NON-Realignment CFB Season Snowflakes

Would love to see osu get upset a few times before getting blown out by Michigan in A2. That would warm the cockles of my heart 

Can Spencer Rattler put it all together? He absolutely went off against Tennessee last year.

In general, S. Carolina was an interesting, but inconsistent team last year. Won some good games against Clemson and Tennessee, played close against ND, and had some brain farts (losing to Florida). The first game against N. Carolina on Sept. 2 will be interesting.

Alabama pulled in 9 5-star recruits last year. They will be alright.

Here's what I want to happen - and then of course, the stories around it captivate me.

• OSU loses 3 times - including in a crushing by us, but beats PSU.
• MSU loses 9 games
• Bama loses 3 games
• Colorado loses badly, a lot.
• Michigan runs the entire table. 
• Michigan Stadium offers a free cheeseburger to all who enter for the first game and it becomes an annual tradition OR Michigan donates all the proceeds from sales of cheeseburgers to local causes.
• OSU flip flops on QBs all season long.
• Franklin loses 2 games because of time mismanagement.
• Michigan installs seats in the new stadium refresh.
• Notre Dame sucks in whatever way is most embarassing

Great questions - and, from where I sit - the "unknown" - specifically, roster changes at the college level - with players that we all support and want to succeed.

Storylines I'll follow.   

• It comes down to the CFP - which teams will be in. 
• What will the swan song be for Texas, Oklahoma, USC, and UCLA as they say goodbye to their conferences? 
• Will the entire season seem like a wake / funeral for the Pac-12? 
• What will the notable first year head coaches do?  e.g. Colorado, Nebraska, and Wisconsin?
• Will Michigan and OSU reach The Game with unblemished records?

Defense in the offensive oriented teams you noted.  Whether Knowles will actually do anything with the D in Columbus - and, there are really two tests before The Game - ND and PSU, specifically.  I don't expect much from TN, USC, or UNC.

Decline for Clemson / Bama.   I think Clemson caught lightning in a bottle with their string of QB's - and, benefit from a weak ACC.   Bama - still a very deep and talented roster - but, with an unknown QB and former ND OC calling the plays in Tuscaloosa.   I think LSU challenges Bama for the SEC West - and, will defeat the Tide in Tuscaloosa when they play.

Buying hype.  I'll take LSU over FSU.  And, it's a toss up regarding OSU and PSU.  I just don't think Franklin / PSU can put it all together - so, it's the Buckeyes by default. 

I'll take the over on Georgia and think they go undefeated through the regular season. 

The B1G West?   It's up for grabs - any team can win.  Iowa will have a pulse on offense - and, Fickell knows what he's doing in Madison.   The key for the Badgers is - a first year offensive scheme and how quickly they'll be able to absorb and execute it.

A Michigan concern?   Maintaining focus - avoiding the rat poison - leading / winning decisively when possible so the 2's, 3's, and 4's get as many game reps as possible.

Gene Smith's retirement?   Means nothing.   I hope he'll have a decision to make regarding a head coaching position on November 26th - or, whether he'll kick the can down the road and have his successor decide.

Well, since you asked...

I'm honestly quite fascinated by the Big Ten West this year, and if the coaching changes at Nebraska and Wisconsin show immediate, substantial payoffs in the W column. Barring key injuries, I expect Nebraska to be a lot better and Wisky's offense to be a problem for folks especially as the season goes on and they get better through game reps. Then add a slightly less inept offense from Iowa, a solid Minnesota, and Illinois going into its third year of its Bielemaization and I think the BTW will be the strongest and most fun to watch as it's been in a while. 

With UGA's schedule, I'd take the over.

I buy the FSU and LSU hype more than the others, especially PSU. Sure Allar played in like 10 games, but he's still a first-year starter in an elite league with very little on-field experience. I found it telling that Franklin wouldn't even let Allar play any significant time in the (essentially meaningless) Rose Bowl last year.

Alabama will be fine, but could lose 2 or three games this year with their QB situation. IMO, perhaps Clemson is on the decline though in the very, very weak ACC it could end up with only a loss or two, still win the ACC, and somehow sneak into the CFP.

My only worry is somehow our tackles arent what we are expecting and JJ takes a Cade 2022 like beating early. 

USC and Tennessee are going to light it up.  When you score 50 you just need a couple stops. USC was damn lucky last year with turnovers though. 

