Michigan Somehow #4 In ESPN FPI's List Of Teams Likely To Make It To The National Championship
Don't get made at me, get mad at FPI.
MOD EDIT - Changed the title. This is not Muppets Take Manhattan and you are not trying to sell Ocean Breeze soap. "Just say what the product does? No one has ever tried that!" - LSA
September 27th, 2021 at 8:44 AM ^
more data equals more accurate analytics
True. By the end of the season they will be able to predict what actually happened.
September 27th, 2021 at 10:33 PM ^
Penn State can’t run the ball, even against Ball State and FCS Villanova. They’ve got a very good back seven this year and some nice receivers, but that probably doesn’t add up to a championship caliber team.
They also play at Iowa, at MSU, at Ohio State, and home against Michigan. Unless they can figure out how to get a ground game working, they’re not going to hold up well against those opponents.
If the matchup was this week, Michigan would dominate the line of scrimmage and probably win ugly.
September 27th, 2021 at 7:42 AM ^
Emotions or no emotions, PI can go F itself.
September 27th, 2021 at 8:07 AM ^
No emotions. But there are shortcomings in the algorithms.
That said, I think Ohio St will be moving up. They look like a completely different team with the change at QB.
And it's probably true that Oregon deserves that lower percentage. They could not stop Arizona from moving the ball. Arizona likely only lost because of 5 QB ints, and an illegal forward pass on a special teams return.
Oklahoma fans are clamoring for a QB change. They are booing Spencer Rattler. He had something like only 78 yards in the 1st half.
Florida, with one loss, a close loss to Alabama, is probably better than Notre Dame, Oregon, Michigan, and Oklahoma. But they have a loss, and those other teams don't. So the algorithm moves them lower than they should be.
September 27th, 2021 at 8:55 AM ^
The algorithms rely heavily on transitive properties: A beats B by 10 points, B beats C by 10 points, so A should beat C by 20 points.
We are getting a lot of credit for our opponents' opponents. And our opponents' opponents' opponents.
But we know transitive properties don't ever work in football. Different teams play each other differently.
September 27th, 2021 at 9:08 AM ^
Fwiw this list isn’t which team is better, it’s likelihood of making playoff. Makes sense that a team with one loss is below worse undefeated teams
September 27th, 2021 at 8:24 PM ^
You're right. The 4 teams that have been in each year have not necessarily been the 4 best.
September 27th, 2021 at 8:16 AM ^
his is not Muppets Take Manhattan and you are not trying to sell Ocean Breeze soap. "Just say what the product does? No one has ever tried that!" - LSA
Great idea Phil!
September 27th, 2021 at 8:22 AM ^
Interesting. Not saying I understand this stuff. It is encouraging relative to OSU though.
September 27th, 2021 at 8:32 AM ^
The sad thing is that we have the offensive talent on the roster to actually take a run at this.
But we won't use it.
September 27th, 2021 at 8:33 AM ^
Can we just finish the season using this simulation? Big Ten Champs 2021 baby!
September 27th, 2021 at 8:59 AM ^
I think we have a disciplined and talented-enough team to challenge for the B1G title. I'm not confident in the flexibility of play-calling under duress. Have just witnessed too much paralysis when the going gets tough the last few seasons.
Harbaugh's comment in the immediate aftermath of Saturday's game about how (don't quote me), 'We finally ran a play with Corum around the edge,' leaves me with a different take than most: He pretty obviously isn't calling the plays, but could see that testing the edge was necessary.
I'm a casual viewer of football, but--within a given scheme--making the opponent have to worry about defending as much field as possible is a clear-cut goal. There is near-unanimity about the fact that Rutgers being able to stack the box, us repeatedly running INTO it, endangered our chances of winning. (As TTB notes this morning, our corners were coming hard--that spelled an opportunity to do just that.) Some of our best talent went unused as we remained bluntly determined to run straight ahead. I get that they saw themselves wearing down Rutger's D line; when we didn't do that, reality did not assert itself in play-calling.
Saturday's is going to have to be a more inventive--more multi-dimensional--game plan. For me, it will determine whether I'm spending these remaining Fall Saturdays with my wife and daughter or glued to the screen. It's possible that the former is the healthier option.
September 27th, 2021 at 9:04 AM ^
It's classic organizational behavior. When you have so much invested in a plan, you get fixated on it.
I guarantee you that the coaches will be spending hours in the film room asking themselves "Why didn't that play we called work?" Instead of asking themselves "Why didn't we call a different play?"
Don't expect big changes. Michigan is going to spend all their time trying to get the plan they are already fixated on to work.
September 27th, 2021 at 9:18 AM ^
If it's true that Harbaugh isn't calling the plays (and I believe that to be the case), at some point he needs to overrule Gattis when he's clearly fucking up and/or in over his head.
Everyone watching the Rutger game knew we needed to test the edge and throw the ball. Going outside worked just fine the one time we did it, but Cade couldn't hit the broad side of a barn in the second half.
