OT: CJ Stroud Falling in Draft Projections
OSU's CJ Stroud was once thought likely to be the #1 overall pick, however there are concerns about his character and this:
One anonymous NFL executive McGinn spoke with cited Stroud’s S2 score and the fact he played at Ohio State as reasons why he believes the former Buckeyes’ star will be a draft bust.
Yes, it's being cited that he played at Ohio State, where their QBs are busts, as a reason why not to pick Stroud. Hear that top HS QB recruits?
Stroud's S2 score was in just the 18th percentile. The S2 measures "a player’s processing ability, split-second decisions, anticipation, adaptability and other cognitive skills."
Players like Mahomes, Burrow, and Allen scored well on the S2.
April 23rd, 2023 at 12:00 PM ^
well, peyton manning couldn't win the big games either.
Peyton won 2 Super Bowls. Those are generally considered big games.
Not at the time he was drafted, he didn't. Which, you know, is the point of this conversation.
I Don’t remember those games but weren’t they basically won by Terrell Davis the O-line and the D? Wasn’t Peyton Manning basically Trent Dilfer at that point?
Peyton was the MVP of game when the Colts won in 2007 against the Bears. When the Broncos won in 2016, Manning made sure Broncos offense was in the right play and handed the ball off a lot, while Von Miller taught Cam Newton what a parking lot feels like when it is getting paved.
Well, the defense won the SB for Indy-for sure. The D scored a TD and forced 5 turnovers and Vinatieri kicked 3 FGs. So the offense was handed field position after field position and only scored 2 TDs but Peyton was given the MVP Award-this is Peyton Manning. And, about 70% of the cost of the roster was designated to the offense.
Otherwise, I am not a fan of PM-certainly not personally. His lovely wife, Ashley, is wonderful but Peyton is an arrogant schmuck. I was employed at Peyton Manning Children's Hospital when he was playing in Indy-I know/saw/experienced him first hand. His smartassness may be cute on TV but it isn't in person.
You hate to see it...
Color me surprised!
Accidentally posted above when it was meant to go here...but I won't delete the dupe because it is too perfect. LOL
Only a handful of QBs will ever become anything other than an average nfl qb every few years. If you are one of the elite you tend to have a good run. It’s the mountaintop. So OSU qbs not working out that way isn’t on its face an indictment of the school. That said, the level of offensive firepower and its relative superiority to the competition at OSU makes it even harder to assess if they have a real shot to be elite in the NFL. It’s a double edged sword to play there, and NFL GMs are noticing. You almost have to throw out their entire college experience and go off of very little data. Especially for a guy who can’t beat Michigan. I wouldn’t draft him
April 23rd, 2023 at 10:29 AM ^
Or, one could simply take a look at history and make a statistical analysis. No OSU QB has ever, in all the 14 billion years of the universe, been anything above dogshit in the NFL. Not having to even consider any analysis as to why (which is a luxury statistics affords us) and just playing the odds on this one, Stroud is very likely to be dogshit. You are much better off to take a USC/BYU/UM/Stanford/Alabama/ND, or even Purdue and Cal QB.
April 23rd, 2023 at 10:39 AM ^
Don't forget that records from 12 billion years ago got lost in the conflagration after that epic dinosaur-alien battle.
Other than that possible exception, your erudite analysis and carefully considered phrasing stands.
April 23rd, 2023 at 12:09 PM ^
But the QBs from UM are not really lighting it up either. There was a good run with Grbac, Griese, Brady, even Henne, but that was in the 1990s and 2000s. To be fair, I don't think any where high draft picks. I think OU maybe pretty good as well to add to your list and good call on Purdue.
For a HS recruit, the higher you're drafted, the more money you'll get in the rookie deal, so it would be a good selling point even if you're a bust.
April 23rd, 2023 at 12:52 PM ^
Recent UM QB's notwithstanding, my analysis covers 14 billion years of cosmic history, in which time no OSU QB has ever won a playoff game or even started a season for a team finishing above 500.
To be fair. you are cherry picking data. If you went back 16 billion years...
But the QBs from UM are not really lighting it up either.
Indeed, it's been two long years since a Michigan QB won it all.
Or if you count backup QBs, a couple of months.