Wisconsin will be the best offense in the west with the usual Wisconsin D. Might not translate to 10 wins but the perfect recipe for a key upset, looking at you OSU.

Recruiting domination by Bama, Georgia, and to a lesser extent OSU gives us this one last window with our near perfect (for U of M standards) roster to take it all. Going forward we can make the playoffs easily but the recruiting divide is like expecting the Lions to win if they lost their first and second round drafts picks every year. Its just impossible if Green Bay and Minnesota get to double up their picks in those rounds. We need to get high 4 to 5 stars at key positions yearly.

The playoff committee is going to have some fun with deciding on a 4 loss LSU or a 1 loss Washington St in 2024. The PAC 4 should add the 8 best from the MWC and move on. Still would be some great football. 

I don't trust any Bama decline yet. i think they had a "bad" year for them (still top 10), playing in way more close games than usual. But one year doesn't make a decline, especially when it's top 10.

Clemson on the other hand...very likely may win the ACC, but are they really at the level of, say, Ohio State?

I think OSU has two options at QB and a ton of guys to throw the ball to - but it all starts up front. We'll see how OSU does in replacing a few NFL guys up front. PSU? I don't think the new QB is their savior that'll get them over the hump - at least this year. I guess I'm buying OSU more but skeptically.

Over. UGA's schedule is as light as M outside of their 9 power 5 games - and with UT instead of PSU and OSU, their schedule looks even lighter. Tennessee is on the road, but that's their only test all year.

I think people are underrating Bielema and Illinois out west. Year 1 coaches I'm skeptical of, even in the transfer era, and especially when they walked into a tire fire like Rhule. Purdue isn't a tire fire but is replacing a lot of contributors. I think Iowa doesn't have the line play of year's past, which is unfortunate for Cade (and All). Minnesota is also replacing just too much - I think it comes down to Illinois and Iowa, and Bielema is more competent than Ferentz.

Biggest concern for me - November is a sudden ramp up. Possibly our 4 toughest games are to end the season. Maryland looks like a sneaky good team in the trappiest of trap games. Also, staying focused early, @minny and @NU - two good not great teams we should be able to out-talent if we stay sharp and focused.

Basically, I'm forever a worried fan.

Two other storylines this year.

When will the rumors of Saban's retirement really escalate and become "daily news" for ESPN?

What head coaching vacancies will Urban Meyer's name be associated with?   I would place a friendly wager that A&M will be the school - IF - their donor community can stomach the cost of Fisher's buyout.

1. OSU will have the best defensive of the four teams listed. Whether it can stand up to us mashing them in the face or they have to go to a completely irresponsible scheme like last year is still yet to be determined.

2. This will technically be Bama's most talented team according to recruiting rankings. Their problem is they have major question marks at QB. Expect them to play similar to how they did pre CFP. Run the ball and play defense.

Clemson feels like they are on a slight decline but they are also favored in every game right now on their schedule. 

3.OSU and LSU. 

PSU is banking on Drew Allar, and O line that has never meshed well together, and replacing some great secondary pieces. 

FSU six game win streak last year came against teams who all had losing records. They are an improved team, but I don't think they are a top 10 team.

4.Over. They're schedule is pretty light. If you take the under, you heavily believe in Joe Milton and Tennessee, but you'll need Georgia be upset again somewhere on that schedule. Ole Miss, South Carolina, and Kentucky would be the other most likely spots. All three of those games are in Athens, Georgia. Or, have them lose one, plus lose in the SEC championship game and their bowl game. Or, have them lose one and be a 1 loss team that doesn't make the SEC championship and also loses their bowl game.

5. I like Iowa. A lot less change and if their offense even has the semblance of a pulse, they could get to double digit wins. Nebraska is a complete wildcard. 

6. JJ injury. Or, that our three toughest games are our last three games. 

7.No. 

"What's your biggest concern for this Michigan team, that isn't position specific?"

After beating OSU for the conference championship, it's the same thing it is most seasons: winning a damn post-season game against a non-conference team.

Since 2003, we're 4-12 in bowl games. That's terrible.

OSU is a cut above the other 3 teams in terms of overall defensive talent; they weren't great but they still had the 23rd-ranked defense last year and didn't have some crazy TO margin like USC to really hold them up.  Also, I'm not sold Tennessee is going to be an offensive juggernaut this year like they were last season; Milton isn't the same QB as Hooker and they lost a ton on offense.  They'll be a really good offense but I think they'll take a step back from melt-your-face-off they were last season.

