Lewan and Roh in CBS's Top 50 Draft Prospects for 2013
Just remember a debate going on a little while ago about whether UM has any guys who could go 1st round next year.
Taylor Lewan is #24 overall and 2nd rated OL.
Craig Roh #31 overall
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/blog/rob-rang/18908781/early-look-at-2013-top-50-prospects (Not much to read)
Edit: Bodogblog pointed out that Lewan is #31 in a different CBS writer's top 32
Death Roh makes the cut? Fantastic. If he has a big year, the sky's the limit. I suspect as one of the surest commodities on the line, Mattison will design things to make sure Roh gets a lot of good opportunities.
I'll say this though- any first round list without Dilithium is suspect.
At this point, I'd say Denard's status could literally be anywhere. I understand the excitement people got when Mel Kiper called him the #1 athlete, and NFL teams like that kind of explosiveness and playmaking ability, but we're not going to have any idea of where Denard's going to land until he goes through offseason workouts and attempts to prove to NFL teams that he can play WR/RB.
He's got a season yet to prove to them that he can play QB. It only took Robert Griffin one season.
You don't know much about football.
Lets see:
Arm strength? Check
Athleticism? Check double super plus
College pedigree? Check plus
Successful record? Check
Experience in a semi-pro set? He'll have a year plus of that.
Things he's currently missing? Ideal size and a high completion percentage. Obviously, one of those is what it is. You're suggesting that if Denard Robinson has a year in which he shows marked improvement in making all the throws and ratchets his completion percentage about 65%, there is no way he gets drafted at QB?
I wish I knew as much about football as you.
In his defense, the completion percentage issue speaks to Denard's accuracy issues, touch issues, and decision-making. I can see decision-making improving much and even his accuracy and touch improving a bit, but he has a lot of flaws. Griffin was a pretty elite passer and I don't know how good of a passer he was before his senior year, but that is a substantial leap for Denard. More likely he will be drafted as an athlete that they can use in wildcat formations with the ability to pass (although ironically his passing on the move tends to be his worst). Could return kicks, play in the slot, and play in the backfield as RB or trick play. If he does well in prep for the draft, I find it tough to believe some team without a player available at a position of need would not take his interesting skill set in the 2nd maybe even the late 1st round.
To be fair, RG3 had 72.4% completion rate with 37 TD and 6 INT. If Denard can put up a stat like that, he will be drafted in the 1st round.
If he can complete 65% next year, he has a chance to get drafted as a QB. But RG3 completed for 65% and 67% in his soph and junior year. The chances of Denard getting to 65% completion rate is going to be pretty damn tough. He be doing fine just going over 60%.
Denard completed 62% of his passes as a true sophomore and threw picks at a much lower clip than he did this past season. The idea that he isn't that accurate is completely based on the fact that he had to learn a completely different passing offense (as did everyone around him) in the middle of his college career.
His accuracy numbers are going to be drastically improved next year when he has a much firmer grasp of the offense. And he's going to run for 1,000+ yards as easy as falling off a log.
The major knocks on Denard as a QB are accuracy, throwing mechanics, decision making and height. If Denard wants to play QB in the NFL I hope he does but, to be 100% honest it's an uphill battle. Even if he improved all the things he is able to improve on ( accuracy , mechanics and so on) The chances of him growing 3 to 4 inches this season are slim to none.
I hope he just has a great, injury free career and is part of atleast one super bowl team.
First of all, 62% is a good but not great percentage. Secondly, many of his completions (and I've said this before) were inaccurate completions. He had guys leaping and diving and catching the ball off their shoestrings...and that was just on bubble screens, which is a pretty damn easy throw.
Denard Robinson is inaccurate. It's been a problem for his entire football career, from high school to college and all the way throughout college so far. If he becomes accurate in the next year, great. But there are a lot of people out there who think guys are either accurate or they're not. You can't take an inaccurate quarterback and turn him into Kellen Moore, and you can't take Kellen Moore and turn him into Denard Robinson. There are so many things that go into accuracy (arm strength, anticipation, mechanics, etc.) that it's virtually impossible to fix all of those things and get them all on the same wavelength.
