OT: Hollywood's franchise approach may be dying
I'm a big movie buff and a recent article outlining Spielberg's prediction from a few years ago that Hollywood's over-reliance on franchises would result in a future box-office implosion seems to be trending true. There isn't overwhelming data, but some early cracks in the franchise foundation are peeking.
MI: Dead Reckoning hauled in only ~$50M opening despite a $290M budget BEFORE marketing.
Compare this to Oppenheimer (obviously not a franchise) which is projected to be a $50M open on a $100M budget.
Other franchise releases:
Fast X did $129M domestically compared to $175M for the previous installment, F9.
The last two Marvel installments...
Ant Man & The Wasp: Quantumania underperformed at ~$470M in its theatrical run, and is one of the few Marvel films that didn't break $500M. It also failed to build on momentum from it's first two installments, which were $519M and $620M, respectively.
Guardians Vol.3 was an exception - performed well bringing in $843M on a $250M budget. Guardians is also a more popular franchise and was the eagerly anticipated reinstatement of James Gunn to his director role.
I'm not sure where y'all are at with movies these days but I've been fiending for a compelling and original story. While I mostly like the MCU I'll admit the Disney+ releases and changing of the guard from Endgame have diluted the series quality for me. Endgame felt like the last truly mind-blowing franchise experience for me, I've been mostly disappointed since, with a few exceptions (e.g. Top Gun: Maverick was good).
I just want to see fresh talent not in their 40s and new IP that isn't spinoff.
Until Hollywood decides to take more risks on projects that might actually be interesting, I highly recommend the Extraction series on Netflix.
Is it franchises, or going to movie theaters in general, that's dying? I'm trying to think of the last movie I saw in a theater; I think it was Rogue One in 2016. And it's not like I was going to a ton of movies before that either. I think I saw seven movies total in theaters in the 2010s (On Stranger Tides, Dark Knight Rises, Jurassic World, The Force Awakens, Jason Bourne, Allied, Rogue One), which really means seven total in nearly the last 15 years. And that was before the pandemic.
Honestly, I think with the advance of streaming options (accelerated by the pandemic, where movie theaters were no longer part of the routine), theaters are dying a slow death, and with them the bulk of movie revenue...
Fair point but I am enjoying this golden age of theater where I can basically get an alcohol IV drip and a funnel of trashy food poured into my fleshy body by a high school employee in a purple vest, while being warmed on a vinyl slab like I'm a gas-station burrito.
I'd expect what you're describing to be a big winner in the USA. Is it? If it's not, the prices must be a little too high. That was my issue the only time I tried it.
Honestly, I can do the same thing at home for a fraction of the price with the added bonus of being in my skivvies and not needing to drive anywhere after having a drink.
Yeah but then ya gotta deal with the ol ball and chain /s
Nah, my sis is pretty cool and likes the same stuff I do.
username checks out
movies are a family affair in your neck of the woods huh?!
I have to borrow what you said! Hilarious!
Rogue One is also the last movie I saw in theaters, and I'm fairly confident the only one I have been to in the last decade. Even at home I'm usually watching a show, 40-60 minute time blocks are just easier to commit to with the wife, and the long format story telling tends to interest me more.
Rogue One was the last one I went to as well. What is it about that movie that made it so many peoples last trip to the theatres?
Everyone died. Well, "that's a wrap, folks".
The fact that it's a Star Wars movie puts butts in the seats; and it was a pretty good one to boot.
This is a pretty good summary. It was a great movie. The Force Awakens was so bad I didn't see The Last Jedi in theaters, but rather waited for it to be released on DVD to rent it from the library (pretty crazy for me given that I had seen every previous mainline Star Wars movie in theaters, starting with the Special Edition rereleases in 1997 when I became obsessed with Star Wars, including seeing two of the prequels at midnight opening night), and The Last Jedi was so bad I still haven't seen Rise of Skywalker (I think that's what it's called--it's bad that I'm not even sure of the title).
