Phil Steele ranks Michigan #7 in early poll
Just behind #6 OSU. One factor besides Harbaugh is SOS, which he ranks #78 in the nation.
http://www.mlive.com/wolverines/index.ssf/2016/05/michigan_no_7_on_phil…
Too low!
Stewart Mandel over at FoxSports has us at #5
http://www.foxsports.com/college-football/story/alabama-florida-state-c…
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With no more than 1 loss. A 2-loss B1G champ is probably on the outside looking in.
There's zero chance of a 2 loss team winning the B1G east.
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If we go unrdefeated, or perhaps lose one but still win the conference, we are a lock for the playoff.
That's not what he's saying.
You're both right.
If we win the Big Ten we will be in, most likely even if we have one loss (as long as it was relatively close against a decent team and there aren't a bunch of undefeated conference champs).
However, in terms of strength of schedule rankings, non-conference matters the most because the difficulty of Power 5 conference schedules are all very similar. Our non-conference is as weak as it possibily could be.
I don't think that's true. Most top programs actually have pretty similar nonconference schedules. They'll play maybe one top team, one okay team, and a cupcake or two.
But there's a ton of variation in 8-9 game conference schedules, especially across conferences. If you're Mississippi State, you're playing Alabama, LSU, Auburn, Texas A&M, Ole Miss, and Arkansas every year, with some Florida/Georgia/Tennessee sprinkled in. You won't see schedules nearly that tough in the ACC Coastal (Duke, UNC, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Pitt, and Miami).
Yeah, but our non-conference has zero top teams and probably zero okay teams too. Literally three cupcakes all at home.
Also, in conference we have more home games than road games (5 home, 4 road).
That's one case, and it's an unusual one, since we were expecting to play ND this year in South Bend.
To add to that, even within conferences - and divisions - there's a lot of variation in conference schedules. Purdue's toughest game this year is probably at home against Iowa (or at Nebraska?). Wisconsin plays @ Michigan, @ MSU, Ohio State, @ Iowa, and @ Northwestern. That's way more variation than you'll find across nonconference schedules.
Most (not all) Power Five teams have several good opponents within their conference. Often, the strength of schedule has to do with non-conference opponents. That's the thing that would separate us from a bunch of teams in the Big Ten. But we're not playing anyone noteworthy in the non-conference schedule.
To put it another way, OSU is playing conference foes...and Oklahoma. MSU is playing conference foes...and Notre Dame and BYU. Alabama is playing conference foes...and USC.
I could keep going, but you probably get the point. Everyone has conference opponents. That doesn't separate you from the pack.
This is true, it just doesn't really matter. If we finish the regular season undefeated, we'll be in the playoff (and still might be even with one loss, provided it doesn't occur in the Big Ten title game).
matter though, because at MSU, at Iowa, at OSU is a serious string of games, and you have to figure that we will have an injury or two by that point in the season. It would be nice to have one good, or even average, out of conference opponent to hang our hat on. There are 5 power conferences and 4 spots in the playoff. There is going to be a team with a beef every year. With no out of conference opponents of note, a one loss Michigan team could be that team this year.
Maybe, but still relatively unlikely I feel. If anything, we've got the national brand name that OSU had help it into the 2014 playoffs.
Regardless, I think we'd all agree that there are 9 games we should win (and must win if we're going to win the Big Ten). Then our three late, difficult road games. But the thing is, Iowa is the only one that would matter in terms of making the CFP with one loss, because if we lose to MSU or OSU we are very likely not going to win the Big Ten.
I'd find it hard to believe a close road night loss to a probable Big Ten West champion would keep us out of the playoffs, especially if we have a revenge game in Indianapolis and beat them. (Iowa is definitely the favorite in the West, not because of talent, but just because their schedule is far, far easier than any other West contender. Wisconsin's schedule is brutal. I'd honestly say that Wisconsin may have the hardest schedule in the entire Big Ten and Iowa may have the easiest).
