
December 1st, 2023 at 10:12 AM ^
This is a fun topic. PLEASE IGNORE THIS COMMENT!
December 1st, 2023 at 10:09 AM ^
I don't see Washington winning convincingly. I don't even see them winning, period.
FSU is a weird one, with a back up QB that doesn't look like the studs OSU had back in the day, I find it hard to believe they win big either. Pulling for them cuz that'd be a great first round draw.
With all the SEC bias, I don't see how an SEC champ Alabama gets left out.
Honestly I think having two SEC teams is far more likely than none.
December 1st, 2023 at 11:46 AM ^
I don't disagree with you but did anyone watch the Iron Bowl? That same Auburn the week prior got beat 31-10 by NM State! That and Bama looking pretty rough this year, still ranked behind Texas and losing the head to head vs Texas. I don't see any argument other than Saban's "it just means more" plea to argue for Bama.
December 1st, 2023 at 3:29 PM ^
Fair, but the committee clearly values conference champs. So if Bama wins the SEC this year I just don't see them getting left out. And I don't think you leave Georgia out either in that scenario.
December 1st, 2023 at 10:09 AM ^
Washington will do something convincingly tonight, lose.
FSU is possibly down to third string QB, likely loss.
Texas will win rather convincingly.
Michigan will win rather convincingly.
The question then becomes, can Alabama beat Georgia? If so, will Alabama bounce Oregon? Texas is safe. Head to head will assure that.
A Michigan and Bama game will be something the networks would drool over.
December 1st, 2023 at 10:17 AM ^
Oregon would not be bounced. The CFP committee is going to give the Pac 12 its going away present no matter what.
December 1st, 2023 at 11:53 AM ^
So would I. Did you see the way that Auburn carved up the Bama defense on the ground?
December 1st, 2023 at 10:16 AM ^
I would be very surprised if ESPN let this happen. Undefeated Michigan, Washington and FSU would be in. Big 12 champ Texas is very much going to get screwed, even though their one loss was to #12 Oklahoma by 4 points and THEY BEAT ALABAMA head to head. Alas, Alabama or Georgia would get the fourth spot. And let's be honest, if and when this happens, I don't think we want a semi-final matchup against either of Alabama or Georgia. Championship game matchup? Sure, so be it. But not a semi-final. I'd rather be the 2-seed and play FSU and let UW deal with that bullshit.
December 1st, 2023 at 10:17 AM ^
ESPN will not allow the SEC to be left out.
December 1st, 2023 at 10:21 AM ^
Probably not.
And yet, Fox Sports is willing to lose Michigan from its Big Ten investment.
Somebody from Fox Sports needs to get with somebody from ESPN behind closed doors and learn how to manipulate its conference and the media to do its bidding.
ESPN would never allow an internal take down to happen to Alabama or Georgia.
December 1st, 2023 at 10:21 AM ^
Probably not.
And yet, Fox Sports is willing to lose Michigan from its Big Ten investment.
Somebody from Fox Sports needs to get with somebody from ESPN behind closed doors and learn how to manipulate its conference and the media to do its bidding.
ESPN would never allow an internal take down to happen to Alabama or Georgia.
December 1st, 2023 at 12:31 PM ^
ESPN actually has zero say in the matter (well officially anyway).
December 1st, 2023 at 10:19 AM ^
People keep talking about “SEC bias”. Yes, Finebaum and Dinich are nauseating hacks and shills for the conference. But it’s hard to argue that the SEC hasn’t dominated the CFP since it began. So they probably deserve a spot in the CFP based on that alone, until someone else proves they can beat them.
December 1st, 2023 at 11:36 AM ^
Well they have had more opportunities to be apart of the BCS/CFP so of course they dominated. Remember in 2006 when OSU/UM were #1 and #2 going into the game and folks were saying they didn't want a rematch in the championship game for the BCS. Well something similar happened with Bama and LSU. They played a low scoring game in the SEC championship one year and then got to play again for championship in the BCS era. That is where the bias is resides.
