OT: SpaceX plans to launch Starship on Monday morning
Your political opinion of Elon Musk doesn't matter, so leave that at home...
SpaceX is finally ready to launch the largest, and most powerful, rocket ever built. The launch is planned for Monday morning, with the launch window opening at 5AM EST for 3 hours. The Super Heavy booster has 33 engines that produce a collective 17.1M lbs of thrust. For comparison, the SLS booster that recently sent the Orion capsule around the moon produces 8.8M lbs of thrust. The Starship second stage can host ~150T of cargo on the strength of SH's engines, while SLS can loft 90T.
This is its maiden flight, and the success goals are simple - clear the tower without destroying the launch complex! If that happens, getting through MaxQ will be the next goal, and then a successful separation of SH and Starship. After that, SpaceX will try a controlled descent and 'landing' of the booster in the Gulf of Mexico, near the launch site. The Starship vehicle is hoping to reach orbital velocity (~17.5K mph) before re-entering and crashing into the Pacific ~200 miles north of Hawaii. It'll be interesting to see if Starship can re-enter without burning up, should it get that far.
Success of this machine will bring a revolution to space flight. It's thought that SpaceX has spent ~$5B on the development of SH/SS to this point, over ~7-10 years. The entire thing is designed from the ground up to be fully reusable, and is hoped to fly several times a day in the future. It is also the moon lander that NASA will use to land people back on the moon, and is the first step of Mars lander that Musk hopes to colonize Mars with.
Contrast all that to NASA's reuse of Shuttle technology to build SLS. It took NASA over 20 years, and ~$23B to adapt 1960's Shuttle technology into a new booster that gets dropped in the ocean because its design is ~60 years old. SLS will also cost ~2B/launch - ONE launch will cost $2B!!! And you just throw it into the ocean!
Link? Link...
April 15th, 2023 at 10:19 AM ^
Oh god...here come the Musk fanboys.
April 15th, 2023 at 10:56 AM ^
What was that first sentence in the OP???
I'm no fanboy, and I don't give a rats ass if you are, or not. But differentiate the person from the engineer. I'll agree that the person is a complete asshole; but the engineer is fucking brilliant. Like it or don't, he built Paypal, Tesla, and SpaceX from scratch. This post is about SpaceX, which is the most modern, forward thinking, cost effective, and technically advanced space launch company in the history of the world. And that fact cannot be argued.
April 15th, 2023 at 11:08 AM ^
You cannot deny his success with those companies but he isn't an engineer. He has bachelor degrees in physics and economics but never completed a graduate degree.
If you want to praise the engineering leadership at SpaceX, that would likely be the longtime president and current COO Gwynne Shotwell who was in charge of most of their early ground breaking projects.
April 15th, 2023 at 11:18 AM ^
You can quibble about degrees, but the guy is the Chief Engineer at both companies and he makes the engineering decisions accordingly. Gwen runs the business, she does not have a say in the actual engineering of the vehicles.
April 15th, 2023 at 11:50 AM ^
He's the majority owner of the company. He can assign himself whatever title he wants. You really think he's in a lab somewhere testing rockets with a bachelors degree? Would you get surgery from a guy who a took human physiology and biology course in college?
April 15th, 2023 at 12:40 PM ^
Thank you. This is the problem with Musk fanboys. This isn't even about his politics, which the o.p., by their statement, admits are shitty. It's about the confusion of him with the character of Tony Stark--Ironman--that Musk is that same fun-loving, shit-talking, engineer, rocket-scientist, superhero. Musk is a venture capitalist--he invests in companies that other people have built/are building. And there's nothing wrong with that! He has a good record as a v.c. So respect him as that, rather than demanding that everyone else worship the fantasy superhero Musk of your dreams.
April 15th, 2023 at 12:51 PM ^
He also exhibits strong tendencies to oversell and underdeliver, as well as a tendency to be dismissive of problems and view them as something that will just get fixed in the next software update.
