Michigan -9.5 at Purdue
For my fellow gambling degenerates.
Michigan is currently -9.5 at Purdue. The line has bounced back and forth between 8-10. Purdue is 2-1 and more importantly for some 3-0 ATS.
For value purposes, I have a bet from preseason on this game of Purdue +22, so quite the dramatic shift in 3 weeks.
Michigan also 3-0, but only 1-2 ATS.
Purdue is off to a great start but will have major disadvantages in the trenches on both sides of the ball (they only have 1 sack on the year). So who's laying the points this weekend?
Also of interest:
Notre Dame -3.5 at MSU
UNLV +39 at Ohio State
EDIT: Updated Purdue's record, they are 2-1* but 3-0 ATS
September 17th, 2017 at 10:28 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 10:31 PM ^
This isn't the point I would make, as GT ran for over 500yds on UT (granted with 2 overtimes), but we are on the same side. Florida is much better than Purdue.
September 17th, 2017 at 10:53 PM ^
September 18th, 2017 at 10:32 AM ^
Ohio is one of the top 4 teams in the MAC and the favorite to win the East. They just got done absolutely mashing a P5 team (albeit Kansas).
September 17th, 2017 at 10:15 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 10:17 PM ^
Our D is elite, which is above average.
September 18th, 2017 at 12:11 AM ^
above terrible passer this year. And our first road game (where we really haven't been very good under Harbaugh).
I think we win, I even think we'll cover but it is crazy and somewhat depressing how far this line (justifiably) has moved since the start of the season.
For a game that was projected at about a 95 percent chance win before the season, we're probably down to about 75 percent, which is enough for me to be nervous.
September 18th, 2017 at 7:17 AM ^
Feleipe Franks is a much better passer than either of Purdue's QBs. Passing offense, play call, yada yada be damned, Franks is better than Blough and Sindelar. Now will Purdue's offense be better coached? Yeah, probably. But they're still at a major step down talent-wise from Florida's QB and Florida's skill players and Florida's OL.
September 18th, 2017 at 9:50 AM ^
I'm not a guy who lives and dies by the 247 composite, but in the last 5 years, Purdue has zero players who were ranked 4-star or better.
September 18th, 2017 at 10:20 AM ^
You lose a lot of credibility when you say things like "Ohio team that will finish in the bottom half of the MAC this year".
Do you watch football outside of the Big Ten?
September 17th, 2017 at 9:45 PM ^
But 9.257 or below means our season is doomed. Nordin had better supply the nearly 0.25 point difference or else we need to replace the entire program or something. (cough)
September 17th, 2017 at 9:46 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 9:48 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 9:52 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 9:56 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 11:16 PM ^
And Northwestern looked much better against BGSU than MSU did. Transative property doesn't consistently mean anything, but Northwestern got molly whopped by Duke. I think MSU is going to crumble down the stretch, starting with this week.
September 18th, 2017 at 12:17 AM ^
was to USC and Western ran all over USC but couldn't really do anything against MSU. They have looked better than expected, certainly. Small sample size, yes, but their defense has looked surprisingly good.
September 18th, 2017 at 8:37 AM ^
I think USC was over looking WMU as some G5 scrub they'd clean the Coliseum with, while WMU pointed to USC all off-season. Probably shouldn't read too much into that... I think MSU has been living on some luck so far this season.
September 17th, 2017 at 9:56 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 11:46 PM ^
saw that with my own 2 eyes last night.
September 17th, 2017 at 9:58 PM ^
This opened 7-7.5 and has been bet down to 3.5. So early money has been on MSU.
Notre Dame obviously has more talent, but they are on b2b road games, and MSU is off a bye and it is a home game at night.
September 17th, 2017 at 11:12 PM ^
Does playing back-to-back road games really matter when they are a week apart? This isn't like an NBA schedule.
Playing at night in EL could be a factor, though.
September 18th, 2017 at 12:23 AM ^
and you play the first game in Australia and then the second one in Michigan, it probably matters. But for ND traveling 2.5 hours on a bus to EL, it's probably no more challenging than a regular road game.
