OT: Florida loses to LSU (and first-time starter QB)

Submitted by WichitanWolverine on December 12th, 2020 at 11:00 PM

LSU's Max Johnson is now 1-0 with a win over #6 Florida in Gainesville. Quite a performance from the young man. Trask threw for 474 yards but still came up short. 

Really good game that came down to the wire. 

Avon Barksdale

December 12th, 2020 at 11:39 PM ^

If Ohio State was in the SEC East, he would have the same number of championship game appearances, conference championships, and national championships as Jim Harbaugh. 
 

Instead, Mullen gets to beat the likes of Tennessee, Kentucky, and a Georgia team on their 3rd or 4th QB to get to a title game. After next week, he’ll be 8-3 just like Harbaugh is every year. 

gm1234

December 13th, 2020 at 8:26 AM ^

And? I don’t see it as a completely different situation. UGA had been recruiting at a very high level, so it’s not like they’re a cakewalk, this year they’re still ranked in the top 10. And do you think we’d beat UK or UT? I don’t. Plus I don’t think Mullen is getting paid like $8M per year? 
 

I don’t mind Harbaugh, not saying we should move on, but I would expect when you’re paying elite money for a coach that they produce a better product on the field than what we’ve been seeing. He needs to really shake up the staff and get back to the guy that UM hired.

jdraman

December 12th, 2020 at 11:17 PM ^

This all but guarantees the four playoff teams to be Alabama, ND, Clemson, and OSU. 

The only interesting scenario is if ND beats Clemson again in the ACC championship game and then Texas A&M sneaks in. 

bronxblue

December 13th, 2020 at 9:13 AM ^

I don't know if Clemson can smoke ND this year (ND is pretty good and Clemson isn't great), but I do see a world where Clemson wins by 10 or 14 and the committee stares at A&M's shiny (checks math) 2-1 record against teams with a winning record and falls head over heels with having 2 SEC teams in for some dumb reason.  By comparison, ND would be 4-1 even with a Clemson loss.

DoubleB

December 13th, 2020 at 12:28 AM ^

Florida has the offense to hang with Bama, despite tonight's shitshow. The defense though? Worse Florida defense maybe this century and just some outright idiotic calls by Grantham--corner blitzes through slot WRs?

Florida will play better next week, but how are they holding Bama under 45?

Jordan2323

December 12th, 2020 at 11:18 PM ^

The shoe throw was moronic but the timeout Mullen called when they tackled LSU in the field of play with about 22 seconds left and they would've been scrambling to get their fg unit on the field and get the kick off was even more moronic. 

jdraman

December 12th, 2020 at 11:26 PM ^

I don’t know. I still disagree. LSU’s kicker is money, one of the best in CFB. Sure perhaps you subtract the timing factor, but there’s added pressure after a timeout (icing the kicker). I still think it was the correct decision to take the timeout. The 25+ seconds of insurance time gives you a chance if they make it. But I see where you’re coming from.  

Wolverine 73

December 12th, 2020 at 11:34 PM ^

These are the games that drive me nuts.  Florida was a 23 point favorite, but LSU won.  When has Michigan ever beaten someone when we are a huge underdog?  Or even a 14 point underdog?  I cannot remember even one instance of it happening in the last 50 years.  You would think it would happen by accident from time to time.

Newton Gimmick

December 13th, 2020 at 11:40 AM ^

I'll add the 2007-08 Citrus Bowl vs Florida (with Urban Meyer and Tebow) as a notable upset win.  In Carr's last game Michigan won (dominated, really, if not for turnovers) as 10.5 point underdogs.  

But yes, that's the only time since '96 they've won as double digit underdogs (1-10 straight up).

For comparison, Harbaugh has lost four such games: -24 to Iowa in 2016, -12 to S Carolina in the 2018 Outback Bowl, -12.5 to MSU in 2017 and -21.5 to MSU in 2020.  He's 38-4 in those games, so it *is* a similar percentage of upsets (~10%), but Michigan's average spread as favorites is also likely to be significantly higher.  Harbaugh is 24-4 as a 10-24 point favorite.

Moving the bar down to 7 points: Michigan has lost 17 straight as 7+ point underdogs, dating to that Citrus Bowl.  They are 5-12 ATS in those games.

Dating back to '98, Michigan is 1-20 as TD or more underdogs, dating to a 12-9 in Iowa City at +9.  The '95 OSU win was also +9.

Harbaugh is winless as an underdog at Michigan (0-11), and Michigan has lost 18 straight as any kind of underdog, dating back to the 2013 Northwestern (Dileo slide FG) game at +2.5.  Others: +1 at Illinois in 2011 and +3.5 vs ND (UTL) in 2011, +3.5 at ND in 2010.

Side note: UM is 2-10-1 ATS against Wisconsin since 2000

Oh and OSU is 7-1 *straight up* in their last 8 games as an underdog.  Meyer was 6-0, including of course his last Big 10 game.

 

Perkis-Size Me

December 13th, 2020 at 7:21 AM ^

Yup. Even Cajun Brady Hoke wins games he’s not supposed to. He earned that title back this year after it was clear he just caught lightning in a bottle last year.

When was the last time Michigan football won anywherewith any coach, as an underdog? Florida ‘08? Wisconsin ‘08? That all plays into the persona Michigan has of being a highly predictable program. 

WolverineHistorian

December 13th, 2020 at 10:56 AM ^

The upsets mostly come from the Carr years....

2008 Capital One Bowl 

2006 Notre Dame 

2005 MSU (First time in 37 years that Sparty was favored to win). 

2000 Orange Bowl

1999 Penn State

1998 Penn State

1997 Penn State

1996 Ohio State

1996 Colorado 

RichRod's best wins were over 8-5 Notre Dame, 7-6 Minnesota and 7-6 Illinois (which went into triple overtime.)  I assume we were underdogs in that 2009 ND game and possibly 2008 Minnesota where Nick Sheridan was competent.  

Hoke's best wins were over 9-4 Notre Dame, 8-5 Notre Dame, 10-3 Northwestern (overtime) I guess you could throw in the Sugar Bowl over VaTech but we looked bad all night (just 180 total yards) and somehow came away with an OT win.  Were we underdogs for UTL part 1?  

Other than that, Hoke never beat a Big Ten team that had anything better than a 7-6 record. 

It's hard to include the Hoke and RichRod years in terms of upsets because the program was in such horrible shape.  With Harbaugh, the program looked much better outside the OSU game but still couldn't pull off an upset.