Just how good is this class, anyway? A new way of looking at rankings.
TLDR: It's very good. Jim Harbaugh deserves an absolute standing ovation. I ranked last year's class as a C- in absolute quality without factoring in the quick turnaround. This year's class gets an A and very nearly gets an A+. Stellar, stellar work.
But let's get a little deeper. One way to compare the quality of our recruiting against our Big Ten East competition is to look at absolute recruiting rankings. By that method, OSU is #3 nationally and #1 in the B10E, Michigan is #5 nationally and #2 in the B10E, PSU is #20 nationally and #3 in the B10E, and MSU is #21 nationally and #4 in the B10E.
What I don't like, however, is that these aggregated, overall rankings don't really divulge much information about the classes themselves. It's one thing to know our class isn't as good as Ohio State's, but where do they have us beat? At the top? In terms of depth? And is MSU's top end comparable to our own? I wanted to find new ways to find out.
I started by using the 247 composite player ratings instead of the player rankings. I used the ratings because they're more stable year-to-year. 247 rates players on a scale between 1.0 and .70. Roughly, ratings between 1.0 and .98 will be five star players. .97 and .90 are four star guys. .89 to .80 are the three stars, and everything below that is a two star.
First, let's look at each teams' class, ranked from their best player to their worst:
Next - and this is where it gets really interesting - let's put that into a graph. You can click the image to embiggen:
Player ratings run along the left edge of the graph. Higher up is better. The horizontal axis represents each player, organized from the highest rated to the lowest rated.
Some takeaways:
- Michigan's class is roughly equal to OSU at the top and at the bottom of the class. But where OSU really separates itself as the best is that the middle of the class is thick with higher rated guys. Our class drops off significantly between Ahmir Mitchell (.9265) and Brad Hawkins (.8997).
- PSU's variability is pretty remarkable. Their three highest rated prospects rival the tops of OSU and Michigan's classes. But things drop off quickly thereafter, and absent those three players their class is actually a little worse than MSU's. They need those three players (RB Sanders, OG Menet, and DE Simmons) to come through badly.
- MSU lacks top-end guys, although their decommitments (DE Robertson and WR Rison) hurt them badly. With a few more higher-rated talents, MSU's class would have rivaled our own in the middle and at the bottom of each respective class.
You also notice that the players separate themselves off into five "tiers" relative to these four schools. Let's use the horizontal quintile lines above to define our own range of "5-star," "4-star," "3-star," "2-star," and "1-star" players to get a feel for how each class stacks up numerically. That produces a chart like so:
MICH | OSU | MSU | PSU | |
"5-Star" | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
"4-Star" | 8 | 9 | 2 | 1 |
"3-Star" | 8 | 7 | 10 | 6 |
"2-Star" | 12 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
"1-Star" | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
Thoughts?
February 3rd, 2016 at 5:35 PM ^
To answer the question you pose in your thread title without reading everything... We won't know until 2018 or so...
February 3rd, 2016 at 5:38 PM ^
February 3rd, 2016 at 6:17 PM ^
I'd like to see this and laugh in victory. Where is the missage board located
February 3rd, 2016 at 6:28 PM ^
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February 3rd, 2016 at 6:33 PM ^
February 3rd, 2016 at 7:08 PM ^
Was hoping for a link but sure I'll take snarky comments
February 3rd, 2016 at 7:17 PM ^
The comments above are hilarious! Thanks!
February 3rd, 2016 at 5:38 PM ^
Don't care, got Gary.
*does happy dance*
February 3rd, 2016 at 5:39 PM ^
There seems to be an unusually large Preferred Walk-On (PWO) class as well. We have picked up commitments from 3 to 5 (out of the 12+ PWO's) additional players that were highly recruited by lower-level conferences. Even if we only find 1-3 Glasgow/Kovaks in this group, the level of intensity and competition will probably be raised for all of our freshmen athletes - all 40+ of them. Can you remember a total class at Michigan having 40+ incoming freshmen? Talk about Harbaugh developing his culture immediately!!
February 3rd, 2016 at 6:39 PM ^
February 3rd, 2016 at 5:41 PM ^
Answer: Check back in 2-3 years. Like NFL drafts its all great the day of or day after. After sifitng thru Bama and Ole Miss class and FSUs & OSUs this afternoon in down time they are all thinking the same thing.
I break the class into 3 groups - first group (1-167) we need a ton of starters out of and 3-4 elite players to get a NC. Second group (290-585) we need some quality starters out of. Last group (692 to 1000+) we need a surprise like a Willie Henry who was ranked 930 or something.
Somewhere in here are a few attritions, busts, injuries etc. It's always interesting to look back after the fact. Look back at our 2012 and 2013 classes for comparison which rank similar to this one (#4 and #6). Obviously far better staff to work with now.