September 27th, 2021 at 9:50 AM ^
I think you are right. I don't believe he makes the calls. I know this has been hashed before and I think someone answered this (may be Harbaugh) that it was by committee. No way they are doing a committee meeting with so little time between plays. May be a few plays but not all. They showed Gattis during the game and he was definitely making the calls. It is possible Gattis have to work within parameters defined by Harbaugh. That means Gattis can't scheme a speed in space within those parameters. It is surprising we are into what 4th OC and we still have this problem.
September 27th, 2021 at 10:16 AM ^
I honestly think he just hasn't hired great OC's. Maybe that's because he wants someone to execute his vision (or at least accept his input) and top tier OC's find that off putting? Or maybe he just whiffed on Pep and Gattis? It's not like either one is Joe Moorehead.
I keep going back to 2016 in my head. While we didn't always score a ton of points, the offense was creative and effective.
September 27th, 2021 at 10:59 AM ^
If you were trying to build a coaching staff from scratch, and you had lots of money to spend (as Michigan does), you would never choose Pep or Gattis. You don't need to.
Gattis especially is a wretchedly bad play caller.
These were not good offensive hires when teams are getting guys like Joe Moorhead (who has actually beaten Ohio State BTW), and even Rutgers is getting a guy like Sean Gleeson.
But Harbaugh doesn't want to let go. He's a career offensive guy and he wants to still be able to fuck with the offense. Moorhead / Gleeson / et al don't want to operate that way.
September 27th, 2021 at 11:10 AM ^
Harbaugh's comment in the immediate aftermath of Saturday's game about how (don't quote me), 'We finally ran a play with Corum around the edge,' leaves me with a different take than most: He pretty obviously isn't calling the plays, but could see that testing the edge was necessary.
As one of the many watching in the stands on Saturday I had much the same feeling. I remember on a 2nd down midway in the 4th, Cade handed off to Corum off-tackle...again...only for it to get stuffed by the Rutgers DE who was crashing the gap and me thinking to myself, "if McNamara pulls the ball on that play, he's got 30 yards to run to the strong side of the field..." The edge was just embarrassingly available for much of the 2nd half, and why we don't let a guy with the speed of Blake Corum exploit that sometimes, is just baffling.
September 27th, 2021 at 9:04 AM ^
Weird that penn state and iowa - both undefeated in the big ten - apparently have a smaller chance of making the playoff than two loss Clemson
September 27th, 2021 at 11:25 AM ^
I don't know about the algorithm that generates the list, but Penn State and Iowa play each other in 2 weeks, so that may be a reason why they're not higher on the list yet.
September 27th, 2021 at 8:27 PM ^
Iowa's front 7 would smash Michigan's run game.
September 27th, 2021 at 9:05 AM ^
It's like they say, "The numbers don't lie" and the numbers say we're 4-0 with the potential to win out in the Big 10. Those are big numbers.
September 27th, 2021 at 9:08 AM ^
Man one less than absolutely stellar half and everyone’s hitting the panic button already. I understood where OP original title was coming from.
September 27th, 2021 at 11:06 AM ^
The panic button is because that half proved that the ones that came before it were a mirage.
Teams can stop our vaunted running game if they decide to. Our passing game hasn't shown the ability to compensate for that. Our coaches won't quickly adjust under duress to what the defense is giving them.
Just like our previous seasons that started strong but ended poorly.
This season may not be different after all. Hence the legitimate concern.
That is what the panic is about, right before we are scheduled to head off to Camp Randall, our personal house of horrors.
Anybody not honestly concerned has not been paying attention.
September 27th, 2021 at 11:19 AM ^
I don't think it's time to throw in the towel, but I think the concern in the back of all our minds was the thought of how easy it would be for a good defense to make Michigan's offense one-dimensional by taking away the run. The fact that an average defense was able to do it, just turns the concern dial up a couple of notches. We'll see if we can do a better job adjusting going forward, but it's clear that Michigan won't be able to line it up against their upcoming competition and ram the ball down their throats every week, which I think was the majority suspicion all along.
September 27th, 2021 at 8:31 PM ^
Thanks for reassuring me.
I think Wisconsin might suffocate the run. Hope I'm wrong.
September 27th, 2021 at 9:10 AM ^
I do not need stats when I have eyeballs. No way they make it to the national championship.
September 27th, 2021 at 9:14 AM ^
Don't mean nothing. This game on the road against the best defense they will likely face this season and will tell a lot about what this team is. Something special or the same old Wolverines under Harbaugh. Can they beat a team on the road with a pulse?
ND had a pass-run ratio of 37-32 and those rushing attempts were basically for naught with a long of 7 yards. This will be the moment we determine if they are what we thought they were
September 27th, 2021 at 9:41 AM ^
Yup. Do I think Gattis will dial up a majority of passing plays if the team isn't hopelessly behind? No friggin way. As long as the game is close--and I think it will be--he'll keep calling runs, regardless of success. That's just who he is (or has been instructed to be), and anyone who thinks otherwise hasn't been paying attention for the last 3 years.
Michigan might win, but the score will have to be 14-10 or something like that.
September 27th, 2021 at 10:08 AM ^
Michigan might win, but the score will have to be 14-10 or something like that.
