OT: CJ Stroud Falling in Draft Projections
OSU's CJ Stroud was once thought likely to be the #1 overall pick, however there are concerns about his character and this:
One anonymous NFL executive McGinn spoke with cited Stroud’s S2 score and the fact he played at Ohio State as reasons why he believes the former Buckeyes’ star will be a draft bust.
Yes, it's being cited that he played at Ohio State, where their QBs are busts, as a reason why not to pick Stroud. Hear that top HS QB recruits?
Stroud's S2 score was in just the 18th percentile. The S2 measures "a player’s processing ability, split-second decisions, anticipation, adaptability and other cognitive skills."
Players like Mahomes, Burrow, and Allen scored well on the S2.
April 23rd, 2023 at 11:01 AM ^
The guy behind S2 also said the "leaked" scores, including Stroud's 18%, were not legit. Colts have been trying real hard to sink Stroud's draft stock so they can get him at 4.
April 23rd, 2023 at 11:23 AM ^
Colts want Levis. Titans want Stroud.
That's sad. Maybe he got a cold, hand?
Maybe Stroud had a cold during his S2.
Rumor has it he had to take it outside.
It would have been a good score except for like 5-6 big questions he missed.
I don't know about S2 scores, or even that he played at OSU. But what I do know is that the guy is not a winner. He actually played good against Michigan in '21 and '22, and he played damn good against UGA in the playoffs last season. But what do those three biggest games in his career have in common?
When his team needed its QB to make a play, he somehow didn't get it done. Credit for that usually goes to the defense during the game telecast. But looking back over the entirety of his career, the defense always seems to have gotten the better of him in those moments. At some point, you have to look at the QB.
Brady made plays when his team needed them the most. In January, Mahomes made plays when KC was looking for a SB loss. You never hear an announcer say something like "Stroud just gets it done when his team needs a play".
Small sample size, but the guy is just not a winner in the biggest games.
Yeah, that's the ultimate intangible that sets the great QB's apart from all the rest. Both teams can be loaded with talent on both sides of the line and play a completely even game until the end. But it's the QB makingvthr big plays when it counts that often decides the big games. I hope JJ can be THAT QB this season.
April 23rd, 2023 at 10:06 AM ^
That and the combined number of guys at Rutgers, Indiana, MSU,etc… that have a prayer of covering an OSU wideout is the same as the number of CJs wins over Michigan as a starter. Game gets harder when you play real competition like in the ….damn what’s that professional football league….tip of my tongue
April 23rd, 2023 at 10:24 AM ^
I would remove the Georgia game from this. He balled out in that game and then drove them down the field until Ryan Day decided to park the bus for a long field goal.
even against us when they had that 1st and 39 or something he got them to 4th and short and Day decided to do the fake punt.
he’s not perfect, but some of the criticism I think is definitely jaded.
April 23rd, 2023 at 10:38 AM ^
CJ Stroud scored a whopping 16 points in the 2nd Half in his 2 career games vs. Michigan. Surrounded by 4 NFL OL, NFL RB in Henderson and 5 1st round NFL WR's (Olave, Wilson, JSN, Harrison, Egbuka).
His 2nd Half drives in the biggest game of his career had 5 punts, 2 interceptions, a turnover on downs, 2 touchdowns and a field goal. With all that talent he led 3 scoring drives out of 11.
Now he's going to be drafted to a much worse situation with a significantly less talent advantage. Color me pretty skeptical.
LOL, Henderson might go to the NFL, but right now he's a looking like a fairly low draft pick, if that. Dude has trouble reading his holes. I'm not sold on Stroud with the exception of his accuracy when given time, which is amazing, but, as an isolated trait isn't nearly enough to be a great NFL QB. However, he has not been "surrounded" by any running game of consequence in his tenure.
April 23rd, 2023 at 10:58 AM ^
He was mostly terrific at OSU and is extremely accurate. But his flaw is when he doesn’t have time or gets moved out of the pocket. He tends to panic a little. In the NFL, he won’t have all day to stand in the pocket and throw to wide-open receivers.
April 23rd, 2023 at 12:37 PM ^
Yeah, that is the real issue IMO.
