Michigan under Harbaugh: 1-8 when allowing 30+ points
The only win was a 48-41 2OT win in 2015 vs Indiana. There was also a 45-28 win over Colorado in 2016 that almost counted but even then 14 of our points were special teams TDs and one of the TDs given up was defensive TD.
The point being in 4+ seasons under Harbaugh (55 games) our offense has definitively won us one game? And even that one required 2 OTs and a game tying TD as time expired to break 30. Obviously the more points you give up the harder it is to win but shouldn't we expect our offense to be able to bail our defense out even 2% of the time?
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:18 PM ^
People will still defend him.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:22 PM ^
The only defenses I've really seen of him the past few days have been "I don't know who else could do a better job", which isn't really a defense of him but more of a fear of the unknown.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:47 PM ^
And it represents satisfaction with mediocrity. Would OSU have kept Tressel if he had started 0-5 vs. Michigan?
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:49 PM ^
Hell no!
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:58 PM ^
That's irrelevant. The guy I responded to is acting like there are significant number of fans coming to his defense. Might have been the case before this week, but it's absolutely not the case right now.
September 23rd, 2019 at 4:45 PM ^
They wouldn't have kept Tressel, he was a nobody when they hired him. But they kept John Cooper for 13 years.
September 23rd, 2019 at 7:57 PM ^
John Cooper is a Hall of Fame coach with more 11 win seasons at OSU than Harbaugh has had in his career. And when he regressed they met him go. It was also 20 years ago so put some context with it. Harbaugh is Purdue without the W over OSU. Stop it already.
September 23rd, 2019 at 1:20 PM ^
I feel like the only person that defends him these days is Colin Cowherd lol
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:48 PM ^
They are defending the indefensible.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:18 PM ^
Yikes. I'm over it. The team is lost and Jim has lost his players and prolly his coaches. Find something better to do with your time. The season is shot...
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:21 PM ^
Michigan was the only team to ever beat Tim Tebow in a Bowl game. Who would've thought that was possible the way that season started. Just playing devil's advocate...
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:28 PM ^
We actually had leaders on that team...
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:36 PM ^
oh, fuck that sideways. unless you've been in either one of those locker rooms you have no idea about the "leaders" on either team.
September 23rd, 2019 at 1:28 PM ^
Yeah the same guys who all went out and got stoned out of their minds the night before the App State game? You mean those guys?
September 23rd, 2019 at 1:50 PM ^
I still don’t understand this. I don’t see how getting blazed the night before has any affect as opposed to getting hambone drunk. I thought I had heard certain players were blazing up before the game. Not the night before. But I’m just a guy on a message board that is a lettuce advocate.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:28 PM ^
Literally nothing to do with the current team for $400, Alex.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:37 PM ^
So no division championship? No conference championship? But another feel good story that we can hang our hats on? We haven’t become the service academies yet and we aren’t Stanford or a Group 5 program. That was 12 years and 3 coaches ago.
Edit: Also doesn’t change the fact that that ‘07 team was disappointing and underachieved.
September 23rd, 2019 at 1:01 PM ^
Oh baby, feed me more vague parallels!
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:20 PM ^
Don't most teams have a losing record when giving up over 30 points?
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:22 PM ^
Yes. Maybe in the Big 12 the last decade, you can find a team with a winning record despite giving up more than 30. But even in that conference it's going to be difficult.
As a post, this one didn't have to jump over the shark. That thing is so far behind now we can't even see it!
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:48 PM ^
In the same time frame, James Franklin is 5-8.
Kirk Ferentz is 4-7.
So 2 coaches we shit on all the time with significantly better winning percentages in such games in the same time frame. Part of that is worse defenses giving up more points to worse teams to fit the criteria, but:
Franklin's 2016 B1G title win fits this criteria.
Ferentz beat his 8-5 in state rival on the road in a game that fits this criteria.
We have a win over Indiana in Harbaugh's first year.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:24 PM ^
I’m sure squads like OSU and Oklahoma have pretty good records in those games.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:35 PM ^
I looked for that stat but can't find it. However I will say this:
There are 130 FBS teams. The 65th team (the 50th percentile team) averages 27.5 PPG. So is 30 a lot? 30 is slightly more than average. So under Harbaugh if our defense is anywhere slightly below average, we lose.
So knowing that I would guess in modern football, no, 30 points does not equal losing record. 30 is average nowadays. And even if teams do have losing records, they win probably at a higher clip than 11% of the time.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:59 PM ^
So... much... bad... math!
Seriously, from your "2% of the time" number (1 of 9 is 11%) to pulling out non-pace-adjusted, non-opposition-adjusted, median numbers... you're not making a compelling argument at all. (Hint: they don't average 27.5 points per game against Power 5 teams).
Anyway, this is what I can't figure out about this fanbase. So many people complained about the offense last year -- mostly because of a single game that they lost wherein they scored 39 points. Last year's offense was fine. It wasn't the greatest offense in the history of college football, but you don't get double credit for wins if you score 50+, or if you run up to the line really quickly.
This year's offense will be fine, if it's given the chance to develop. It won't be great, because you don't bring in a new system and expect it to be great in year one. But, the worst possible thing that you can do, both for this season and for next season, is to overreact and change everything again.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:53 PM ^
People throw stats like this around without any context. Drives me nuts.
