Momentum around a Winter B10 Football Season
Lots of smoke going around about a Winter Big 10 Football season.
"The Smoke" Summary: Games would start in early January, and they'd play anywhere from 6-10 games. End in March. Games would be played indoors at a range of different facilities in the Big Ten footprint. Multiple coaches, including Ryan Day and James Franklin, have said a winter season is preferred to spring. We are also hearing this from all levels: Penn State's AD has brought up a Winter season, and a Chancellor at Nebraska has stated that there is momentum amongst University Presidents around a winter season. Also, if you "read between the lines" from statements from Gene Smith and Kevin Warren, they emphasized it was a postponement (and not a cancellation), and that they will be forming a committee to return to competition as soon as possible.
Articles:
https://www.si.com/college/ohiostate/football/big-ten-considering-january-start-for-football
My Opinion: I would much prefer a Winter season to a Spring Season. One, it's better for the players, as they get more rest between seasons. Two: its closer than spring! I'm sure we all want to see Michigan play as soon as possible.
My hope would be that the college football playoff would delay playing until Mid March, to make our season and everyone else's season as legitimate as possible. This would allow us to crown a true college football champion.
(My apologies for the double diary/mgoboard post...the diary post was unintended. Mods feel free to delete the diary duplicate post).
August 20th, 2020 at 4:07 PM ^
What's your number then?
Were you wearing a mask your whole life before Covid? I'm guessing not. Why? It's because you have a threshold at which you're ok with people dying.
I'd say that's pretty thought provoking. If it's rage inducing... well, can't help you there. Sounds like I just hit a nerve.
It's fine to blast my number. Maybe 1 million is indeed too high. 400,000? 300,000? But provide one of your own. How many people are ok to die before you take action? If Covid was half as deadly as it is, would you still mandate masks? Would you still socially distance? Would you cancel football? If these aren't thought provoking questions.... sounds like this isn't the right board for you. This is what makes this Michigan board special - intelligent conversation and debate. Try Red Cedar.
August 20th, 2020 at 7:43 PM ^
We passed "my number" back in the spring, whatever that number may have been.
And no, I do not find asking someone if they wore a mask prior to covid as some kind of "gotcha" question to be in any way thought provoking. Nauseating? Yes. Profoundly ignorant? Certainly.
When you're the only one who recognizes your own "intelligence", maybe it's time to take a hard look in the mirror. You ask me "if the virus were half as deadly, would I still mandate masks"? It just continues to show your complete lack of understanding. For the 10,000th time this has been said on this here board (of which I have been a part since haloscan and comment jacking) it isn't just about how deadly it is. It's how contagious it is, which combined with being pretty lethal, added to an extremely ignorant population and our current president, gets us where we are today.
There's a whole lot more nuance to all of this than any of the people on "your side" of this argument ever want to address. It's all just smokescreens, dishonest arguments, and goal post moving. It's very childish, and is helping exactly nobody. This is real. It's happening.
August 20th, 2020 at 12:51 PM ^
How about not drawing the line during the first year of a novel virus? Maybe after we have some various vaccines available for testing? Maybe the loss of a family member or friend would help you put things in perspective.
August 20th, 2020 at 12:54 PM ^
This guy just said his line of taking this serious is One Million deaths.
August 20th, 2020 at 1:13 PM ^
Holy shit, 1 million deaths is your line? That'd be like the IIHS/NHTSA saying "eh, we're cool with a million people dying in auto crashes before we'd suggest things like seatbelts, airbags, and crash testing."
The US overall annual death rate was about 850-900 per 100k people pre-COVID, so just under 3 million total deaths per year. And you're suggesting to increase that by 33% before you'd take this seriously. Do you understand how crazy you sound?
August 20th, 2020 at 1:36 PM ^
What's your line?
And my line of 1 million is "to start shutting down aspects of the country." Didn't say it wasn't serious, or shouldn't be addressed. The aspects I'm referring to are:
> Mask mandates in public places (private organizations and businesses should do what they want)
> Stay at home mandates.
> Closing of public schools.
> Other public closings.
There are certainly measures that can be taken to address the situation, but no, I wouldn't go to the level our country has at this point for this virus. It's just not deadly enough IMO. But hey, I can be convinced to lower my number. If I said 400,000 instead, would that be better? If not, I ask again.... where's your line?
