Notre Dame Covid update
Quick refresher: prior to matriculation, Notre dame tested 11k students to ensure no positive cases would arrive to campus They found 33 positives of the entire Population tested
First day of classes was last week August 10
Their plan lasted exactly 1 day before their first case. Yesterday ( 7 days from the start of testing), they had 89 new daily cases, with a daily positive rate of around 20%. For perspective, the state of Indiana has 800-900 daily cases per rolling 7 day average
https://here.nd.edu/our-approach/dashboard/
(Website under heavy demand at the moment)
August 18th, 2020 at 1:06 PM ^
20% positive rate is pretty ominous. Yikes.
August 18th, 2020 at 1:08 PM ^
I would like to know if any of the positive tests are members of the football team.
This may be a hot take, but my opinion is that if the decision to play/not play football was purely about player safety, all the players should be playing. Without football, the players are just like any other student and have a large risk of getting Covid. If they're playing football, they have every incentive imaginable to avoid covid (social distance, wear masks, etc.) and spend most of their time with people who share the same incentives and are rigorously tested. This creates a pseudo-bubble of people who have a lower risk of contracting the virus than the general population.
Not sure how it's safe to bring students back but not safe enough for football under stringent guidelines.
August 18th, 2020 at 1:16 PM ^
#facepalm
August 18th, 2020 at 1:18 PM ^
Probably depends heavily both upon your opinion of risks related to issues like myocarditis and your opinion of potential remedies to address those risks. High intensity exercise makes myocarditis risks significantly higher.
Also depends upon your estimates of likelihood of games getting cancelled and how many games you need to get in to make season worthwhile.
August 19th, 2020 at 2:33 PM ^
Appreciate your response as opposed to #facepalm. Regarding myocarditis, I get that there are a lot of unknowns, but the ultimate goal for the safety of student athletes should be to limit their exposure to the virus. It's pretty clear that lumping them in with the rest of the students on campus is poor public health practice. If you cancel the season, players are still partaking in high-intensity exercise (lifting/practice). They're likely just doing so under less supervision - depending on what the NCAA ultimately decides.
Where is the safest place in the country for an athlete right now? Probably the NBA bubble in Orlando. By teams creating a pseudo bubble on campus, they're providing additional protection above that of the rest of students on campus.
As for incentives driving behavior, the NFL tested everybody upon the start of camp and had a 1.9% positivity rate. Now, a few weeks later, the positive rate for players is 0.8% (which includes intake testing). NFL players aren't in a bubble, a la NBA players. But they're in a pseudo bubble with every incentive imaginable to avoid Covid.
August 18th, 2020 at 1:39 PM ^
All ND football players in the dorms room with a "regular" student so there is even less of a "bubble" at ND.
(Unfortunately I know this because it was one of the things Rocco Spindler apparently liked about ND compared to other schools.)
August 18th, 2020 at 2:22 PM ^
Well you're right about one thing, that is a hot take indeed.
August 18th, 2020 at 1:16 PM ^
Less than 1,000 tests performed in 15 days since students have started to go back to campus seems mind blowingly low. Even more so when you're looking at a 20% positivity rate.
August 18th, 2020 at 1:20 PM ^
Apparently only testing those showing symptoms and those identified through contact tracing. Obviously in addition to surveillance testing of football team. Certainly does make optics of the significant surveillance testing for athletes vs the none for regular students look pretty bad.
August 18th, 2020 at 1:37 PM ^
I kinda figured that was the case. Just seems like the extra expense of more testing would be worth the likely or possible payoff of being able to keep campus open for the full semester. At the rate they're going it seems unlikely they will be able to stay open.
August 19th, 2020 at 10:36 AM ^
Except that they will all get better. The odds of death at this age group approaches 0. There is no data on prolonged organ damage for this age group beyond the anecdotal case.
driving, alcohol related illness, date rape are much bigger public health concerns for this age group than is covid19.
Andbefore people are concerned about grandma, tell the kids to quarantine and test before going home to see grandma. And grandma can refuse to see them too— the elderly are capable of making decisions.
August 18th, 2020 at 5:59 PM ^
I can't believe ND only planned on testing symptomatic/contact traced community members. They have tons of resources, and should have planned to test a good chunk of the population daily at random, on top of symptomatic and contact-traced. Did they not see how poorly that worked for everyone in the spring?
August 18th, 2020 at 1:18 PM ^
Wuhan China doesn't seem to concerned with the Covid ...thousands here & not a mask in sight & zero social distancing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=2&v=lin208PODKA&feature=emb_logo
August 18th, 2020 at 1:27 PM ^
They've done the work to flatten this and get to enjoy the rewards. We have done no work and get no rewards.
August 18th, 2020 at 1:29 PM ^
That's because:
1) they got crushed early and hard and a lot of people got it and already died or are essentially immune, similar to NYC
2) they went into an insanely strict lockdown during which they literally couldn't leave their homes. We could have dome something like that to get rid of the virus but we chose (probably correctly) to simply flatten the curve.
3) there's almost zero chance they actually have had zero cases since mid-May. Their govt is probably withholding info to make it look like their coordinated draconian lockdowns were the way to go and that their govt works better than others.
