Midseason expectations reset

Wins vs NW, Maryland, Indiana. 
 

toss up MSU, PSU

loss OSU.

way better than I thought we would be, I thought Wisconsin and Washington would be L’s.

I’ll raise my projection as soon as we are at 8 wins.

I can still see 2 losses between MSU/PSU/OSU. NW is terrible, Indiana has been struggling all year, and Maryland looks like the wheels have completely come off.

Call it stockholm syndrome or something else, but MSU has good WRs and are willing to just throw shit up to them. I trust Dax, I still don't trust Green/Gray/Turner. Ross/NHG/Colson are also great when they can go downhill and attack, but Nebraska showed they are exploitable with misdirection, which MSU will employ. Thorne is at least stable and mobile enough to avoid Ojabo and Hutchinson from ripping out his rib cage and Walker is very talented. The defense is solid as well, if not kind of unremarkable at spots.

PSU a lot depends on Clifford's health. If he can play, they have a shot because Doctson is scary and their defense is pretty solid. Being a road game also doesn't help

I will not pick them to beat OSU until the Sunday after they beat them. That's just how it is.

So, depending on how some things go, the floor should be 9-3 and the ceiling 11-1, but I'd be comfortable picking them to win 1 of MSU/PSU so go with 10-2.

Most importantly, WIN THE BYE WEEK!

I don't like looking too forward but the UM-MSU game could be something this year with both teams ranked in the Top Ten. How often has that happened?

I thought we would win a bunch of games and lose a few.

I now think we not only will lose every upcoming game, we have actually lost all the games we have played, and will continue to do so until JJ McCarthy topples the regime and saves us. The losses we have already suffered will also be retroactively changed to wins. There's nothing this kid won't do.

And there is nothing poor Macnamara can do or has done.

I figure MSU and Penn State are toss-ups, where OSU is about 1 in 4.

So 10-2 is a realistic target, with the most realistic range being 9-3 to 11-1.

Harbaugh has done a good job of changing things up.  That isn’t generally easy to do.

Buckle up for this second half of the season with road games at E Lansing and then Happy Valley. This will require much better QB play for the Maize and Blue. Sorry, but Cade needs to hit his WR in stride like we are seeing Thorne do for the Spartans. Clifford's injury is a wild card and will depend on how soon he is able to return to the field. Those two QBs along could make or break their teams fortunes against Michigan. 

QB play could be this team's downfall despite better WR & TE plays as well as great RB (Haskins and Corum) against MSU, PSU and OSU. Think bout it, if Michigan had an Adrian Martinez at QB, how good could this team be? It's great to be 6 and 0 and having played two tough road games. Now they have been tested to come from behind late in the game and still win. I am optimistic on one hand but on the other, even better competition will require better QB play for our guys. I am behind Cade as QB1 and will hope his game improves. We'll know soon enough.

Yes.  Many good points made on this thread.  Long way to go this season, one week at a time.  Like the way this team competes with composure, and plays hard.   Wins at MSU and PSU will be a tough ask.  That said, it seems nice things will be available to Michigan fans this holiday season.  This team has proven itself and I really enjoy supporting and pulling for them. 

Coming into the season, here's how I viewed the schedule:

WMU - win
Washington - tossup
NIU - win
Rutgers - win
@Wisconsin - likely loss
@Nebraska - likely win
Northwestern - win
@MSU - tossup
Indiana - tossup to likely loss
@PSU - likely loss
@Maryland - tossup
OSU - likely loss

That shows a floor of about 6-6, with a ceiling around 9-3.

Based on Michigan's performance to date, and what we know now about the competition, here's how I view the rest of the schedule:

Northwestern - win
@MSU - tossup
Indiana - likely win
@PSU - tossup (maybe likely win if Clifford is still out?)
@Maryland - likely win
OSU - tossup

That's 3 likely wins and 3 tossups. Puts the floor at 9-3, with 10-2 not a crazy reach. The MSU game will be massive.

If we go 2 and 1 against MSU, Penn State and OSU, the season exceeds my expectations by a lot.  1 and 2 against those teams would still be a good season by any reasonable measure especially if the win is against OSU.

