Let’s talk about the Spartans
Put me in that category of fans who never takes this game for granted. Since we have a bye, I will be checking out their game vs Illinois pretty closely. The line right now is very surprising in my opinion. Currently MSU -16. That seems really high but it’s tough to know for sure how they will respond to adversity. Their offense is currently putrid, but they have also played 3 consecutive games vs top defenses. Looks like they are missing their center Matt Allen and their top WR Stewart for the Illinioos game, and who knows how long after that. Their top OL is Jarvis and he might be back vs us but was not listed on the Illinois depth chart.
Overall, I feel like they are a similar team to what they were last year. A below average OL, a QB that can make plays if given the chance, and a set of mediocre play makers. On defense they are good at stopping the run but have been suspect in the secondary. With the loss of Bachie, it will be interesting to see if their run stopping will take a big hit. If they blow out Illinois, they probably come into AA with confidence that they have weathered the storm and can salvage the season. If they lose, or win a close one, it might be an indicator they have rolled over and quit on the season.
We should be very solid favorites in this game. If I had a concern it would be that they manage to score some on some scripted stuff, we struggle to run the ball and Shea makes enough mistakes to keep them in the game. Feels like we are due for a blowout though and I’m hoping this is the year where it all comes together vs them.
November 5th, 2019 at 1:19 PM ^
I could see Lewerke feeding it to Cody White 15 times against us, much like the Burbridge v. Jourdan Lewis game in 2015.
November 5th, 2019 at 3:50 PM ^
That won't help, white drops it constantly
November 5th, 2019 at 1:23 PM ^
If JH loses to this Sparty squad it may be his biggest failure as a head coach.
It's time for this team to finish strongly the last part of a season. So far in Harbaugh's tenure, Michigan has been known for going out with a whimper.
It's the 4th quarter and these next 3 games will determine the season. Bury those motherfuckers.
November 5th, 2019 at 1:29 PM ^
I live in Lansing. The locals have basically thrown in the towel and are waiting for the basketball season.
With that being said, I want to hang 100 on these fuckheads. . .
November 5th, 2019 at 1:31 PM ^
The annoying truth with respect to our Big Ten rivals:
> Michigan State - We should beat them just about every year, but they always play us tough because its a rivalry game and have been winning just about half the matchups over the recent past.
> Ohio State - They should beat us... and always do. *sigh*
November 5th, 2019 at 3:16 PM ^
> Rutger - They show up.
November 5th, 2019 at 1:32 PM ^
Barring them scoring on defense or a rash of turnovers in their favor, I have a hard time seeing Sparty cover against Illinois. Go Illini!
Against us its entirely dependent on what we do. If we try to score, we smoke them. If we try to control the clock, it could be a coin flip.
November 5th, 2019 at 1:45 PM ^
go cut your switch 'lil bro..... a whippin' cometh.....
November 5th, 2019 at 1:45 PM ^
Pro tip: take Illinois and the points.
November 5th, 2019 at 1:55 PM ^
Last year we had to fumble the ball in the shadow of our own end zone to give them field position to score some points. I don't see their offense functioning any better this year. So....don't turn the ball over and play well on special teams and we ought to be just fine.
They'll pull some new plays out that will give Don Brown and the defense fits for about a quarter and then that's about it for their offense. Survive the onslaught and take care of the ball.
November 5th, 2019 at 2:04 PM ^
We win this game as a result of our defense being very good and the MSU offense being so fucked up. We will cover any line as we will not make any turnovers or mistakes in D. This is our GAME. ????GO BLUE
November 5th, 2019 at 2:02 PM ^
I am more worried about this game than ever tbh. Anyone who thinks Dantonio hasn't been spending every practice since they lost to ASU focused on prepping for the Michigan game, they're kidding themselves.
Dantonio knows that there is one way to salvage this season: beat Michigan. He is spending 90% of every waking hour of every day preparing for that. He could literally lose every game on the remainder of his schedule except for the Michigan game and still be declared a hero and guarantee his job.