August 18th, 2020 at 2:27 PM ^
Agreed. Pretty amazing people point to other countries locking up their citizens at gunpoint as evidence of the right way to do things.
August 18th, 2020 at 1:50 PM ^
I guess I am missing the implied "/s" of the propaganda you attached.
I follow a Youtuber who lived in China for 10 years until just recently. He still keeps in touch with friends and his wife's family in the country.
One thing he noted recently was that in late 2019 and the early months of 2020 - there was a net loss of 21 MILLION cell phone accounts in China per records of the publicly traded cell providers. This was sudden and bucked a trend of constant growth...but I guess it doesn't mean anything at all.
August 18th, 2020 at 2:28 PM ^
Are you implying they killed off 21 Million people?
Or more likely - took away access to communications from the people they oppress?
August 18th, 2020 at 4:53 PM ^
Most of that is thought to be due to migrant workers canceling the SIM cards they used when not at home--because they could not actually go to their jobs. It is common for Chinese people to have more than one SIM card for various reasons.
Are the numbers out of China suspect? Yes. Are they likely to be exaggerated that much? No.
August 18th, 2020 at 7:26 PM ^
Hard to argue with that kinda of tested sourcing. Please share the name of this
"Youtuber" who apparently has his finger on one of the great conspracies in the world.
August 18th, 2020 at 1:20 PM ^
For additional perspective though, Notre Dame has far better testing and tracing capabilities than the state of Indiana. Also, more accessible testees. They're probably catching most of the cases on campus whereas the state is probably not even confirming a tenth of cases (per most experts).
Even this is quite an alarming increase in a short period of time, though. Similar to UNC.
August 18th, 2020 at 1:26 PM ^
Same posters day after day having the same arguments expecting different results. I think they have a word for that.
August 18th, 2020 at 2:23 PM ^
Boredom?
August 18th, 2020 at 1:33 PM ^
I looked at their website and they never determined preconditions to cancel. That’s a failure for any policy and a sign of a hidden agenda.
August 18th, 2020 at 1:51 PM ^
Dear BoFan,
Can you speculate a bit more about the nature of the hidden agenda? I am curious because I am a professor and just about to return to the classroom, and quite frankly your thoughts have me more concerned than I already was. I have not seen in my own university's "return to campus" guidelines clear "preconditions to cancel," so I would like to know what hidden agenda lurks behind it all. I don't want to be a "victim" of the liberal power brokers that lurk behind what "seem" to be commonsense initiatives in all of this Covid-19 mess that we are "supposedly" in, and it sounds like you might have some pretty sound ideas about it all.
Specifically, BoFan, I want to know your thoughts about 1. who is behind the agenda; 2. what they hope to gain by promoting the agenda; 3. how I can protect myself, not primarily from this "disease," but from being manipulated by the liberal power that simmers beneath everything that irritates me about my own life. I think you know what I mean (winking emoji).
Thank you for your brave insights. Few are willing to speak truth to power, but you seem persistent and undaunted. Never give up, and above all, never let the liberals gain control of you. All they will do is make you a slave to their sinister beliefs and I think we both know who profits from it all right? (hint: I am looking straight at YOU Al Gore and George Soros!)
Very Sincerely,
Marvin
August 18th, 2020 at 3:20 PM ^
Marvin,
I'm not sure what to make of your post. You seem to be mixing sincerity, sarcasm, and sycophancy into a slightly mocking tone that ends with conspiracy theory. Intent? Hmm? Should I wink here
My use of "hidden agenda" is not at all as nefarious as you suggest.
Simply, leaders in situations like these, that have decided not to be transparent about or have not done the work to put in place the action plans that go along with measure like these, don't want to be held to actions that might be counter to their primary agenda. Also they don't want to lose the power and control of being able to call an audible. It could mean nothing though and they just want to make a decision as it comes. Here is yet another reason:
”“Most schools have a plan in place, but they will not release it,” said Luis Toledo, a data and policy analyst at the College Crisis Initiative at Davidson College, which is tracking how U.S. schools are dealing with the pandemic. “If you release it and acknowledge there is a possibility of student dying, it begs the question: Why are you bringing students back in the first place?””
There are plenty of exceptions that are not at all bad. But even in complex cases like at the Fed, they try to be as transparent as possible. Maybe they have no idea yet
Your last paragraph is almost Pony Conqueroresque?
August 18th, 2020 at 4:39 PM ^
Marvin, I'm glad you're with me. We need more great americans like you to stop those liberals. I have to tell you that my people are telling me the liberals are going to try to manipulate you and your students to stay on campus until the election so they can complain about ALL these cases and ALL these deaths just to ruin my reelection. You're right about Gore and Soros and I bet that traitor Bill Gates is behind this too. He's probably sending COVID infected spys to every campus as we speak just to ruin all the great progress we have made for our great country. Don't forget he plans to make billions and billions with his china virus chip. I'm told they are all working with the china people too. We need people like you to stop them. Make sure you go to my website and donate. Get one of our beautiful hats and one of our brand new trump masks. And don't forget to look for my new COVID treatment coming soon.
