Michigan's Value to B1G

Submitted by BallsoHarb on November 13th, 2023 at 5:05 PM

I apologize if this doesn't look right (first time putting in a table).

I went through and looked at the viewership ratings from all B1G teams from the 2022 season to get a proxy on Michigan's value to the league.

Data is pulled from sportsmediawatch.com. In the bottom column is the viewership of the team without Michigan on their schedule, to be fair I pulled OSU off of ours.

Couple of interesting data points I noticed:

  • Michigan - OSU game alone gets more or near equal viewership ratings as any other team's SEASON (Except PSU)
  • If you removed Michigan from the schedule, 36% of viewership is lost (that does not account for putting a different team in their place, but OSU can only be on one field at a time)
  • Except OSU, no two teams' seasons combined reaches the viewership total that Michigan does.

Some caveats apply: Michigan is usually on a larger network (Fox vs. BTN). Our worst rating non-conference game that year was against Hawaii on BTN at approximately 1 million viewers. Team success likely affects ratings (but is it the chicken or the egg?).

Also of note - Oregon vs. Wash last year only got 3.63 million viewers. USC generally got between 2 and 4 million viewers on their schedule. So while there are some big names coming, there is still a clear top two.

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Johnny Blood

November 13th, 2023 at 5:58 PM ^

Really good work here and it is clear that we have more viewers by far than anyone in the conference than OSU.

I think there is more to than just having more viewers though.  I'm not sure how advertisers would measure it, but I would bet that our viewers are also more valuable to them from a commercial perspective than just about any other school in the conference as well.  For example, the average starting salary of a University of Michigan graduate is $56,200 per a website called "College Simply".  That same sites lists the average starting salaries for the rest of the Big 10 East schools as:

Michigan State: $42,700
Penn State: $41,900
Ohio State: $39,300
Rutgers: $46,300
Indiana: $41,900
Maryland: $47,800

I only looked at a few of the Big 10 West schools (the ones I thought may be high) and they are also lower than Michigan.  Purdue's is $47,200 and Wisconsin is $47,100.

Net, I think the overall takeaway is that Michigan not only has more viewers than anyone in the conference other than OSU, but also has more valuable viewers than anyone in the conference period.  

Joined: 12/22/2010

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UMLaw1997

November 13th, 2023 at 6:00 PM ^

I am curious how all of this pencils out in the network decision-making process.  The networks get their choices and the biggest games get the best slots (e.g, Big Noon).  Where there are now good games that usually include one of UM, OSU, and PSU, next year will add Oregon, USC, and Washington.  Plus whoever is good among Wisconsin, Iowa, UCLA, MSU, etc.  That should easily fill the FOX and NBC slots, with the rest getting the other games.  

In an imaginary world where Michigan does not exist in the Big Ten, there are lots of other potentially good matchups to fill those slots.  Most will not be as good as UM, and some will be a substantial dropoff, but there is lots of inventory.  Of course, UM would also lose its biggest games too.

I have no idea what the numbers might be, but I think the commenters who have suggested that a bigger conference reduces the impact of any single school are probably right.  Even if you pretend UM would want out of one of the two best conferences in America, if you include the transaction (and travel) costs, it would likely be quite negative for many years.

I suspect that heads will cool after the next two games (or whatever the resolution is) and that UM will want to work from within to create better safeguards and perhaps try to insure that there's a new commissioner fairly soon.  Just my $.02.

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SagNasty

November 13th, 2023 at 6:11 PM ^

There is no guarantee that the west schools continue being good. Hell look at USC’s record this season. I don’t think travel costs are as big of a deal anymore. West Virginia is in the big 12 and they make it work. I don’t get your point of “heads cooling off” How can Michigan ever trust the big ten and its members again ? Is Michigan supposed to just get over it? Fuck that. 