April 23rd, 2023 at 12:42 PM ^
While this sounds reasonable, it ignores a lot of historical fact.
i read an article awhile back that examined the lack of successful NFL QBs by OSU, Oklahoma and those powerful Nebraska teams of last century and it all boils down to the offenses that they ran for decades - mostly the read option which - obviously - highlighted a running QB. Day is the 1st OSU HC in decades that uses a NFL offense and QB
Those Nebraska and Oklahoma teams of the last century were considered some of the greatest ever and many consider the 1995 NU team as the greatest ever. None of those teams had NFL QBs. and without looking it up, I believe the Oklahoma teams - under Wilkinson - still holds the record for most consecutive wins
There you go again, looking at facts.
So he’s to S2 tests what Vince Young was to Wunderlich tests? OSU QBs look good in college because they’re surrounded by superior talent. They get to the NFL and get a rude awakening.
I read an article about S2 in the Athletic and apparently there is a strong correlation between that test and success at QB. It does not measure intelligence like Wunderlich, it measures how fast you process images. Brock Purdy was a top scorer, as is Bryce Young this year
And Justin Fields and Burrows apparently had top tier scores as well. With the Bears adding some WR talent and offensive line help, it will be interesting to see if Fields takes a solid jump forward.
what OSU QBs were actually busts though? Pretty obvious Pryor was never a QB and some wanted him as a WR straight out of college, same with Braxton Miller. Cardale Jones was a flash in the pan. Dwayne Haskins you could say was a big bust but it's not like any of their QBs have ever came across as being a no brainer franchise QB. With that I still think Justin Fields is going to be really good if he can ever get a functional offense around him.
Stroud is good. With all do respect to JJ, JJ missed more throws in a quarter of last season than Stroud has his entire career. Stroud can fling it. now with that said, I'm not 100% sold on him. if he would have shown he can throw on the run more that would settle it for me. I'm worried he is a little too much of a standing pocket passer only.
Also, now is the time to put out false quotes to try and shake up thoughts in the heads of other GMs and vegas.
April 23rd, 2023 at 10:05 AM ^
Yes the OSU QB thing has turned into a meme, but much like with stereotypes there is a reason it exists.
I watched part of the OSU Spring game last week and on at least a few occasions I saw McCord "stare down" Marvin Harrison Jr. rather than making any post-snap reads - each time resulted in a completion. You can do this in college when 95% of the DBs will not be able to cover the OSU WRs but the challenge is raised in the NFL as the talent disparities are eliminated.
Stroud is a great passer but - like most QBs - his numbers drop when "off schedule" and unlike a QB elsewhere Stroud was rarely put in that position. When he was hurried or his reads were covered - i.e. several times in the last 2 M games he looked indecisive, confused, and unwilling to run and take a hit for his teammates. Maybe this is due to the fact that it rarely happened to him at OSU - or maybe it is a sign that he will not flourish under pressure at the next level.
TLDR -- OSU QB "busts" = huge stats in college that are the result of talent disparity and scheme that are not repeatable (to date) in the NFL.
April 23rd, 2023 at 11:34 AM ^
How good is Stroud when his primary read isn’t there?
OSU QB’s not being good in the NFL is a thing. The best OSU QB in the NFL was actually punter Tom Tupa. Fields, last seen running for his life, can change that.
April 23rd, 2023 at 12:44 PM ^
Well, all of them except for Craig Krenzel.
Fun anecdote. Craig Krenzel is a crazy dad at his kids softball games and has been thrown out of a number of games. Note—he doesn’t coach—he gets run from outside the fence.
I watched him act like an ass in person, but he did not get run on that occasion. It was tough to recognize him. He is a wee bit above his playing weight. Being a nuclear scientist must cause you to blow up.
what OSU QBs were actually busts though? Pretty obvious Pryor was never a QB and some wanted him as a WR straight out of college, same with Braxton Miller. Cardale Jones was a flash in the pan. Dwayne Haskins you could say was a big bust but it's not like any of their QBs have ever came across as being a no brainer franchise QB.
You are overthinking this. Here is the point: OSU QBs do not make good NFL QBs.
The fact that Burrow transferred and then actually became a good NFL QB adds weight to this argument.
Stroud can sling it. No denying his arm talent. But Jeff George may be a perfect comp here.
I don't think anyone knows or can know his outcome. I'd risk a late 2nd or 3rd if he was available and he didn't do something in interviews to swing things one way or the other
I don't think it's an OSU thing, I think it's an elite college program thing.