Pos | Name | Ntl Rnk |
DL | Rashan Gary | 1 |
OL | Ben Bredeson | 39 |
QB | Brandon Peters | 61 |
CB | David Long | 65 |
TE | Devin Asiasi | 74 |
OL | Michael Onwenu | 88 |
RB | Kareem Walker | 100 |
WR | Kekoa Crawford | 119 |
CB | Lavert Hill | 135 |
ATH | Ahmir Mitchell | 167 |
WR | Brad Hawkins | 290 |
DL | Ron Johnson | 297 |
DL | Carlo Kemp | 306 |
LB | Devin Bush Jr | 319 |
ATH | Chris Evans | 332 |
TE | Nick Eubanks | 364 |
S / RB | Khaleke Hudson | 381 |
WR | Eddie McDoom | 403 |
LB | Elysee Mbem-Bosse | 490 |
WR | Nate Johnson | 585 |
K | Quinn Nordin | 692 |
LB | Joshua Uche | 707 |
OL | Stephen Spanellis | 735 |
RB | Kingston Davis | 737 |
TE | Sean McKeon | 859 |
DT | Michael Dwumfour | 947 |
S | Josh Metellus | >1000 |
LB | Dytarious Johnson | >1000 |
S / LB | Devin Gil | >1000 |
February 3rd, 2016 at 5:49 PM ^
It's interesting, but even if you focus on the "mdidle group" as you have it laid out here, it is incredibly strong. Sure, those kids are in the 300-550 range, and aren't your top 100 studs. But virtually every one of those guys has top-top-top offers from first rate Power 5 teams. Our "group 2" is better than most teams "group 1."
February 3rd, 2016 at 6:02 PM ^
Yes but with Harbaugh era you have to stop with the "most teams" stuff. We are now competing with OSU, FSU, Bama, Clemson types if we want our goals. We are not dealing with Wisconsin or Nebraska level teams now for our goals. We are dealing with a very specific subset of 5-6 teams nationally to get where we want to.
I would love to see the chart above with FSU, Bama, Auburn, Georgia spliced in.
We are not talking about 2003 and winning the Big 10. We have a monster in our own division and then there are monsters in the playoffs. Having good players in the 400s and 500s is the same as those elite teams. We need superstars to emerge from the top and a lot of 3rd 4th 5th round picks to emerge out of the rest, cognizant 8-10 of these guys wont work out
Also this specific class needs to be good in a short window as a ton of these guys are going to be starting or 1st in line in depth chart in 2017. It's a critical class to get a high hit rate on.
February 3rd, 2016 at 6:28 PM ^
February 3rd, 2016 at 7:57 PM ^
February 3rd, 2016 at 6:33 PM ^
February 3rd, 2016 at 7:29 PM ^
A good kicker is worth more, but sites undervalue them. I think it's because they can't rate them with confidence. QB is hugely important. They're not adequately weighted in class rankings.
You're wrong about Kingston Davis though. He made it very clear he wants to play RB and it's unlikely he'd be in this class if Harbaugh recruited him to play FB, a position he hasn't played. He's listed at FB by some sites because they think he projects there. He may in some offenses, but is the type of RB Harbaugh wants. That's another way players get undervalued. They get rated for a generic system, but might project better with the right fit.
February 3rd, 2016 at 5:44 PM ^
February 3rd, 2016 at 6:24 PM ^
February 3rd, 2016 at 10:20 PM ^
There will be flameouts at this school under Harbaugh; it happens everywhere. I don't know if Green lacked "heart" or whatever; for stretches he did seem like the best back UM had, at least under Hoke. Sometimes things just don't work out. I do think that Harbaugh's teams will be more flexible about moving guys around to try to maximize their abilities even if it wasn't the position they came in looking to fill.
February 4th, 2016 at 7:54 AM ^
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February 4th, 2016 at 1:33 PM ^
Drake Johnson came on strong to end 2014, but to start the year the buzz was that Green looked like the better option at RB compared to Smith. Again, he never lived up to the buzz, but Hoke's entire RB recruiting and development system was terrible, not just Green.
February 3rd, 2016 at 5:44 PM ^
February 3rd, 2016 at 5:47 PM ^
when osu walks onto the field, they have a blue chip athlete at each position, offense and defense. We have had what I'll say is above average, but not in the same league. Those guys make plays at times simply because of higher athleticism.
I think you couple what I perceive to be a "harder core more technical scheme" that I believe Michigan runs, with the caliber of athletes you see here today, I think we will like what we see in the upcoming years. Nutshell: a higher number of 11 players are doing their assignment on any given play.
Meijer is nonstop, for sure, but like anyone, he can and WILL be beaten.
February 3rd, 2016 at 7:02 PM ^
For 2017, I hope Donovan Peoples Jones will be one of our main targets.
