Michigan and OSU versus common opponents - some data

Simple formula needed … MH will get his yards just like 2021 when their trio of wrs got theirs … the key is to stop Henderson from running wild … plain and simple you stop the run control the line you WIN THE GAME !!!! BET 

Thanks for the information!  This was done on a weekly basis last year by BuckeyeChuck.  All data seemed to point towards OSU in The Game.  We all know how that turned out.  I think data is always important and valuable, but The Game may be one of the only matches where stats, numbers, and few times even talent is thrown out the window.  I believe for the first time in a long time, we have the better team and if both teams play their best game, we will win (especially playing at home), but this OSU team is very talented and are out for blood.  I love Sherrone Moore, but not having Harbaugh does give me some concerns, but I do believe we have outstanding senior leadership that should be enough to pull out a victory. Go Blue!

At face value this looks pretty even.  But there are a few high leverage areas where the difference is meaningful:

3rd down conversion: 50% for MI vs. 38% for Ohio State

4th down conversion: 90% for MI vs. 50% for Ohio State

Interceptions: either 8 or 10 for MI vs. 4 for Ohio State

Michigan's run-pass selection is heavily skewed toward run, 62/38

We are better at staying on the field and keeping drives alive than Ohio State, in general.  We are better at stealing possessions via interceptions.  These are two huge benefits in an otherwise evenly matched contest, and if Michigan is able to keep those rates in this game, we should win.

On the other hand, Michigan's penchant for running in unusual scenarios, and just for running very often, could bite us in this game, and I hope we come with a strong game plan for the passing attack to take advantage of what Ohio State gives through the air.

Ok well that's all interesting but a bit misleading, I think you have filter out (1) the effect of UM having teams' signs for the first half of the season, (2) the impact of not having or not having JMFH on the sidelines, and (3) the factoid if your best out of conference opponent only pays 10 defenders on the critical game-winning play which proves your "toughness"?

I was looking at it yesterday, not as deeply as this, just comparing performances against common opponents, taking into account home or away, and margin of victory. I'll give them a tiny nod for the hardly dominating Notre Dame road win, but that's literally it. The idea that they have some dramatically better resume than Michigan is ludicrous, and is being hyped to pre-justify backing them, once again, into the Playoff following a loss to Michigan, should that happen.

Thank you for this! My takeaways:
1. We're a cleaner team. Fewer mistakes, higher efficiency, more benefits from opponent mistakes.

2. Despite not feeling like our RBs are quite as dominant as they were last year, they're a clear asset- more YPP on more plays than the bad guys.

3. They're strongest early in the count- only 26% of their 1st downs came from 3rd or 4th down, v. 36% of ours. Make them grind it out and we've got this.

4. Fuck 'em.

Thanks for this week, which I was about to do myself this morning. 
 

one important anomaly within this analysis: against common opponents, OSU played three on the road  — PU, RU and IU. Michigan common opps were scheduled in complete opposite of this with  four on the road against MSU, PSU, MN and MD. 
The difference in quality of road opponents is significant. I think Michigan did quite a bit better with that context added. 

Just score more points than those bastards! 

Let's get some takeaways this weekend!

Very close stats 

Cyan Day: no team is tougher than us

Maury Povich: your third down efficiency says that’s a lie

Beat Ohio

Oddity in the data?

Yards per play - they outgain us by .1. But, we outgain them in yards per attempt and yards per rush. Is yards per play factoring in some external thing that isnt just the sum of yards per rush and yards per pass? Like punting? I assume sacks and turnovers etc are all factored in... so how are they outgaining us on a per play basis. What's the other data point that they win so significantly to outdo our advantage on the ground (.2) and by air (.7)?

I am glad we are at home  (I am glad we have Corum this time)

We will win if we get pressure on McCord and stop their run  (I know, thanks captain obvious)

I figure Harrison is going to have his moments and we just need a couple moments of our own (Hope #2 brings his A Game)

I have a feeling this game will be decided in last few minutes (X-factor= JJ McCarty running the ball is the reason we win)

The penalty numbers above + B1G conspiracy against Michigan = does not compute.

I hate you ohio state

This is good stuff. Bottom line is whoever's oline is better Saturday will be the winner. 

We are +10 on the turnover battle against common opponents vs break-even for Osu.  This game should be very tight given the strength of the defenses.  Whoever wins the turnover battle, likely wins this game.  I expect it to be much closer than the prior two.  

The numbers show what I would have suspected from the eye test.  It's close, very close.  From a recency bias perspective, OSU has looked like world beaters against MSU and Minnesota the last 2 weeks, while Michigan had to work harder with PSU and Maryland in the same timeframe.  But a month ago, the situations were reversed; Michigan was hammering MSU and Minnesota while OSU was sweating it out against Maryland and PSU.  

One looks markedly better than the other. Go Blue 

I remember when OSU posted on twitter that they scored 35 points against Rutgers and Michigan only scored 31 neglecting the fact that OSU also gave up 16 against Rutgers while Michigan gave up only 7 that came on the first drive of the game.  They also neglected the fact that the win margin for Michigan was +5 against Rutgers compared to OSU's.

Interesting and suggests closely matched teams.  But when you play a team seems to matter a lot.  Teams get hot and cool off.  Michigan was rolling for awhile mid-season, and seems less dominant lately with all the distractions.  Ohio’s defense seems to have improved as the season has progressed.  Hoping the team can put aside the noise and deliver an emphatic “take your PI firm and performative outrage and stick it up Daylily’s ass.”

Appreciate you pulling this data. But none of this means shit for Saturday. 

This will come down to turnovers. With that being said, Fuck bitch ass day. Fuck ohio. Fuck the big ten. Let’s bring home the win 

Remember also Michigan took JJ and many starters out early in many games. 

Small fix: Ohio State allowed 61 points, not 68