Michigan back in top 10 on SP+
November 17th, 2019 at 10:01 AM ^
That was an impressive performance. No team this year has kicked the shit out of Sparty so hard. Not OSU or Wisconsin.
November 17th, 2019 at 10:19 AM ^
This got me thinking. Here's the list of losses in which Staee gave up 40+ since 2007:
2008 vs Ohio State 45
2010 vs Alabama 49
2011 vs Wisconsin 42 (scored 39)
2014 vs Oregon 46
2014 vs Ohio State 49
2016 vs Northwestern 54 (scored 40)
2016 vs Penn State 45
2017 vs Ohio State 48
2019 vs Michigan 44
Not sure what this means. All but 2 games were complete ass beatings. Narduzzi became Pitt's coach in 2014. Coincidence? I think not. That and their recruiting sucks. Hope Mork stays another season or 5.
November 17th, 2019 at 10:31 AM ^
My point in posting that is that Michigan joins some pretty rarified company (NW notwithstanding). Sure MSU sucks but they don't generally shit the bed unless they're REALLY outgunned and almost never in their Super Bowl against UM.
People will discount this win because MSU has a bad record, but it was still a big win for the state of the program. It's crazy to think that a little better play against PSU and Michigan might be heading into the OSU game with a birth in the CFP on the line again.
November 17th, 2019 at 10:35 AM ^
I'm in agreement with you, posting the numbers to back it up. Those teams that took it to Staee are all pretty/really good. It's nice to finally join that list and would be even better to put 50 on them in East Landfill next season.
November 17th, 2019 at 10:41 AM ^
I wasn't disagreeing with you either - sorry if it came out that way. I'm really hoping that we can do to MSU what we did to Rutgers that one year. The fans would call for Mark's head on the spot.
November 17th, 2019 at 1:52 PM ^
Yes, MSU's offense had a lot of injuries. However, their defense is relatively healthy and is pretty highly rated. Putting 44 on them is impressive. OSU only managed 34.
November 17th, 2019 at 12:30 PM ^
"No team this year has kicked the shit out of Sparty so hard. Not OSU or Wisconsin."
Depends on how your metric for "kicked the shit out of" is measured.
Michigan-MSU: 44-10 34pt margin
Michigan 467 total yds; 384 passing 83 rushing TOP 29:55
MSU 220 total yds; 166 passing 54 rushing TOP 30:05
247yd offensive yardage differential
Wisconsin-MSU: 38-0 38pt margin
Wisconsin 402 total yds; 180 passing 222 rushing TOP 39:10
MSU 149 total yds; 119 passing 30 rushing TOP 20:50
253yd offensive yardage differential
OSU-MSU: 34-10 24pt margin
OSU 529 total yds; 206 passing 323 rushing TOP 31:37
MSU 285 total yds; 218 passing 67 rushing TOP 28:23
244yd offensive yardage differential
If your criteria is total points scored against MSU or passing yardage, it's Michigan.
If it's point differential, yardage differential, yardage given up to MSU, or TOP, it's Wisconsin.
If it's total offensive yardage against MSU or rushing yardage, it's OSU.
November 17th, 2019 at 12:42 PM ^
I can't argue with that, but I like my story better so I'm going with points scored and passing yardage. However, I'd like to flush TOP down the toilet after our Pep experience.
November 17th, 2019 at 10:01 AM ^
Bama #2, LSU #3?
November 17th, 2019 at 10:18 AM ^
That LSU Game last night was crazy. No defense. How can a number 1 team give up that many points to a 4-6 team?
November 17th, 2019 at 1:00 PM ^
Because it's the offense era and outside of the big ten no one cares about TOP so they just try to score.
November 17th, 2019 at 10:18 AM ^
Yeah I don't understand SP+.
November 17th, 2019 at 10:57 AM ^
S&P+ is a prediction based metric (that doesn’t account for injuries) not a resume/ranking metric. LSU’s win over Bama started to close the gap between them, but not all the way. Currently LSU would be favored by ~2 at home and Bama would be favored by ~3 at home.
November 17th, 2019 at 11:13 AM ^
that parenthetical is quietly profound at this point
November 17th, 2019 at 6:14 PM ^
Bama didn't play many good teams but they were annihilating teams. The lsu game was just 1 data point. Also one in which Bama was about to score and the ball miraculously slipped out of Tua's hands. SP+ sees that play as random bad luck, not an indication that lsu is better, even though it was huge. That game could easily be different if played again (and if Tua wasn't hurt).
Also, OSU is a 2 TD favorite in SP+ over PSU. God damn. At least we get them at home. That makes us about an 11 point underdog as of today.
November 17th, 2019 at 10:07 AM ^
Good stuff
November 17th, 2019 at 10:13 AM ^
Jedd.
November 17th, 2019 at 12:57 PM ^
Have to give you credit Doc. You said MSU would be bad this season and stuck to your guns. Looks like Mork is finally out of pieces of his soul to sell.
November 17th, 2019 at 10:08 AM ^
Do wins and losses factor heavily into SP+? Or is the a play by play metric?
Basically, if Ronnie Bell catches the pass, UofM goes for two and gets it, is Michigan’s SP+ significantly higher?
November 17th, 2019 at 10:12 AM ^
No, which is why Alabama is still ranked higher than LSU.