I am always astounded by smart and very well paid people NEVER being able to understand that times and tastes change, that nothing lasts forever. Marvel and Star Wars are for old farts now. My teenage kids think marvel, new Star Wars and pretty especially DC movies SUCK. They don’t even give them a “it’s mid” ranking.
I am happy these films are bombing during the writers strike. The Flash, which could be the worst movie ever made, may make these studios readdress their business model
I have to agree, if you didnt grow up flipping through comic books, superheroes are odd. A bunch of adults running around in Underoos on the big screen is kind of silly....unless you ran around playing superhero in your Underoos as a kid.
Ant man made $500M we are still fucked for several years.
Worst mover ever made? Have you seen "Local Hero"? I cant believe they had the balls to send this to theaters.
great classic
It was worth being there in person just for the scene in the corridor when Darth Vader lights up his saber in the dark and proceeds to go full beserker on the whole damn place. People in the theater went absolutely apeshit. It was glorious.
For me, that might be the best scene in the whole franchise. Certainly top three. I remember remarking, "Here we go, Vader is finally going to kick ass!!"
And Rogue One is the second-best Star Wars film, surpassed only by Empire.
If I told you you had to erase all memory of Star wars or Rogue one which would it be? Not even stories shared from friends. The opening of Empire would be the first moments of the franchise. Rogue one is a very well made film absolutely but Star Wars was made when there wasnt anything in its stratosphere. Watch any sci fi from the previous 10 years and they are mostly a mess. Star Wars jumped out on that ledge and made something special. Rogue One got to stand its very tall shoulders and knocked it out of the park.
The last movie I saw in a theater was a Godzilla movie that starred Walter White. With three kids, I am constantly on the go. One of my great joys in life is to sit in my bed after a long day and watch something on Max or Netflix. Currently watching Banshee which is pretty damn entertaining. I have zero interest to head to the theatre to see anything.
100% this. My wife and I don't care to see movies in the movie theater, and nor will my Gen Z and Gen Alpha kids. With covid, I imagine there are more families like mine that prefer the ease of watching shows on our big TVs at home, with our great sound system and much cheaper snacks.
Drive-in movie theaters used to be a thing, and now sit-in movie theaters are less a thing. Price gouging started preventing the younger generations from affording these weekend nights out. Look at how they are disappointed that Indy 5 "has only made 300 million." So now a movie theater movie isn't successful unless it grosses over a billion? Yet the Federal minimum wage is still 7.25 and we wonder why kids and under 40s chose streaming.
It'd be great if these execs would stop pulling TV shows and movies from streaming services just because the first few weeks returns or the live #s were "low." How are they not making money on the streaming later?
We are not a culture that is into immediately needing to watch the newest movie the first weekend or needing to watch the live episode of our favorite TV shows. We just aren't that culture anymore. TGIF is dead, no matter how much they immediately post spoilers all over the internet as soon as an episode errors.
Some upcoming "why is this being made?" 2023 titles:
- a standalone action/thriller w Denzel (why?)
- Legally Blonde 3 (why?)
- Indiana Jones and the I forgot I didn't care -but no Spielberg (why?)
- another Scorsese film starring Leonardo DiCaprio (it could be good but also why not cast some new talent?)
- DC installments:
1. The Blue Beetle (basically Spiderman + Ironman + shit) there's literally a scene where "self-defense mode" is activated and his suit cuts a bus in half and the kid sheepishly says "hehe shucks folks, my suit has a mind of its own."
2. Aquaman but no Amber Heard - I guess that's an improvment
It seems pretty clear Hollywood is running out of good ideas. Sequels 15 (Indiana Jones) and 20 years (Legally Blonde) after the previous installments, neither of which were particularly good themselves. An Indiana Jones sequel with an 81(!) year old Harrison Ford. Rebooting movies after only 5-10 years. Disney deciding to remake all their animated hits as live action. Etc.