I'm not sure those are the best qualities to have in leading the charge for attempting manned missions in outer space.
Also, as someone who earned a doctorate in aerospace engineering and worked in the industry, I can say with certainty that Musk isn't the "genius" responsible for engineering this system.
LOL!!! You, Yoyo, and Clarence have some hate inside you! Seriously - you think David Steinman designed the Mackinaw Bridge on his own? Do you think Kelly Johnson designed the SR-71 all by himself? I suppose Dwight Eisenhower single-handedly defeated Germany in WWII?
Stop living with so much hate, you'll be happier people...
I think I've actually met the man. Have you?
I think I've actually been involved from the government side in funding SpaceX, which I supported by the way.
I want SpaceX to succeed, not fail. Hate has nothing to do with it. You are completely delusional if you think Musk actually engineered that system at all.
VaBlue said
I'll agree that the person is a complete asshole; but the engineer is fucking brilliant. Like it or don't, he built Paypal, Tesla, and SpaceX from scratch.
Someone needs a history lesson. Musk was never the engineer or CTO of these companies.
Max Levchin is the engineer founder of PayPal.
Musk tried to take control of it after the merger of his x.com with Peter Thiel’s confinity, but lost out in a power battle Thiel is another total asshole.
Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning, two engineers and entrepreneurs, co-founded Tesla Motors in 2003 with the goal of producing high-performance electric sports cars. JB Straubel, a battery technology expert, joined the company as its Chief Technical Officer. Musk was an early investor who later appointed himself CEO in 2008 and forced the others out. To be fair, he did turn it around as CEO.
Musk was definitely the visionary and founder of SpaceX. But he recruited Tom Mueller as the founding engineer. Musk’s primary innovation in starting the company was the disruptive business model he discovered during early discussions with Russia.
Musk can be credited as an early investor, a business model visionary, and a hard driving CEO. He is also known to force out other leaders out and take credit for their work.
Musk has a bunch of patents. Having spent a long career as a patent lawyer, I would suggest that it is because he has significant technical expertise. Some are in patent families but the guy is definitely no slouch when it comes to technology. Hyperlinks are in the article.
https://insights.greyb.com/elon-musk-patents/
USD724031S1Vehicle charge inlet
US8579635B2Funnel-shaped charge inlet
USD683268S1Vehicle
USD678154S1Vehicle door
US6185194B1System and method for initiating a telephone call utilizing internet initiation
US6148260AInteractive network directory service with integrated maps and directions
US6108650AMethod and apparatus for an accelerated radius search
US5944769AInteractive network directory service with integrated maps and directions
US20200257317A1Autonomous and user-controlled vehicle summons to a target
US20020018236A1Bi-directional facsimile mechanism using the internet
EP1105695A1Method and apparatus for an accelerated radius search
WO2020167613A1Autonomous and user controlled vehicle summons to a target
WO2000011435A1Method and apparatus for an accelerated radius search
KR2021121161AAutonomous and user-controlled vehicle calls to cross-reference targets for related applications
AU2020221897A1Autonomous and user controlled vehicles summon to a target
CA3129725A1Autonomous and user controlled vehicles summon to a target
As you will see, there are a number of names on these patents. For instance, the first one has 4 individuals and is owned by Tesla.
Speaking from experience, it is not uncommon for engineers to put the name of their boss on patent applications and I've seen many a manager suggest strongly that this be done. Maybe he had significant technical input, maybe he didn't.
Regardless, these are not related to propulsion systems or space technology.
April 15th, 2023 at 10:15 PM ^
Speaking from experience, patents are not like technical literature. If your companiy’s IP attorney is listing everybody good luck if a patent is ever challenged. An inventor better be someone who had something substantive to do with the inventive process.
I know a founder who hired two engineers to write a patent and he put his name on it. I doubt he had anything to do with the patent. Not ok in my book.
So we can’t really know if Musk made any contributions.
