Max UM reaching CFP: best scenario between PSU, Maryland & OSU playing each other?
Before UM plays PSU, Maryland and OSU, All 3 of those teams will have already faced each other.
Yes, yes, yes...we all want OSU to lose every game from now to the end of time. However, let's apply some logic to the scenario that best helps Michigan reach the CFP:
So when Maryland plays OSU, OSU plays PSU and Maryland plays PSU, for those three games, who does Michigan want to win each of those games, to maximize Michigan's chances of reaching the CFP?
#GoBlue
October 2nd, 2023 at 2:52 PM ^
I think last year was our best shot. I just can't imagine we're going to face another team like TCU in the semi-finals this year, and I think Georgia (as witnessed in their semi-final game) was beatable.
Obviously I'm hopeful about this year, and there's no doubt having a more experienced team will help, but ... man, I can't help feeling that the stars aligned for us last year, and we tripped over our own feet.
October 2nd, 2023 at 3:11 PM ^
I think this team is better than last year's
And I don't think there's a clear cut best team so far this year.
We tripped over our own feet in the TCU game but I think Georgia would have beaten us anyways
October 3rd, 2023 at 9:12 AM ^
Agreed they had a great shot last year but IMO this year is the best shot. I think UGA would have beat M again last year. They dont have Bennett at QB this season and they don't look as dominant as they did the previous two seasons.
October 2nd, 2023 at 1:47 PM ^
If Maryland beats OSU and PSU then I think we suddenly have something else to be more focused on.
October 2nd, 2023 at 2:52 PM ^
I also think I'm gonna win the lotto
October 2nd, 2023 at 1:50 PM ^
Just win every game. It's really that simple.
October 2nd, 2023 at 1:51 PM ^
Best situation for Michigan is that OSU wins out and then an undefeated Michigan beats OSU in The Game.
October 2nd, 2023 at 8:45 PM ^
I'd prefer to see Maryland defeat OSU and probably PSU and then Michigan defeats Maryland and a week later, defeats OSU, too.
Michigan leads in total wins, but trails in historical winning percentage, so I want to see OSU lose every time they play.
October 2nd, 2023 at 2:04 PM ^
Michigan is win-and-in this year. So we don’t really care.
Ohio State reached the playoffs despite losing to us last year, and didn’t exactly embarrass themselves.
I don’t see Penn State beating us or Ohio State.
So I guess it depends on whether we see Ohio State as 1) dangerous but beatable, 2) VERY beatable, or 3) “we definitely want to see you again in the Playoffs” beatable.
If (2) or (3), we want Ohio State to win out until their game with us. If (1), I could see myself rooting for a Penn State win over OSU, provided that they do so in a manner which exposes an exploitable weakness
October 2nd, 2023 at 2:09 PM ^
We want them all to go 1-1 against each other, right? And then all take their L against M
October 2nd, 2023 at 2:10 PM ^
We want OSU to lose to PSU and Maryland both because then OSU is out of the playoff picture even with a win over Michigan.
We should root for OSU and their whiny, stained blackbeard coach to lose every F*()&^ game.
OSU should have 1 loss already if it weren't for the spirit of Frames Janklin taking over coaching at the end of the game.
October 2nd, 2023 at 2:26 PM ^
Right. If we make the BIG championship game it's hard to see us not making the CFP. That said, now that ND decided it was a good idea to only play 10 fucking guys the last 2 plays... I just don't see OSU losing 2 games before they play us. I've seen stranger things happen but that just seems like a really unlikely scenario at this stage.
October 3rd, 2023 at 7:16 AM ^
This Maryland game coming up could be a trap game. Emotional game they should have lost, then a bye week. No way did they figure out their soft spots in that offense and defense. I don’t think it’s likely but that seems like a game they could easily overlook.
October 2nd, 2023 at 2:12 PM ^
The real question is how the rest of the country plays out. I'd prefer they go 1-1 against each other, M does their thing, but chaos reigns across the PAC, B12 and SEC. Let's see 2 Ls to start eliminating some teams.
I think, however, 2 B1G teams will make it (M and PS-OS winner), then you have Texas, SEC winner, PAC winner as the candidates for the other 2 spots. I think FSU is going to get upset once or twice, though FSU-Miami looms larger than anyone expected.
October 2nd, 2023 at 7:33 PM ^
100% this. I don’t think anyone is coming out of the PAC 12 unbeaten. Same w/Tx and Ok… I thnk Ga could get popped too, so it will be about OSU game IMO…
October 2nd, 2023 at 8:55 PM ^
Oklahoma is the last ranked team on Texas' schedule, so not sure where that loss will come from.
