November 30th, 2021 at 7:57 PM ^
Yep. problem is we may play Georgia in the semis. Tough call to put OSU over Georgia based on that loss to Iowa State.
Best case scenario, for me anyway, is for UGA to knock off Bama and Cincinnati to beat Utah. OSU presents some problems for UGA.
Who knows though? Just beat Iowa!
November 30th, 2021 at 7:58 PM ^
Probably not. Alabama would go to #1, and UM and UGA would be #2/#3. So the path to the Championship would go through both of those teams. Worse case scenario for us (assuming that we beat Iowa). Regardless...onward to Iowa! Go Blue!!
November 30th, 2021 at 8:00 PM ^
I actually think they’d jump Bama to 1…they just took down the top team for most of the season & you know how hard it is to win the SEC!!! (Barf) Could end up being worst case scenario for us as there would be 3 teams at 12-1 (assuming we win)…I could see that ending with:
1 - Bama, 2 - UGA, 3 - UM, 4 - UC
In that scenario I’d almost rather them give UC the nod over us since they’re undefeated and we end up with Bama…Watching both games Saturday I think we could beat Bama easily
December 1st, 2021 at 1:37 AM ^
No.
If, and only if, we take care of business and beat Iowa*, and Alabama beats Georgia, then Alabama will jump us to #1 by virtue of what will be the best win of the year in college football.
* I hereby preface every CFP discussion with "If, and only if, we take care of business and beat Iowa,"
November 30th, 2021 at 7:40 PM ^
"The biggest joke...o$u somehow #7 after being bullied off the field."
Not defending osu, but I'm curious as to why you think a nd team that split games vs 2 ranked teams and why cinc, which played/beat 1 ranked team, should be ranked higher than a team that is 3-2 vs ranked teams.
I really would like to see cinc/nd/wannabes play 5-6 ranked teams every year, the same way the Big10/SEC does.
THE real OSU is ranked #5 in the CFB playoffs.
November 30th, 2021 at 7:57 PM ^
Recency bias, plain and simple.
But I also think cincy would give them a game in a winner-take-all scenario -- lots of chips on shoulders in that one. Oregon already manhandled them. As Brian will sometimes say, "the book is out on them" though I'm aware it would take some talent to execute that book.
November 30th, 2021 at 8:19 PM ^
So #2 losing to #5, which in this case, are 2 comparable teams, is worse than a #3 team beating a #89 ranked team?
The #2 v #5 is a coin toss as to who wins. The latter is a little more determined.
If it's just "recency bias", then teams like Michigan, osu, Texas, Tennessee, USC, Bama, Georgia, etc... should leave their respective conferences to join the MAC, Mountain Sky, AAC, etc conferences. That way, they will have a better chance of being undefeated based on the "recency" of who they beat. After all, why should they have to worry about the next opponent when they know it's an easy schedule?
November 30th, 2021 at 7:44 PM ^
Dear lord, OSU technically isn't out of it, although it is highly unlikely.
November 30th, 2021 at 7:55 PM ^
They are essentially…no way they jump Michigan. Furthermore Baylor would jump them if they won. ND isn’t playing this week and they only have 1 loss.
November 30th, 2021 at 8:04 PM ^
Not sure... If UM, Ok St., and Cinci all lose, UGA wins, that means UGA is in, and I would think 11-1 ND and 11-2 Baylor.
The last spot... Iowa as 11-2 Big Ten champ? But they are currently way down at #13. But I think they would have a better case than 10-2 OSU, 11-2 Bama, 10-2 Ole Miss.
Maybe it would go Oregon if they win the PAC and be 11-2, they are currently ranked above Iowa, but Iowa would be beating the #2 team...
December 1st, 2021 at 1:10 AM ^
That would be a crazy scenario. It would come down to Alabama and Iowa. The committee sticks pretty closely to ESPN's Strength of Record metric and Bama would still be third in that metric. Iowa would be around 5-7. It would be a matter of whether the committee gives Iowa enough credit for winning a conference title to overcome basically every other measure possible: resume ranks, eye test, SOS, etc.