April 15th, 2023 at 10:19 PM ^
You are approaching the topic of patents like an academician which is a mistake. Inventorship should be treated very different than being a bottle washer and having your name on a publication.
https://www.mintz.com/insights-center/viewpoints/2231/2017-03-30-five-things-academic-scientists-should-know-when
April 15th, 2023 at 10:44 PM ^
Thanks for the reference.
I am not approaching it as an academic. I am not an academic. Maize and I are just telling you what seems to happen in practice, while you are approaching it from a strict legal perspective.
Frankly, from my experience in academia many years ago, academia has more standards (within the university) with respect to academic publishing credit compared to patent authorship (led by a for profit business and their attorneys). Also, peer reviews by professors at a respected journal, to determine if a paper and innovation is novel, are certainly more thorough and consistent than a single government paid overworked patent examiner who will almost always issue an office action which can easily be refuted by a good firm.
Sticking with Musk, it would appear that there could be considerable grey area as to what might qualify as a significant contribution.
It also seems that if Musk were to be on a patent without making a significant contribution, there would not be a risk reward for any interested party to bring forth a claim. It would appear tough to prove with little upside.
Who would bring a suit and why?
And what if Musk forced out the real inventors? Any claim by them wouldn’t make sense either. If that’s the case then the law doesn’t really have any way to be enforced. I am asking as you are the expert.
An example. When you have a case of patent infringement, a good defense is if you can render invalid the patent that is being infringed There are many ways to do that and attacking inventor fraud is one way. I've done work for a few different universities in the past and it is necessary to explain that the 19 people who wrote the paper published in JAMA are likely not. all going to be inventors when the patent is filed.
We have different experiences
Possibly but unless you practice IP law, I'm the only one of the two of us who has actually had to litigate these issues and know about the pitfalls of improper inventorship.. Inventorship problems crop up periodically and can be very troublesome to the assignee of a patent. There are many articles on this topic if you use your search engine,
You are a patent litigator? Most patent attorneys do filings. So as a litigator, have you invalidated a patent because it had an inventor that was not a contributor? It just seems unlikely that a suit on that basis alone could be successful if any party dare take it on. And if the answer was yes, was the party you represented a competing company or one of the other inventors?
Where was hate expressed in anything I wrote? How does "the vision of Elon Musk that people who worship him extol is false" equate to "I hate Elon Musk"? You Musk fanboys are truly delusional people.
Exactly, the term "fanboy" is whats at the heart of this. If you even doubt or question something small or even irrelevant they freak out and go into defend Elon mode. It's freaky and creepy but I mean look at who their other "leader" is and how blinded they are by his propaganda. I am shocked by the ease in which such a large segment of our population is so easily manipulated and then convinced that its everyone else whose being manipulated by those doing the manipulating.
You're equating me with a whack job Trump follower? Dude, no fucking way... That entire fascist and autocratic ideology is not something anyone needs to partake in. You need to hit the brakes on your whole definition of 'fanboy' if that's what you think...
What propaganda am I blinded by? I recognize SpaceX for what it is - the most successful private space launch company ever made. And it's vision was all Elon Musk, whatever you might think of him. Of course he relies on other top notch engineers to do the actual design work - JFC nobody can do everything by themselves! The best known designers, architects, engineers, all have a good staff working for them that do the majority of the work in any industry. But the design vision and direction, and the overall progress, is driven by the guy at the top - the 'architect' of note; the 'Chief Engineer'.
Fuck Musk and fuck this thread.... Respectfully.
Well, it's good to know you aren't one of them but let's face it, they go hand in hand. Most Musk fanboi's are Trump fanboi's as well.
Another interesting thing about Musk is that he's had TEN children with 4 women including a set of twins and another child within months of each other from different women. If he was an NBA player, I wonder how much love he'd be getting.....but NOTHING, CRICKETS from the Muskovites.
Reminder: we are not here for politics. I don’t want to know your opinion on anybody’s politics.
LOL, I never though Musk as Ironman.
"Elon Musk makes you feel
He's a cool exec with a heart o' steel".