Sure, the talent he's working with is not really close to the caliber that Michigan has, but that is always the case. MSU probably already has 3-4 scripted drives that are built to attack Michigan's vulnerabilities. Their defense is probably going to sell out against the run and try to force Shea to make mistakes. And with a bit of luck it just might work!
Especially considering the following: Michigan isn't great coming out of bye weeks - we often see a regression, we haven't beaten MSU at home in forever, Michigan has a history of getting a bit too cocky right after winning big and then going into a perceived lesser foe.
My guess is Dantonio's game plan is something like this:
On offense, bleed the clock and be efficient. Michigan is prone to tanking their own offensive drives, so if you limit the number of chances Michigan has on offense, you can severely restrict their scoring ability. Dantonio will try to slow his offense to a crawl and eat up clock. Go for it on 4th down early and often, pin your punts deep, run the QB a lot. That's what allowed other over-matched teams like Army and Iowa to stay close.
On defense, sell out entirely against the run and blitz like there's no tomorrow on passing downs. Stack the box with 8 men every down. Force Shea to get the ball out quickly, which he's bad at, or get him on the run behind the line of scrimmage where he is prone to bonehead ball security issues. This could mean they let our receivers get some big play opportunities, but Dantonio will be willing to roll the dice on that.
Last tactic: ALL the unsportsmanlike behaviors. Dantonio will give his team free reign to gouge, grab, poke, punch, twist and kick our players at will. His best bet is to injure our players to even the talent gap. He knows they won't all get called. And even if they do call most of them, Dantonio will gladly take a few 15 yard penalties in exchange for getting a few of our best players off the field. They will especially go after Shea - they'll hit him late, hit him out of bounds, target him, anything to get him off the field. And for good measure they will taunt our players and try to goad them into getting flags too. It's going to get very ugly, even by Michigan-MSU standards.
This is all to say, anyone looking forward to a blowout in this one is going to be very disappointed. We could easily lose this game if we don't play flawlessly and fight back against all the inevitable MSU frippery. I'd be happy with any win against a Mark Dantonio squad with nothing to lose.
November 5th, 2019 at 3:38 PM ^
1) He doesn't have a clock-bleeding offense. Hasn't had one in about 4 years. They have 1 RB at the moment, and a terrible OL. They could run Lewerke, but on the runs I've seen him make he's been sliding early. It would get them some first downs, but also expose the QB to hits the guy doesn't want to take. MSU's decline began with a bad OL that hasn't allowed them to run the ball for years. That's not getting fixed in Ann Arbor. If they run and try to bleed the clock, they'll be punting on 4th and 7 or more most of the day. They have to try and pass the ball, and if Stewart is out forget it.
2) The corners are just not there to load the box. Michigan will gladly take 1-on-1 match ups on the outside all day (well... not all day, but they will take their shots). Their corners have been playing off and still losing a good bit of their match-ups.
3) I do agree that something like that could be in the cards, the dirty play. I still remember the cut blocks against Mike Martin and Co.
I think the Michigan OL and running backs take advantage of a missing Bachie and have a day. DPJ and Collins serve up the finishing blows. Michigan wins by the 21+ points they should have last year.
November 5th, 2019 at 4:09 PM ^
Ah! Stop using FACTS against my emotion of existential dread that I have as a result of the 2015 and 2017 MSU games.
Jokes aside, I hope you're right!
November 5th, 2019 at 5:02 PM ^
Keep some things in mind here:
1.) Dantonio's two wins against Harbaugh teams have both been less than one score.
2.) Dantonio's 2015 win was only due to a fluke play, and that was with a MUCH better MSU offense than what he has now.
3.) Even with our poor offense in 2017, we were still in position to win that game. O'Korn threw a ball up with less than a minute in the game, and it landed in the hands of a WR who dropped it.
4.) While our 2019 team offense isn't great, it is still better than the 2017 offense.
5.) MSU is flat out horrible on offense this year, period. Lewerke is at a 50% completion rate. He doesn't know what to do against strong defenses, and we're as tough a defense as anything else he'll run into.
6.) Don't underestimate Joe Bachie's absence. That's a significant blow to the MSU defense at a key position.
