Michigan is the only FBS program without an upset victory since 2015
https://www.teamrankings.com/ncf/trends/win_trends/?sc=is_dog&range=yearly_since_2015
Spencer Hall on harbaugh:
"LITTLE HARBAUGH: Here’s the part that amazed me! Since Harbaugh arrived in 2015, his program is the only one in all of FBS with zero upset victories. Harbaugh’s Wolverines are 0-10 as underdogs. Even Bama has an upset win in that span, and Bama’s only been an underdog once.
If Herman’s Texas expands or shrinks in order to match the size of the enemy, Harbaugh’s Michigan expands or shrinks in direct contrast to the size of the enemy.
Against Rutgers, Harbaugh is Galactus. Against the Buckeyes, he is:
Up next, Michigan is favored by three points on the road against the higher-ranked Indiana Hoosiers."
https://mooncrew.substack.com/p/the-top-whatever-jim-harbaugh-ranks
November 2nd, 2020 at 12:19 PM ^
So... we should win this weekend? (!!!)
November 2nd, 2020 at 12:24 PM ^
Exactly. We're due
November 2nd, 2020 at 12:50 PM ^
Michigan is a 3.5 point favorite on the line that I saw.
November 2nd, 2020 at 1:10 PM ^
This doesn't mean we don't have losses as a favorite - we've got a good supply of those, too.
November 2nd, 2020 at 12:26 PM ^
Not gonna lie that's pretty bad. He can't do it man, something is missing and has been since 2016. It's time to move on.
November 2nd, 2020 at 12:32 PM ^
How to negotiate this exit, if in fact there is to be an exit? Announce at the end of this year that next year will be his last? Play out the string and make the decision at the end of the contract next year? There are major risks to any exit strategy, foremost among them that the recruiting class will be left to the wolves. I really think this year will be blown off by Warde as Covid and that a modest extension will be announced after whatever shitty bowl game we lose.
November 2nd, 2020 at 12:35 PM ^
To negotiate his exit just get Jerry Jones on the phone.
November 2nd, 2020 at 12:43 PM ^
Cannot have a lame duck coach. That's out of the question. I wish I had a good answer but my guess is he finds another opportunity in the NFL and leaves, saving face for him in a way, saving face for us having to fire him.
November 2nd, 2020 at 12:52 PM ^
I've not put much thought into it, but I'd fire up the ol' coaching search machine and inform Harbaugh immediately so that the he can exit gracefully, with the official announcement coming after the OSU thrashing that the 9th "bowl game" will be his last. Have a new coach lined up to be announced a week after the bowl game so that the recruiting impact will be as minimal as possible. We're in a sunk cost scenario at this point with JH essentially a lame duck. It's just a matter of how bad will Ward let it get. The best programs take decisive action when it's apparent, rather than muddle around and let the program get even more in the crapper. We'll see how serious Ward is about the future of the program.
On a side note, I'd keep all the offensive assistants outside of McDaniels. Idk if JayBaugh would stay if it'd be awkward or not, but they all seem fine and have been recruiting pretty well. I have a suspicion that JH himself is the issue there. Defensively they need to clean house.
November 2nd, 2020 at 1:08 PM ^
Whoever is in charge of running back substitutions needs shit canned yesterday.
November 2nd, 2020 at 1:21 PM ^
What makes you think we are going to be bowl eligible?
OSU, PSU and Wisconsin are guaranteed losses. We have to run the table otherwise to be bowl eligible.
Its not happening.
November 2nd, 2020 at 2:02 PM ^
I know pessimism is the name of the game here since Saturday, but PSU hasn't yet looked anything but mediocre, and Wisconsin in down to their 7th string qb.
November 2nd, 2020 at 2:35 PM ^
There is no one who is more disappointed than me.....Saturday was about as low as it gets. I questioned my fandom and the game really ruined my weekend up until about today. But the hysteria of our fan base is part of the problem. We like to throw logs on the fire and feed the mainstream sports media with our click and views. Yes, because it registers!
Jim Harbaugh like it or not is not going anywhere. If you think he is going to be fired you are delusional. I'm not advocating for him at all. His demeanor infuriates me. I'm just being a realist.
Penn State is 0-2 and started the season ranked #5. Let that sink in.
If we squeak out a win on the road against Indiana and then get home wins against undermanned Wisconson and PSU than the pendulum will swing the other way.....just watch.
Neg away if you like, that's just how I see it......
November 2nd, 2020 at 2:05 PM ^
I was referring to the 9th game against their cross divisional equal. I'm assuming that will be the "bowl game", hence the quotes.
November 2nd, 2020 at 4:14 PM ^
There is no .500 bowl requirement this year.
November 2nd, 2020 at 1:21 PM ^
It would be grossly unfair to Jay to retain him...besides, it would be the replacement's call. In the real/professional world Jay would have never been in the position he was. He needs to be allowed to put on his big-boy pants and begin the job he should have had the past several years. What this whole situation has demonstrated is that Jim Harbaugh has had too much freedom to do whatever the hell he has wanted to do-he has no peers. Nobody is that good and he has proven it.
November 2nd, 2020 at 1:40 PM ^
“I have a suspicion that JH himself is the issue [with the offense.]”
I assume this, too. At the crucial moments our offensive strategy seems identical to before Gattis arrived (a wildcat that works one out of every 15 tries, run up the middle after run up the middle). I feel bad for Gattis if he winds up with some of Harbaugh’s offensive stink on him.