August 20th, 2020 at 3:08 PM ^
Holy shit you're a fucking idiot. One million deaths before your dumb ass wears a mask?
My number is one...it's you...you're the one. Actually it's everybody who thinks like you, you all can kindly fuck off and die and make the world a much better place...for the greater good.
August 20th, 2020 at 4:16 PM ^
So, for real, how many deaths before you'd wear a mask? If Covid was half as deadly as it is, would you wear one?
One person in this thread has had the courage to reply with their number. Looking for two...
August 20th, 2020 at 1:17 PM ^
One dead player or coach is a tragedy.
Anything more than that is a statistic.
August 20th, 2020 at 1:20 PM ^
1,000,000 deaths?
Cancer is pretty bad isn't it? Wouldn't it be great if we cured cancer? Everyone knows someone with cancer.
600,000 people die from ALL cancers per year in the US. So for every person you know who dies of cancer, 2 dies of COVID.
Or out of hospital cardiac arrest (e.g., someone "dropping dead" of a heart attack at home). Pretty bad isn't it, While you may not know someone that it happened to this year, I'm sure everyone as a connection to this type of event. Well, about 300,000 OH-cardiac arrest deaths per year... so again...
This is why people are horrified by the 200,000+ covid deaths we will have this year in the US...it is the same scale as all deaths from cancer or sudden cardiac death...
August 20th, 2020 at 2:13 PM ^
Whats your "line" on the number of deaths in your family that you'd find acceptable before taking it seriously?
August 20th, 2020 at 4:22 PM ^
Probably about a 1% chance of death, which is about 5 times the current mortality rate of Covid 19.
So, yeah, to answer your question: If a member of my family had > 1% chance of risk from dying from the disease.
August 20th, 2020 at 12:00 PM ^
I've read promising T Cell memory research from Sweden (and by read had a journalist translate the meaning of the study). Could really help if we can have the T cells "remember" the virus and even if one gets infected, the t cells will go to work preventing sickness. Anyway, i say that to say, hopefully by Winter we have some good news regarding treatment. Then I can ignore all viral science and watch my favorite team take on the big ten!
Stay safe everyone!
August 20th, 2020 at 12:03 PM ^
0% chance of this happening.
August 20th, 2020 at 1:07 PM ^
To (seriously) claim 0% chance of anything happening is a bit ridiculous. Especially when that is almost 5 months from now.
To conclude, I disagree. Probably closer to 30-40% based upon a structure they could implement that would reduce risk similar to what professional sports are able to do but still allow for ongoing education. Then again our opinions don't matter.
If the other conferences actually go forward with a season, the chances of a B10 winter season go up due to increased pressure. If they postpone themselves, chances will go down.
Something you need to consider - People down South generally do not take the risks of the virus as seriously as the general consensus on this board. They see the world differently. They will have an influence on what happens, so that needs to be taken into perspective.
August 20th, 2020 at 3:37 PM ^
Right. "People down South generally do not take the risks of the virus as seriously." This is the problem. It's not a perspective to take into account. It's refusal to believe reality. Did we learn nothing in the last 5 or 6 months? The people down south laughed when the problem was just for liberals up north. The masks were for pussies. Shutting down bars? Ridiculous. And look what happened to them.
Just because people plug their ears and say they will go on with their normal activities, doesn't mean it's something that responsible people should consider as "just a different opinion."
August 20th, 2020 at 4:02 PM ^
I'm unlikely to convince you of my point, but let me at least give it a shot:
I don't think that the people in the south are not taking this as seriously. I think that many question whether the way that we are dealing with it - closing down, cancelling school, cancelling large aspects of society - are worth the bang for the buck (for lack of a better term).
In many northeast states, the response was a strict lockdown when the virus hit. In those states, the curve all looks identical. Spike in cases, followed by a somewhat slow and steady decline. Many assume that the decline is the result of the lock down measures.
Here is NY's curve: https://www.google.com/search?q=new+york+covid+stats&rlz=1C1CHBF_enUS858US858&oq=new+york+covid+sta&aqs=chrome.0.0l8.2815j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
They all look almost identical.
Now let's look at some of those states that have been criticized widely as not taking this seriously:
What you see is that the curves look almost identical, despite the fact that the latter three states have largely not locked down much.