Iowa has two losses by more than three scores each to unranked teams. They beat Northwestern by five points. Five! They are atrocious per the eye test and pretty much any predictive metric.
God, this game better not be close.
November 30th, 2021 at 7:46 PM ^
We desperately need to beat Iowa. Its a winnable game. Just win, baby.
And less desperately, but still severe, we need GA to beat Bama. Just win, bulldogs.
November 30th, 2021 at 7:49 PM ^
Not bad for a team that was unranked early in the season.
November 30th, 2021 at 7:53 PM ^
Expected OSU to fall to 7-9 range. They lost to the #2 & #10 teams in the country, knew they weren’t going to fall far since they were 2nd in last weeks ranking.
November 30th, 2021 at 8:02 PM ^
Excellent. It's all there for Michigan. Beat Iowa. Win the game.
November 30th, 2021 at 8:05 PM ^
Beat Iowa!
November 30th, 2021 at 8:05 PM ^
If you think about it....
Even though Georgia is likely better, UM has the easiest path of the top-6 teams to not only reach the semi-finals, but even reach the NC! If everything goes to chalk, UM must defeat Iowa, a wonderful matchup for UM, then defeat either Cincinnati or Ok.State to reach the NC. Georgia must defeat Alabama (despite Bama playing lousy this season, they are still basically a semi-pro team with their talent), then defeat the team UM doesnt play in the semis - Cinn or Ok.State.
So in my mind, UM has the best chance of making the NC, but not the best chance of winning the NC. If Georgia reaches the NC, they easily have the best chance of winning the NC.
#GoBlue
November 30th, 2021 at 8:08 PM ^
Beat Iowa - then speculate.
November 30th, 2021 at 8:09 PM ^
I dunno, OSU is a very good team. Our win means something.
November 30th, 2021 at 8:44 PM ^
That's a good point.
I believe playing at home matters and showing up matters -- you can't get blown out or lose at home and be a playoff team. As good as they are, both things happened to them. Having them at 7 to me means they could back in, and I don't think it's right.
We'll see. Beat Iowa.
December 1st, 2021 at 1:54 AM ^
I wouldn't say OSU got blown out. They were within a score until 2 min left. They had 23 first downs to M's 24. They were outgained 458-487. They were beaten convincingly (i.e. not a fluke) but that was not a blow out.
November 30th, 2021 at 8:25 PM ^
Just beat Iowa!!
November 30th, 2021 at 8:32 PM ^
Losing to Sparty always sucks, but it looks like that loss didn't hurt us at all. We would probably have the same ranking even if we were 12-0.
Hopefully we can avenge it next year.
November 30th, 2021 at 8:37 PM ^
But at 12-0 M could maybe survive a close loss to Iowa and still make the CFP. Tough to say. The committee has done it before...for a SEC team of course.
November 30th, 2021 at 8:38 PM ^
December 1st, 2021 at 1:58 AM ^
Exactly. The playoff ticket would likely be punched already if we were 12-0. Same as what the Iowa game meant in 2016.
November 30th, 2021 at 8:51 PM ^
It's time to start dreaming. A national title is right there to be had. Weirdly, I would care less about it than beating OSU.
November 30th, 2021 at 9:01 PM ^
OSU should be 7, and it helps us in being so. They crushed MSU like none other but you imply they should be below them ?
November 30th, 2021 at 9:11 PM ^
All I know is if Bama and Michigan both make the playoffs, we'll be playing Bama, because no earthly way they don't manipulate the seeding to avoid a rematch.
November 30th, 2021 at 10:05 PM ^
The Committee will make sure the Georgia/Bama winner gets Cincy.Michigan will get Ok.St. if Bama loses big.If Bama loses a close game they'll get in and Mich will draw Bama.If Bama wins Michigan gets Georgia.No way will Michigan will get Cincy..I know it's not fair but that's what will happen.