"The win isn't impactful unless it's by like three touchdowns!"
September 27th, 2021 at 8:38 PM ^
Where's my speed in space?
September 27th, 2021 at 9:29 AM ^
Flawed data aside, it's nice to have a season where the four teams aren't a lock in week four.
September 27th, 2021 at 10:27 AM ^
Agree completely. This might be the most intriguing outcome after experiencing 4 weeks of the 2021 college football season.
September 27th, 2021 at 11:02 AM ^
Yep, that's one of my main takeaways thru 4 weeks as well. You're almost certainly getting Bama, UGA, or both but then there's no clue who the other teams will be. The winner of ND/Cincinnati looks like they'll have a good chance at a spot. All the other P5 leagues look wide open right now
September 27th, 2021 at 11:21 AM ^
Thanks! Nice level-headed, calm observations are sometimes rare here, and very welcome.
September 27th, 2021 at 10:12 AM ^
I'll take the fromunda
September 27th, 2021 at 10:15 AM ^
What's the Vegas line at right now?
I imagine that people will be able to make a ton of cash right now if they wanted to bet on Michigan to make the CFB playoffs.
If people actually believe that this rating is deserved and not a question of other top 25 teams losing, they could probably make a good haul
Personally, I wouldn't touch that bet with a 10 foot pole
September 27th, 2021 at 10:31 AM ^
Michigan is one of 26 as yet undefeated teams. They have looked damn good in 3.5/4 of the games they've played. In that time:
Ohio State has looked eminently beatable.
MSU struggled against Nebraska.
Wisconsin has yet to impress against anyone.
Penn State's best wins have been against the aforementioned Wisconsin and an Auburn team that struggled against Georgia (checks notes)... Oh, no, Georgia STATE.
I'm not seeing a single world beater in the Big Ten East. A lot of quality opponents (one of which may be Rutgers). But sure, why the hell not Michigan?
September 27th, 2021 at 8:43 PM ^
You see Ohio St now with their QB change?
September 27th, 2021 at 9:29 PM ^
I don't know. Stroud put up a lot of points against teams with far better FPI than Akron.
September 27th, 2021 at 10:42 AM ^
If Notre Dame wins against Cinny on Saturday they play nobodys the rest of the year and will get in even if they lose the ACC CCG. Why they aren't ranked higher is surprising. It will be the 3rd time they get in without deserving it.
How Clemson is even on the list is surprising as well. I don't believe any 2 loss team has ever made it and they lost to NC State. If they get in, the whole system is a sham.
Where is Arkansas? Is their schedule too tough? PSU?? They could be the best team in the Big Ten.
Both the ACC and the Big 12 look really down and the jury is out on the Big Ten and Pac 12. Oregon got slapped around by Jedd Fisch and Don Brown on Saturday so there could be stumbles ahead for them.
Computers only process data input by humans. Whatever datasets these algorithms are processing need serious revisions.
September 27th, 2021 at 11:00 AM ^
Interesting that their analytics has Michigan and OSU around 10% but PSU isn't on there. They must be figuring @Iowa is a guaranteed loss
September 27th, 2021 at 8:46 PM ^
But then Iowa should be on that list now.
September 27th, 2021 at 10:42 PM ^
Look at the box score of Penn State’s games, especially against Ball State and Villanova. No run game. On the road against Iowa, Ohio State, and MSU, and at home against a physical team like Michigan that doesn’t bode well. They depend on the big play and defense, which can win games but not reliably.
Penn State and Iowa are both ranked very highly right now, but that’s due to early season schedules. They’re both citrus/outback bowl caliber squads right now I think. Michigan looks like the best bet to challenge Ohio State based on their combination of defense and run game—I.e. the stuff championship teams are still usually built on.
Season is young though, if Iowa puts together a consistent offense and Penn State figures out how to grind out yards, they could both be serious contenders.
September 27th, 2021 at 11:22 AM ^
I mean, they're basically tied with OSU, which makes sense. If one of those teams ends the regular season with a single loss they'd likely get a bid over, say, a one-loss OU team. ND has to win against Cincy and then they're likely going undefeated until the ACC title game.
September 27th, 2021 at 11:54 AM ^
My understanding is that FPI ranking is based on what each team is expected to do against an average team and the projections are built off that simulated a lot of times. Michigan usually does really well against average teams it’s their performance against good teams that’s not comparable with the elites in CFB. Team record against top 25 opponents has more value to me as a result.
September 27th, 2021 at 1:27 PM ^
I don't see us making the playoffs but most people before the season didn't have Michigan at 4-0 and ranked 14 at this point either. Wisconsin game is huge. I think we have a good chance. The offense has to play the whole game though and they will have to pass well to win.
September 27th, 2021 at 1:35 PM ^
This one has Michigan having a 27% chance to make the playoffs:
https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor
September 27th, 2021 at 10:48 PM ^
Michigan plays defense and runs the ball well. They also miss Iowa and get Ohio State at home.
They’ve got more of the key pieces in place than anyone else in the conference right now. If the metrics weigh that sort of stuff and aren’t blind W/L calculators, it makes sense they’d be high.