November 17th, 2019 at 10:13 AM ^
It's the per play one, not wins.
November 17th, 2019 at 10:15 AM ^
I will take the W/L metric over SP+.
November 17th, 2019 at 6:20 PM ^
For what? For determining who should be in the playoffs? Sure. And Bill would agree with you! But for betting? You'll lose out.
I don't follow his results too closely, but it seems he has mentioned a couple times this year about how SP+ is predicting as well as ever but sometimes not doing as great against Vegas (still superior though). I wonder if people are taking SP+ into account more. You'd be stupid not to frankly.
November 17th, 2019 at 10:24 AM ^
Isn’t this the metric that predicted we would beat Ohio State last year?
November 17th, 2019 at 11:53 AM ^
Yes. It doesn't predict 100% of all outcomes.
November 17th, 2019 at 12:49 PM ^
I'd take 99%
November 17th, 2019 at 11:53 AM ^
I'm actually not sure, but I do know SP+ tends to do pretty well at picking games ATS, significantly over 50%.
November 17th, 2019 at 4:07 PM ^
He's actually something like 55% ATS
November 17th, 2019 at 10:29 AM ^
We old guys tend to prefer metrics like wins, conference championships, CFP appearances and National Championships.
November 17th, 2019 at 10:30 AM ^
I'm not old but I agree with this. But I got down voted above so.
November 17th, 2019 at 11:12 AM ^
Of course Bo never won it all and only finished in the top 4 a couple of times in his 21 years, while competing in a weaker Big Ten (no PSU, higher scholarship limits) and going up against an aging Woody/Earle Bruce/John Cooper at OSU, but we'll move the goalposts for him and call him a legend.
November 17th, 2019 at 11:56 AM ^
Don't forget all the shared B1G championships.
November 17th, 2019 at 12:09 PM ^
No one is moving any goalposts for Bo.
Should a CFP system existed in his years, he would have likely made it in:
1971, 1973, 1976, 1977 and 1988.
You can make arguments about a couple other years too.
November 17th, 2019 at 12:32 PM ^
I'd add 1974 to that list.
November 17th, 2019 at 6:58 PM ^
1980, 1986, 1985, 1989 all solid candidates.
November 17th, 2019 at 11:58 AM ^
"We old guys tend to prefer metrics like wins, conference championships, CFP appearances and National Championships."
For the 2019 season, the standings in the latter three metrics each have a 130-way tie at zero apiece.
We could have the metrics guys make a list in order of wins. We would be behind App State and Cincinnati.
Good luck with your picks vs. the spread!
November 17th, 2019 at 12:11 PM ^
So, in your view we should crown the team with the best record ATS as national champions?
November 17th, 2019 at 12:36 PM ^
That's what you gathered?
SP+ has several specific purposes outside of declaring winners and losers of games that have already been played. (We already have a procedure for that.) "Number of wins" is less predictive of who will win a future game, and by how much.
November 17th, 2019 at 11:21 AM ^
Indiana next week is a classic trap game against a pretty good team. If they show up still basking in the glow of this week’s win while thinking ahead to OSU, there could be a real problem.
November 17th, 2019 at 12:01 PM ^
People have been calling that a trap so long, I'm not even sure it's a trap. Like a band that everyone says is underrated, it kinda makes them overrated.
November 17th, 2019 at 2:08 PM ^
I agree, except that everyone is taking Indiana serious. They are a good team and certainly capable of beating Michigan if Michigan has a letdown. OSU has to be on their game vs PSU too. That is a tough game for OSU just before Michigan. Do I think OSU will beat PSU? Absolutely, but if they are looking forward to Michigan they can be beat.
November 17th, 2019 at 6:24 PM ^
I disagree. Indiana is too good to be considered a trap game. Plus, it's usually after a big , emotionally draining victory, not a blowout. We'll only be slight favorites in SP+, about 2 or 3 points.
November 17th, 2019 at 11:52 AM ^
Keep winning! Baylor and Auburn losing helped our cause.
November 17th, 2019 at 12:03 PM ^
In SP+? Not really. Only thing that helps is our own performance (mostly YPP differential) and the positive performance of the teams on our schedule.
November 17th, 2019 at 6:26 PM ^
Getting into the playoffs? Hard to see that. We'll have 2 good wins, 3rd in the division. I'm pretty sure no 2 loss non conference champ has gotten in or even been seriously in contention. I'll be so happy if we beat OSU I won't mind being out of the playoffs.
November 17th, 2019 at 7:01 PM ^
Big ten east the second hardest conference and big ten west the fourth. Wow. ACC is go garbage.
November 19th, 2019 at 7:01 PM ^
This seemed like the best thread for this: just wanted to say that it was an impressive victory. I was switching back and forth b/w various games (including Penn State escaping Indiana) but it was clear from what I saw that Shea looked really comfortable and mobile. Seemed like he got pretty good protection and from a purely football-appreciation perspective, it was nice to see your squad of receivers getting some action.
So I know we're less than 2 weeks out from That Which Causes Great Angst and Agitation Among Adults Who Sometimes Wonder Why We Live and Die for a College Football Team. Seems predictable that people on both sides will hurl slurs that range from funny to truly offensive. Just wanted to say that you guys are looking very different from the team that struggled with Army. I'm hoping I have enough Xanax to take me from Penn State this week to you guys next.