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UMLaw1997

November 13th, 2023 at 6:25 PM ^

As any long-time Michigan fan can tell you, there's no guarantee Michigan will continue to be good.  It has not always been CFP season after CFP season.  Just look at what happened to basketball, to take one recent example.

All sports travel, so the academic and financial costs tend to add up and they are incurred every year, forever.

When contemplating a change, people tend to assume that everything they like will stay the same and everything they dislike will change for the better.  This rarely occurs.  And being the new one in the conference does not mean maximum influence, at least not in any conference you'd want to join.  You go from one of the big boys to the new guy, unfamiliar with the politics and alliances of the new conference.  Plus, less money and the loss of all traditional rivals.

I'm not saying it is an impossible case to make, but leaving something as successful as the Big Ten would require a very high burden of proof.

Perhaps "get over it" is less useful than "let it go."  How mad will people really be if Harbaugh is coaching in the Big Ten Championship game in a few weeks?

 

 

Joined: 10/31/2021

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SagNasty

November 13th, 2023 at 6:33 PM ^

You really think just winning a big 10 championship will make things all better? I think you are a little disconnected from the current pulse. I know Michigan could definitely have some down years. I have lived it as a season ticket holder for the last 15 years. And a fan for much longer. Part of the reason the big ten conference is so successful is because of Michigan. Take Michigan out of the conference and it’s basically the big 12. 

Joined: 06/22/2011

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UMLaw1997

November 13th, 2023 at 6:47 PM ^

I don't think there's much that suddenly makes everything "all better."  But there's a lot that could happen to make it less bad, including success and time.  And the sober evaluation of the other realistic options. 

I confess that a wait and see attitude might not reflect the pulse of the MGoBlog message boards.  But this board might only reflect a sliver of the overall Michigan community too.  I do not know, but my experience is that knee-jerk reactions can be temporarily cathartic but longer-term disappointments.

Joined: 10/31/2021

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Tex_Ind_Blue

November 13th, 2023 at 9:46 PM ^

I am not saying that I am against any change. I am agreeing with the thought that when things change, it just won't be the bad parts that will go away. Law of unintended consequences.  Some things that are held dear by the Michigan faithful might change as well. I don't know what they are. But there will be changes in the currently "good" things.

Michigan should consider different scenarios before making the jump. 

Joined: 12/31/2014

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BallsoHarb

November 13th, 2023 at 6:22 PM ^

Washington did play MSU that season, it was billed as a prime-time game on ABC and received 2.79 million views. Michigan and UConn got just over 2 million with a noon kick-off, same carrier. Our overall value is definitely diminished by more teams in the league, but I think its still going to be around 20%.  

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BallsoHarb

November 13th, 2023 at 6:27 PM ^

We played Penn State on the Alabama-Tennessee weekend. Different time slots, but that game was getting all the hype so I expect advertising played a role. We also shared a time-slot with Texas. I also think we picked up a lot of national interest at the end of the year, we got 5 million views against Illinois.

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Catchafire

November 13th, 2023 at 6:13 PM ^

Michigan may not leave the BIG in the short term, but if*

ND joins a conference not named the BIG and the SEC makes a super league, I don't think the BIG will find an ally in Michigan.

Joined: 09/30/2009

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dragonchild

November 13th, 2023 at 6:25 PM ^

Imagine being at a BoD meeting of a multi-billion-dollar company and the CEO proudly announces he’s going to set one-third of the company’s revenue on fire.

And everyone loudly cheers.  In fact they suggested, nay, demanded it.

It’s time to leave.

Joined: 10/13/2011

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Gob Wilson

November 13th, 2023 at 6:25 PM ^

Would be interesting to find out the AD vote against UM on Friday. If you weight the scores by this table, what is the net-net? I think it's negative for us but the vote tally would be interesting and I am sure Warde knows.

Clearly, OSU voted against UM so cancels UM's weight, but what about the others? For example, if PJ Fleck voted to wait until the NCAA investigation was complete this could be cancelled out by MSU, etc., etc. 

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