OT - Detroit Tigers Trade Deadline Strategy
TLDR: Sounds like they are standing pat
The Tigers have surprised this season with a roster made up mostly of misfits, castoffs and youngsters. Hinch appears to have been a great hire and they have made what appears to be a few wise selections in the recent drafts.
However, it is perplexing to me that GM Al Avila has publicly stated that they are no longer in the "rebuilding" phase and have entered the "building" phase and not be more active in preparing for 2-3 years down the road. To my amateurish eye - it seems to me they still have a long ways to go to contend and accumulating more prospects by capitalizing on moving pieces that are having nice years won't be around when they are ready to contend would be the wise move.
https://www.mlb.com/news/al-avila-says-detroit-tigers-no-longer-rebuilding
Why would you not try to acquire more young assets for players that hold some value in the market like:
- Jonathan Schoop (29 years old, won't have a position in 2-3 yrs)
- Jeimer Candelario (27 years old, if Torkelson stays at 3rd - won't have a position in 1-2 yrs)
- Eric Haase (28 years old, nice local story and having a breakout year - but not likely to last, contenders are always in the market for a power hitting backup catcher)
- Michael Fulmer (if he can stay healthy long enough to move)
- Wily Peralta (32 years old, has been lights out - move him while he has some value)
- Jose' Cisnero (32 years old - solid backend relievers always have value)
Former Michigan pitching coach Chris Fetter has done admirable work this year - bringing the young guys along and making chicken salad out of chicken crap with the experienced ones.
I would definitely be open to trading Cisnero and Peralta if there's interest, but I think re-signing Schoop would be the right move.
He'll be 30 years old in October and a free agent at season's end, a two or three-year deal makes sense to me.
Schoop is a FA, so you can trade him for a prospect and then just sign him again if that's what you want to do.
The market for less than 1/2 season rentals has pretty much dried up. Teams will not give up useful prospects for a guy they will only have from Aug-Oct. It doesn't happen anymore. If Schoop is traded the return will be horrible.
Right now it's about getting a winning attitude and atmosphere. Standing pat right now is the right move. Unless an offer comes that you can't say no to. Which most likely won't happen.
I don't care if the return is bad, a lottery ticket is better than nothing for a player who likely will not be here next season (unless he wants to be).
fishgoblue is spot on. This team needs to be better next year than this year. They need to go into next season believing they can be above .500. Sacrificing that for some team's #19 prospect is not worth it. At some point you need to stop entirely building for 2-3 years down the road and build a little bit for next year. The goal should be to get better year by year and not think that somehow you are going to magically go from 7 years of sub .400 team to a division contender.
You said this team needs to be better next season, and you’re suggesting that we should do that by not trading Jonathan Schoop, who is not under contract next season? Or is the argument that Jonathan Schoop playing meaningless reps for the Tigers this September instead of someone projected to be on the 2022 roster (like Isaac Parades) somehow makes them a better baseball team in 2022?
Resign Schoop or don’t resign Schoop, either plan is fine by me, but neither plan prevents you from getting something in return for him that might help you out down the road.
School is not the only person under discussion in this thread. That’s a pretty weak attempt to win an argument by changing the scope of discussion. Sone of the names in the OP are under team control beyond this season.
Beyond that, Schoop may be the one player I’d be most amenable to trading. I still wouldn’t waste my time on a “lottery ticket” because I think sustaining effort & improvement within even just this season has more value than a player who is 1:100000 to even make it to AAA.
the pirates disagree with your strategy. they have been in rebuilding mode for decades; trading every decent player just before they can get some coin.
They didn't say they are standing pat they just said they aren't shipping guys out for nothing anymore. Basically just sating if you want one of our guys you have to pay full price for them. I would be fine moving any of these guys but Haase and Peralta probably have no value. Hopefully they can make a deal or 2 for some significant prospects
Yeah, this was more my read from his comments. He just doesn't see the Tigers as a farm system for clubs anymore; he expects to get back some real assets from trades. I agree that the Tigers should be competing for the playoffs/division title in 3-4 years, and so trades this year and next should be focused on that and not trying to pick up assets you hope are functional on the back half of the decade.
I think they are going to spend some money this offseason to acquire a SS and a power hitting 1st basemen or corner outfielder. If that happens, they will contend for a playoff spot (WC) next year.