7.) Stewart and Allen, two offensive players which are significant playmakers, are also out.
Do I think this game will be a cakewalk? Not necessarily. But I also think that Dantonio is not coming in with the same firepower that he's had in the past. And our offense appears to be finding its feet more consistently, while the D is getting stronger each game.
The game isn't a gimme, but it's also far from being a daunting task.
November 6th, 2019 at 12:09 PM ^
Good points. I am just too scarred from reading about the things that should happen in a Michigan rivalry game and then have the exact opposite happen. This applies to both wins and losses.
- Notre Dame this year: narrative before the game is that Notre Dame is the favorite, despite what Vegas says, but if Michigan pulls it off it'll be a close, low scoring win in the rain. Result: 45-14 blowout.
- Ohio State last year: the narrative before the game was Don Brown's defense was looking good enough that all Michigan needed to do was put up 4 or 5 touchdowns and the game would be in the bag. Plus, the revenge tour just needed one more win and Michigan would be playing out of their minds to make it happen. We know what happened.
- Michigan State last year: narrative before the game is the Michigan is clearly superior and they are on the revenge tour roll. They should win this game easily, and may even run up the score. Result: we won, but man it was way closer than what you would expect given the way the teams played.
- Notre Dame last year: narrative going into the game was that the teams were pretty evenly matched and it should be an exciting rivalry matchup. Result: Notre Dame pretty much had it in the bag from the first quarter. It was kind of boring.
- Ohio State 2017: Narrative going into the game was the Michigan would likely get blown out at home and would be lucky to score at all. Result: Michigan was actually winning at halftime and had a good shot at winning outright until late into the 4th quarter.
I could go on but I won't. The point is that there is a pattern of Michigan rivalry games going completely off-script from what the conventional wisdom would say.
In this case, the conventional wisdom is that MSU has a putrid offense and a good defense with some glaring holes. Most people seem to expect something like last year, with maybe a slightly larger margin of victory for Michigan. But since things tend to go opposite of whatever rationality would predict, I'm predicting a Big 12 style shootout with 2OT, ending 49-45. MSU will have over 300 yards of offense and give up less than 100 rush yards on defense. Michigan's secondary will get gashed, and Nico Collins will also get 10 targets. No idea who wins.
November 5th, 2019 at 2:03 PM ^
We're going to ass blast them
November 5th, 2019 at 2:29 PM ^
The contrast between this post and the one directly above it is quite comical.
November 5th, 2019 at 2:36 PM ^
LOL didn't even see that. Michigan fans never disappoint.
November 5th, 2019 at 3:34 PM ^
Nevermind.
November 5th, 2019 at 2:10 PM ^
Bet the farm on Illinois. Not only are they down and scrambling, but they're preparing for the only game that matters to them, and it isn't being played this Saturday.
November 5th, 2019 at 2:25 PM ^
I've watched enough Dantonio MSU to know they're not just going to roll over and die. This is the only game that matters for them the rest of the season and they know it. This won't be a defining win for Harbaugh, but it sure as hell will be a defining loss for him if we lose. We've gotta come out and know MSU is going to try everything to win this game
Michigan 30-19
November 6th, 2019 at 12:18 PM ^
Agreed. It is impossible to underestimate what Dantonio will do to win this game. He has probably been juicing all of his players and Bachie is just the one that got caught. I bet Dantonio is telling his players now that he will give them a golden needle for every targeting foul and late hit they get on Michigan's QBs. I wouldn't put it past him to tell his offensive linemen to gouge out the eyes of all of our defensive linemen every time there is a pile. He'll play as dirty as he can as long as the end result is a W.