So much of the debate relating to COVID has gotten swept up in politics and cultural divides. It's become democrats trying to prove that republicans are a bunch of reckless hillbillies who have no social conscience and republicans trying to prove that democrats are a bunch of conspirators aimed at destroying society and unseating the president through a hoax virus. Neither is true. While it's easy to get swept up in that line of thinking, what is holding the country back more than anything is that line of thinking. If everyone agreed to examine the data with an open mind and then try to come up with a solution not dictated by hysterical politicians on both sides of the aisle or influenced by media-induced panic, we might be able to see through all of the bullshit surrounding this disease and make better choices. For example, who knows how much masks work? They almost certainly do not cause harm, and it stands to reason that they do something to help cut the spread. Since the relative downside (minor inconvenience) is so small, why can't we all agree to wear them? At worst, we are wasting time, but at most, we could curtail this thing sharply. Likewise, from the data above, perhaps we can have a more nuanced discussion of the lock down approach and acknowledge that it might not be the best way to proceed as a blanket rule, especially when taking into account who is most at risk from COVID, So, while it may not make sense to pack stadiums with fans, perhaps allowing young athletes to play the games (after undergoing thorough medical screenings). Unfortunately, these discussions do not happen in this current climate. Everyone is staunchly in one camp or the other when, as always, there is a middle ground that likely is the best approach.
August 20th, 2020 at 4:18 PM ^
I will say, this has been one of your more reasoned posts. I don't agree with some of it at all, but the first couple sentences of your last paragraph are definitely true. Thing is, one side is outright lying while the other does the usual "bend reality" routine.
August 20th, 2020 at 4:40 PM ^
Thanks, Timmaay. I know we are on opposite sides of this. I don't think that either side is outright lying, but rather focusing on different aspects of the disease. Taking out the extremes of my side (the "hoax", "Gates is going to implant us with microchips" and "we will all be enslaved by the big liberal machine"), I think that many who feel as I do don't dispute the severity of COVID. Rather, we disagree with the manner in which the government is responding. We question the effectiveness of lock downs, and also want to balance the prevention measures against the harm that those same measures cause.
August 20th, 2020 at 8:32 PM ^
I can understand questioning the response, for sure. What I can't understand, or accept is when people misrepresent things to "win" an argument, or deny and gloss over verifiable data. I'm not saying you're doing this, just making a broad statement.
August 20th, 2020 at 4:36 PM ^
Darko - I live 'down south'... please tell me what exactly happened to us? As far as I can tell, we have been able to enjoy our lives with some restrictions but please, I would love to hear the true story from someone that doesn't live in the south.
August 20th, 2020 at 12:05 PM ^
It makes the most sense to plan for a season in January. Whether they can pull it off will depend a lot on what they learn from the attempts to play this fall. A spring season would mean fewer possible games and more players skipping it.
I think there has probably been some confusion about the terminology up until now. For a lot of schools, their spring semester starts in January.
August 20th, 2020 at 12:10 PM ^
Other than someone deciding to finally maybe come up with a plan, what will be different in January as far as the virus is concerned?
August 20th, 2020 at 12:23 PM ^
Nobody knows, yet - so you make plans according to best case/worst case scenarios. It makes sense to be ready to play, if circumstances say it's okay to play. You can't get these stadiums and hotel rooms onboard in a couple of days. I mean, this isn't you taking your GF on an impromptu weekender to Vegas...
August 20th, 2020 at 12:40 PM ^
Why didn't they do any of this for the fall then?
August 20th, 2020 at 12:52 PM ^
$1000 question, right there...
August 20th, 2020 at 1:00 PM ^
Cash only please.
August 20th, 2020 at 2:53 PM ^
Hope springs eternal and sometimes it screws you. Hindsight is 20/20. Learnings continue to evolve-we have a lot to learn.
August 20th, 2020 at 12:26 PM ^
As far as the virus is concerned? Nothing. There will likely be a new President Elect, and it wouldn't surprise me if "science" goes out the window and "get back to normal" becomes the standard around that time.
August 20th, 2020 at 12:39 PM ^
Some may argue that it is under the existing president that science has gone out the window and that a different president would in fact value science more.
August 20th, 2020 at 12:52 PM ^
Or there would be a perception that the next President values science more and therefore the reporting focus will shift.