December 1st, 2023 at 11:49 AM ^
No...LSU beat Bama in the regular season in Tuscaloosa plus LSU played a really really difficult schedule that year.
LSU never should have played Bama again. LSU deserved that NC and not simply because of the Bama win
December 1st, 2023 at 11:56 AM ^
So are we selecting team's based on this year or some other metric? Maybe give TCU a shot since they made the final last year.
December 1st, 2023 at 10:22 AM ^
The SEC will be left out if this scenario happens. Georgia, Bama, and Texas would be jockeying for #4. Georgia would drop out due to their lack of conference championship. Texas would get the nod over Bama due to head-to-head. Texas of all schools will not be left out if this occurs.
December 1st, 2023 at 10:24 AM ^
Wow! I can't belive no one has thought of this or discussed until the day before the games! Amazing
December 1st, 2023 at 10:26 AM ^
FSU would get left out
December 1st, 2023 at 11:19 AM ^
If FSU wins, there is no way an undefeated team gets bumped by a one loss team. That would be so unfair it’s crazy.
Best case for us is FSU and Alabama and UT win. We would be the one seed and would play Texas or better yet FSU
December 1st, 2023 at 10:31 AM ^
A 6-3 Bama win would make all the talk that, both teams are so good defensively that they should be 1 and 2. I really see no way that the SEC doesn't make the CFP. The big thing is, will they both?
December 1st, 2023 at 10:34 AM ^
Imho, SEC overrated this year. Georgia struggled with Georgia Tech who lost to Bowling Green. Auburn lost badly to New Mexico State and Bama win over Auburn last week was a fortunate clown show. Imo, Texas wins big, no way for Bama to jump Texas to get in since Texas beat Bama in Bama. While agree ESPN shills for SEC and has pull, its theoretically possible for SEC to be excluded should Georgia lose. That said, really doubtful Georgia loses to Bama this year.
December 1st, 2023 at 10:35 AM ^
The real issue, IMO, is that Georgia should be out of it loses to Bama (which should be in). Georgia will have beaten no Top 10 team; its schedule was easier than Michigan's. Any other team would be out.
December 1st, 2023 at 10:43 AM ^
They're not going to have an SEC-free playoff. They've won too many of the natties. And the committee knows it won't matter next year with the expanded playoff.
December 1st, 2023 at 10:53 AM ^
who cares, beat Iowa
December 1st, 2023 at 10:57 AM ^
If Bama beats UGA and we win over Iowa, then I think you will have:
1. UM
2. Bama (if Oregon wins), otherwise Washington if they beat Oregon
3. Oregon, if they beat Washington, otherwise Bama if Wash wins
4. UGA
Texas loses out because a win over Ok State is not enough. This is where Texas needed Okie to win at Kansas. A revenge win over an 11-1 Okie may have been enough to get to 4 over UGA
FSU is going to feel the "Dennis Franklin" syndrome where you deserve a top game (Rose Bowl for us in 1973) only to have a "committee" screw you over. This happened with B1G ADs in 1973.
December 1st, 2023 at 11:31 AM ^
ESPN will simply not allow a playoff without at least one SEC team in it.
December 1st, 2023 at 11:54 AM ^
Iowa will be trying to stop the run. JJ will have to throw some to open up the run, Ala, a play-action practice game. I don't think JJ runs are necessary in this game. If he is banged up a bit, better to have a fully healthy JJ for the playoffs. Michigan offense will score over 20 points on the Iowa defense. Michigan defense will keep the Iowa offense under 10 points. This seems like a Michigan 29 vs Iowa 6 type game.
December 1st, 2023 at 12:02 PM ^
It would be glorious to see Finebaum self-immolate.
December 1st, 2023 at 1:45 PM ^
Lol I swear I didn’t see your post before I posted mine. Great minds…
December 1st, 2023 at 12:05 PM ^
If Bama beats UGA, the Bama will win the SEC and will be in the playoffs. UGA is the team that should be left out in this case. I still think UGA is the better team and will win.
