Kind of OT: Let's Play "Who's In?"

Submitted by Mr. Yost on

EDIT:

1. I spelled proponent wrong.

2. Baylor doesn't have a conference championship game this year (it starts next year).

3. Got off track with the number of teams in a playoff.

So the point of this is/was really to figure out how much a championship means in a weaker conference. Also, can a 1 or 2 loss team jump an undefeated Houston team with 1 solid win, another GREAT win, and a bunch of "meh."

At no point was it a prediction of the final teams. Teams are really just added because saying TEAM A and TEAM B is silly because conferences are perceived differently...and you'd need to know the entire schedule for each team.

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Scenario #1
Michigan and Louisville both go undefeated beating OSU and Clemson by 3 on the road.

OSU and Clemson are 11-1 with losses to the two undefeated teams.

Bama is a conference champ at 12-1 and a loss @Tennessee.

Baylor goes 11-1, losing @ Oklahoma, but winning the Big XII championship.

Washington runs the table, but loses to a 3-loss UCLA team in the Pac-12 championship to go 12-1.

...who are your 4?

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Scenario #2
Michigan and Houston go undefeated.

Louisville beats Clemson and runs the table in the ACC going 12-1 and ACC champs.

OSU and Clemson are 11-1.

Alabama is 10-2, losses vs. TAMU and @Tennessee, but wins the SEC Championship.

Baylor goes 11-1, losing @ Oklahoma, but winning the Big XII championship.

Stanford runs the table, but loses to a 3-loss UCLA team in the Pac-12 championship to go 12-1.

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Scenario #3
Michigan, Houston, and Clemson go undefeated.

OSU goes 11-1 losing at home to Michigan on a missed XP.

Alabama is 10-2, losses vs. TAMU and @Tennessee, but wins the SEC Championship.

Baylor goes 11-1, losing @ Oklahoma, but winning the Big XII championship.

Washington runs the table, but loses to a 3-loss UCLA team in the Pac-12 championship to go 12-1.

 

 

Feel free to add your own...

 

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ESC25419

September 30th, 2016 at 12:28 AM ^

1 Michigan Louisville Alabama Washington (Big 12 doesn't have a title game so they'd be 11-1 Baylor and not make it)

2 Michigan Houston Louisville Stanford 

3 Michigan Houston Clemson Ohio State

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Michwolverinefreak

September 30th, 2016 at 1:05 AM ^

I'd prefer a 6 team playoff. 1 and 2 get a bye before playing 3/6 and 4/5. It almost ensures a "wildcard team", so to speak.

Plus, more Foobawl. And if you were undefeated at number 3-6, you could go 16-0.

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Padog

September 30th, 2016 at 8:45 AM ^

That gives the 1 and 2 team such a large advantage though. So much can happen in those games between the 3 and 6 and 4 and 5.
It basically ensures that if you are a top 2 seed that you will play in the Championship game.

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Ballislife

September 30th, 2016 at 1:12 AM ^

Scenario 1:

1. Michigan, 2. Alabama, 3. Louisville, 4. Baylor, 5. Washington, 6. Clemson, 7. OSU. Michigan is a no-brainer at #1. Bama gets the #2 over UL for playing tougher competition throughout the year.

Scenario 2:

1. Michigan, 2. Louisville, 3. Houston, 4. Baylor, 5. Stanford, 6. Alabama, 7, Clemson, 8. OSU. Again, Michigan is #1. UL gets the #2 spot over Houston for winning a tougher conference. Baylor gets the #4 for winning the Big XII and having a better record than SEC Champs Alabama.

Scenario 3: 

1. Michigan, 2. Clemson, 3. Baylor, 4. Houston, 5. Washington, 6. OSU, 7. Alabama. Michigan and Clemson claim the top 2 spots as undefeated conference champs. Baylor gets the #3 over Houston for playing tougher competition. 

FWIW, if UW/Stanford were to not lose the conference championship game, they would end up at #2, #2, and #3 in each scenario, respectively. 

