Michigan needs to take Purdue seriously.
I feel pretty good about our coaching staff and the mindset of the team, but just putting this out there.
November 27th, 2022 at 9:59 AM ^
Oh yeah they’ll be ready to play. I think Michigan takes this seriously though. It’s for a Big Ten Championship and that’s a team goal.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:44 AM ^
Agreed. Plus it is a somewhat misleading stat. If you are ALWAYS unranked, ANY win against a top 2 team triggers this stat.
We definitely have the more recent top 2 wins
45-23
27-42
November 27th, 2022 at 11:50 AM ^
I was really interested in the breakdown these games vs Top-2 teams. Here is what I found.
These are Purdue's wins vs Top 2 teams at the time of the game. The * denotes a #1 ranked opponent. Parentheses for Purdue's ranking at the time of the game, if ranked. (Keep in mind a lot of older polls only ranked the top 20 or, in the '60s, just the top 10):
2021 - @Iowa 24-7. Iowa finished 10-4, #23
2018 - OSU 49-20. OSU finished 13-1, #3
1984 - OSU 28-23. OSU finished 9-3, #13
1976* - Michigan 16-14. UM finished 10-2, #3
1974 - @ND 31-20. ND finished 10-2, #6
1968 - (#1) @ND 37-22. ND finished 7-2-1, #5
1967* - (#10) ND 28-21. ND finished 8-2, #5
1965* - (#6) ND 25-21. ND finished 7-2-1, #9
1960* - @Minn 23-14. Minn finished 8-2, #1
1957* - @MSU 20-13. MSU finished 8-1, #3
1954* - (#19) @ND 27-14. ND finished 9-1, #4
1953 - MSU 6-0. MSU finished 9-1, #3
1950 - @ND 28-14. ND finished 4-4-1, unranked
For balance/perspective, here are Purdue's losses vs top 2 teams (*#1):
2015 - @MSU 24-21. MSU finished 12-2, #6
1999 - (#16) Penn St 31-25. PSU finished 10-3, #11
1996 - OSU 42-14. OSU finished 11-1, #2
1991 - @Michigan 42-0. UM finished 10-2, #6
1990* - @ND 37-11. ND finished 9-3, #6
1989* - ND 40-7. ND finished 12-1, #2
1975* - OSU 35-6. OSU finished 11-1, #4
1971 - ND 8-7. ND finished 8-2, #13
1969* - (#10) @OSU 42-14. OSU finished 8-1 (LOL), #4
1966 - (#9) @MSU 41-20. MSU finished 9-0-1, #2
1965 - (#6) MSU 14-10. MSU finished 10-1, #2
1963 - @Illinois 41-21. ILL finished 8-1-1, #3
1960* - (#10) @Iowa 21-14. Iowa finished 8-1, #3
1954 - (#5) @Wisconsin 20-6. WISC finished 7-2, #9
1954 - OSU 28-6. OSU finished 10-0, #1
1953* - ND 37-7. ND finished 9-0-1, #2
1952* - (#8) vs MSU 14-7. MSU finished 9-0, #1
1949 - ND 35-12. ND finished 10-0, #1
1947* - ND 22-7. ND finished 9-0, #1
1942* - @OSU 26-0. OSU finished 9-1, #1
1940* - @ Minn 33-6. Minn finished 8-0, #1
1936* - (#5)@Minn 33-0. Minn finished 7-1, #1
I counted 13 wins total vs top-2 teams, with 22 losses. Still an excellent record, in particular for a non-blueblood program. (Though Purdue was quite good in their own right in the '60s.). They are 6-6 vs top 2 Notre Dame -- Purdue was 4-0 when ranked themselves -- 2-5 vs OSU, 2-4 vs MSU, 1-1 vs UM, 1-2 vs Minnesota.
Also, not many of the rankings of the teams played were illusory, with just five of these opponents finishing outside the top 10, and just two (1950 ND and 2021 Iowa) finishing outside the top 15. Arguable that a lot of ND teams had inflated rankings back in the very old poll era when they were the only team on TV.
All said, most of these were 50+ years ago and don't bear much relation to the 2022 Purdue or 2022 Michigan teams, in my opinion.
November 27th, 2022 at 9:59 AM ^
Michigan beat Iowa 42-3 last year in this game. I'm not worried about our staff and players' ability to take the championship game opponent seriously.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:44 AM ^
You are of course correct about the score but the final score is a little misleading as we pulled away in the fourth quarter. First half was relatively tight and it was 14-3 at half. In the second half, we saw that Iowa's offense is completely broken and it put too much stress on their defense.