If UGA and Oregon wins
1. UGA
2. UM
3 FSU
4. Oregon
If UGA and Washington wins.
1.UGA
2. UM
3. Washington
4. FSU.
If Bama wins
If Bama wins
1. Michigan
2. FSU
3. Oregon/Washington
4. Bama
December 1st, 2023 at 12:18 PM ^
Don't forgot that the CFP Committee still has the "4 BEST TEAMS" and not "4 MOST DESERVING" card to play.
Which will result in Georgia still making it in.
They will unjustly use the "they have been the most dominant team in CFP for the last 3 years card" even though that would be the lamest argument ever when talking about THIS YEARS best team.
December 1st, 2023 at 12:19 PM ^
Don't be so sure UGa can't get in over Bama if Bama wins.
If the committee has to choose ONE of 12-1 Georgia, 12-1 Texas, and 12-1 Alabama... it's a mental connundrum. Bama "can't" go in over Texas. And Georgia "can't" go in over Bama? But Georgia is #1 now and Bama #8... would Georgia really fall to #5 and Bama up to at least #4? USO only dropped #2 to #5 losing to us.
The committee could say, the Texas win over Bama, and the Texas lose to whomever they lost to, disqualify both. Georgia has the "best loss" of the three, was dominant the rest of the year, and Georgia gets in.
December 1st, 2023 at 12:27 PM ^
If the scenario above plays out in terms of wins and losses then, yeah, I think the SEC is left out. Alabama has been trying to lose games for weeks now and if you put them in over Texas then you're basically saying head-to-head and same record don't count, which is bananas. Also, Texas has played a tough Big 12 schedule; they aren't backing into it.
That said, I doubt all of the above happens. My guess is Georgia wins but Washington doesn't and so we have some configuration of UM, UGa, Oregon, and FSU.
December 1st, 2023 at 12:28 PM ^
If Michigan wins we’re in that’s one spot. I think PAC-12 game is a play-in game as the winner will have impressive victories including a top-5 win to finish off the season. That’s two teams. If FSU does beat Louisville that proves they are still a decent team and I don’t think you can punish a team for losing their QB. Yes their offense isn’t probably as explosive but their overall body of work would have to speak for itself. That’s three spots. If Texas wins and Bama wins it comes down to those two teams and I think you have to go with the head to head victory otherwise what are we even doing. It would be an utter travesty
We’ll see what happens.
December 1st, 2023 at 12:30 PM ^
Dude its not happening. If Alabama wins, its more likely that both them and Georgia get in and FSU/Texas get screwed.
December 1st, 2023 at 12:32 PM ^
Think that would be healthy. Might address the impression that the fix is always in. Spread the freaking wealth.
December 1st, 2023 at 12:39 PM ^
This was brought up by Jon Jansen on The Ticket's morning show. Would be awesome to not have an SEC team and no OSU in the playoffs. On the other hand, if this scenario were to happen and Michigan is the number 1 seed, then they would play a tougher team in Texas than Washington and FSU would playing each other, unless Texas jumps FSU for 3rd.
December 1st, 2023 at 1:29 PM ^
There is no universe where this happens. Although seeing ESPN meltdown would be hilarious.
December 1st, 2023 at 1:43 PM ^
Pete Finebaum would self-immolate in protest if this happens.
December 1st, 2023 at 2:53 PM ^
And the TV networks would allow that? Riiiiight….
December 1st, 2023 at 6:03 PM ^
SEC won't be left out. If anything a Bama win will cause a full assault to get both in.
Overall, last year it was stated that a team won't be explicitly penalized for making their CCG. USC was left out last year because they already had a loss and their defense was shown to be nonexistent. It was like it didn't exist rather than be mediocre. The 2nd loss, a bad loss at that, did them in. TCU lost and didn't even fall.
If that hold true I don't know if chaos can exist. It would take the committee ignoring their own precedent and I'm sure that's possible but I'd wait to see it before betting on it ahead of time.