If I were drafting a QB for a two-hand touch 7-on-7 game, Stroud would be my guy.
There was enough data from his two years starting at OSU to see that his efficiency dropped off a cliff when pressured. He is unlikely to enjoy the benefit of having OL who are recruited strictly for their pass blocking prowess and multiple WR who ARE NFL first round draft picks when he gets to the NFL.
I don't think he will be a "bust" but I would not draft him in the first round. He seems more like a 2nd or 3rd round QB to me.
He was absolutely dominant against Georgia. It's not his fault that his coach turtled again.
1000 dollars he still goes 1 or 2
April 23rd, 2023 at 11:12 AM ^
If the 49ers would use three 1st Round picks to take Trey Lance then yes, that also could happen.
It's all part of the universe's master plan to have him fall to 6.
Wouldn't that be a kick in the junk.
Don’t you out that evil in me Rickey Bobby.
April 23rd, 2023 at 12:14 PM ^
Shut your whore mouth. Do not speak that into existance!
"One anonymous NFL executive McGinn spoke with cited Stroud’s S2 score and the fact he played at Ohio State as reasons why he believes the former Buckeyes’ star will be a draft bust."
A lot of people on this blog have been saying this for years. What exactly is the problem with having OSU QB lineage? Thoughts? I have a few theories, but I do think the their issues have evolved over the years as well. It isn't like Pryor can be compared to Stroud.
1. Over reliance on mobility, that in most cases, doesn't translate to the NFL. They are often just an athlete.
2. Often getting to lean on exceptional teammates at skill positions, that simply make you look better, recently it has been the receivers making the QB look great.
3. Relatively easy scheduling, comparatively, and lack of in state rival (and secondary rival) help make for over inflated stats and an atmosphere where they start coasting.
4. Coaches who aren't NFL caliber
5. Coddled and put on a pedastal by the OSU culture system.
What else is it? I feel like this is what I see from afar. Are these in the ballpark?
April 23rd, 2023 at 10:07 AM ^
Isn't the criticism of OSU QBs that they aren't taught to read defenses like NFL QBs have to do? A typical OSU play is, the QB and rest of the offense stand in formation looking at the sideline, and Urbs or Day or their staff relay in the play (after THEY analyze the defense), and the QB runs the play. (That, on top of the fact OSU out-mans the opposition by an average of 3.14159 stars per player, so the plays invariably work.) Then they get to the NFL and they be like, "wait, you want me to play school WHILE playing QB?"
It's not a matter of physical tools or intelligence. It's that OSU has not, for 20 years, recruited QBs who would make good NFL QBs. They recruit guys who can run their system to perfection. Chips fall where they may.
(I insert my fave trivia questions I have previously posted. Name (1) the only player who regularly started at QB at OSU who took a snap as a quarterback in a Superbowl; and (2) the only player who regularly started at QB at OSU who started at his position in a Superbowl--and you got it right, it wasn't as QB.) Hint: If you only know OSU QBs from the 1990s to present, you won't get the right answers.
April 23rd, 2023 at 10:55 AM ^
1) I'd say Mike Tomczak, because he's OSU's best NFL QB, and 2) Art Schlichster at punter?
April 23rd, 2023 at 12:52 PM ^
Half WINNER. Tomscak in third string role in 4Q blowout in SB XX for Da Bears. He didnt even make the box score… he didnt attempt a pass.
April 23rd, 2023 at 10:56 AM ^
I assume Tom Tupa is the latter, no idea on the former...
April 23rd, 2023 at 12:51 PM ^
WINNER
April 23rd, 2023 at 11:34 AM ^
(That, on top of the fact OSU out-mans the opposition by an average of 3.14159 stars per player, so the plays invariably work.)
In other words, they think they can run circles around their opponent?
April 23rd, 2023 at 12:28 PM ^
Only 3 and 5 hold any water in this case.
1. Stroud has never lived off his legs
2. In their ideal passing game, Stroud drops back, primary reciever gets open while CJ is unmolested, and CJ drops a dime. In those circumstances, CJ can wing it.
3. In CFB, it's much easier for the ideal conditions described in #2 to be created. Maybe OSU reads too many clippings, but in the one game they focused on for the entirety of last season, CJ struggled when it mattered.