November 30th, 2021 at 10:06 PM ^
Beat Iowa, then if Alabama and OkSt win, it'll be
Alabama 1
M/Ga 2/3
OkSt 4
We'll have a month to prepare for Georgia, which is perfect. OkSt and the fighting Nick Sabans are much less of a challenge
December 1st, 2021 at 1:24 AM ^
If Bama wins Sat and rest is chalk, is it possible they rank Michigan No. 1, and have a Ga/Ala rematch in the semis? Mich vs. one of those teams would likely generate far better ratings than Ga-Ala in the NC, right?
November 30th, 2021 at 11:04 PM ^
This is how I expected it to look. Still, I can't stop reading it on the ESPN ticker every time they show it. Michigan at 2!
November 30th, 2021 at 11:56 PM ^
In the seven-year history of the CFP, teams have failed to hold onto their playoff position in the last game six times -- Georgia in 2019 and 2018, Auburn and Wisconsin in 2017, Iowa in 2015 and TCU in 2014.
2020
1 Alabama holds.
2 Notre Dame down to 4.
3 Clemson up to 2.
4 Ohio State up to 3.
5. Texas A&M holds.
2019
1 Ohio State down to 2.
2 LSU up to 1.
3 Clemson holds.
4 Georgia down to 5.
5 Utah down to 11.
6 Oklahoma up to 4.
2018
1 Alabama holds.
2 Clemson holds.
3 Notre Dame holds.
4 Georgia down to 5.
5 Oklahoma up to 4.
2017
1 Clemson holds.
2 Auburn down to 7.
3 Oklahoma up to 2.
4 Wisconsin down to 6.
5 Alabama up to 4.
6 Georgia up to 3.
7 Miami down to 10.
8 Ohio State up to 5.
2016
1 Alabama holds.
2 Ohio State down to 3.
3 Clemson up to 2.
4 Washington holds.
5 Michigan down to 6.
6 Wisconsin down to 8.
7 Penn State up to 5.
2015
1 Clemson holds.
2 Alabama holds.
3 Oklahoma down to 4.
4 Iowa down to 5.
5 Michigan State up to 3.
2014
1 Alabama holds.
2 Oregon holds.
3 TCU down to 6.
4 Florida State up to 3.
5 Ohio State up to 4.
6 Baylor up to 5.
December 1st, 2021 at 12:05 AM ^
Georgia may choke in the SEC championship game. They often do. You know who may be number 1 if they take care of Iowa, Michigan. May see 1. Michigan, 2. Alabama, 3. Georgia and 4. Cincy. If Georgia wins: 1. Georgia, 2. Michigan, 3. Cincy 4. OK St. So, there is a good chance that Michigan may be playing Cincy in the first round. I think if IA beats Michigan on a last second FG and Alabama loses big, and OK St goes down, Michigan could still go down!
December 1st, 2021 at 12:43 AM ^
Divisional games that matter. M 80%, Georgia 60%,, and OK St 50 % to win. I think Cincy is sitting pretty making the playoffs.
December 1st, 2021 at 1:02 AM ^
If, and only if, we take care of business and beat Iowa*, then it looks like we will stay at #2 in the CFP no matter what else happens.
If Georgia beats Alabama, then Georgia obviously stays at #1 and Alabama drops out. We stay at #2. There is nothing that Cincinnati, Ok State, et al can realistically do to jump us.
If Alabama beats Georgia then they will jump to #1 by virtue of what will be the best win of the year in college football. Georgia will stay in the CFP, but the committee will drop them below us because they will not have won a conference championship.
* I hereby preface every CFP discussion with "If, and only if, we take care of business and beat Iowa,"
December 1st, 2021 at 7:21 AM ^
Beat Iowa! I still can't believe that we are even in this position honestly but Go Blue!!