Georgia's looked vulnerable too, but close scares often have the effect of putting top teams into a higher gear.
October 2nd, 2023 at 2:12 PM ^
I want PSU undefeated until the Michigan game, Maryland with 1 loss and OSU with 8 straight losses to finish out the season
October 2nd, 2023 at 8:59 PM ^
I'd switch that around to hoping Maryland beats PSU and they are undefeated, PSU has the 1 loss when we play them the next week, and OSU loses every game for the rest of the decade.
October 2nd, 2023 at 2:16 PM ^
It doesn’t matter.
October 2nd, 2023 at 2:20 PM ^
PSU loses 2
that way if we lose at PSU and win out we are in
I view that game as the toughest remaining game
those 3 going 1-1 against each other is the worst case because then we have to still win out
October 2nd, 2023 at 3:23 PM ^
Agreed with this being UM's best scenario for making the CFP. Problem is, PSU's remaining schedule is as easy, perhaps even easier than Michigan's remaining schedule.
#GoBlue
October 2nd, 2023 at 2:28 PM ^
That’s easy— Ohio State loses to all three and Michigan beats all three.
October 2nd, 2023 at 2:29 PM ^
Root for OSU to lose both of those games. Last year proved that a Michigan loss doesnt eliminate them from the playoff. The worse OSU does, the better for Michigan.
October 2nd, 2023 at 2:38 PM ^
At this moment I'd put UM losing at PSU slightly higher probability than UM losing at home to OSU, so practically speaking you want to knock PSU out of the Big 10 race earlier because I think a 12-1 Big 10 title winner gets into any playoff we see. But honestly UM probably gets the benefit of the doubt because of what they've done the past couple of years provided their loss is reasonable.
October 2nd, 2023 at 2:50 PM ^
I don't see Penn State losing another game beside OSU, so Michigan at Penn State may be a must win situation. Unfortunately, 11-1 Penn State > 11-1 Michigan
October 2nd, 2023 at 3:02 PM ^
If all teams end with one loss the winner of OSU/UM will have a huge advantage. Obviously head to head but then a top 5 victory to finish the regular season. Penn St would probably be 1 spot behind us if that happened.
October 2nd, 2023 at 3:24 PM ^
*** edit: unintentional double post ***
October 2nd, 2023 at 3:26 PM ^
Maybe. Personally, I think the "trump card" in any multiple 11-1 teams situation will be the Division Title/Conference Championship. Whichever B1G team has that will have a huge leg up for the CFP.
The 3-way (if all 8-1) tiebreaker would be decided by aggregate winning % of West foes. And among the 4 East contenders, it's likely (though not certain, this is heavily based on presuming Wisconsin does well in the West) that tie-breaker would favor OSU, then U-M, then PSU, then Maryland
There's are non-inplausible possibilities of U-M being 10-1 but effectively "shut out" of winning the B1G East even before the OSU game. Namely, Wisconsin wins the West, OSU wins out prior to U-M, U-M drops one game (be it to MD or PSU), and that school wins all their other games (x OSU).
We'll see how it goes. But IF we get no undefeated B1G teams and multiple 11-1 B1G teams, it's going to be awfully muddy.
October 2nd, 2023 at 3:02 PM ^
How do you figure that?
October 2nd, 2023 at 3:29 PM ^
If PSU defeats Michigan, Ohio State defeats PSU and Michigan defeats OSU, that creates a circular transitive (assuming all 3 teams finish with 1 loss) that cannot be solved by which team defeated which team. The B1G, in that scenario, decides who wins the B1G east by the team that is ranked highest in the regular season-ending CFP poll.
If UM loses a close one to PSU, OSU defeats PSU, and UM defeats OSU, then UM has the best chance of those 3 teams of being the highest ranked team in the CFP. The last thing the CFP voters will see before they vote is UM defeating their arch-rival before the CFP committee ranks UM, PSU and OSU.
October 2nd, 2023 at 3:35 PM ^
No, this is wrong. The CFP committee is definitely NOT how the B1G decides, in a 3-way 8-1 division tie, who goes to Indianapolis.
It would come down to aggregate winning percentage of each team's cross-division foes.
If we're looking simply at OSU & Michigan (presuming they're both part of a 3-way 8-1 tie): they both play Purdue & Minnesota. OSU also plays Wisconsin and U-M of course just played Nebraska.
There's no guarantee Wisconsin will have a better B1G record than Nebraska. But if they do, and if OSU & U-M are both part of this 3-way 8-1 tie, then U-M isn't going to Indy.
