Kind of OT: Let's Play "Who's In?"

Submitted by Mr. Yost on

EDIT:

1. I spelled proponent wrong.

2. Baylor doesn't have a conference championship game this year (it starts next year).

3. Got off track with the number of teams in a playoff.

So the point of this is/was really to figure out how much a championship means in a weaker conference. Also, can a 1 or 2 loss team jump an undefeated Houston team with 1 solid win, another GREAT win, and a bunch of "meh."

At no point was it a prediction of the final teams. Teams are really just added because saying TEAM A and TEAM B is silly because conferences are perceived differently...and you'd need to know the entire schedule for each team.

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Scenario #1
Michigan and Louisville both go undefeated beating OSU and Clemson by 3 on the road.

OSU and Clemson are 11-1 with losses to the two undefeated teams.

Bama is a conference champ at 12-1 and a loss @Tennessee.

Baylor goes 11-1, losing @ Oklahoma, but winning the Big XII championship.

Washington runs the table, but loses to a 3-loss UCLA team in the Pac-12 championship to go 12-1.

...who are your 4?

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Scenario #2
Michigan and Houston go undefeated.

Louisville beats Clemson and runs the table in the ACC going 12-1 and ACC champs.

OSU and Clemson are 11-1.

Alabama is 10-2, losses vs. TAMU and @Tennessee, but wins the SEC Championship.

Baylor goes 11-1, losing @ Oklahoma, but winning the Big XII championship.

Stanford runs the table, but loses to a 3-loss UCLA team in the Pac-12 championship to go 12-1.

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Scenario #3
Michigan, Houston, and Clemson go undefeated.

OSU goes 11-1 losing at home to Michigan on a missed XP.

Alabama is 10-2, losses vs. TAMU and @Tennessee, but wins the SEC Championship.

Baylor goes 11-1, losing @ Oklahoma, but winning the Big XII championship.

Washington runs the table, but loses to a 3-loss UCLA team in the Pac-12 championship to go 12-1.

 

 

Feel free to add your own...

 

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BlowGoo

September 29th, 2016 at 11:45 PM ^

I used to be pro eight team playoff.

But lately I am more four team playoff supportive.

Maybe because we're getting pretty damned good....

 

Of those offered, I think scenario 2 most likely.

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bluebyyou

September 30th, 2016 at 6:53 AM ^

In a sense, you already have something akin to an eight team playoff when you have a conference championship game.  They may not be the best teams in the playoff in a particular conference, the B1G EAst this year comes to mind, but often it is pretty close.

Just my .02 but I'd like to see four superconferences with 10 teams in each division.  In the B1G, one of the divisions could be the old Big Ten as it was before expansion.

If anyone remains an independent, they would not be considered in the NC picture.  It is simply not fair to play one fewer game.

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Red is Blue

September 30th, 2016 at 11:21 AM ^

Love the concept, but don't know how it happens.

Instead of forcing conference realignment, why not have the conferences determine their champions in 12 games. The previous 13th game (conference championship) then becomes the first round of an 8 team playoff. The 8 playoff teams are each of the power 5 Champs, the best non p5 team and at two at-large.

How to get conference Champs in 12 games? Start by making the last week games cross-division rivalry games (a by-product is you don't have to have rivals in the same division to ensure they play alot, in fact it might be better to have them in opposite divisions).  One division hosts all games in given year (alternates between divisions).  Except, if necessary opponents are flopped so the 1 seeds in each division play each other.  Using the B1G as an example, if Michigan and OSU were in different divisions, they would play each other every year except if one and only one of them was tops in their division.  If Michigan were tops in its division and OSU was not, Michigan would play the top team in the other division.  Lets suppose Neb-Iowa is another week 12 cross division rivalry matchup and Iowa was 1 in their division.  They games would flop so that Michigan plays Iowa (for the championship) and OSU plays Neb.  Obviously Michigan and Neb would, in this scenario, be in the same division.  If their division is hosting this year, Michigan would host Iowa and Neb would host OSU in week 12 instead of Michigan hosting OSU and Nebraska hosting Iowa.  All other B1G week 12 games proceed as previously scheduled. 