Avila specifically stated the Tigers are in a position to add payroll now. To me that is a HUGE statement there. Are they going to be big spenders like the Yankees/Red Sox/Dodgers? No, but they will be in the FA market this winter and not just looking at the scrap heap pile.
To me, here are the priority to do list for this winter:
1) Re-sign Schoop, having a contract year but signed with Bores, don't need to oversign. Miggy is becoming more and more a DH, Schoop has filled in nicely there, clubhouse chemistry is building here.
1A) Sign a SS, there are like 6 major SS that will be on the FA market this winter. One could argue, this is #1, but I would keep it here for discussion sake. Short has a fine glove, but the bat is a question mark and if they can get the right SS, that would be huge.
2) Sign a veteran starting pitcher. Putting on my Tiger glasses for a second, JV is a FA this winter. The story and role would be perfect and symbolic. The Tigers brought in Kenny Rogers when JV started to mentor / provide stability to that young rotation 15 years ago. Now JV would be fulfilling that role for Mize, Skubal, and Manning
3) Sign a 2B. I'm keeping this low for 2 reasons, A) Schoop plays 2B, but the vision would be that he splits time at 1B as a committee. But is a slick fielding 2B with an acceptable OB% is out there that can be bought. Go for it.
So next years roster would look something like this:
1B - By committee - Schoop, Candy, even Haase, and sometimes Miggy
2B - Schoop mainly with a back up (just not sold on Castro....too many errors in the field)
SS - FA (Seiman, Story, Seager, Crawford) ***I know most these are pipe dreams but....
3B - Torkelson / Candy
OF - Badoo, Hill, Cameron, Greene, Grossman, Haase
C - Rogers / Haase
SP - Verlander (again, this is my wish list)
Mize
Skubal
Manning
Peralta / Boyd
Bullpen
Soto, Cisnero, and Funkhouser are in Fulmer has a spot if he can ever stay healthy
That leaves 2 bullpen spots left...
Is that a World Series contender....no
Is this a playoff contender, I would have to actually say yes IF things fell into the right place (Verlander/Boyd comes back healthy, Torkelson and/Greene has solid to ROY seasons, the 3 kids pitchers continue to grow and mature)
Certainly gives Al enough data to say that the Tigers are no longer a fire sale team....
Good post. I am just glad they are out of fire sale mode, been a long climb since they were yearly contenders. Baseball more than any other sport for me is great when the Tigers are good and horrible when they stink.
I actually think the Pistons, Wings, and Tigers seem to be on an upswing. The Lions are the Lions until proven otherwise.
+1 for you. Don't forget Turnbull.
Turnbull won't be back until 2023. TJ surgery is roughly an 18 month rehab. So using that as the time frame, he won't be ready until spring training 2023.
Yes. Young enough to come back and be a viable option.
i agree with almost everything. but i would have quality SS at #1 by far. and i really don't think schoop would be any kind of priority with me. i'm thankful he was as good as he has been with the tigers. but, as always, it depends on the price.
I hope you're right on spending at SS. I think C and 2B are at least as much of a need as OF. I'd gamble on Badoo, Greene, Hill, Cameron. I'm not gambling on any of the so called 2B prospects.
I think contending for a WC is a bit optimistic. I think this team can be .500 with 1-2 FA signings, but it's going to take another year of prospects developing and/or a couple more signings to be a true play-off contender.
they are several games above .500 since May 1, despite all their injuries. so there should be optimism for contending for a wild card next year.
Because GMs rarely speak candidly and often blow smoke in order to establish more leverage. For example, no NBA GM admits he’s tanking. The Tigers are obviously not contenders and are just looking to package as many assets as possible.
They should sell. Exiting the rebuild at the first real signs of progress is a recipe for disaster.
You realize they are 36-27 now over the past 63 games. And their next 20 games are against the bottom of the league teams. Are they contenders today.....no, but they are closer to being a playoff team than being a "rebuild" team.
Have they taken steps towards competing? Absolutely.
Are the Tigers more enjoyable now than any time in the past 6-7 years. Yes.
Is this roster still one of the worst in the entire American League from a talent standpoint? Without a doubt.