There's very little original creativity left. It's mostly just going back to the well of what worked (or sometimes just going back to the well of what didn't even really work) for lack of anything better...
It's scared behavior. You can't take a swing and miss - so retreads and franchises which already have built in audiences and nostalgia to pull on put a high floor on your risk. It reeks of middle-management style risk assessment, rather than creativity, art and bold decision making that makes great movies great. And with moviegoers dwindling for reason beyond the product itself, we're not likely to see that change.
Too much consolidation so now you have basically 5 guys deciding what gets made and those guys are sitting in lush 50M a year jobs unless they totally fuck up.
It's also the total financialization of Hollywood. The studios were always out to make a killing but now the big studio leadership has taken on the mentality of private equity investors. Private equity investors do not, by definition, give two flying fucks about the quality of the product they're investing in, the consumer experience, or anything else other than maximizing the amount of rent that they can squeeze out of whatever it is.
Solidarity with the writers and now actors who are on strike to try to weaken the power, if even just a little, of the bosses who are killing Hollywood in service of maximizing their short-term financial gains.
You are right --- consider Warner Brothers. One of the ICONIC movie studio brands in the World.
Who bought them from AT&T in 2021? Who is their current CEO? Discovery and David Zaslav, folks who are "experts" at producing low-rent, low-quality but we-are-still-able-to-squeeze-a-profit-out-of-this junk TV.
Turner Classic Movies is owned by the WB Discovery brand. Cable may be dying, but that's still a high-quality network that is truly beloved by those who love movies. It has intangible value beyond whatever it's financial spreadsheet ROI is (I'd give 100000:1 odds that the ROI is > $1.00).
But the likes of Zaslav don't give a fuck --- he already eliminated the UK version of the channel and last month gutted the management and staff of the US version. To wring out a few more $$$.
I guess I'm partially guilty myself given I'm in a Financial/Marketing Analytics role --- but the monetizing and analyzing of everything is often the enemy of quality.
"but the monetizing and analyzing of everything is often the enemy of quality." Absolutely agree. Just like your observation from an insider's point of view: I'm a pharmacist. Don't ask me what I think about prescription medications.
Really really hoping username does NOT check out.
Discovery . . . who are "experts" at producing low-rent, low-quality but we-are-still-able-to-squeeze-a-profit-out-of-this junk TV.
You really hit the nail on the head there. My wife and I don't watch much TV in general; streaming Food Network is one of the few things we do watch with any consistency. Since when you're streaming (as opposed to watching live TV) you get the same five commercials over and over, we see a TON of commercials for Discovery+. And I can only wonder who would pay for that shit? Outside of things like Food Network (which we already have access to), it looks like it's full of complete garbage, shows that sound so stupid you'd never believe they actually existed. It's like the Onion in video form...
Discovery --- they brought the world "MILF Manor."
For those not aware of the show's "plot": Eight single women between the ages of 40 and 60 live in a Mexican villa to pursue romantic relationships with eight single men a few decades younger. The catch: the 8 men are the women's sons.
I'd say that's a new all-time low, except that there's likely some show taping now that will go even lower.
Kathleen Kennedy isn't a guy, and even though she's been totally fucking up for Disney/Star Wars, seems to have total immunity to continue doing so.
It’s because she’s doing exactly what the execs want her to do. Outside of Andor, everything Disney has produced in the last few years is just focus group dross that is only created to make money.
And she's the link to lucas
And she's getting paid
Not even Mel Tucker would survive a run of seasons like hers.
It's very simple. When you tell people what they should want in a movie rather than letting people tell you (with box office success) what they want in a movie, you fail.
Hollywood is trying to set the trends now. And all they have is franchises where the story has already been told. Hence Indiana Jones: I Guess this is Better than a Rest Home, but I can't Remember Why.
The last two movies I saw in theaters were the latest Indiana Jones (which I liked, but won’t be mistaken for the original trilogy) and No Time to Die (which I hated). So those are both franchise movies. I may go see Oppenheimer at some point.