That brand name carries a ton of weight. Of all the 1 loss teams, OSU had the worst loss of them all to unranked Virigina Tech...at home. The only explanation for them being selected to the playoff was because of their brand name.
It was annoying but at the time, I figured had Michigan been in that exact same position, we would have been selected as well. I'm not saying it's right but that's how it is.
But that's a lot of "what if" talk right now. We have a hell of November to try and survive and if we do, we'd still have the conference title game to attend to. That's a ton of difficult challenges to be completed before we can logically have these kind of discussions.
They were also coming off a 59-0 rout of Wiscy in the CCG, i.e. playing better than anyone at the end of the season.
No, it doesn't. If we lose once on the road to OSU, MSU, or Iowa but still win the Big Ten, we're in the playoff. If the same thing happens but we don't win the Big Ten, we're not in the playoff. It's as simple as that.
If we lose once, beat OSU, and win the Big Ten title, resulting in both OSU and us only having one loss, it's not going to matter that the Buckeyes beat Oklahoma during the non-conference scheudle and we didn't really play anybody. We'll be in the playoff, and they won't. A one loss, Big Ten champion Michigan team isn't getting left out.
I basically agree. I think the playoff situation looks like this--
Definitely in if:
- Undefeated
Probably in if:
- Win conference with one loss (ideally not to OSU)
Probably out if:
- Win conference with two losses
- Undefeated until loss in conference championship game
Definitely out if:
- Lose 3+ games
- Lose 2 games and don't win conference
Yeah, this is pretty much how I see it. And basically what the situation will be every year for us so, in that respect, it's almost better not to play a tough out of conference slate. The only thing I would add is that if we were undefeated going into the Big Ten title game and lost to like a 3 loss Wisconsin team or something, it's possible that we still could get in if it happens to be a weak year in terms of competition for the last playoff spot or two.
Beyond that, look at what a weak schedule did for OSU and MSU last year. They struggled against those teams and it haunted them the entire season. There is no advantage to playing only high school teams in the non-conference. There's only the opportunity to fall. You crush them and you did what you were supposed to. You lose and you drop like a rock and don't ever get taken seriously the rest of the season unless your schedule happens to include LSU, Bama and GA, which ours doesn't. OSU and MSU may help, but it can't erase a bad game against Hawaii. I love strong OOC games. It tests us early and sets the stage for the rest of the season. Perception is likely a bigger impact on success now than it was before. Just ask OSU 2 years ago. They don't crush Wisconsin in the B1G championship and they don't get in. That was entirely drive by perception.
A weak schedule did not haunt eithr MSU or OSU last year. MSU made the playoff, If OSU had beaten MSU they would have made the playoff.
And at the end of the year, there was plenty of discussion around whether MSU's inability to decisively win against weaker teams had them on the outside. The PAC 12 hadn't shit the bed, there's a good chance MSU doesn't make the playoff. After MSU then completely got destroyed in the playoff, the selection committee is more likely to be questionable against teams who struggle against weaker opponents.
What makes you think Michigan is going to struggle against weaker opponents?
I'm not saying they will. Just saying that a weaker non-conference schedule gives a team absolutely no advantage, only risks.
I actually think the exact opposite is true. Michigan is going to get into the playoff any year they either go undefeated or win the Big Ten title with only one loss, regardless of their non-conference slate. Scheduling difficult non-conference opponents just increases the possibility that we'd lose in the non-conference, completely removing our margin for error against the diificult teams in the Big Ten. If we don't play anybody and remain undefeated before the Big Ten schedule starts, we can afford to drop a game during the conference season and still get into the playoff.
In that sense, a weaker non-conference gives a team like Michigan no risks at all.
That is true of any team in any conference. The committee talks tough on SOS, but as usual its bullshit. SEC still plays D1AA teams and does not get penalized for it.
All that is necessary is to be in the top four of five* conference champions (providing you aren't a three-plus loss conference champion that could be considered to have backed in and could be easily passed over politically by a non-champion.)