August 18th, 2020 at 2:08 PM ^
This guy, thinking he's entitled to absolutely every bit of information ever created.
August 18th, 2020 at 2:46 PM ^
I've asked the WMU president and provost for their key positive test metrics and associated responses. No response. Their big plan is essentially, test, masks, no classes over 70 students.
But as far as what they will do if their "Safe Return to Campus" plan turns out to (predictably) not be safe, they either have no plan or are refusing to share it.
August 18th, 2020 at 3:23 PM ^
It is absolutely a fair question for any professor, student, or parent impacted.
August 18th, 2020 at 1:40 PM ^
Figuring the virus come out of the lab in Wuhan - did they have a vaccine already in place & waiting, or one close to being done? A touch of conspiracy theory on the vax part ...
Or did the strain of covid over there weaken enough, so that it is non lethal, except for people with underlying conditions?
August 18th, 2020 at 1:59 PM ^
See my post above -- there were likely millions of deaths in China from this virus.
Given that most of them were probably old and/or unhealthy already I am sure the CCP marked it up as a "net positive" in the big picture. However they could never allow the full truth out or risk losing face and control of their populace.....just my opinion..
August 18th, 2020 at 7:34 PM ^
You know that no one is treating anything you say seriously, don't you.
August 18th, 2020 at 1:51 PM ^
From the UNC Clusterfuck editorial;
We all saw this coming.
August 18th, 2020 at 1:53 PM ^
The spike in college campus positive Covid cases will occur everywhere. It will be a matter of what percentage of the student population. Michigan and MSU campuses will not be exempt.
August 18th, 2020 at 2:07 PM ^
Especially MSU
August 18th, 2020 at 2:07 PM ^
Increase in testing will control this. It’s what I was told on the boobtube
August 18th, 2020 at 2:19 PM ^
AZBlue ... you are correct. Plus it also put a serious dent in USA's pocketbook, kids & young adults educations, & killed some American traditions for now (sports etc).
In a biowarfare lab like that - they would be working on the vax at the same time. But with this type of virus ...pretty hard to do. And it sounds like the lab girl that was patient zero, spilled some on herself to start with ... & thus was an accident.
August 18th, 2020 at 2:23 PM ^
I just hope MGOBlog doesn’t end up online only.
Next you’ll be telling me Keith Jackson is dead.
August 18th, 2020 at 2:37 PM ^
Ohio Governor DeWine just gave the go-ahead for a Fall football season to start as scheduled. Ohio will be playing a 6- game schedule, followed by playoffs, with all teams making the playoffs. Once you lose in the playoffs, you can continue to play against other non-playoff teams for up to a 10 game schedule. Note: in a typical year, Ohio usually plays a 10-game regular season and not all team make the playoffs.
August 18th, 2020 at 2:45 PM ^
I don't know what their sampling is for testing (are they only testing kids who self-report because they're feeling sick?) but 20% is up there with the worst of the south right now. I can't imagine the entire student body is at 20%, but if their percent positive cases are upticking that fast, this experiment will be done by Labor Day
August 18th, 2020 at 3:00 PM ^
Since the original post they’ve added 80 new cases with 418 new tests. We will have lots of new data very quickly to confirm or disprove the hypothesis that this is no big deal for college students.
August 18th, 2020 at 4:03 PM ^
I've had Covid. Wore masks. Took precautions. Washed and sanitized regularly. But it's a nasty disease. I still spent over a week in the hospital for it. It messes up your lungs big time. Still have lingering effects. Many people I know have had it. According to some brilliant geniuses out there, we all got sick deliberately because we hate Trump. We were even willing to die to prove a point. The irony about this is the most ardent Trump supporter we know actually died from Covid.
But let the doubters keep tooting their BS. Keep calling it a hoax. It'll hit home sooner or later.
August 18th, 2020 at 4:31 PM ^
Just curious, how much out of pocket expense is your hospitalization and recovery costing? I think many people are too focused on thinking maybe it’s only 1 or 2% die, and not on the debt that you could face from surviving a serious bout of covid.
August 18th, 2020 at 6:01 PM ^
I have insurance so cost wasn't that bad considering. That is once deductible is met. Other than death, it's the long term effects that I think are going to cause us all problems. Damage to our lungs, heart, muscles, etc. are going to be monitored with a barrage of Dr. appointments EKG's, Xrays, blood work, and more follow ups.
And that includes people who think they had it mildly. It will be interesting if the insurance companies roll this into pre-existing conditions if the government allows this to happen. Will someone that had an asymptomatic Covid disease be classified as having a pre-existing condition? Will insurance rates sky rocket?
We, as a society, have to be on the same page. Either we all wear masks, social distance, etc till we beat this OR we all run around thinking we are invincible. Somewhere in between won't work. That's where leadership, enforcement, and respect for others comes in.
I'm not a Debbie Downer. Just a realist. But I think a lot of bad shit is still around the corner regardless of who is President in November. I just hope we don't someday look at the spring/summer of 2020 as the "good ol days".
August 18th, 2020 at 5:13 PM ^
To Hell with Notre Dame