Theme song opening to the old Ironman TV cartoons in the 60s. It kind of fits.
He's a bit more like Obadiah Stane
April 15th, 2023 at 12:43 PM ^
Very true VaBlue. To do what Musk has accomplished with Tesla and SpaceX is because not only does he understand complex technologies but has made decisions that have caused two companies to be the leader in their fields. Putting his politics aside, the man is a freaking genius and a visionary and does have a technical degree.
I'm sorry, but when it comes to building new rockets it actually does take a rocket scientist.
What it takes is some serious management capable of melding thousands of technical people who have expertise in a very small portion of a very large project. There is considerable engineering talent and lots of people with MBA's. It requires someone with an ability to understand the technical as well as the management side, someone capable of making decisions when there are options, and see the big picture to make it work on a global level. That level of talent is not possessed by too many folks.
While I feel that Musk of late has gone to a place that doesn't help his companies, to achieve what he has done TWICE is an accomplishment that few people have achieved, particularly with Tesla.
You can cling to the fantasy that everyone is simply doing the details of his grand design, but that isn't reality.
Musk is a COMPANY manager with some technical background and he is also gifted at marketing. Saying that in no way takes away from what he has achieved.
However, managing a company is not the same thing as managing and providing technical leadership of a project of this magnitude. That requires an overarching technical expert and a very senior aerospace systems engineer.
Musk is neither. He simply does not have the technical expertise or the systems engineering expertise required to do that. It is demeaning to those doing it to suggest that everyone has some narrow role to simply implement the details of Musk's grand technical design.
This is BS on epic scale and frankly a myth that Musk likes to perpetuate himself.
Trying to reason with these people is like:
You may as well start a good COVID post.
It's an open secret that he doesn't actually do anything engineering related at SpaceX or Tesla. He basically does marketing/PR and recruiting and capital allocation and, to his credit, he does those things very well. But engineering or literal rocket science? No, he doesn't do anything close to that.
April 16th, 2023 at 12:24 PM ^
LOL yeah Elon Musk is a real loser.
-College football message board geniuses
You do realize that many of Michigan's alumni are renowned experts in their field and many of those in aerospace right? Some of them even watch football games and log into message boards.
Fantastic analogy.
Yep, everyone here that speaks against your god Elon, thinks they are better than him, smarter than him and hell, I'm pretty sure I'm richer than him.
Yes sir, great analogy.
You need to have a graduate degree to be an engineer?
Lol @ "He's not an engineer because he doesn't have engineering degree"
Yeah, I think they called the janitor at our school a Custodial Engineer.
April 15th, 2023 at 11:29 AM ^
He literally bought the title of founder of Tesla. Furthermore, mars colonization is a pipedream. Dude just fucked up Twitter, how's he gonna run a space colony?
April 15th, 2023 at 12:20 PM ^
Lol I love the hate he gets from people faaarrrrrrrrrr less successful as he has been 🤣🤣🤣
I have enjoyed reading the number of people here who uncritically believe everything Elon Musk has ever had written about him but sure, it's because we're all haters. Maybe if you keep talking about him he'll give you a shout-out on Twitter, the totally financially successful company he bought for $44B and definitely isn't losing money hand over fist.
April 15th, 2023 at 12:05 PM ^
People saw the first sentence. Doesn’t mean anyone has to care about the first sentence.
LOLOLOLOL. "What was that first sentence in the OP???" Oh, no! The peons didn't follow your rules and now you're going to throw a fit? You really ARE a Musk fanboy.
Who's throwing a fit, Spongebob (all the lololol...)? The man is an asshole, but he's built arguably the most successful space company ever built. Apparently, there are a lot of people that don't understand that.
He’s not a fucking brilliant engineer. He’s never engineered a breakthrough in his life. He’s a brilliant marketer with a lot of money and willing to push.
Of course the fact that he’s a piece of shit matters. It doesn’t make this launch less exciting but it still matters. Especially when people are dying to give him credit for things he doesn’t deserve.