Some records of other teams when giving up 30+ (note that these, like presumably the OP, include OT games where the opponent was held under 30 in regulation):
- OSU under Mayer 13-7
- Michigan under Hoke: 5-9
- Michigan under Carr: 9-19
- OSU under Tressel: 3-8
- Michigan under Rodriguez: 5-17
- Michigan under Schembechler: 1-4 ('88 OSU of course)
- Wisconsin under Alvarez: 5-33
It helps of course if you play at a really fast tempo and have a bad defense: then you can get games against Illinois and Indiana and UMass into this category and it's easier to win a few.
Bo must have been a terrible coach--his first 19 seasons at Michigan his offense didn't bail him out even once and overall he only managed it .3% of the time.
September 23rd, 2019 at 1:03 PM ^
Not in the Big 12.
September 23rd, 2019 at 1:38 PM ^
I haven't checked everybody yet but so far only Oklahoma in the Big 12 has a winning record since 2015 in these games. Ohio State does. Alabama does. Clemson's 9-2. That's about it.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:21 PM ^
Quick, someone post S&P+ numbers showing that our offense isn't actually terrible.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:24 PM ^
Think I just heard we are 105th in the nation
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:26 PM ^
I was talking about previous season, but 105th sounds about right. I bet we're #1 in fumbles though!
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:26 PM ^
https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27677435/sp+-rankings-week-4-ohio-state-move
Michigan is 72nd in offense, 12th in defense.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:22 PM ^
Look pal,
I tend to look on bright side because why be depressed. Previous offenses couldn't catch up. This offense has a chance - see 4th quarter. Lets give this a try can we as fan base? What if the last few minutes of game is our turning point? Shea actually throwing to the receivers on long plays? If that is the sort of offense we can get consistently then we can start boat racing teams. Lets be honest, Clemson boat raced Bama in championship. May be now M gets comfy throwing to receivers ...
Glass half full and all.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:24 PM ^
This offense has a chance - see 4th quarter.
You mean garbage time in a blow out? OK, our glass is definitely half full!
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:38 PM ^
I mean did Wisconsin stop blitzing? that corner doing PI on Black looked plenty caring/feisty.
Look, you may be right but heck I am looking for positives and Shea ACTUALLY staying in the pocket to hitting the receiver 40 yards down in face of rush gotta give him some confidence no? and if so I'll take it. Baby steps.
And before someone comes in and reminds me of "hey this is Michigan, we are waiting for baby steps! FU etc etc" - again, lets atleast enjoy these kids play, learn, and try to improve. We didn't lose to a MAC team here.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:44 PM ^
Our shots deep seemed to correspond with UW's starting safeties being ejected for targeting.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:46 PM ^
May be true, but still can be used to build confidence. And these weren't the "arm punts" I saw on thread. Shea stood and threw to in stride receivers. Oye! Positive!
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:26 PM ^
I like the tone of your post. I mean, Harbaugh isn't going anywhere right now - whether anyone likes it, or not, is irrelevant. Harbaugh will not be fired during this season, so we may as well buckle up and hope for the best.
But dude, starting out with "look, pal..." is only going to get you negged. And deservedly so! 'Pal' is not a nice term on the internet. You basically said 'look, asshole...'
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:35 PM ^
Didn't mean it that way but understood.
Overall I think people mean well, just frustrated about the team's performance. But lets be positive.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:27 PM ^
I hope you're right, because I don't see the defense carrying the team this year.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:41 PM ^
I'm with you. It's over, last weekend happened. Nothing we can do about that now. Adjust your expectations, catch some fresh air, and then lets support this team moving forward. We are only 3 games into the season. Improvement is possible.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:50 PM ^
Joe Milton says otherwise.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:24 PM ^
Maybe we can keep talking about our "academic superiority" whenever stuff like that comes up.... that seems to be helping.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:27 PM ^
I would also expect the defense not give up 30+ 9 times. That is also pretty alarming.
September 23rd, 2019 at 1:26 PM ^
Is it? Clemson's done it eleven times over the same period. Alabama's given up 30+ eight times and they don't even play all that fast. MSU has 12. So far the smallest number I've found is Wisconsin's 7. Nine is pretty good (to the extent that good/bad even applies to tempo- and context-free numbers like this).
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:44 PM ^
Works for Georgia Tech /s
I don’t even have that option... unless. Are the satellites considered “ Public Ivy”? Asking for a friend.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:24 PM ^
Considering that Harbaugh came in with a perhaps undeserved reputation as an offensive brain guy, it's odd that his offenses are so clearly not up to the task in so many games.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:26 PM ^
His record when scoring under 30 points is also 12-13. So basically we have a very good chance of winning if the defense plays well. If the defense is only ok, we're about a .500 team.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:26 PM ^
on the flip side, Michigan is 10-0 when allowing 7 points or less (I made up the record but you get the point) I mean, come the fuck on with these kinds of statistics. news flash, giving up lots of points means you probably lose.
September 23rd, 2019 at 12:33 PM ^
There are 130 FBS teams. The 65th team (the 50th percentile team) averages 27.5 PPG. So is 30 a lot? 30 is slightly more than average. So under Harbaugh if our defense is anywhere slightly below average, we lose.
September 23rd, 2019 at 1:04 PM ^
Conversely, when we score more than 30 points, our record is pretty damn good. Harbaugh is around 26-2 when his teams score more than 30 (I may be a few off on the win column. I left my computer glasses at home today and not seeing super well!). The two losses I can count are at OSU last year and FSU in the bowl game. Granted, the majority of these wins aren't exactly against powerhouses; however, there were a few PSU, Wisconsin, and Nebraska wins in there...