No impact from allegations on Michigan winning the CFP / JJ winning the Heisman
My first thought about hearing the new Connor Stallions allegations is that Vegas will be the first place you will see whether there is a threat of the NCAA doing something "in season" and whether the broader CFB community will be taking this seriously.
Given that there are tens of millions of USD at stake and the folks in charge of the top betting sites are highly connected to the conferences, networks and schools, this is as good of a barometer as you will find out there.
Here are three of the most obvious lines (as at 5:09 EDT):
1. Michigan +225 to win the Championship (#1 in the country)
2. Michigan -115 to with the B1G, obviously #1 in the conference
3. JJ is +240 to with the Heisman, actually improved slightly from +250 yesterday
So far, Vegas doesn't care about this - nor do they think that Michigan was gaining much, if any, competitive advantage from whatever Stallions was doing. I would suggest continuing to track this.
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:34 PM ^
The line for the MSU game actually increased by a point after the story broke
But I dont think this necessarily matters and could in fact make things look worse if Vegas does something like refunds bettors who voted on Michigan. This is only if the investigation goes quick and the CFB playoff committee doesnt allow Michigan in. Vegas would potentially be under legal pressure to refund
October 23rd, 2023 at 6:06 PM ^
My point has nothing to do with Vegas refunding or not refunding Michigan bets. My point is that the line spreads would be moving drastically if the markets believed that this story was going to hurt Michigan (either directly like a disqualification or indirectly because they are losing the Stallions advantage).
OSU would be a HUGE favorite to win the B1G and the line would already be moving. That is not to say that a future disclosure couldn't change the dynamics - just from where we are right now.
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:42 PM ^
And there should be no impact on this season... imagine cancelling Michigan and then this proves to be a nothing burger.
What is however damaging is the impact this has on recruits, players, and Harbaugh's contract.
October 23rd, 2023 at 6:07 PM ^
...and that is the crux of it. The timing was right when they were talking about extending Harbaugh's contract. THAT is why this broke when it did. Remember OSU claims they knew about this last year. This was a timed hit job.
And what sucks are the players who may be impacted.
October 23rd, 2023 at 10:51 PM ^
This is it right here, the heads at OSU knew about this but were waiting for Harbaugh to get closer to an extension to try and keep him out of being at UM. Best thing for Ono to do would be to give him the extension now anyway.
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:46 PM ^
Given the pursuit of Michigan twice now over minutiae and (leaking and issuing statements) in total violation of their own rules and you trust these southern goobers to play by rules they already selectively throw out and administer while displaying cloying angst in their single minded vendetta.
Can Tom Mars represent Harbaugh, the University and Stalions in a defamation case given the effect of the negative news on all manner of the lives and operations of these targeted parties?
If Ryan Day advance falsely instigates a debilitating investigation of no actual wrongdoing on a fellow NCAA member opponent that he is going to play is that an unfair means of gaining advantage and degrading possible votes on in season and post season awards and matchups?
And if the whole college system is corrupt isn't that an indictment of US society as a whole? Well, Jim Harbaugh is not going to stand by while you badmouth the United Sates of America!
October 23rd, 2023 at 6:03 PM ^
Up voted due to the Animal House reference
October 23rd, 2023 at 6:06 PM ^
This day and age with all the video, how bad is this,
October 23rd, 2023 at 6:08 PM ^
The only thing the Vegas lines indicate are the vast network of UM alumni and supporters willing to put money behind their fandom.
October 23rd, 2023 at 6:13 PM ^
That is stupid. OSU, Georgia, Bama, ND, etc... have fan bases just as big as Michigan!
October 23rd, 2023 at 6:58 PM ^
You are now in the running for the dumbest take on the internet today. Well done!
October 23rd, 2023 at 6:41 PM ^
If Vegas opens up betting for [vacated] then things might change
October 23rd, 2023 at 6:45 PM ^
OSU B1G champ line is a proxy for that line
October 23rd, 2023 at 6:46 PM ^
The Michigan insider on sports radio wouldn't rule out the NCAA allowing UofM to continue and finish the season before vacating a title.
October 23rd, 2023 at 7:10 PM ^
Frankly if you read anything into the MSU game this might galvanize the current team more, a bunch of 18-23 guys who probably take offense to the idea that their wins are only due to a low level staffers scheme. May be an additional motivator for them to win decisively
October 24th, 2023 at 9:54 AM ^
Thats what I said. This will only throw more wood and gasoline on the fire that the team already had going. They were already on a mission and now they're pissed off.