4. Very few CFB coaches are NFL Caliber. You don't have to be to succeed in CFB. Bort Bielemia, Mork Dantonio, Bo Pellini, and a host of other coaches have been successful in CFB, but would be chewed up and spat out of the NFL, e.g. Nick Saban and Steve Spurrier.
5. Maybe OSU takes it to excess, but so do most of P5 campuses. Think the people around JJ don't line up to kiss his ass? There is also a dark side to the OSU football monomania in C-bus: They don't like it when you lose to Michigan.
I agree Grampy, I don't think #3 applies either. OSU typically schedules a good non-conference opponent, are in the East and occasionally makes the BCS...against Georgia.
With that, the S2 evaluation is a valid concern given these factors especially in bullet #2 which focuses on the level of talent he has at his disposal and typically doesn't need to make a non-primary read.
You might be surprised by the Strength of Schedule Stroud got to play under.
Soft, melting through the rankings. Also, he dumb (allegedly).
Michigan broke him. We will haunt him forever. Doesn't define him as a person but as a player he will forever be remembered as winless in The Game.
Is that how Chad Henne, Mike Hart, and Jake Long are defined?
Yes, but they were 0 for 4.
April 23rd, 2023 at 10:08 AM ^
As we saw the last 2 years he doesn't handle pressure in the pocket well. He gets rattled. Some guys put a dagger in your heart under those conditions. Not him. I'm sure the league has noticed.
April 23rd, 2023 at 10:13 AM ^
He will be the second QB taken in this years draft, wherever that is. Probably top 10, if he's there for the Lions second pick I bet they take him.
April 23rd, 2023 at 10:13 AM ^
He will be the second QB taken in this years draft, wherever that is. Probably top 10, if he's there for the Lions second pick I bet they take him.
April 23rd, 2023 at 10:17 AM ^
Shirley you can’t be serious?! OSU draft busts? Nooooo
April 23rd, 2023 at 10:41 AM ^
Believe nothing you read about the draft in the two weeks before it takes place.
April 23rd, 2023 at 10:51 AM ^
Wait, should I believe this?
April 23rd, 2023 at 10:42 AM ^
The difficulty in assessing Stroud, and many other college qbs from top programs, is he throws to excellent receivers against mediocre competition in a system designed to take advantage of raw talent discrepancies. That’s not to say he can’t be really successful, it’s just you can’t take his college performance as an indicator of NFL readiness.
April 23rd, 2023 at 11:41 AM ^
So basically Mac Jones without the processing speed?
April 23rd, 2023 at 11:57 AM ^
Mediocre competition? He averaged 350 yards per game against Michigan and Georgia, and threw for 573 yards and 6 TDs in his Rose Bowl appearance. He played against the best college football had to offer.
Their strength of schedule last year was ranked 55, and was near the bottom of the BIG in 2021 as well.
They don't have the worst schedule, but it is usually pretty average.
He had the best WR corps in the country to throw to. That helps. Also, that Utah team in the Rose Bowl was definitely not "the best college football had to offer." Utah had no healthy starting corners.
Agree. Utah was defending ok/well until they had to rely on the third string.
April 23rd, 2023 at 10:49 AM ^
Might be schtick... They did it with Marino to get him to fall. Stroud is good and he's the best QB in the draft. History suggests he won't make it, as there has never been a viable OSU QB, but I think he will.
April 23rd, 2023 at 10:51 AM ^
Fields will be good too eventually.
Fields transferred in so it doesn't count. The OSU staff didn't pick him from getgo like they did McCord.
Then again, they recruited Burrow and he transferred out.
April 23rd, 2023 at 10:53 AM ^
Stroud didn’t have to worry about making split second decisions, adaptability or processing ability at OSU. His receivers were absurdly open at just about any point in time because they were just that physically gifted and athletically superior to their competition. Stroud could almost always count on his first read being wide open for a 40-50 yard gain.
This all is not to say that there’s no way Stroud could be successful in the league. Maybe he bucks the OSU trend of being elite in college and dogshit in the league, but when you’ve got that kind of built in advantage over your competition, you’re in for a rude awakening in the league, because your competition is now at least as good as you, if not better.