Agree on SpaceX 100%, you can't argue with company results.
Not touching politics here, so my comments regarding Musk are purely business/engineering and Elon is much more a product of right place, right time, right conditions than any particular genius he may possess. Yes, he played the game well, but current Twitter boss Elon in charge of his earlier companies and the decision framework he operates under now would have buried those companies at the time. He isn't at all the same person he was back then, and your categorization of him as an asshole is spot on, but in the early days he was just an asshole, self-aggrandizing, narcissist........now he is all that, but being worth billions for a long time and being surrounded by sycophants has given him an "I'm never wrong, I can do whatever I want" attitude that, as evidenced by Twitter's ~$20B loss in value, is anything but business prowess. In fact, quite the opposite. Regardless of where you see him politically, he has become an idealogue, and an openly hypocritical one at that.
Your comments indicating he built anything from scratch are pretty misinformed. PayPal was x.com that merged with Confinity, Tesla he was an early investor and wasn't a Boss until 2008. He had a lot of $$ and a huge amount of cache when Tesla went ballistic and he very shrewdly used that darling status to do a lot of other things.
I work here in Silicon Valley/San Francisco almost exclusively in early stage ventures in an exec or advisory capacity and am well connected to VC and tech/engineering people around here and right now most people I know wouldn't work with/take money from him unless it was absolutely necessary to the survival of the company, because in his current form he is mostly seen as a management wrecking ball and a huge PR liability.
So you know no founder bats 100%.
He's not a brilliant engineer, though.
He didn't "build" PayPal - he built a company called X.com that was in competition with Peter Thie's (another totally normal and child guy) Confinity that had a product called PayPal (initially designed to allow payments between Palm Pilot owners). Neither really distinguished themselves so the two companies merged before they'd run out of money and PayPal emerged and Musk (briefly) was CEO of that company before being fired (after himself firing/deposing all of his other X.com co-founders some years earlier). He got rich off the company years later when eBay bought PayPal and Musk's stock in the company paid out. As for him as a software developer, from what I've gathered he's a self-taught one and a lot of his coding (such as his first big company Zip2) wasn't particularly efficient - famously most of the Zip2 code was re-written from the ground up by Compaq engineers who realized it was remarkable inefficient C code.
Tesla was a company he invested in and only rose to CEO status in 2008, again after deposing the cofounders. Tesla mostly lost money under him until very recently, relying heavily on government subsidies to even stay afloat at times. Tesla has done better recently in terms of overall sales but they've had a number of recalls (we can quibble a bit about whether or not an OTA software update is a true "recall" [Musk certainly has] but when it involves things like "the brakes won't work properly" or "self-driving features cause accidents" it's certainly something) and their EV marketshare has been trending down as more competitors enter the space. I'll stay away from quality and new product rollout concerns, but they're out there as well. But sure, he took over a company and it's doing okay. He didn't build it (or the cars) but did market the hell out of them.
SpaceX was a company he did "start from scratch", though I'd point out that it has relied extensively on federal funding (famously SpaceX nearly went out of business before NASA gave him a $1.6B deal to fly supplies to the ISS) and access to NASA knowledge and information sharing, so that absolutely helped in it maturing. But he did invest about $100M of his own money (from the aforementioned eBay-PayPal deal) and deserves credit for it. But I'm not sure how much more "modern, forward-thinking, cost effective, and technically advanced" they are since they are closely tied to NASA. Maybe they're more advanced than Boeing, but I'm honestly not sure. And there's little actual evidence Musk knows a ton about how to build a rocket or the intricacies of space travel - he's a rich guy who hires smart people, which is obviously better than being a rich guy who hires dumb people but isn't proof of his engineering or technical knowledge.
So no, he's not some Tony Stark-type who actually knows the technology well and builds all of his products. The fact Twitter is pushing out unstable, unusable new features since he arrived (as he prominently states how involved he is in their development) should further lay to rest his purported genius, since "software development" is the only area of engineering you could colorably argue he has experience with.