November 5th, 2019 at 2:40 PM ^
If Michigan comes with a "grip it and rip it" mentality they will win a 28-10 game. If they come in and play turtle ball they will keep MSU in game and their confidence will grow as game goes on. There is no way that MSU should be within 17 points if Michigan plays to win and not to lose. But I understand the OP concerns. Harbaugh has a tendency to turtle the O in big games. The saving grace is I think MSU will really struggle with the Michigan D. I think Brown is kind of on a mission to turn the dogs loose. It hasn't gone unnoticed that the crossing route has not been a problem the last couple games. MSU likes those crossing routes. I think Don Brown has heard the JUSTIFIED criticism and he wants nothing more than to shut us up. Again, if Michigan plays "their" game, this game could get ugly for MSU. Maybe a pick 6 for good guys, 1/2 dozen sacks and hold MSU to under 150 yds total offense.
November 5th, 2019 at 3:14 PM ^
That seems really high but it’s tough to know for sure how they will respond to adversity.
I think we have an idea.
MSU got blown out by OSU and responded ... by getting blown out by Wisconsin.
MSU then responded to the UW blowout . . . by getting blown out by PSU.
November 5th, 2019 at 3:18 PM ^
I thought Lewerke played one of his best games in the OSU game earlier this year. He hit at least 2 downfield passes that were absolute precision and played relatively well overall. Yet, Sparty still only scored10 points.
There are occasional outliers in a rivalry series and this year will be one of them. Game should be similar to the UM-Maryland game last week. Indiana on the road and OSU will far more competitive than this one.
November 5th, 2019 at 3:20 PM ^
If I had a concern about the UM - MSU game it is if they bring their inclement weather machine to AA. That usually works in their favor.
November 5th, 2019 at 3:40 PM ^
That seemed to work pretty well for us against ND.
There are no more ghosts. Michigan is a better team and will win.
November 5th, 2019 at 3:22 PM ^
Sparty is a disgrace. Anything else to discuss?
November 5th, 2019 at 3:36 PM ^
Wait, so Sparty scored 17 points in October and they're -16 vs. Illinois? Woohoo, that's a good one.
November 5th, 2019 at 3:53 PM ^
I think the idea of "Lewerke makes plays" has been refuted this year. They have some playmakers and the offense has been gawdawful.
November 5th, 2019 at 4:00 PM ^
Sparty can give their best shot and be all fired up on roids and such and it's not going to be enough. They're not a good football team.
November 5th, 2019 at 4:16 PM ^
Lets not, talk about Sparty that is
November 5th, 2019 at 4:16 PM ^
Unless we're talking about a Sparty loss
November 5th, 2019 at 4:52 PM ^
I'm not so certain that they'll beat Illinois. At the very least, it's not a given win. Lovie has the Illini playing much better. Sparty might win, but I believe it may be closer than people may think.
November 5th, 2019 at 4:54 PM ^
I'll take 16 points and Illinois. I figured it be a pickem game.
November 5th, 2019 at 9:44 PM ^
Mork got a tattoo on his lower back for this game in anticipation of Harbaughs love
November 6th, 2019 at 7:07 AM ^
Michigan must get something from its QB to win. It can’t be another ~150 yards passing and no good run reads kind of game.
U-M dominated last year in large part because of Lewerke's injury limitations. This year, his ability to both improvise on the ground and hit short passes will make the game a nightmare if Patterson is having a Maryland/Iowa kind of day.
November 6th, 2019 at 7:43 AM ^
Sparty's excuse train will be rolling.
November 6th, 2019 at 11:39 AM ^
I'd be much more worried about Sparty if this game was played in October. Their 2016 team was already showing signs of decomposition when Michigan came to town, but they were still able to muster some resistance in the second half. Granted, it was largely based on playing at the envelope of what the refs were allowing, but they did make it interesting.
The wheels pretty much fell off in the last month and they look like they can't wait for this season to be over. Dantonio's retirement announcement would only serve as motivation for Michigan, and Harbaugh should use this package up a nice little beatdown like the kind that they put together for Notre Dame. Only this would be more brutal, since the Irish actually had something to play for.
And who replaces Dantonio? Here's a potentially batshit crazy idea: former Spartan captain leaves the NFL to come home to be save his school's program Pat Shurmur..
November 6th, 2019 at 6:15 PM ^
Protect the ball like they have been, M runs away with the game.
Sparty will only be in this game off TOs ..period..end of sentence..exclamation