Look at how rare it is for top NFL QBs to come from top college programs. Hurts and Lawrence and Watson and Brady? Yes. Rodgers, Mahomes, Burrows, Wilson, Newton, Luck, Jackson, the Mannings, Roethlisberger, Newton, Brees all from more moderate programs*
I feel it comes down to how much they are challenged in college. Stroud had Wilson, Olave, JSN then MHJ and Egbuka. Waves of elite receivers who were always open. Contrast this with players who didn't have those weapons and had to process better, find targets better, outthink their opposition more
Look at how much Fields - an eminently talented athlete - is struggling as a passer in the NFL
*some of these guys made their programs great (Burrows,Newton) only to fall back a bit after they left. Watson falls into this category
** running quarterbacks from top programs (Watson, Hurts) tend to do better. required to process more than pocket guys who can go to their first option
Tennessee was not a "moderate" program. They were fairly consistently a top 15 team before Peyton got there and they won a national title the year after he left.
Burrows - LSU/OSU. Elite.
Newton - Auburn. Elite.
Peyton Manning - Tenn. Elite.
Tua. Bama
herbert. Oregon
Just moved half named to another category.
it’s not they were busts at OSU it’s that they don’t make good NFL quarterbacks because the system is simple and better talent. Therefore they are passed up or become busts.
In what world are LSU, 90’s Tennessee, and Auburn not considered elite programs?
April 23rd, 2023 at 10:03 AM ^
This is a dumb post, as others have already said. Plus it is Burrow.
April 24th, 2023 at 12:31 PM ^
It is Burrow, except in Letterkenny, Ont.
Does Manningham still own the record for the lowest score on the Wunderlich? I always thought that was ridiculous. God I miss him.
April 23rd, 2023 at 11:20 AM ^
Morris Claiborne reportedly scored a 4.
April 23rd, 2023 at 10:35 AM ^
I dunno man, 10/26 for 76 yards against Northwestern? Surrounding talent or not, Stroud also doesn't appear to deal with one ounce of adversity.
Case in point, Brian's OSU UFR this year, noting that plays were almost always dead if you trick Stroud and take away his first read. That's gonna flop like tuna in the NFL. Same issue I saw with Justin Fields at OSU. Just didn't seem to process the field quickly and deliver. It was covered over @ OSU since receivers were wide open, not much pressure, and he could outrun 99% of the people in college. But, he sucks in the NFL.
April 23rd, 2023 at 10:50 AM ^
Wasn't that Northwestern game played in Hurricane Katrina 2.0?
April 23rd, 2023 at 11:36 AM ^
Ya, the Northwestern QB had to play in the same conditions. Stroud was 10/26 for 76 yards. Brendan Sullivan was 10/14 for 79 yards. It took Stroud 12 more throws to do the same that a Northwestern QB could do in the same conditions with far less talent around him.
April 23rd, 2023 at 11:51 AM ^
Or, alternatively, Ryan Day called 12 more passing plays despite the conditions.
April 23rd, 2023 at 10:56 AM ^
That game was played in a brutal storm. Also anyone can cherry pick one game.
April 23rd, 2023 at 11:01 AM ^
I cited 2 games. In the latter, in perfect conditions, Stroud went 2/4 passing to UM players in the final 5 minutes. Pretty good numbers.
You're still cherry picking...the last 5 minutes...in desperation mode and put in a hole due their horrible run defense.
He didn't have a bad game. Let's just cherry pick the performance against Georgia?
Stroud throws a beautiful ball and is accurate. He was dynamite at OSU because his first and second reads at OSU were the likes of Olave, Wilson, Njigba, MHJ.
The NFL is most concerned with 2 things.
Can you fling it - Stroud checks out
Can you read a defense quickly - Hard to predict, but scouts try to use these tests and what college programs have historically produced.
Stroud falling because of OSU would make sense, partially because their first read is generally open so the QB doesn't develop going through progressions.
But a ton of NFL Qbs will regularly face bad weather and desperation mode. As far as the UGA, he had an entire month to prepare and was well-rested, and his WRs were better than the UGA DBs.
April 24th, 2023 at 12:37 PM ^
True, 2/4 to UM players late. But one of those was underhand!
Loved that game.
I mean…LOL OSU QBs and so on…but this kinda feels a little like pre-draft “let’s tank this dude’s draft stock so he falls to us” crap that always gets thrown around every year by “anonymous league executives.”