Line is out for this upcoming game and I was surprised that it was as low as 14.5. I was thinking it would be close to 21 given advanced metrics. I think the team is too good to ultimately lose this game but I do think some letdown in this spot (even as a conference championship) is reasonable to expect and some tight one-score stretches. (Playing for a lot is not dispositive of outcome - see Iowa on Friday, which had a chance to win the B1G West against Nebraska at home - Nebraska.)
November 27th, 2022 at 10:47 AM ^
You are of course correct about the score but the final score is a little misleading as we pulled away in the fourth quarter. First half was relatively tight and it was 14-3 at half. In the second half, we saw that Iowa's offense is completely broken and it put too much stress on their defense.
So it was just like almost every game this year?
November 27th, 2022 at 11:33 AM ^
Right. M took a bigger first half lead than in any Big Ten game this year and still did what they do in the second half? Sounds great.
November 27th, 2022 at 12:19 PM ^
We're the Golden State Warriors of college football. We come out in the 3rd quarter and put things out of reach.
November 27th, 2022 at 11:00 AM ^
I was at that game and 14-3 felt really comfortable. Iowa's offense wasn't going to score 11. It was very obvious that cruise control was the right call at the time.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:00 AM ^
They will. They are on a mission.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:08 AM ^
...from God.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:36 AM ^
Fix the cigarette lighter
November 27th, 2022 at 11:06 AM ^
They do attribute everything to God. Edwards said in the post game that God told him in his prayers he'd have the breakout game of his career on Saturday
November 27th, 2022 at 10:02 AM ^
How many of those wins were against Ohio State? I think at least 2 of those upsets came against them. Michigan already had the focus to go on the road undefeated to beat Iowa on their own field. The thing about these games in general is if one team builds a strong lead, the opponent will quit.
November 27th, 2022 at 11:39 AM ^
I don't know if building a strong lead makes them quit. I think it is the pummeling in the trenches that does it. Eventually the score comes around.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:02 AM ^
It's a good point, though. Stay focused, Blue!
November 27th, 2022 at 10:02 AM ^
What about this team the past 2 seasons has lead you to think we take anyone lightly?
November 27th, 2022 at 10:07 AM ^
Last week's game, lol
November 27th, 2022 at 10:10 AM ^
Ok, user name checks out.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:11 AM ^
We definitely have to be on guard not to look ahead to BYE the next week.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:23 AM ^
That's a great point--the playoffs aren't for several weeks, so we can afford to focus our entire energy on a good game plan against Purdue.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:23 AM ^
Haha got em there
November 27th, 2022 at 10:52 AM ^
It’s an elusive point but the basic fact is that the Illinois game did not matter one bit for the team goals, win or lose. With that in mind, allocating anything toward the Illinois game that in any way took anything away anything from Ohio State prep would have been a waste. It would be more accurate to say that they took Illinois as irrelevant (and still won), rather than taking them lightly.
November 27th, 2022 at 1:17 PM ^
Michigan fans
lose against Illinois no worries.
lose against OSU (playoff) death!
Im not sure I understand but ok.
November 27th, 2022 at 2:35 PM ^
It’s a simple point about winning the East that has nothing to do with it per se being Ohio State, but rather that a loss or a win in the Illinois game didn’t impact winning the East; only beating Ohio State did.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:57 AM ^
I actually think Harbaugh was ok losing last week if it meant winning this week. All those guys sitting, the conservative play calling, etc. The team we saw yesterday was not what we saw last week and I think that was by design. Winning is good, but losing to Illinois doesnt ruin any of our goals
November 27th, 2022 at 11:16 AM ^
Exactly. The Illinois game was completely irrelevant. It would make zero sense to spend any time beyond the absolute bare minimum game planning for that game.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:11 AM ^
Granted we’ve won the games, but Michigan has had quite a few games that were much closer that they should have been that could be attributed to taking the opponent lightly. In addition to a few games this year where we’ve rested guys that would have played if it were an opponent we respected.
So while it hasn’t cost us, there’s a number of examples of Michigan overlooking opponents.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:25 AM ^
Those games were before Ohio State.
November 27th, 2022 at 3:50 PM ^
What does that have to do with anything? Michigan still overlooked multiple opponents over the last two years.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:46 AM ^
Other than Illinois and maybe Maryland, those were only close in the first half. And Michigan used half their starters and half their playbook to beat Illinois, who is probably the true best team in the West (yes I know Purdue beat them in Champagne -- individual results in that division are high-variance).