The lineup has been cobbled together with bargain-bin free agents like Schoop and Grossman, Turnbull is having Tommy John surgery and is likely out for the entirety of next season, Boyd and Fulmer haven't shown they can stay healthy for an entire season. Hinch and his staff have worked magic with this roster, but some form of regression to the mean is not only feasible but probably realistic.
Look at the Twins this year to see what happens when you eject from the rebuild too quickly. Keep your head down, continue to stockpile arms so when Mize and Skubal are entering their prime in 3-4 years and maybe Manning figures out how to miss a bat or Jobe becomes the pitcher they drafted him to be, plus another 2-3 years of stockpiling prospects, THEN regularly competing will be sustainable. That's why you should move players like Candelario, Fulmer, Boyd, and Turnbull (oops) now or this offseason while they still have value because they aren't in your window to compete.
In order to be routinely good in baseball, you have to either spend money (Dodgers, Red Sox) or you let your prospect pool get so rich it snowballs and carries you to a World Series (see the Cubs, Astros, Indians, and Rays of recent years).
hahaha!!! the twins won the fucking division last year!!
No. They should not sell. They are closer than most people think.
If the Tigers are as close to competing as you say, tell me who on the 40 man roster belongs on an ALCS-level roster 3 years from now? IMO, Skubal and Mize are the only surefire bets right now. And then in the prospect pool, you have Greene, Torkelson and maybe Dingler and that's it when it comes to position players.
That's just not enough cornerstone pieces to start going for it when you look around the league at teams like the Rays.
A lot of white-hairs in this thread have never looked at any franchise outside of the Tigers and now that the Tigers finally have a decent farm system they think it's the second coming of Big Red Machine when in reality they're middle-of-the-road in most prospect system rankings.
I think the team is so close. They can borderline contend next year with a few pieces in the minors not too far away.
I'd love to see them go after one of the shortstops this off-season. They need a star like Baez. Add some bullpen help and maybe that idea off Verlander ending his career here and you've got something
Great minds think alike (see my long winded post below)
This team is still rebuilding, despite what Avila says. They just aren’t in the tear-down phase anymore.
I'm against breaking up this team to gamble on other people's prospects. Aside from playing every day and being somewhat productive, guys like Grossman and Schoop bring professionalism to a dugout that has a lot of young players.
With the team playing well, I think Avila should be very stingy on what he wants before giving up any of the core players on this year's team. These guys have a winning record since early May and they play hard every game. In order to build a winning team, guys need to learn how to win somewhere along the way. They are doing that now. If you break them up and leave them to lose 70% of their remaining games you are wrecking their confidence.
Logged in to agree with this. If you have a very good offer that helps now and the future, you entertain it. Otherwise, based on the prospects listed above as trade material, ride it out. They are playing very good baseball and the arm talent is there. Those young arms will fade in September, likely, but what a great season if they can go .600 over the next month. There is work to do this off season but the team is fun and playing well as a team. Thank you A.J. Hinch!
These people get it. The Tigers had a rough spring but are .500 since May. And for a rebuilding club... a club built through the farm system, I'll take it.
But shitting on the Tigers has become so fashionable people aren't actually paying attention.
This team needs to buy one of the big 3 shortstops this winter (Seager, Story, Correia). If Greene can make the club in March, the outfield might be set. Shore up the bullpen and add a back-end starter and 85 wins isn’t completely crazy in 2022.
Cisnero is the only guy on that list where I think you're making a mistake if you don't trade him. The others listed are either guys you can keep around for when you're expecting to be good again (Schoop, Candelario, Fulmer) or not big enough assets to matter much in terms of return (Haase, Peralta). I'd try and get what you can for Cisnero and if you're blown away with an offer for Schoop, he's the other one I'd move. Otherwise, keep what you have and keep building. I don't see why this can't be a playoff team/contender next year with a good offseason.
Al Avila basically said, "I don't want to say we're rebuilding, but we're rebuilding". It was some classic coachspeak stuff. I don't understand his discomfort with being forthright about that, but whatever.
1) Tigers won't get much in trade for a 2 1/2-month rental. Keep Schoop for now, everything I've read about the guy is that he's a great teammate/positive force in the clubhouse, and IMO, at this point continuing to establish a winning culture is more important than picking up the equivalent of a 10th round draft pick in trade (because that's about the maximum they might get).
2) Fulmer won't get much (if any) interest right now. Not back from his arm injury, just the latest injury in the wake of his Tommy John surgery comeback. If he comes back strong the remainder of this season and then there's trade interest, that's when his value is maximized.
