Our man Duncan Robinson is going to get PAID

Submitted by drz1111 on August 2nd, 2021 at 12:22 PM

Duncan Robinson is going to get a huge contract.  Very happy for the guy.  Deserves every penny.

 

https://www.si.com/nba/2021/08/02/2021-nba-free-agency-preview-rumors-buzz

 

Duncan Robinson ranks among the best shooters in this year’s class. Hard to see Miami letting Robinson walk, however, with several execs expecting to see Robinson re-up with the Heat on a new deal that averages in the neighborhood of $18 million per season.

kjhager444

August 2nd, 2021 at 12:43 PM ^

Heat fans on reddit are suggesting that they literally can't afford to not match because he's one of the only shooters on the team (especially with Bam/Jimmy being the predominant ballhandlers, and DeRozan rumors).

Matt EM

August 2nd, 2021 at 12:47 PM ^

I honestly think Duncan could've been in the 20mill range but not for some of his struggles in the playoffs. I think it's probably more likely he ends up in the 15-18 million range given his defensive limitations that have been a bit exposed over the last two years. Still, this is a guy that went from D3 that will eclipse 100 million dollars in earnings within 5-6 years in all likelihood. Hell of a story.

NYC Fan3

August 2nd, 2021 at 12:50 PM ^

Great to see, very happy for him.  He seems to be a very bright, grounded young man who could turn his next deal into generational wealth.  Still love that he keeps a LinkedIn profile.

https://www.linkedin.com/in/duncan-robinson-6b613314a

Congrats Duncan!

thespacepope

August 2nd, 2021 at 12:52 PM ^

Here's a little known fact about Duncan Robinson. He started off at Williams College which is a Division 3 school.

Here's another fact, his college coach at Michigan, John Beilein, was never an assistant coach.

JamieH

August 2nd, 2021 at 1:26 PM ^

Go figure.  Stauskas is out of the league, and D-Rob is going to make 15-20 million a year.  I would not have predicted things would go this way.

ShadowStorm33

August 2nd, 2021 at 1:43 PM ^

Crazy how Duncan, who not only wasn't really a starter on that 2018 Final Four team but wasn't even drafted either, is looking like he'll nonetheless have the best pro career of anyone on that squad (that included two 1st rounders and a 2nd). Maybe Poole will end up eclipsing him, but Robinson has carved out a hell of a career for someone I think most here doubted would ever even make the NBA.

JamieH

August 2nd, 2021 at 1:51 PM ^

Which raises a question--was he massively underutilized at Michigan?  Or did he significantly improve?

I know he has talked about his work with the Heat really upping his game, but nothing he talked about seemed like things he couldn't have been working on in college.

It never seemed like Michigan did much to generate open shots for him.  I realize the team was pretty damn good anyway.

Angry-Dad

August 2nd, 2021 at 2:21 PM ^

I think what really makes him stick in the NBA is his continued improvement to hit shots while in motion.  He really did not have that coming off the screen curl 3 point shot at Michigan because he did not have to.  He is elite at doing that now.  As long as he can hit that shot he will be in the league for a long time. 

JamieH

August 2nd, 2021 at 2:35 PM ^

I know he didn't have that shot at Michigan, but wouldn't it have required someone to actually set a screen for him?  I don't remember much of that happening at Michigan--he just seemed to float on the wings and wait for the defense to get drawn away from him by a penetration.  If the other team stuck someone to him who didn't help, he was just not open.

Wallaby Court

August 2nd, 2021 at 2:53 PM ^

Probably a bit of both. I have not had a chance to dig it up yet, but Robinson gave an interview as he was attracting press for his rise up Miami's roster. In it, I recall him attributing his success to a massive amount of work (and thus, improvement) on skills that would make him more valuable in the NBA. Robinson implied that he put a lot more effort into transforming and improving his game once he sniffed the NBA and realized he wasn't going to stick around on innate talent alone.

bronxblue

August 2nd, 2021 at 2:58 PM ^

Yeah, that was what I always thought was the difference between Robinson and Stauskas - Stauskas never seemed to demonstrably improve as a shooter once he got to the NBA, and he didn't have the athleticism to make up for it when the defenders got better (plus his defense never improved).  I don't think that's necessarily his fault - the Kings were/are an awfully run place while Miami may be the best in the league.  Young guys can only improve so much if the systems around them are bad, but that feels like a key difference in their diverging careers.

Angry-Dad

August 2nd, 2021 at 9:22 PM ^

Stauskas went were NBA dreams go to die.  The Kings are a dumpster fire from the front office on down.  So glad that Franz did not end up there.  By the time he got shipped out of there it was too late.  I think he could have been a rotation player on the right squad.  

 

Matt EM

August 2nd, 2021 at 2:58 PM ^

It's the intersection of opportunity + fit that has allowed success at the NBA level for Duncan. That is the case for nearly every non-athletic role player. Spoelstra maximizes shooters similar to a college team. He does it with guys like Olynk, Goran, etc. I'm not sure Duncan would be what he is on another team. Spo plays to his strengths while attempting to limit his weaknesses. His role did decrease a bit this year, as Spoelstra is likely pondering whether Robinson is best served as a starter (defending starting wings and getting hunted from time to time) or as a spark-plug off the bench. Im guessing that ultimately he'll be moved to the bench for whatever team he ends up with within a few years. But not before he gets 100 million!

dragonchild

August 2nd, 2021 at 5:04 PM ^

It’s also math; Robinson’s accuracy has been insane. In most cases it’s like, who cares if he gets burned on defense now and then?  He hits threes, at high volume, at basically the same pace a league-average wing hits twos.  If his accuracy was just a few points lower, Spo would have a much tougher decision to make.

Matt EM

August 2nd, 2021 at 5:29 PM ^

Geez this is an excellent post. Spot on with so many points. You are exactly right, Robinson is a supreme value for the regular season at 15-18 million. The officiating favors the offense so much during the regular season that Duncan's value as a shotmaker with gravity may actually exceed that. The question, as you note, is whether he's good enough to be on the court for 25+ minutes per game in high-stakes playoff games. I'd probably lean no. And that is the dilemma the Heat are in...............which is "are we going to pay a guy 15-20 million per year that we probably can't play for more than 20 minutes a night when it matters most?" A guy like Alex Caruso isn't worth what Duncan is in the regular season, but he's probably more valuable when it matters most because the game is officiated differently. It's a tough dilemma to be in and I don't know that there is an easy answer.

jclay 2 electr…

August 2nd, 2021 at 6:46 PM ^

5 years/$90mil for Duncan. Largest contract ever given to an undrafted player in NBA history. 
 

Guy was a zero-star recruit that started in D3 and is going to make 9-figures balling. What a story.