*Or four of six if ND is in contention.
State beat Oregon before the conference started, beat Michigan(#12), Ohio State(#3) and Iowa(#4) in conference. I don't think schedule was a problem for them last year.
Our OOC slate is inconceivably bad, but note that we scheduled UCF while they were in the middle of a BCS Bowl-winning season in 2013. UCF drop like brick since. And Colorado is a Power 5 team that I don't think we expected to be a Sagarin 100ish team. Hawaii has been decent at times. We also get them after they've put in a Sagarin 100ish year.
The Conference Crossovers depend upon the luck of the draw, and this year we get two of three good ones in Wisconsin and @Iowa. (Illinois, not so much.)
And our Conference Division obviously contains OSU & MSU, and we play them both away this year.
That gives us four marquee games, three games against likely flea-bag bowl participants (PSU, Indiana, and Illinois), and five gimmes.
Add in a conference championship win, and I think that's good enough to get into the playoff. Not "separate" ourselves, but just enough to avoid being the fifth in line for four slots (or sixth if ND is in contention).
The nonconference games just jump off the page in a way that conference games don't. When you see Oregon or LSU or USC as a nonconference game, it stands out and looks like a tough schedule no matter what follows it. But then when you look down a set of Big Ten teams, it just looks like a blurry list of Big Ten teams and it's easy to overlook the huge variation within and across conference schedules.
Sure but other B1G teams don't have the only two competent west teams as their crossovers. Moreover, I don't know if SoS accounts for home/road, but it strikes me that having all three of our strongest opponents away makes our prospects for goint 2-1/3-0 over that stretch significantly lower.
Seems like our B1G schedule could be significantly easier. MSU/OSU at home+Illinois/Purdue crossovers would feel like a cakewalk to the playoff.
The non-conference schedule is terrible. Colorado had the best record of the three teams we're going to play and they won 4 games last year.
Buffalo, SDSU, Cal and Florida A&M.
They were ranked #2 until they lost to MSU in the B1G title game.
Most of our mediocre teams from 2008-2014 would have navigated this schedule to bowl contention (ok, maybe not 2008) pretty easily. There are also more gimmes than I can remember:
- vs Hawaii -- 2-10 in 2015 vs FBS competition, from five timezones away, coming off a trip to Australia the previous week
- vs UCF -- winless in 2014
- vs Colorado -- 3-9 vs FBS competition a year ago
- @Rutgers -- it's Rutgers
- vs Illinois -- it's Illinois (also coming off a bye)
- vs Maryland -- it's Maryland
- vs Indiana -- lost a ton of the semi-terrifying offensive talent that had made them a tougher out
That leaves us with five losable games to top 40 (50? 60?) opponents. The season comes down to not tripping up against the solid B1G teams (PSU, Wisconsin, @Iowa) and then winning the wars in East Lansing and Columbus.
Sure it sucks that both rivalry games are on the road, but other than that any team with playoff aspirations would be thrilled to have this navigable schedule.
worth concerning ourselves about. I love how no pundit ever takes the SEC to task for playing 8 conference games and 4 non-cons with two at the beginning and two at the end of each season before a closeout rivalry. And the non-con rarely if ever includes a journey beyond regional borders.
Moreover, the SEC still schedules FCS programs while the remaining Power 5 schools and conferences have vowed not to do that.
Indeed. LSU was ranked 4th in the country at 7-0 when four of the wins came from victories over McNeese State, Syracuse (their football team, not their basketball team), Eastern Michigan, and Western Kentucky. Doesn't seem like that pathetic schedule (worse than Michigan's in 2016) hurt them.
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Who cares about Phil Steele? Where does Phil McCrevice rank us???
Steele actually has a pretty good record. that being said it's summer....
Don't you come near my dog Chunks!!!
Actually he predicted that the AP will predict that we are the 7th best team. One the more offseason-y things to do.