 

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DrMantisToboggan

September 29th, 2016 at 11:48 PM ^

As happy as it would make me for Tennessee to beat Bama...

Bama, Michigan, Louisville, and Stanford all go undefeated making the selection easy (SDSU also undefeated but lol).

We avenge the 2013 NCAAM finals game and become the first team to contain Lamar Jackson.

McCaffrey says fuck yall who don't think I deserve the Heisman, I'll just upset the number one team with my best game yet.

Michigan v. Stanford in a dream matchup for the media, Michigan wins a slugfest by 9.

Now you don't even have to watch for the rest of the year, thank me later.



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y2mh

September 30th, 2016 at 10:06 AM ^

 Personally, I don't see a Big12 team making it unless they have a significantly better record than any of the other Power5 conferences. Baylor only makes it if they are one of 4 undefeateds, or one of 4 only one loss. Any other team in Power5 with one loss, jumps them for a spot. 

Unless they totally decimate Okla more than OSU did, I still don't see them getting in over a 1 Loss; OSU, Clemson, Alabama, Stanford, Washington, Louisville, ASU, Utah, Tenn, TAMU and even Wisconsin.

That conference has shown too much weakness top to bottom.

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Pit2047

September 29th, 2016 at 11:51 PM ^

I'd much rather a 6 team playoff. That would be de facto the 5 conference champs and an at-large, though you could have more at-large bids if a conference champ has 2+ losses. IMO a two loss team has no business ending the season with a national title. There are some years you can argue at the end of the season that 3-5 teams should have a shot at the title and VERY rarely you get to 6 (2014) but the 7th and 8th best teams in the country have no business being in a playoff.

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corundum

September 30th, 2016 at 12:00 AM ^

You are severely underestimating just how crazy CFB seasons can be. A two loss team won a BCS title in 2007, so there will certainly be years when a two loss team gets into the playoffs. 2007 finished the regular season with a top four of #1 OSU (11-1), #2 LSU (11-2), #3 VT (11-2), and #4 OU (11-2). LSU won the MNC and OU and VT both lost their bowl games.

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Red is Blue

September 30th, 2016 at 8:39 AM ^

I hate the reliance on the number of losses to determine who should be eligible. It is a defacto argument for soft schedules. Suppose a team this year played Alabama, OSU, Louisville, Michigan, Stanford, Clemson, ... and went 10-2. Are you saying they shouldn't be considered? Obviously an extreme example, but SoS should matter.

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APGOBLUE

September 29th, 2016 at 11:54 PM ^

Houston should be in regardless...only 2 tough games all year and who knows if Louisville is tough yet...find out saturday, right now I'd say no way there are two power 5s left out in order for Houston and Louisville...

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Formerly Yoda

September 30th, 2016 at 8:55 AM ^

there are polls. beautiful polls. in fact, a poll came out just last week. we're winning the polls, believe me. except for that low ratings coaches poll, which i don't watch.

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San Diego Mick

September 30th, 2016 at 12:03 AM ^

 

1st off, I agree about the 8 team playoff and top seeds getting 1st game at home but not before bowl games are selected but sometime in mid December, Semi's on New Year's Day or there about, Final about 10-12 days after that.

 

Scenario 1) Mich, Louisville, Bama and Baylor

Scenario 2) Mich, Houston, Louisville and Bama because they won't keep an SEC team out but I would go with Baylor ordinarily.

Scenario 3) Mich, Houston, Clemson and Baylor unless they just gotta have an SEC team and Bama would replace Baylor.

 

The reason I picked Baylor in every scenario is because they won their CCG, if Stan/Wash win their CCG then they would overtake Bama and Baylor in scenarios 2 and 3 IMO. In scenario 1 if Stan/Wash go 12-1 and win their CCG, it would be one of them, Mich, Louis and Bama, that would be a great playoff right there and the most interesting I think.

All of that being said, I really like our chances this year and every year going forward with what Harbaugh is building, so nice to be able to say that.

 

 

 

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MGB

September 30th, 2016 at 12:19 AM ^

Let's play who's in the Tom Herman sweepstakes? LSU seems the front runner, but what if Texas comes open? Herman has Big12 ties and already is coaching in the state of Texas. What if USC comes open? Of the three which is the best job and why?

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