Michigan Somehow #4 In ESPN FPI's List Of Teams Likely To Make It To The National Championship
Don't get made at me, get mad at FPI.
MOD EDIT - Changed the title. This is not Muppets Take Manhattan and you are not trying to sell Ocean Breeze soap. "Just say what the product does? No one has ever tried that!" - LSA
September 27th, 2021 at 5:42 AM ^
Boo dumb title. Just say what it is in the post.
As for the numbers, there are certainly emotions about analytics. For example, I like those numbers and I'll like them even more if the top 4 stays like that all the way through November.
September 27th, 2021 at 8:00 AM ^
I couldn't stand the title either. It is now fixed and a little more appropriate, I think.
There is something desperately wrong with how people have been titling threads generally this season. I've reworked some of the more egregious ones I could find.
September 27th, 2021 at 10:06 AM ^
LSA doing Michigan God work here. Thanks for your efforts.
September 27th, 2021 at 8:19 AM ^
If Oklahoma is struggling with Tulane, Nebraska, and West Virginia, what are they going to do when they play Texas, Baylor, Iowa St, and Oklahoma St?
September 27th, 2021 at 8:34 AM ^
I’d Like it A LOT better if instead of Bama/Georgia it was Clemson/Notre Dame
September 27th, 2021 at 5:46 AM ^
There ARE limited samples sizes and inherent bullshit though.
September 27th, 2021 at 7:27 AM ^
The way fans are talking Rutgers is “under appreciated” prolly should be like #2
September 27th, 2021 at 12:56 PM ^
We should know it never works that way for us. Rutgers is probably gonna go like 1-5 in the east and finish 5-7
September 27th, 2021 at 6:49 AM ^
I can't look at any of ESPN's 'analytics' and help but thinking that they are crafted with their product offerings in mind. How else would you explain Clemson's position on this list, if not for the ACC Network? Florida and Old Miss? Good teams, but they have a rough path to the CFP. Oregon should be higher, if winning your conference punches your ticket. Both Michigan and OSU are flawed (OSU less so), but are up there.
Yesterday, when the Ryder Cup and NFL should have been up there, ESPN had a PPV fight package as their lead story on the web site. They are less journalistic and more about product marketing.
September 27th, 2021 at 9:18 AM ^
The only thing I can think is that Clemson's schedule is so putrid that they will pretty much go 10-2 if they beat Wake Forest (@Clemson) and Louisville (@Louisville). They have upcoming games against Syracuse (lost to Rutgers), Pitt (lost to Western), Florida State (lost to Jacksonville State), UConn (lost to everyone badly), and South Carolina (just lost at home to Kentucky and barely beat East Carolina; starting a GA at QB). If they manage to make the conference championship game (they need help to get there now), they wouldn't be facing a ranked team. So let's say they have a 60% chance of winning each game against Wake, Louisville, and the ACC title game, 80% to beat BC next week, and a 95% chance in the others, with 100% against UConn. That gives them about a 13% chance to go 11-2, and they'd go into the playoff discussion on a 9 game win streak with their only losses to Georgia by 1 score and an overtime loss on the road. At that point, would you say they have about 1 chance in 3 to get into the playoffs? Because that puts them at about 4.5% overall.
Personally, I don't think they have a chance to get in even in that situation because they would be 11-2 against a schedule that is similar to Cincinnati's, and the Bearcats aren't getting in with even one loss.
September 27th, 2021 at 10:42 AM ^
Good breakdown. A 2 loss team with a schedule full of cupcakes does not belong in the playoff, period. Clemson should already be out of the running. A 2 loss pac 10, pac 12, or B1G team SHOULD easily make the playoff over them, though who knows what the playoff committee will say.
September 27th, 2021 at 6:50 AM ^
Stupid post.
September 27th, 2021 at 8:12 AM ^
As opposed to yours, which is insightful, hilarious and poignant.
September 27th, 2021 at 9:18 AM ^
Any post that brings me any iota or modicum of hope or delight in Michigan football is stupid.
September 27th, 2021 at 6:52 AM ^
Lies, damned lies, and statistics.
September 27th, 2021 at 6:54 AM ^
I mean if they still have a 2 loss Clemson team on there..
September 27th, 2021 at 7:01 AM ^
After seeing how the Rutgers game went, the notion that Michigan will win the conference title with at most one loss requires an enormous amount of optimism that IMO borders on the irrational.
We appear to have a pretty good defense, but an offense that's fixated on running between the tackles to the exclusion of everything else for long stretches of the game even when it's impotent puts an enormous amount of pressure on that defense.
September 27th, 2021 at 8:30 AM ^
Indeed. I think Michigan is talented enough to pull that off but I’m don’t believe the passing game will magically appear. OSU is showing some cracks this year and will be interesting to see if Day can handle the internal stress.
If Harbaugh could win 2 out of three against Wisconsin, MSU, PSU I would consider that a very good season. To do that he would show development during the season and get the passing game going to help with the running game. Prove me wrong Jim.
September 27th, 2021 at 9:04 AM ^
This is the most positive thing I've ever heard you say and for that you get a +1
September 27th, 2021 at 9:05 AM ^
I like this post! I have very similar thoughts. I agree that 2 out of the three you listed would be a very good season.
Actually, I could still be happy if we lost two out of those three if we looked like we had a decent plan and fought hard. Like this coming Saturday. I'm ok if we take a good punch or two and lose, but could we not have our trousers pulled down to our ankles as well?