Oops

I’m still thinking 9-3, maybe 10-2.  even as well as we’ve played I think we lose to osu and PSU. Maybe even MSU

I’d say 9-3. I think right now we have a better chance against psu than msu, I didn’t think I’d say that at the beginning of the season. Msu is due for a stinker but we are gonna have to play almost perfect to beat them. Ugh. 

"The offense is about what I expected."

I don't get this, at all!  This offense has looked fantastic!  Nothing at all like previous seasons - it's organized, prepared, fast, and efficient!  The play calls have complimented each other, with a clear purpose.  Game plans don't change and haven't gone alt-conservative in tough situations - like they have since 1969.  This is most decidedly NOT the offense I expected to see - it is FAR better!  

The defense has also been better than I expected, but I thought it would be okay.  Overall, this team is a much, much better version of what we've seen from previous years.  I mean, it isn't even close!

For me: winning 2 of 3 from PSU, MSU, OSU and winning the other games is a best case scenario. But anybody *projecting* a win over OSU based on the current form of both teams & recent history would be bonkers IMO.

How do so many people have OSU a tossup? If we played them next week they would be favored by at least 2 touchdowns.

Preseason I figured 6-7 wins, with a 95% CI of 3-10 wins. After the first six results, I'd say more like 10-11 (8-12). Obviously I'm really happy to have been wrong.

Remaining games:

• Northwestern: If this is a loss, the football gods truly hate us.
• MSU: They look solid, but I don't know if they've actually played anyone better than Nebraska and Nebraska outplayed them in EL. Hard to say. Tucker will probably have a lot of BS saved for us. Tossup.
• IU: They're broken. Should be a win.
• PSU: If Clifford is out, should be a win. If not, who the hell knows? Tossup.
• Maryland: Yes, they have taken their usual hilarious October nosedive, but getting wrecked by OSU is something everyone can relate to. Likely win, but also can be dangerous. Trap game, obviously.
• OSU: They seem to have figured out their problems, predictably. I love what Michigan has done so far, but that's in the context of a team that has had real problems for a few years. It's still not, to me, a better situation than "feisty 11-1 B1G West team that gets rolled in the championship," and unfortunately we're in the East. Don't see much probability of a win here. (Hope I'm wrong again!)

Obviously a lot can happen in terms of injuries for any team. If Walker goes out for MSU, that would be a big problem; some for us with a few players I won't name for jinx reasons. My question is what are the possible areas where U-M can take a step forward? Maybe the DL gains confidence, the LBs gain experience, WRs get coached up better in terms of routes and contests? McCarthy apotheosis? Feels like the CBs basically are who they're going to be at this point.

Go to Indy or Harbaugh should be fired.

Among the many reality tendrils of the multiverse, we are in an interesting football universe.

America's pro college team, Alabama, lost to an unranked opponent.  The incident was ruled Force Majeure and so not covered on Saban's Aflac umbrella policy.

Clemson went retro for some big-time Clemsoning.  Media sleuths captured this video of Dabo Swinney:

Iowa is ranked #2 in the nation.

Ohio State has had some delays in building this year's Death Star.  Maybe the thermal exhaust port isn't as squared away as usual.  Here's hoping.

Most importantly, the mighty Wolverines are undefeated and have gutted out a couple of nice road wins, leaving only lesser scraps for the low-morale contingent to feed upon.

I don't know. Our schedule has broken really nicely. Unless I'm mistaken, we've played one team with a record above .500 -- and that was Rutgers (and we almost lost). I think we've benefited from a lot of teams (Washington and Wisconsin, at least) being worse than we expected.

You can only play the teams on your schedule, of course. And that'll change -- it looks like MSU, for one, appears to be much better than was expected, so maybe we'll get a real sense from that game. But I think 9-3 is likely, and 8-4 is not outside the realm of possibility. 

On the other hand, before the season started I would have taken either of those records in a heart-beat, so I'm not complaining. I love how this team is playing!

9-3

Beat MSU and they run the table before losing to Iowa in Indianapolis and settling for a Rose Bowl matchup with Oregon.