Denard can play quarterback in the NFL, but that's only if a team's looking for a guy who can throw the ball into the dirt and/or to the guys in different colored jerseys.
Vince Young had completed less than 60% of his passes and had thrown as many picks as TDs going into his final year at Texas. His mechanics and natural accuracy are a lot worse than Denard's, yet he upped his completion percentage to 65% in his fourth year on campus, had a great season and was the #3 pick in the draft. Kellen Moore, for all his perceived accuracy, didn't get drafted at all.
Granted, Denard doesn't have Young's height, but he is almost certainly going to have the same kind of season next year now that he knows the offense (Young didn't have to go through a transition of this kind). If Denard completes 65% of his passes (a slight improvement from his true sophomore season) throws 5 more TDs and 5 fewer picks, he's going to get drafted as a QB and get a shot. He's also going to graduate as far and away the most productive offensive player in the history of Michigan football. Which is nice.
...and Vince Young has 46 career touchdowns, 51 career picks, and a 57.9% career completion percentage. Plus he's about five inches taller, as you mentioned.
There are significant differences, especially when it comes to size. And if the comparison is to Vince Young, then that's not very convincing that Robinson can make it in the NFL as a quarterback.
Predicting any college QB will be successful in the NFL is a crapshoot. And Denard isn't a can't miss prospect. Just pointing out that the prevailing sentiment that he will only be drafted as a WR/RB, despite never playing at either of those positions, is not consistent with the draft's history or Denard's statistical ceiling (which I think is closer to 2010 than 2011 due to familiarity with the offense).
Denard almost certainly won't have as good of a pro career at the position, but I'd wager a fair amount that he gets drafted higher than Tom Brady did, and by a team that will let him play/compete at QB.
I'm sure he'll get picked higher, but Brady and Robinson are irrelevant to each other. Some team might give him a fleeting chance to play quarterback, but we all know that a team who picks him is also going to have designs on using him as a slot receiver, kick returner, etc. He's more likely to be a Josh Cribbs/Woody Dantzler type than Michael Vick.
One of these College QBs went #1 overall and is the only NFL player to sign 2 separate $100M contracts. The one with better stats is Denard Robinson:
| Passing | Rushing | ||||||||||||
| Season | Team | GP | Att | Comp | Comp % | Yards | Yards/Att | TD | INT | Att | Yards | Ave | TD |
| 2009 | Michigan | 10 | 31 | 14 | 45.2 | 188 | 6.1 | 2 | 4 | 69 | 409 | 5.1 | 5 |
| 2010 | Michigan | 13 | 291 | 182 | 62.5 | 2570 | 8.8 | 18 | 11 | 256 | 1702 | 6.6 | 14 |
| 2011 | Michigan | 13 | 258 | 142 | 55.0 | 2173 | 8.4 | 20 | 15 | 221 | 1176 | 5.3 | 16 |
| Passing | Rushing | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| YEAR | CMP | ATT | CMP% | YDS | TD | INT | ATT | YDS | TD |
| 1998 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1999 | 90 | 153 | 58.8 | 1840 | 12 | 5 | 110 | 580 | 8 |
| 2000 | 97 | 179 | 54.2 | 1439 | 9 | 7 | 113 | 636 | 9 |
"Denard can play quarterback in the NFL, but that's only if a team's looking for a guy who can throw the ball into the dirt and/or to the guys in different colored jerseys."
It's not just completion percentage. Denard just doesn't have the arm and down field accuracy. Even if his completion percentage goes up, it's not going to be because he is completing a lot of deep outs to the opposite hash mark. He doesn't have an NFL arm -
And as far as comparing Denard to RGIII, there is no point. RGIII always had prototypical size/arm strength. Denard doesn't. Let's be realistic.
RG3 had more than just 1 good year as a QB.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/stats/_/id/14875/type/college/robert-griffin-iii
RG III had two solid years at QB, and this was after tearing his ACL early in his sophmore year (which looked promising as well). No one paying attention to him around here =/= him not being productive.