I think this might be the best-coached Michigan team I have ever seen. (1997 is of course the other one that comes to mind, but that team had more true studs on defense to work with.). They seem to have opponent-specific game plans with the big picture in mind. Purdue will have to play their best game of the season by far to stay within a score of Michigan.
November 27th, 2022 at 11:37 AM ^
Gonna go out on a limb and guess that 1997 roster had more NFL Hall of Famers than the current M roster but Id gladly be proven wrong in time.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:58 AM ^
True, but this game is for a trophy and championship, a team goal. The games you mentioned were during the regular season where you "manage" through the games to keep the overall team moving forward.
This is a Championship game, they don't play another game for 4 weeks after this one. There is no need to "manage" this game. It's ballz out let it all go time. Huge difference....
November 27th, 2022 at 11:29 AM ^
Michigan won 10 of 12 games by double digits....and Maryland was down by 15 with under 1:00 to go. They never trailed in the 4th quarter except against Illinois. What are these "closer than they should have been" games your referencing?
November 27th, 2022 at 3:55 PM ^
Well Illinois as you mentioned. Rutgers and Nebraska last season are two prime examples.
“Winning by double digits” doesn’t mean we took opponents seriously either. Even looking at this year, we were tied with Indiana at halftime, losing to Rutgers at halftime. You think those things occurred because we took those opponents serious? Yeah, the team snapped out of it and pulled away. But we also overlooked those teams coming into the game.
Pretending Michigan hasn’t overlooked opponents over the last two years is just willful ignorance. It’s happened, and luckily the team hasn’t been beaten by it. But you can’t rest a half dozen starters and come out with a vanilla playbook and pretend you’re taking your opponents seriously. Michigan just happens to be good enough that they can screw around for a half and then pull away from most teams.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:03 AM ^
They do/will, but they are in the CFP no matter what.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:16 AM ^
We get blown out by Purdue, I promise they find a way to discount the big ten as a whole and put someone else in.
we need to win this game.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:55 AM ^
There is space between not winning and getting blown out.
November 27th, 2022 at 11:07 AM ^
Honestly, I think Michigan could/should rest all the banged up guys -- Corum, Edwards, Morris, Schoon, Keegan, and so on. If we lose, it'd hurt, but we'd still get in and the playoff committee could just say "they didn't have their two star RBs, their two starting TEs, best pass rusher, etc etc.
Looking at Purdue's run defense, it probably doesn't matter either way. But having all those guys out almost works as insurance for getting in regardless.
November 27th, 2022 at 11:19 AM ^
This is for the Big Ten title. This game is the same as the OSU game in terms of importance.
Resting guys is an insane idea.
November 27th, 2022 at 11:09 AM ^
Dude. Relax. We just embarrassed the darling of the CFB world. On their home field. By 22. If you think we need to win on Saturday you're nuts.
November 27th, 2022 at 12:05 PM ^
We ABSOLUTELY need to win the BIG title. The playoffs is icing - BIG title is 2nd layer of the cake. I guarantee the team is focused on winning the BIG championship. Including/especially the coaches.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:04 AM ^
The past has no effect on the present. If it did, we'd have never won The Game again, as many of us sort of felt was the case lol
Michigan will beat Purdue, don't worry
November 27th, 2022 at 10:09 AM ^
I wouldn't say it has no effect. Did our guys play the Game for years feeling extra pressure because of the losing streak? Probably. (And OSU will next year.)
But there are other factors, too. The biggest one is still having the better team.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:06 AM ^
1) Michigan does not want to be the first B1G East team to lose in the Championship game.
2) Harbaugh will have his team as ready on Saturday as he did against Iowa last year.
3) Let's get more players healthy as there were no other injuries in yesterday's game.
Michigan can really slow done Mockobee the Purdue RB as they have against other potent RB all season. Maybe except Chase Brown from Illinois. They can also slow down the Purdue QB and WR given what they did the CJ Stroud and his WR pro-like players.
Definitely take Purdue seriously and they'll be fine.
November 27th, 2022 at 10:13 AM ^
1) Michigan does not want …to lose in the Championship game.
Fixed it for you!
November 27th, 2022 at 10:07 AM ^
Absolutely. They have been good about that this year, but still was an epic, enormous win to come down from yesterday to focus on next game.