September 27th, 2021 at 10:51 AM ^
This post also supposes that Michigan wins on the road at Nebraska, which I don't think is going to be a cake walk by any stretch. If the Rutgers game shows anything, it's that Michigan, while quality and improved, is not sporting a massive talent gap against our B1G competitors. I think Michigan is a better team on paper against every team left on their schedule, save maybe Penn State and OSU, but we're not THAT much better. Come out with more halves like we had in the 2nd half against Rutgers, and teams are going to beat us.
3 out of our next 4 games are on the road against quality competition. Season gets made or broke in October.
September 27th, 2021 at 7:04 AM ^
What happened to IOWA? It sems like they are going to beat Wisconsin. They are in the B1G championship game.
If Clemson wins out and there are two losses for every conference champion except Bama, Clemson may get a shot. Many dominoes has to fall the right way.
September 27th, 2021 at 7:31 AM ^
And why is Penn State deemed less likely than Michigan?
September 27th, 2021 at 8:01 AM ^
Don't understand that either, unless their stat thinks PSU is going to lose to OSU and M. I have not gone to their site to check.
September 27th, 2021 at 8:13 AM ^
PSU is at Iowa and at OSU, but PSU under Franklin has a better record than Michigan under Harbaugh when it comes to playing good teams on the road, or playing OSU anywhere.
September 27th, 2021 at 9:32 AM ^
Franklins record against ranked teams on the road is basically the same as Harbaughs. Franklin is 2-7. He lost to Minnesota after the article I posted below and beat Wisconsin this year.
September 27th, 2021 at 8:05 AM ^
My guess is because Penn State and Iowa have to play each other, which lowers the odds for both teams.
September 27th, 2021 at 8:14 AM ^
But Michigan has to play Penn St and OSU.
September 27th, 2021 at 8:26 AM ^
Yep. They all play each other. But then PSU has the added difficult game against Iowa. So they have three tossup games, whereas UM has two according to them.
Again, just my guess. But it doesn’t explain Iowa who, after Penn State, doesn’t face nearly as difficult competition.
September 27th, 2021 at 8:31 AM ^
James Franklin will lose a game doing something very Franklinesque. He’ll probably win won he shouldn’t as well.
September 27th, 2021 at 8:49 AM ^
Win won ?
September 27th, 2021 at 8:49 AM ^
After watching Rutgers' zone read carve us up, I am concerned about our added difficult game at Nebraska.
Adrian Martinez is a monkey with a bazooka. You hold your breath every time he walks on the field. But if he gets it accidently aimed in the right direction, it could be a problem for us.
September 27th, 2021 at 1:20 PM ^
Yep. Nebraska is back to a worry game for me. One bad half can do that to you.
September 27th, 2021 at 9:05 AM ^
James Franklin
September 27th, 2021 at 7:06 AM ^
If a 2 loss Clemson team is still a top 10 pick to make the national championship game then the system is broken.
September 27th, 2021 at 8:13 AM ^
ESPN flawed? Pishaw! (sarc)
Clemson plays 4-0 Boston College this weekend. Can they win that one?
September 27th, 2021 at 7:12 AM ^
Ah yes, the analytics. They've never let us down in the past, have they?
September 27th, 2021 at 7:14 AM ^
So, Michigan beats Alabama to play and beat Oklahoma in the final. Why even play out the rest of the season?
September 27th, 2021 at 7:15 AM ^
There are no dead bodies in my basement.
September 27th, 2021 at 8:39 AM ^
That's because you moved them to mine.
You said you were going to address that last weekend. But instead you spent all of Saturday and Sunday watching football.
And I want my lawnmower back.
Fucking asshole MGoBlog neighbors. We need an HOA.
September 27th, 2021 at 7:25 AM ^
no one would predict M making the playoff, but we are exactly 1/3rd thru the season, the equivalent of 53 games in MLB and 21 in the NHL/NBA. This team played 4 legit D1 FBS teams with combined records agains non-M opponents of like 10-2? It ain't nothin.
September 27th, 2021 at 8:02 AM ^
Rutgers victories: Temple, Syracuse, Delaware
WMU victories: Illinois State, Pitt, San Jose St.
Washington victories: Arkansas St., Cal
Northern Illinois victories: Georgia Tech, Maine
I'm not trying to make the argument that our opponents being 10-2 is meaningless; it shows that our opponents are generally more than competitive with their peers, and in two instances with their "betters." But it's no murderer's row, either.
September 27th, 2021 at 8:09 AM ^
Don't present facts and reason into the narrative.
September 27th, 2021 at 8:41 AM ^
Well Rutgers almost had Michigan as a victory. If they had done that, it would make our record look really good.
Oh, wait . . .
September 27th, 2021 at 9:31 AM ^
That's overselling their performance a bit. They had three drives late with chances to tie the game up. On those they missed a 29 yard field goal, punted after losing a yard on 3rd and 1, and fumbled after gaining zero yards. They were never in the driver's seat, nor did they really threaten to even take the lead.
September 27th, 2021 at 2:05 PM ^
That Georgia Tech win for NIU is looking better by the week. And each of our opponents has a win over a P5 team, which is not something that many (if any) teams can say. Although three of those wins are over ACC teams, a conference for whom the "P5" designation is sort of an honorary thing this year.
September 27th, 2021 at 8:07 AM ^
It's too bad we are gonna have to play conference games on the road. Seems unfair. We play much better at home. And when we play MAC teams.
September 27th, 2021 at 7:37 AM ^
I don't get how all those teams are ahead of PSU, but my guess is after next week that will change...more data equals more accurate analytics.
September 27th, 2021 at 8:09 AM ^
They don't use enough factors to create their formulas.