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(on a side note: having the division be decided by the CFP committee sounds absolutely horrible. A closed-door decision with no transparency??? Who could want that? That sounds like Washington DC politics on steroids.)
October 2nd, 2023 at 4:13 PM ^
Here's the procedure in determining the representative in a tiebreaker:
https://bigten.org/news/2011/8/10/Big_Ten_Conference_Football_Divisional_Tiebreaker.aspx
October 2nd, 2023 at 3:21 PM ^
Ignore me. I'm dumb.
You all should be happy that I'm not the one deciding the tiebreaker.
October 2nd, 2023 at 2:46 PM ^
We need all 3 to take a boneheaded loss and the rest is gravy. Maryland sneaks up on some one, just pray it’s not us. I got in early in Maryland beating OSU this week.
October 2nd, 2023 at 2:57 PM ^
OSU to lose all 3. We can figure out the rest.
October 2nd, 2023 at 2:58 PM ^
i think we’ll all be undefeated at the end of the season.
October 2nd, 2023 at 9:09 PM ^
...well, till Saturday morning at least
October 2nd, 2023 at 3:11 PM ^
A meteor?
October 2nd, 2023 at 3:14 PM ^
I think the question is really what maximizes UM's odds of a playoff berth with 1 loss. It looks like it'll be hard for two big 10 teams to get in this year.
So, I'd say M loses to Penn State. PSU loses to OSU and MD. M beats OSU, goes to Big 10 champ. game on head-to-head tiebreaker.
If there's a better path to two berths, its to lose closely to an undefeated OSU in a competitive game, and home there's enough chaos elsewhere taht committee overlooks M's schedule issues.
October 2nd, 2023 at 3:30 PM ^
If PSU defeats Michigan, Ohio State defeats PSU and Michigan defeats OSU, that creates a circular transitive (assuming all 3 teams finish with 1 loss) that cannot be solved by which team defeated which team. The B1G, in that scenario, decides who wins the B1G east by the team that is ranked highest in the regular season-ending CFP poll.
If UM loses a close one to PSU, OSU defeats PSU, and UM defeats OSU, then UM has the best chance of those 3 teams of being the highest ranked team in the CFP. The last thing the CFP voters will see is UM defeating their arch-rival before the CFP committee ranks UM, PSU and OSU.
October 2nd, 2023 at 3:58 PM ^
Youre somewhat right, but he said that PSU lost to MD and OSU
Edit: My understanding is that if the big 3 in the B10 East all split, then because most of the tiebreakers won't help.. the next one up is the record of opponents they played in the west - for us, Nebraska, Illinois, Minnesota... woof.
October 2nd, 2023 at 3:36 PM ^
Considering how strong the PAC-12 looks this season, and how well Texas is playing, I think it's likely only one B1G team will reach the CFP this season.
#GoBlue
October 3rd, 2023 at 12:15 AM ^
Yes, because you can be sure they will not leave out the SEC champion, no matter what.
October 2nd, 2023 at 3:49 PM ^
ohio will come into the BigHouse with one loss, they will leave with two.
October 2nd, 2023 at 3:57 PM ^
I want us to win out and not have to care. If we get into the round robin game, I'm sure we lose out n the playoff. With this year so many teams vying for the top 4... I don't see us making it through if we lose 1 game and dont make the B10 title game. It'll be a mess. The 12 team playoff is really a year late.
This year we need it.
Oregon, Texas, USC, ND, OSU, Georgia, Michigan, Penn Shtate, Wazzou??, Oklahoma, Florida State,
These teams aren't all equal, but they're all at LEAST good and that doesnt even count teams like Bama, Utah (with Cam rising), Oregon State, etc...
October 2nd, 2023 at 4:25 PM ^
My hope is that there is only one Big 10 team in the playoffs. OSU backing in last year was terrible (thanks USC). If we take care of business we will be in.
October 2nd, 2023 at 5:44 PM ^
Yes- OSU backing in was bullshit after being crushed at home!
October 2nd, 2023 at 5:34 PM ^
Yes, yes, yes...we all want OSU to lose every game from now to the end of time
That's it. You answered your own question, thanks for playing!
October 2nd, 2023 at 6:03 PM ^
It doesn’t matter. We’re not getting in with 1 loss. Not with the weak strength of schedule combined with the resurgence of FSU and Texas and the strength of the PAC12.
October 3rd, 2023 at 12:18 AM ^
I think we would still be in as long as we were the Big Ten Champion. I don't think the other 4 P5 conferences are all going to have undefeated champions.