Michigan TCU Advanced Stats Preview

Yeah, I'm not sure how applicable our current offense without Corum is with the current statistical profile UM has.  With Corum and most of the season, UM has a very efficient offense, but not very explosive.  It had one of the biggest gaps between efficiency and explosive rate.  The last two weeks without Corum has flipped.  The offense has not been very efficient, but has been explosive.  That is no doubt part missing Corum, but also part defenses finally saying 'we're going to take away the efficient run, see if you can beat us other ways'.  Hopefully UM self scouts without Corum and the current personal, and finds a way to keep the offense efficient.  It would be nice to be efficient and explosive.

TCU has relied on coming from behind and finishing strong to win games vs tough opponents....

Michigan has completely shut down our opponents in the 2nd half....

That bodes well for us.  

GO BLUE

Hot take: Stats don't mean much at this point. It's playoff time and each team will lay it all on the line to get to the NC game. TCU is a dangerous team. Michigan will have its hands full. 

According to 247, the team composite talent difference between TCU and Michigan is the same as the difference between OSU and Michigan. My point is this - if you think TCU is gonna be a cakewalk, ask OSU how things went on the last Saturday of November.

QB play is the great equalizer, and TCU has a tremendous player at the position. 

TCU is a good team that can beat Michigan. That said, Michigan couldn't have asked for a better matchup. Any team in the top 4 in any given year is going to be good. Michigan struggles more with blue bloods that have the talent that Michigan cannot man handle. TCU ain't that. This is even better than if Michigan drew Cincy last season. 

I think we match up really well against them. Their defense is not on the level of OSU or PSU and we should be able to get consistent success against them

The difference will come down to gameplan and execution (duh). If we can limit explosive plays and keep their QB from extending plays constantly, we're going to be in really good shape

Parker's great for a lot of these stats and he's a TCU fan to boot.  I do think this is a closer matchup than some people are thinking; TCU has played some good offenses in the Big 12 and done well against them.  

The x-factor for me will be slowing down the TCU offense.  Michigan doesn't want to get into a race with the horned frogs so it's essential that they slow them down early and play to their strengths.  UM is the better team but the gap is such that TCU absolutely can win this game without it being some seismic screwup by UM.

Blake Corum enabled Michigan to win the TOP battle because on drives, he ran for 4,5,6 and more yards on 1st and 2nd down. With Blake, Michigan was able to move the chains. He also had the home run ability to score TDs from 20 or more yards out. Donovan is more of a home run hitter whereas when he breaks free and gets into the secondary, he's gone. Donovan did move the chains in the 3rd quarter against OH State before he unleased his 2 long TD runs in the 4th quarter.

Looking at the Purdue stats, they ran 84 plays compared to only 55 for Michigan. That is a complete flip before Blake got injured. Purdue won the TOP by almost 7 1/2 min. It was the Michigan defense that shut down Purdue in the Red Zone and they had to settle for FG.

The point is, Michigan cannot afford TCU to run 80 plays. If so, then the defense will once again have to make critical stops in the RZ. IMO, the whole offensive dynamic has changed without Blake Corum but IT HAS been successful. The argument is valid that our offensive success rate will lower but it doesn't spell doom and gloom.

The thing that pops to me is their passing success rate it quite low. They are much better running the ball (likely has a lot to to with QB running). If we can stuff runs on early downs, then spy the QB, can Duggan complete 3rd and 6+ against our secondary?

I still hope for a chance of Corum coming back, if not Fiesta Bowl, the Natty.

With or without Corum, our offense will march on regardless. Both JJ and Edwards are studs in last two games. Mullings has been great as the short yardage back, and is under appreciated as an ultimate team player. 

Happy to see we rank #1 in Eckel Ratio. That means we should win it all right? 

Things that jump out:

TCU is not great against defending the run. 68th nationally in defensive success rate against the run. Gotta be licking our chops about that

They're also 82nd nationally in offensive passing sucess rate. Kinda surprising given Duggan's stats. But they have more explosive plays than Ohio State. Having not watched any of their games, my take from the data is they aren't incredibly efficient on a down by down basis, but then have lots of explosive plays.

One other thing not listed here:  Michigan has 94% scoring rate in the Red Zone. TCU on the other hand, only has an 82% scoring rate in the Red Zone. That's a substantial difference and worth paying attention to

One problem with evaluating differences simply by the stats is that the two teams have faced different opponents, in different leagues whose teams' styles of play emphasize different aspects of the game.

I think you'd have to do a deeper dive and ask whether TCU has faced a team built to play like Michigan this year; I'm guessing they really haven't. So we don't have much information as to how well their defense will work against Michigan's ball control, grind-you-down style of offense.

We have a little more information, however, about how Michigan's defense has worked against pass-heavy offenses with relatively mobile quarterbacks. That's gone pretty well so far.

We've played a team with as much, if not more talent, on offense: Ohio State (though OSU's QB wasn't very mobile this season). We've played another team or two with good passing offenses, like Purdue. I'm not saying these teams are exactly alike, but perhaps they're not all that far apart in offensive philosophy (I'm no expert, and am fully willing to be shown I'm wrong in this assumption).

My guess is that Michigan's style of offensive line play will cause TCU problems in the second half, as it has done with other teams all year. If we play to potential - a very big if - we should do well in this game.

TCU's 3-3-5 defense also does not seem ideal to stop Michigan's rushing attack, though Michigan hasn't really faced that defense this year (IIRC, there are a lot of people who are way smarter at football than me here) - though without Corum, who knows?

Excellent write up. We have major advantages in scheme and talent that most likely will win the day, but the biggest factor in the next game is our coach can beat up their coach.

Defense wins championships....

someone used to say