Denard Robinson, junior year: 142 completions, 55% completion percentage, and 15 picks.
Robert Griffin III, junior year: 304 completions, 67% completion percentage, and 8 picks.
Denard is not on the same level as RG III as a passer, and won't be by the time he graduates. He's destined for RB/WR in the NFL.
Griffin was a good quarterback pretty much every year. In his freshman season, his completion percentage was fairly low, but he threw 15 touchdowns and only 3 picks. I think he's a superior quarterback in many ways, although maybe not as dynamic a runner.
Mel Kiper has Lewan going 8th to St Louis
kiper is already predicting which team will have the 8th pick? Can this new Oracle of Delphi tell me what shoes to wear four months from now?
This Oracle is known for his ambiguous puzzles and riddles. In 1998 he predicted there would be a great QB in the draft and the other would fall. Shortsightedly, the kingdom asking failed to intrepret correctly; it was their choice who would fall.
quick shout out to someone else who knows about the tale of Croesus of Lydia. Whoever you are, in some ways, we are brothers.
As the Oracle said, Know Thyself. Knowing thyself means I also know my brother. It is the common bond we share for appreciation of lessons past. I appreciate the shout-out from a fellow classics enthusiast. We are brothers in that, our appreciation for Michigan football, and I am sure much else.
Four months from today is September 1st.
Wear your Kicking Bama Ass boots...duh
These are not the linemen you are looking for.
Am I missing something? Roh has better pro potential than Martin?
This is just a shot in the dark with no facts whatsoever, but it may have to do with their rank relative to others at the position, or a particular need for DE’s. It is perfectly consistent to say that Martin is the better player, but that Roh may go earlier in the draft.
frame compared to Martin's. It seems scouts thought a 6'1" DT has limited potential as a pro, whereas someone with Roh's size (and versatility) could be an asset.
If Roh has a RVB type year I will be very pleased. Where did RVB go in the draft? Even if you didn't account for the injury he was not in the top 150. I will be all too happy to be wront though.
The think about Roh is that he has RVB-size, but with more athleticism. He will have been a four year starter. I'm not that surprised.
Going off what the above poster said, Roh is a much better pass rusher than RVB ever was/is.
Their numbers don't really indicate that to be true.
I should say he has the potential to be..at the very least, he's more athletic.
True.
I'm not surprised at all by Lewan's inclusion. He will need some polish but has the physical tools NFL scouts salivate over.
Roh is more surprising to me, but he has progressed every year and could be poised for a big statistical season this year... can't wait to see him do it.
He'd have to have a monster year or a monster combine to fly all the way up there
I doubt Kiper has even seen Roh play. This reminds me when Donovan Warren was projected to go in the first round in one these early ESPN mock drafts.
Not sure if serious...
If I remember correctly, RR wouldn't offer Hankins because he was not in shape enough for his liking? Man...Another blunder, goes to osu & starts as a true frosh...Can't let kids leave Detroit, especially when they're good (also see tom gholston - who might be a prick, but I would take him on UM in a heartbeat).
He just didn't offer him early (though the staff did actively recruit him and remain in fairly constant contact with him). Neither did OSU. The kid came here on an official visit, went to OSU a week later, then chose OSU. We just scored 40 on that defense Hankins anchors and beat OSU for the first time in nearly a decade. It isn't because they were kicking our ass on the recruiting trail, but because we got guys like Ryan, Fitz, and Omameh who they actually overlooked/ignored. Hankins is a guy who chose a school that he appears to be comfortable at and that had dominated us and the rest of the Big Ten for the better part of a decade. That is the reality of recruiting, not some terrible blunder.
He also probably would not have started here ahead of Martin and/or RVB.
I do not want Gholston.
And he was destined for MSU. I don't really care that that one got away. He would have sucked under Rodriguez's tutelage, and now he would be good under Hoke...but so are our other guys.
I like his draft prospects, i just worry that he likes them too....
Lewan should be higher
Roh should be lower