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February 3rd, 2016 at 5:45 PM ^
February 3rd, 2016 at 5:47 PM ^
February 3rd, 2016 at 5:56 PM ^
February 3rd, 2016 at 6:07 PM ^
Dont think "starter" designation on DL is as important as most positions. We are probably going to rotate 8 guys and the guy who plays the most if everyone is injury free probably gets 60% of snaps.
With Gary the question is, is freshman Gary better than senior Taco Charlton as I think that is the battle at one end.
Inside I see Mone and Glasgow and Wormley the other end. If Henry was here I'd say Gary is not starting as he will lag behind these guys. I see him very much in a Malik McDowell freshman role - where he plays a lot but is not a starter but has very good impact and then explodes in year 2.
February 3rd, 2016 at 6:42 PM ^
February 3rd, 2016 at 7:14 PM ^
I think it' would be a surprise if we didn't end up with a freshman starting at LB. Grant Perry had a nice bowl game, but he's going to have a lot more competition at slot. I expect one of the freshmen to end up with more snaps. Asiasi is my pick to start in AJ Williams place. Nordin starting at P or PK would not be a surprise at all. They might even prefer Allen not do both.
February 3rd, 2016 at 9:55 PM ^
I neglected to discuss kicker, and I agree completely with you about it. If Nordin can equal Allen in one of his duties (and while Allen wound up being just fine at PK, he's not brilliant at it) there's no reason not to have him take over that side of the load.
I agree that it's possible for Perry to see competition at slot; my reserved view of their PT has more to do with the infrequency Harbaugh uses three-wide personnel. Even 50% of the snaps at slot probably works out to 10 or less (without looking at the actual numbers).
February 3rd, 2016 at 5:50 PM ^
guys will take a jump while in the system. We know Harbaugh and staff can spot talent and develop. I'll take their evalaution over someone that probably never saw the players play anyday.
February 3rd, 2016 at 6:07 PM ^
You answered my question in the OP. Reading failure on my part.
February 3rd, 2016 at 6:09 PM ^
February 3rd, 2016 at 6:12 PM ^
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February 3rd, 2016 at 6:44 PM ^
February 3rd, 2016 at 6:01 PM ^
OSU is #4 in the nation, not #3. They are less than 6 points ahead of us.
February 3rd, 2016 at 6:06 PM ^
They identify needs and seek the best player in that position. Sometimes they are not five star. The important consideration is are they coachable? A top tier coaching staff can make 3-4 star player play like they are five star.
February 3rd, 2016 at 6:09 PM ^
This year was a wash between Ohio State and Michigan recruiting for the first time in forever. MSU has a good class that is up there with PSU but most of those guys are from Michigan and surrounding states. Next year Michigan leads for most of the instate recruits so we'll see if they're is a drop off there.
February 3rd, 2016 at 7:22 PM ^
MSU's bread and butter is largely taking a share of the MI top 10 and then picking off 3*/4* tweeners from Indiana and Ohio. Their reach doesn't really extend beyond that. If those areas are shut out, their classes will just drop in quality. They won't be able to go out and recruit Texas or Virginia or Georgia
February 3rd, 2016 at 6:09 PM ^
Harbaugh have the class and A++....(reporter starts to speak) "PLUS!" in an interview today.
February 3rd, 2016 at 6:09 PM ^
I think just in sheer numbers we have more chances to develop successful players, but to be fair our two rivals also have pedigrees in development. I really think UM separates itself from Sparty next year. Harbaugh is better on all levels than Dantoni. The Game is going to be crucial next year. Michigan will have the more experienced team, but JT Barrett might be key to bridging the gap to their incoming talent and they'll be playing in that shit hole. With that said, I think next year will be special. No way Jimmy is going to forget Sparty's lack of sportsmanship or the beating Urbz gave us. If Michigan stays relatively healthy they should win the Big Ten.
February 3rd, 2016 at 6:15 PM ^
February 3rd, 2016 at 6:17 PM ^
February 3rd, 2016 at 6:54 PM ^
February 3rd, 2016 at 6:22 PM ^
February 3rd, 2016 at 6:24 PM ^
Looks like MSU stockpiled a lot of talent at two spots: WR and DL. They also signed a number of 3-star OL and with their track record of developing that position, I'd imagine most of those guys will pan out. Still, I think it's kind of an underwhelming haul for them considering the run of success they have had lately. There are no 5-stars and only one top-100 player.
February 3rd, 2016 at 8:42 PM ^
that in a disparaging way. They don't have the facilities, the 'it' factor; it's going to be hard to recruit there. Even so, the class is top 20 and the best one in Coach Dantonio's time in East Lansing. Coach Dantonio gets a lot out of his guys; now that he's got better 'guys', do you really expect them to take a dip? I wouldn't count on it.
February 3rd, 2016 at 9:44 PM ^