Bama is probably in a slight decline but that's still top-3; their offense really wasn't that good last year and was mostly held up by Young and Gibbs and I don't think Tommy Rees changes the math for them.  Clemson absolutely feels like a team that is down a peg from their heights; they still have a good defense but that offense has been mediocre for a while and I doubt it'll make huge strides under a new QB and without elite playmakers.  The ACC is still mediocre so they might win it but it'll be with another 2-3 losses.

OSU hype is real; they made the playoffs last year and nearly beat Georgia.  PSU feels like a lot of wishcasting.  They have the talent but they're also rolling in a new QB and their defensive line wasn't great last year and then lost some guys.  Still feels like a team that'll have trouble against the better squads on the schedule.  

I have no real read on LSU or FSU but FSU did that thing where they won a bunch of games they were supposed to and also lost to basically anyone who was good on their schedule.  They beat LSU because of a missed PAT then lost to the only 3 ranked teams they saw in conference, 2 at home.  They were close losses but their best win in conference was...Louisville?  And then they got to play a 6-6 OU team in the bowl game that was super checked out.  They'll be good this year because they have more talent than basically anyone not named Clemson in the conference but people talking about them as a playoff contender feels like an overreaction.  They don't really play anyone outside of Clemson and LSU so I guess if they split with them and then go undefeated they have a chance but I'm still not sold this is a team that'll be a contender this year.

Georgia literally plays 1 team that is ranked to start this year and that's UT 10.  Michigan's much-derided schedule has them facing two ranked teams, both top-8 outfits.  So yeah, feels like they'll be undefeated or, at worst, have 1 loss.

Iowa will be better offensively and still have an elite defense.  Cade will be a much better QB than they've had recently and that'll be enough to win the West unless Minnesota or Wisconsin really surprise me.  

Biggest concern with UM is injuries and the back-loaded part of the schedule.  I know I shit on PSU earlier but playing on the road there will be tough and that's basically a month after they play OSU.  That's the big home game and they'll be amped.  Also, feels like we might have some issues in terms of who gets the ball on offense; I don't love that Edwards is talking about being one of the great RBs when Corum is clearly #1 on the depth chart, as that could lead to some chirping about carries and touches.  And as always, injuries are a concern at spots.

The Pac-12 is going to be bananas this year. It was already going to be fun with the offenses, but the level of hate facing USC/UCLA and Oregon/Washington will be fun to watch. Oh, and Deion has someone become like the third or fourth important storyline out west.

Ohio States defense isn't bad like those other teams you mentioned but they do significantly underachieve relative to the talent they have on the defensive side which is pretty much equal to what Georgia has but the results are obviously much different.

Bama's biggest concern this year appears to be at QB but they have done just fine in the past with some pretty "meh" QB's so I think they will be fine. Clemson does appear to be on a downward trend but because they play in such a mediocre league it doesn't fully show.

OSU will be just fine at QB and probably lose at most one game. I am still in wait-and-see mode with PSU and their QB. I think both LSU and FSU will be pretty darn good this season but I guess I would favor LSU.

Take the under on Georgia at 11.5 wins. They have to go undefeated to win that bet and that is always tough to do. The game at Tennessee is the most likely loss but there are a few other upset possibilities present IMO.

Big Ten West: I like Wisconsin as they have the most advantageous conference schedule of the legitimate contenders in the West.

Biggest concern for UM: getting a consistent organic pass rush.

Gene Smith: *shrug*

* I think Iowa's offense will be much improved, even with the same OC. I think their QB will be a difference maker.

* My biggest Michigan concern is, will Junior Colson cut down on the brain farts?

My biggest Michigan concern this year is the offensive gameplan. We have the talent and experience to win it all, and the coaching staff has set us up to beat OSU and make the playoff again. Elite quarterbacking wins championships in this era, and we probably won't be able to pound the rock against Georgia. The coaches had to be forced to put the game in JJ's hands against TCU only after we fell behind and TCU continued their insanely irresponsible defense. I trust JJ's talent, but I'm not sure if Harbaugh and Moore will put him in the right position to succeed. 

On a positive note, I'm fired up to watch Will Johnson making #2 proud and Mike Sainristil breaking Ohio's hearts once again.

My Michigan concern is that we continue to treat the forward pass as something to be avoided whenever possible and piss away a chance at a championship because of it.