September 17th, 2017 at 9:54 PM ^
Surprisingly magical events occur in their stadium. I win no matter what because schadenfreude for the team that loses it. Still, it's better that Staee wins because B1G, same state, artificial confidence on their part, Douchetonio promises for our game, and October 7 when we win. And we don't play the domers this regular season. Let the stakes be B1G.
September 17th, 2017 at 11:13 PM ^
Nah, it's better for us for MSU to suck. We don't want to face a confident MSU. We want to face one that is pointing fingers over its continued disappointing play.
September 17th, 2017 at 11:26 PM ^
out of MSU this year whether they are confident or not. They are depleted on defense. If we can't beat Sparty this year - I am not looking forward to the back half of the season.
They beat ND last year - how did that work out for them?
Screw Sparty, and to hell with Notre Dame. I am hoping for 4 overtimes caused by inept play, with both sides inflicting a lot of pain and some non-serious injuries.
September 17th, 2017 at 9:55 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 10:02 PM ^
Plays Staee in East Lansing this 2017 season.
September 17th, 2017 at 10:33 PM ^
(That's what he said.)
The "they" refers to MSU's defense.
September 17th, 2017 at 10:55 PM ^
My reply responded to grammar and, despite having a 65-inch reviewing screen, I failed to see the relation to the subthread OP. I shall now prepare a delightful supper, arrange my week, and attack a wine bottle.
September 17th, 2017 at 10:00 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 10:10 PM ^
September 18th, 2017 at 7:44 AM ^
September 18th, 2017 at 7:48 AM ^
September 18th, 2017 at 10:35 AM ^
I personally think ND wins, but a bunch of people are forgetting that MSU's 3-9 squad last year beat ND and Dantonio has had their number his entire career. ND tends to play like shit in EL.
September 17th, 2017 at 10:25 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 11:20 PM ^
We will win by 14+ and the game will never be in doubt.
September 17th, 2017 at 9:51 PM ^
September 18th, 2017 at 12:26 AM ^
won't again be lights out? Because it certainly has been so far.
The offense is another story, of course, but I'm not worried about the defense.
September 18th, 2017 at 9:07 AM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 9:51 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 9:58 PM ^
I bet they'll torch us two scoring plays with several field goals to boot. Our O wins or loses the game for us. Probably wins but I suspect there will be stretches where the doubt and questions arise.
September 18th, 2017 at 8:54 AM ^
I'm gonna disagree on this. They'll get 1 TD on a big play. Other than that, they aren't going to sustain anything. If they get a lot of FG's, it's because the offense is turning it over in thier zone. Don Brown's defense is something that Brohm simply doesn't have the players to attack successfully. The DL is going to make Purdue's OL look like a bunch of high schooler's and Hudson, Bush, and Metellus won't need help from the corners to stop the run.
Offensively, don't expect anything flashy. We'll see a bunch of basic vanilla runs to emphasize OL blocking work, with some equally generic work in the passing game. Harbaugh will seek to control the game, not necessarily blow out Purdue.
September 17th, 2017 at 10:24 PM ^
I'll go on the record and say that we're probably going to need about 30 or so to probably get a comfortable margin to work with. Purdue will probably score a couple times, and while I trust the defense to keep us in any game and special teams to keep doing what they do, I am far more interested in the vibe that comes from practice on offense this week. Purdue is a shot to get a couple things right, so we need to take advantage of it.
September 17th, 2017 at 11:10 PM ^
34-20 Michigan. Comfortable enough.
September 17th, 2017 at 9:56 PM ^
feels like an underestimation of what we can do and an overestimation of the Boilers. But I am not gonna give the points and bet the house
September 17th, 2017 at 10:02 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 10:09 PM ^
Purdue
Air Force
Florida
Cincinnati
For the first half of this regular season only.
September 17th, 2017 at 11:12 PM ^
Purdue is not better than Florida.
September 17th, 2017 at 10:18 PM ^