November 2nd, 2020 at 12:28 PM ^
Additional point:
Michigan is also the worst team in college football against the spread as underdogs since 2015 (-10.5, next worst USC at -7.9)
November 2nd, 2020 at 1:10 PM ^
wow, that is bad
November 2nd, 2020 at 12:31 PM ^
Weren't we underdogs against Notre Dame last year?
November 2nd, 2020 at 12:33 PM ^
We were ranked higher by 1.
November 2nd, 2020 at 12:52 PM ^
Yes, I am certain that we were +1 against ND and that got the "monkey off the back" so to speak. Maybe Spencer Hall is using an SP+ metric or something different than Vegas? Or maybe the line moved to even at the last minute? Dunno.
November 2nd, 2020 at 12:55 PM ^
People will use whatever metric supports their argument.
November 2nd, 2020 at 12:35 PM ^
This is what really annoys me about Saturday, it would be easier to deal with if we got our own upsets once and awhile. The 2013 OSU game was the closest we came to a "shock the world" type moment and we all know what happened there.
November 2nd, 2020 at 12:37 PM ^
Have to question why we are favored at IU by 3 pts. Don't see it.
November 2nd, 2020 at 12:57 PM ^
IU is massively overrated (as opposed to us just being moderatly overrated). They were absolutely murdered by PSU. That was the luckiest upset I've seen in a long time. They aren't very good.
We overreacted to trucking Minnesota and we're overreacting to losing to MSU (who themselves were underrated thanks to 7 mostly fluky TOs against Rutgers).
Michigan still has vastly superior talent and that's why we're favored. There's also probably an assumption that Michigan will figure out something to mitigate their second CB problem.
November 2nd, 2020 at 1:21 PM ^
Second CB problem? You mean just the CB problem?
November 2nd, 2020 at 1:26 PM ^
No. You mean the secondary scheming and coaching problem. It is first and foremost the coaches' responsibility to put the players in a position to succeed.
November 2nd, 2020 at 12:41 PM ^
Yes but we have to be doing pretty well in the favored but lost the game anyway category right?! So he does defy some expectations.
November 2nd, 2020 at 12:41 PM ^
Who has it better than us???
November 2nd, 2020 at 2:05 PM ^
Oooooooklahoma State.
November 2nd, 2020 at 12:41 PM ^
And how many upsets have we provided our opponents? Waaaaay too many.
November 2nd, 2020 at 12:45 PM ^
So if we win this week is it considered an upset? Indiana is ranked higher yet Michigan is favored by the point spread at least as of today.
November 2nd, 2020 at 12:54 PM ^
Interesting because I think they are going with the money line argument.
November 2nd, 2020 at 12:45 PM ^
I'm fairly certain we were ranked far below ND when we faced them last year.
They were #8 in the AP and we were #19 in the AP.
The ESPN Box Score shows those rankings too.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/game?gameId=401112227
Edit: The overall performance of the team as an underdog during Harbaugh's tenure is disturbingly bad.
November 2nd, 2020 at 12:51 PM ^
Michigan was favored by 1
https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/notre-dame-michigan-odds-october-26-2019-1116432
November 2nd, 2020 at 1:17 PM ^
I see. I'm not sure what metric the OP was using, but when I think "upset" my first thought is a much-lower-ranked team beating their higher-ranked opponent. Thanks for the clarification though.
November 2nd, 2020 at 2:18 PM ^
I agree with you. So this stat is sort of meaningless.
November 2nd, 2020 at 12:52 PM ^
So we haven't won a game we were the under dog in since Harbaugh has been here? I find that hard to believe, but if so, what more needs to be said?
November 2nd, 2020 at 1:01 PM ^
seeing as how Harbaugh is 1-4 in bowl games he was probably favored in the lone win
November 2nd, 2020 at 2:00 PM ^
Florida was down to their third string QB and we had all our starters in the first bowl game. We were a heavy favorite
November 2nd, 2020 at 12:57 PM ^
November 2nd, 2020 at 1:15 PM ^
"That drive involved a handful of short passes and runs to places other than the sideline, the kind of plays only possible if a coaching staff misunderstands both offense and the concept of time."
That's our man!
November 2nd, 2020 at 1:16 PM ^
Remember when he beat USC at their pinnacle with rink-a-dink Stanford his first year in 2007? Less memorable than App St. beating us that year, but still considered one of the biggest upsets of all-time. If I had unreasonable expectations, that win is part of the calculus.
November 2nd, 2020 at 2:42 PM ^
That's what's so bizarre about his record at Michigan. That 2007 USC team was ranked #1 and #2 in the polls and was a 41-pt favorite, yet Harbaugh figured out how to beat them anyhow with a backup QB who'd thrown 3 passes in his entire career. And he did it on the road in Los Angeles.
Where did that Harbaugh go? Was it just a mirage?
November 2nd, 2020 at 6:58 PM ^
I wish I knew. When he arrived, I thought we’d always have a real shot in any game no matter the odds, and when he got a few recruiting cycles under his belt, he’d be unstoppable. After his crazy success at SF, on top of his time at Stanford, it seemed implausible he’d be so bad. When and where did he lose his edge?
November 2nd, 2020 at 1:18 PM ^
This is all true, but I'd like to point out this would have been true regardless of the outcome of the game against MSU. If people want to rag on Harbaugh so be it but this particular stat wasn't in danger of changing until the 4th game of the year.
November 2nd, 2020 at 1:24 PM ^
To be fair there have been games where we were initially a slight underdog (like Minnesota two weeks ago) but then the bettors went for us. I think that was true of ND last year, also.
November 2nd, 2020 at 2:01 PM ^
Last week the bettors went for us and COVID did too