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Mr. Yost

September 30th, 2016 at 8:03 AM ^

The point is to see what people weight more...strength of schedule, being undefeated, who you beat, or conference championships.

The point exactly why in so many scenarios you have Baylor winning the conference championship, but you have a team in a tougher/better conference going undefeated and having the SAME overall record as Baylor, but losing the conference championship game.

Then you have a 2 loss Bama in many of them as well.

The point is predicting the final 4 teams.

The point went over your head.

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Frank Chuck

September 30th, 2016 at 2:29 AM ^

Scenario 1: Michigan, Louisville, Alabama, Baylor

Scenario 2: Michigan, Houston, Louisville, Baylor

Scenario 3: Michigan, Houston, Clemson, Baylor

 

Winning the conference (with no more than 1 loss) matters to me. Hence, I chose Baylor as the 4th participant in all the scenarios.

I don't care if there a common opponent between Baylor and Ohio State. Win the conference.

I don't EVER want to see a scenario like 2011 where LSU played arguably the greatest schedule in college football history and went undefeated (13-0) but 11-1 Bama was afforded a rematch despite losing at home in overtime to LSU. So Bama didn't even win its divsion much less its conference and had a weaker resume than 11-1 Big 12 Champion Oklahoma State but was still given a second chance. F that bullshit. Win the division and the conference.

And yes, I recognize that 2016 Michigan might go 11-1 (with the lone loss at Ohio State) which would be similar to 2006.

The only way I would even consider privileging a non-division winner is if an 11-1 team is compared against an 11-2 or 12-1 team (ie. made the conference championship but lost).

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BoFan

September 30th, 2016 at 2:15 AM ^

Scenarios? Omg!

It's simple. The four are:

1 undefeated winner of Houston vs Louisville
2 one or less loss Bama - SEC champion
3 one or less loss Bigten champion. Most likely Ohio or Michigan
4 one or less loss Pac12 Champion. Stanford or Wasington

Big 12 is out
ACC is out with Clemson loss to Louisville and if Louisville loss to Houston

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Other Andrew

September 30th, 2016 at 2:34 AM ^

Before you label us all with your broad myopia brush, many of us prefer 4 or 6, and based on the comments in this section alone, nobody seems to be saying 8 is a good idea. It's been only three seasons (thus far extremely successeful). Let's see how this verison works out before we assume all are with in line with the concept of fundamentally changing the sport.

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drzoidburg

September 30th, 2016 at 3:19 AM ^

Baylor to me is out in every scenario. I don't give a damn what conference a team is from. Baylor's schedule is ass to the point i would take a 1 loss Houston over them #1: UM Louisville Bama OSU #2: UM Houston Louisville OSU #3: UM Houston Clemson OSU Washington schedule just not *quite* good enough at 1 loss and none of your scenarios had 4 worthy conference winners, so i picked Ohio As for 'biggest controversy ever' i can't agree. At 4 teams, all who have even a mildly tough schedule have a chance to run the table and get in. Those with 1 loss...had their chance. They are lucky the right teams lost at that point Seeding i would avoid rematches in semis though

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RedGreene

September 30th, 2016 at 8:49 AM ^

You're such a d-bag. Yost: Oh hey guys lets play a game. Mgoboard: Uh, no. This is stupid. Yost: you guys are big bullies and I'm responding to every person who doesn't agree with me. I hate to tell people to get a life but you really need to get a life.

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MadMatt

September 30th, 2016 at 7:11 AM ^

In all scenarios, the unbeaten conference champions are in.  Then the one loss conference champions, and as it works out, you have 4 teams in all three cases.  A one loss team that does not win its conference (no matter how close) is behind an one loss conference champion.  Also, a two or more loss conference champion (even the vaunted SEC) is behind a one loss conference champion.

I think you will be hard pressed to find any situation in the BCS or playoff era when those rules of thumb were not followed.

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