3)I'm not opposed to trading Candy, Haase, and or Cisnero, those are 3 players who might fetch something of value, either individually or as part of package. But hell no, don't give them away either for just someone who has a ceiling of utility player.
4) I oppose anyone wanting to "Free Wily". Tigers just announced that Spencer Turnbull will be undergoing Tommy John surgery (this means he will miss all of the '22 season), why part with a starting pitcher who might be extremely valuable to us next season?
With a starting rotation of Mize, Skubal, Boyd, Peralta, and Manning next season this is potentially an 85-win or better team in '22. Add JV or another proven winner (plus another +bullpen arm) bumps that up to a playoff team.
p.s. Don't forget who our pitching coach is. Fetters is already proving himself to be an extremely valuable piece of the puzzle for Detroit.
Wily is a FA after this year. so he is definitely a guy a would trade while he is hot...assuming something of value is given in return and not just a bag of rocks. otherwise, he is needed to eat innings the rest of the year at a minimum.
Grossman is the only guy I see them dealing. He’s an OBP machine. He would be a good top of the order guy for a contender, but he’s past his peak years and won’t be of much value in 2-3 years. Their roster is incredibly young though, so there’s some value in hanging onto Cabrera (no one would take him, but Pujols found a spot on the Dodgers so who knows) Grossman and Schoop to provide that leadership and help the kids develop.
Pujols was released and then picked up by the dodgers. No one would trade for him. No one will trade for Cabrera since he still has three more years making $30 million.
My guess is he stays one more season to get to 3,000 hits, then retires under terms that he gets the remaining money on his contract over time.
It makes sense to trade Peralta and Cisnero to any interested contenders. Maybe Haase could make sense, too. But Schoop is their best player (maybe outside of Baddoo) and Candelario is coming along nicely. Shipping out Schoop and Haase leaves them with only 1 or 2 viable bats.
Avila's trade record has been nothing short of abysmal. He hopefully learned his lesson when he personally tanked Nick Castellanos trade value and is keeping his mouth shut, yet still trying to rebuild. Either way, he is no Trader Dave, and I don't trust that he will get useful return on anything sent out.
Yeah, I'm hoping they stand pat just because Avila has been so awful at trades.
Only real negative to this season is that Fulmer and Boyd have not stayed healthy to maintain their value. Still mad we didn’t trade Boyd two years ago when he was having an awesome and unrepeatable season
There was a time when Fulmer had much greater value as well.....
At this point I kinda doubt they'll do much of anything, values for most in-season pickups seem to have plummeted. It's very much a buyer's market.
At least they're fun to follow again, since they have a roster that is at least half full of MLB-quality players.
I've watched at least part of a lot of games this year. They are definitely more entertaining.
Here is the problem: if you decide to trade someone, it's Al Avila executing the trade.
His results to date indicate you are just better off putting players on waivers.
At least you save the salary.
Fulmer, Boyd, Turnbull were their best trade assets and they all got injured unfortunately.
In past seasons, they had to trade JD and Nicholas, I don't think there's anybody they have to trade this time. Schoop is a good asset and a FA, they'll need more than Zach Short for him is what I think Avila is saying.
I love how Avila is the problem when he trades and the problem when he doesn't.
I think he's made some very bad mistakes - the biggest is usually flying the "fire sale" flag too early and not being able to execute trades in good faith. (Offers are all low-ball, so he takes best of the worst.)
Now... AJ is helping Al game the system. If anyone is really wanted on this club, there's no reason to give them away. ESPECIALLY when you're trying to show potential free agents that you're serious about winning and won't bail on them the moment the record gets dicey. If someone wants to part with a great prospect to take Candy or Schoop or Boyd, fine. But it's got to be GREAT.
Schoop should be resigned, Candy should be extended. Boyd should be traded offseason (or extended at a lower rate due to injury issues). Peralta could be helpful next year at a low price. Haase's cheap bat is a nice thing to have, even if he ends up a bench player.
Cisnero is the most likely to get dealt but only for a good return.
Avila also never gets any credit for things like Haase, Schoop, Grossman, and Badoo. And he should.
I agree that he should get credit for his short term signings, but his trades have been beyond awful and I don't think that anyone can argue that fact.