OT: Talking Cars Tuesday - It's electric
Better late than never!
Anyway - on to our topic for the week. The big Auto news (somewhat befuddling to me) is the Tesla Model 3 and how excited folks are for it. So - electrics. Do you think you'd buy one? What would it take to get you to buy electric? Are you waiting for something? I'll answer in the comments as per normal...
But that is still three Michigan Stadiums of people. Three. It is not a fact that should be used to piviot to scoffing at or denegrating the potential of a new business enterprise.
It's too bad Fisker (the company) died
And too bad Fisker (the guy) is an asshole. Maybe Bob Lutz can sell you a Destino?
I am fully on board with this technology. Full disclosure - I have a deposit in on a Model 3. Having driven the Model S several times over the years and I am a full believer. Sure, the technology needs to keep improving and getting cheaper but right now the Model S beats most of its competitors on most measures other than re-fueling convenience (and that is tipping closer to neutral). The performance and looks of the new models are compelling. I see a shift coming in the next 5-10 years with full electrics will be a significant share of the market. Obviously, the vast decline of fuel prices are slowing down adoption right now but if prices go back up, I feel the technology will be there to support a paradigm shift.
I was SO pissed off when I bought a Ford Fusion, opened the hood, and saw an ICE powering the damned thing. I didn't do my homework and assumed cold fusion had become reality to power my $20K car.
If you are willing to drive a semi, Lockheed might have you covered in about 20 years.
but he has a limited commute and i think for the foreseeable future electric cars are niche vehicles. nice concept, great if they can go further for cheaper, with much faster re-charge.
also, the not-so-secret secret is that the batteries at some point have to be replaced, and getting rid of the old ones make for a significant environemental problem (mercury, lead, etc.) that most don't take into account. and those are big batteries.
we run diesels and since i can make the fuel from cooking oil in the barn, i'm not worried about running out or hurting the enviroment.
they leave the jugs outside the back door and i drive by and put them in the back of the truck.
and yeah, it does smell amazingly good when burning and it makes the diesels run quieter b/c of the much greater lubricity that the ULSD lacks. better mileage too. the only hang up is that i don't like to run it in the winter weather b/c the biodiesel has a higher gel point and it won't do me any good to have a tank full of crisco, waiting to thaw.
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Tesla's batteries use lithium-ion technology, they don't contain mercury or lead. It's true that recycling will present a challenge since it currently makes no economic sense, but we're not there yet. When we get there, there will be a solution. That's years away.
Biodeisel still has a carbon impact, it's just offset by growing vegetable matter to make the oil. I guess I buy that argument but I'd rather see the carbon stay trapped in the fat and have the energy generated in another way.
You're most likely charging the Tesla off of a coal plant. Maybe wind or nuclear, but most likely coal.
Nuclear = 20%
Hydro = 6%
Other Renewables = 7%
Hydro and renewables are higher than I thought.
any time you can power your car and fill the world with french fry smell (depending on the source) you're doing a good thing.
As someone with a motorcycle classification on his license, I think I'll try an electric bike first. Whether it be a scooter, dual sport or trials bike, I haven't yet decided.
http://www.evelo.com/?gclid=Cj0KEQjwxI24BRDqqN3f-97N6egBEiQAGv37hMt0udv…
Probably not what you had in mind, but it would be easy to make this into what you want.
Or, you could hit 218 MPH on this beast.
Regardless, in the next five years you're going to see some great advancement in this area of automotive. I work at an auto company so I know what's coming soon, and it'll be exciting. I'm strongly considering buying one in 5 years if it all pans out, from my company or elsewhere.
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Your 3x cleaner figure is almost spot on with this infographic, for what it's worth.
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I have also heard three to one and that is assuming the electricity is from the dirtiest sources (which we are obviously moving away from).
There were a lot of concerns about the capacity of the electric grid a few years ago. I haven't been hearing much about that lately, but it can't have just gone away. Seems that we'd need to solve this if we put additional strain on it by adding the charging of millions of cars. What I've heard discussed about that is most electric vehicle charging is done at night, when demand for everything else is lower. Makes sense, though I'm not sure if this would hold up as more and more charging moves to public places versus at home - ie, more likely to happen during the day.
I am not sure what "driver" would have a hands-on review since the Model 3 was just "released" and no one was allowed to drive one (only ride alongs). Hard to say it's not a driver's car when the reviewer has not driven it.
And you really need to drive one before deciding that. The Tesla Model S is plenty of a "driver's car" although admittedly its not as jerky or loud as a traditional sports car. But it does put you into the back of the seat and because the battery pack is located at the floor, the center of gravity is very low and allows for good, responsive handling.
Where does he get all the rare earth metals for the battery pack?
In going electric around here, I'm putting my power generation from my efficient, very emission controlled motor and putting it on a coal plant that's 50 years old or more.
Electric is good in theory, but I think you get a much better environmental bang for your buck with hybrids. It would be better, if that's your cup of tea, to go diesel/electric.
And it really depends where you are in the country. If you're in Phoenix, which relies on old dirty coal plants located up on the Navajo Reservation for a lot of electrical generation, then an electric car is going to be less green. If you're in the Pacific Northwest, which relies on hydro, it's going to be greener. Michigan's largely a mix of coal, nuke and natural gas, but has seen a boom in wind over the past 6-7 years.
Here's Michigan's energy map and profile
TBH I can't see the appeal in the looks of the Model 3. I think it's ugly. Not even the lack of grille, just the shape and lines. On the other hand I always liked the Volt, and the ELR is excellent and looks way more like a futuristic sci-fi car - like something you'd see anime artists conceive - than anything Tesla builds.
Yeah one criticism I've heard of Tesla is that few models are available at the list price. But they still qualify for credits to the estimated real price of the Model 3 right now is actually 27-28k, I think.
Not likely to happen. The $7500 tax credit phases out 12 months after Tesla sells their 200,000th vehicle. The Model 3 is coming out, according to Tesla, late 2017, but then Tesla has missed 100% of their stated delivery deadlines. They've sold about 73,000 in their lifetime so far and in two years when the Model 3 is actually ready, they'll be up to about 125,000. So at most 75,000 of them, plus 12 months of deliveries (and during that 12 months, the tax credit shrinks), will get the credit. But fewer than that, because they're not going to stop selling Model S and X.
And then there's the fact that Tesla is reserving the first Model 3s for current Tesla owners, in other words, rich people who don't need the credit and will load up on options.
So it would be a surprise to me if Tesla ever sells a sub-$30K Model 3. Oh, and the closer you are to California, the sooner you'll get one, so the East Coast won't see them for like four years.
(This is to say nothing of the fact that a $7500 tax credit is not a $7500 tax refund. It's just the IRS deciding you made $7500 less than you did and deducting that from your taxable income. You're still forking out $35K for the car, you're just not counting part of that on your income.)
O I C. Ignore that last bit then. I suppose it's exactly the opposite of what I said in that last paragraph, isn't it?
So far, in the whole universe of electrified cars since the EV1, the Volt is the only one that I've ever seriously considered being an early adopter of. GM deserves more credit than they get, IMO. I'm looking forward to when PHEVs are more ubiquitous. I think about three years and you'll start to see them become fairly ubiquitous on dealer lots, to the extent that there'll be real choice in the market. Right now you're choosing between an EV and a PHEV - by 2019, 2020, we'll be saying, I want a PHEV (or HEV or EV), which one should I get?