For me, with Disney+ and Max out there, you can see movies not long after they came out for $20 within the comforts of home. That’s a good deal.
Save $$, moviestowatch.tv. Free. Watched a few movies this year before they hit the screen.
3DOnlinefilms.com. Donate a buck in 3D n 2D. I'm using a 3D Oled 65" curve. IMAX with NASA, James Cameron with Underwater Docu's,Avatar, Marvel's Dr. Strange was awesome. Looking for a brighter movie future. David Attenborough's nature movies. I shoot my own 3D movies, project them onto a screen. Kids love watching them at play. With a 3D Blu-ray I play movies for groups, weddings, etc. Just get me by until toe hits leather.
Man, that's the complete opposite of my feelings for both of those movies. I started to tear up at the end of No Time to Die. Not as good as Casino Royale but damn it was good.
For me, going to a movie theater to see a movie just hits different than staying home and watching it on my TV. There is something about the huge screen and the big sound in a dark room that sucks me into whatever I'm watching. That's not to say anything about the big comfy chair and delicious popcorn I get at AMC when I go. Those are just bonuses.
Not sure I understand the knock on older actors? I’m not sure how you wouldn’t want to see a new thrillers with Denzel along with a Leo and Scorsese film again? Might be biased as those are two of my favorite actors but still are generational actors. I’m not sure how a stand alone new scripts can rise an unknown actor if they’re put together with the lack of audience today. Seems like a lot of marketing and word of mouth would need to drum up business if your two ideas would be meshed together. But those other movies def sound gross.
I don't have any fundamental issue with Zel or DiCaprio - they're iconic leading men.
My issue is that they aren't seemingly replenishing the cast of leading men (e.g. Cillian Murphy, Tom Hardy, Brad Pitt, Paul Rudd, Matt Damon, etc etc) that are so charismatic they jump off the screen - the only exception to this might be Timothee Chalamet - he's undeniably a star who will only get bigger.
All we get is fucking Harry Styles - a douchebag nepo baby who thinks he's the first guy to wear a dress and paint his nails. *shakes fist* Rodman did it in the 90s bro!
Zel?
Wow, you guys must be super tight. Tell him MGoBlog says hi next time you’re hanging out.
No you just have never interacted with black people - it's very common to call him that.
Oh, ok 👌🏿🤣
I went to the Indiana Jones movie. The wife and I went to a drive-in theater to truly recreate the "nostalgic experience". Like the original experience, I don't have a clue what happened on the screen but we both went home very happy.
The trailers have me thinking "Indiana Jones the animated adventure!" please tell me Im wrong. CGI is my "get off my damn lawn". I remember watching The Mist and seeing those horribly rendered octopus arms under the garage door. Ive been ruined ever since.
For me, I primarily need a good story with a competent and compelling ending, you just don't get much of that anymore.
In the 2010's I also probably went to the movies less than 10 times. Usually the Marvel or Star Wars movies.
Hollywood has gotten lazy, relying too much on technology, reboots and sequels, boring!!!!
I miss movies like Shawshank, Pulp Fiction, Nell, Forest Gump, Salton Sea, etc.
I want to see good writing and acting, not just special effects.
Besides,with wonderful flat screens, streaming and sitting in my couch recliner while not paying all that money for tickets and refreshments, popcorn, it's really an easy decision.
Also, Hollywood needs to quit trying to change classics and create some new ones, that would be a novel idea.
In the 2010's I also probably went to the movies less than 10 times. Usually the Marvel or Star Wars movies.
I found this to be a hilarious contrast to the rest of the post. Your buying preferences are indicative of broader trends that steered the industry toward all the things you’re complaining about.
It’s something I see from the OP and most of the posts in this thread: “I keep paying money to see these shitty franchise movies and I don’t understand why they keep making shitty franchise movies.”