August 20th, 2020 at 1:48 PM ^
It’s pretty hard imagining a world leader who values science less than the orange clown who’s largely responsible for this entire clusterfuck. My kids (7 and 6) value science more than our dear leader; it’s not exactly a high bar
August 20th, 2020 at 2:41 PM ^
I valued science very much at that age too. In fact I am still trying to save the world from the inevitability of the advancing glaciers, extinction of bald eagles and acid rain to this day.
Nearly every thing I learned about science as a kid has been invalidated over the last 40 years. Science is ever evolving theory and should be presented that way, rather than The One Truth.
August 20th, 2020 at 4:19 PM ^
I don't even disagree with that. But that is not reason to deny the evidence gained to date simply because you don't want it to be true.
August 20th, 2020 at 2:36 PM ^
It's funny, I forget some people really believe "their sides" politicians believe what they say. Just because the left is better at adding misleading factoids into their statements, doesn't make them any more the truth than the current President's whoppers.
I'm sure the President Elect will ensure he hires the appropriate scientists so that "the science" matches up appropriately with whatever decision he makes.
August 20th, 2020 at 12:40 PM ^
Will that be everywhere or just the US?
August 20th, 2020 at 12:13 PM ^
My hope would be that the college football playoff would delay playing until Mid March, to make our season and everyone else's season as legitimate as possible. This would allow us to crown a true college football champion.
So you think ACC, BIG12 and SEC are going to start their season next month, finish said season before the New Year and then come back in March to play college football playoff games?
August 20th, 2020 at 12:34 PM ^
I don't know how viable this is but I'm happy they're thinking about the situation. Of course, if people just accepted that college athletes weren't "regular" students and were allowed to be treated as the professional-ish role they play in this billion-dollar enterprise, it would be easier.
August 20th, 2020 at 12:37 PM ^
Winter season is fine but it needs a coherent, well thought out plan. Preferably the plan is agreed upon in the next few weeks and released to the public. And all the P5 conferences should agree to said plan so we don't have a half-assed season as the SEC, ACC and Big 12 are planning right now for fall.
August 20th, 2020 at 12:59 PM ^
Are they assuming every school will have cancelled in-person classes by then?
August 20th, 2020 at 3:23 PM ^
The sooner we can get regular students off campus and away from the football players the sooner the football players can start playing football!
(I'm sure this is part of the thinking at many big-time football schools)
August 20th, 2020 at 1:01 PM ^
Start in December. Have a couple non-conference games in November. Finish a little earlier.
August 20th, 2020 at 1:03 PM ^
There is no guaranteed Covid will be solved by next August either. At some point people will have to either go back to some type of normal or fundamentally re-create society.
A vaccine will probably be available by Jan. I suspect it will be made available to all athletes and entertainers before most of America does.
If so a ten week season is possible. There are 13 weeks between Jan and March. Plenty of time to fit in a ten game season.
August 20th, 2020 at 1:06 PM ^
I mean, sure. It makes sense to have a good plan B so it's good they're working on something. Still not looking very likely things will be better in only 4 months. Back in April people were hoping everything would be good for football and here we are
August 20th, 2020 at 1:47 PM ^
We would finally see football played at Ford Field in late January.
August 20th, 2020 at 2:36 PM ^
MSU sees football at Ford Field in the winter all the time . . .
August 20th, 2020 at 2:35 PM ^
So . . . if you are going to do this, then why not just do it in the fall? What will be different in January 2021 vs. October 2020?
Whatever is not safe in October 2020 will not suddenly become magically safe in January 2021.
This is a face-saving move because the Big Ten jumped the gun too early on cancelling the season, and the SEC/Big12/ACC surprised them by not following along.
They would like a do-over and this is as close as they can come.
August 20th, 2020 at 3:49 PM ^
Well, you just might have a first vaccine. You will have even more treatment knowledge leading to even less hospitalizations. The winter cold. Even more prophylactic knowledge gained by then. And, You may even have a nasal prophylactic spray by then. Or things are worse (prob not).
August 20th, 2020 at 4:59 PM ^
That's a big lift in 3-4 months. It's not likely. Maybe by March-April. Maybe.
An announced vaccine does not mean that regular people are going to get it right away . . . not even the demi-gods that are college football players.