Lose to MSU and they finish 9-3 and then destroy Florida in the Citrus Bowl, and we're back to where we were January 2nd, 2016.

Basically, it all comes down to October 30th.

I'm going to plan on UM losing to MSU, PSU, and OSU. Given the way past seasons have shaped my perception of the team, I will just plan for the worst. If something better happens, then so be it.

And to be honest, one of the things that bothers me the most about the past decade and a half is that for almost that entire 15 year span, MSU has been better, or on par with Michigan, or has wanted the head-to-head victory more. I can deal with OSU being a death star (go ahead and neg away. perhaps I feel that way because I don't live anywhere near any Buckeye fans), but the fact that MSU is above average most of the time really grinds me up. They are supposed to suck. That's how it is supposed to be. 

Yep, I had predicted 7-5 but now the floor looks to be 9-3 (if we lose to PSU, MSU and OSU and don't have an upset loss), with the potential for 11-1. Outside of  the miracle chance of 13-0, if  we beat OSU and beat IA in the B1G championship game.

Yep, I had predicted 7-5 but now the floor looks to be 9-3 (if we lose to PSU, MSU and OSU and don't have an upset loss), with the potential for 11-1. Outside of  the miracle chance of 13-0, if  we beat OSU and beat IA in the B1G championship game.

As a fan I never expected this to be what so many assumed..a terrible season with Harbaugh being shown the door. Hell many seemed to actually WANT that to happen. Post after post after post of gloom and doom. And it still seems to be just lurking around the corner waiting for a loss.

I just love watching this team and program go out and play ball and give it their all. I also just never thought Harbaugh deserved so much damn crap. Like the dude had no idea what he was doing and was damn near as bad as Hoke and RR. He'd accomplished too much as a player and coach. He'd done too much for this program as a player and coach. I felt he deserved a lot more rope. He took a pay cut and some saw that as a problem...I saw it as humility and betting on himself. He took in feedback, changed the staff, got rid of what I think were some bad apples in the locker room, lost weight, got his bounce back. 

No idea if the team will challenge for a conference championship there are some tough games still to be played and two of them are on the road...but I just like they way this coach, this staff and this team have handled themselves and adversity.

More please...

Beat Bye Week.

Floor is probably 9-3 because of the overall weakness of the schedule.  They tried to lose last night, but Nebraska is much better than NW, IND and MD, so I can't see a debacle happening in those games.  MSU is for real, but still can't win unless "Sparty shit" happens.  OSU is as close to a sure loss as exists, and PSU is a W if Clifford is hurt long term.

So, you sure as hell don't sound stupid if you think 12-0 is possible.  I will stick to 9-3 and smile thinking 6-6 was my preseason expectation.  The boys are doing well.  Oakland (Vegas?) is definitely back in play.

Two losses and a New Years Six bowl. Losses to OSU and PSU/MSU with a toss-up win between those two. So 10-2 with a Rose Bowl equivalent consolation prize. Still better than the 5 loss range I expected. 

Whooooa, nelly... 

I came into the season more optimistic than most and I think they have out performed my expectations thus far. We have a tough schedule remaining and some weaknesses but also a lot of potential. Let's see how this plays out and enjoy it!

I predicted 9-3 or possibly 10-2. Michigan is pretty much who I thought they would be. Defense is a little better than I thought, the o-line is better, but our passing game is worse than expected…so it all evens out. The biggest difference is I didn’t expect Wisconsin to be this bad.

I still think we are probably 10-2 because PSU is hard to beat in Happy Valley and OSU is getting better every week. Winning both isn’t impossible, but I’m not counting on it.

If you see it happen, it won't be a projection.

Is Sean Clifford healthy?

I said 11-0 going into The Game before the season and I stand by that prediction.

I’m right there with the majority here - 9-3 as the floor with 11-1 as the ceiling, but I’ll split the difference and say we win one of PSU/MSU and lose to OSU to finish 10-2.

The thing that will grind my gears is if Clifford’s injury is severe enough to keep him out of the OSU game but not enough to keep him out for our game.  Would be classic OSU luck