I’m looking at the COVID death stats and I realized something that shocked me. At 259 deaths, Michigan has more than all other B1G states (except NJ) combined (233)
Louisiana has more deaths than Michigan. It can’t all be temperature.
not surprising given Fiat Chrysler link
Southeast Michigan (home to the vast majority of Michigan’s cases and deaths) is home to a number of excellent hospitals. This isn’t because Michigan doctors don’t know how to do their jobs.
The curve of deaths always lags behind the curve of confirmed cases, because COVID-19 patients generally take awhile to actually die. So if our region has more deaths than the rest of the Midwest, it’s because we’re further along it - our residents started getting infected earlier, and now some are dying from it.
Detroit Metro has the 6th highest number of International flights in the US. Which could partially explain how quickly it was transmitted in the region.
Couple that with a population that flat out did not take this seriously, and the fact so many in Oakland and in particular Wayne County are in that "most vulnerable" category with underlying conditions.
Detroit is one of the most unhealthy cities in America, largely due to poverty.
Is DTW really #6 in America in international flights? I'm not doubting you, but that seems high.
JFK & ORD have flights to almost all international cities of importance ....... MIA, ATL & IAH have all kinds of flights to Latin America as well as most major European cities ....... LAX & SFO have all kinds of Asian flights as well as most major European cities.
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There is a lot to your latter sentence. Detroit is a very unhealthy city. New Orleans isn't unlike Detroit, and their COVID numbers are sky high too.
Tennessee, for some legal reasons, isn't releasing COVID deaths by county. But from someone I know there, it sounds like they are mostly in Memphis/Shelby County. Another city with the same issue.
Detroit is a Delta hub and is Delta's Eastern US hub to Asia. They're Delta's third largest hub to Europe as well.
DTW doesn't sniff the top 10 in terms of number of international destinations (JFK, EWR, MIA, ATL, ORD, IAH, DFW, LAX are all ahead of DTW).
They don't sniff the top 10 in terms of international passenger traffic, either (pretty much same as above).
They're #19 or so in total passenger traffic, behind MSP and FLL, and ahead of PHL and LGA.
in TN, the Nashville area is hit hard, also, but man - Memphis is kinda crazy right now.
Thanks
Now I'm not sure what I heard. Perhaps 6th highest flights to Asia. Anyway its a hub and does have frequent flights to China.
After New York, 259 is among the highest deaths in the country.
New Jersey is second (after NY obviously) and Michigan is third.
Surprised California isn't higher, whichi s where I live, but Newsome may have given the stay at home order in time before people could really fuck themselves.
But then there's states like West Virginia that are towards the bottom in cases and deaths, however, they're hardly testing.
Stay safe, my dudes and dudettes!
Newsome acted really quickly and people in CA are generally farther apart and don’t breath as much recirculated air as people in a mid west or east coast winter situation.
I wonder how the Bay Area compares to LA County? They’re a little more dense.
Source - I’m from California.
It's interesting how California can be looked at as two states in terms of coronavirus spread. The first cases were concentrated in Santa Clara County (NorCal) but they really clamped down quicker in the Bay Area compared to SoCal where the new case rate appears to be higher (LA County in particular) than anywhere in NorCal. Here in Orange County where we have large numbers of retirees social distancing is being taken seriously. We've generally had nice weather (sunny in the 60s) the last two weeks, but all public parking lots along the beaches were closed last week to discourage people from hanging out there. And a lot of stores like Target are offering online ordering and parking lot pickup services so one doesn't have to go inside.
Michigan was the last to shelter in place
No, we were earlier than most of the other states. Iowa and Pennsylvania still haven’t done it.
I am amazed that some states still haven't issued a SIP order. What are they thinking?
JMBlue,
This is not true. Let’s work with facts and stop all the speculation and guessing. I live in the bay area and have family in Michigan. So I followed closely. Data is linked below.
The bay area issued a shelter in place and closure of all essential services on the 16 of March. San Francisco was a day or two earlier. LA was a day or two later. The state was on the 19th.
Michigan was on the 24th
Pennsylvania was on the 23rd
Illinois was on the 21st
Further, based on folks I know in Michigan, the Michigan order was not really followed well at the start
Most important, every 2-3 days delay can mean a doubling of cases and deaths. We are seeing the results.
Data source for state wide orders:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
Historical study of quarantine orders by city for 1918:
Late at night and I cannot sleep, so I did some math. Curious if anyone has some thoughts about these numbers.
(1) We are at the point where about 1 in every 1,750 Americans has been CONFIRMED positive for CoronaVirus. Of course, that number varies by state: lower for New York (1 in every 250) and higher for Nebraska (1 in every 11,000).
(2) That number will probably be 1 in every 1,000 Americans (0.1%) by the weekend.
(3) But that is CONFIRMED cases. The actual number of cases is almost undoubtedly a lot higher:
(3A) Children, from everything I've read, generally aren't being tested at all. 0-17 years old is 20% of the American population - they can catch the CoronaVirus, and likely have in significant numbers. But they are considerably less likely than others to show serious symptoms. In fact, the 0-20 age cohort is only ~ 2% of all confirmed positive test results (1 in every 50).
(3B) Testing criteria for the 18+ age group - many of these people don't qualify for a test unless they are at higher risk or are showing significant symptoms.
(3C) Asymptomatic carriers appear to be on the order of 30-50% of all infections. These persons are almost universally not showing up among confirmed cases.
(4) Following from 3A, there's no particular reason to think children actually contract the virus at a lower rate than other age cohorts. So if 18+ age folk are 80% of the population and 98% of all confirmed positive cases, and if 0-17 age folk are 20% of the population and 2% of all confirmed positive cases, and if children actually have the virus at the same rate as other age cohorts, that in itself means confirmed cases are understated by a factor of 1.245.
(5) Following from 3B, I've read a number of reports that 90%+ of people showing symptoms are being denied tests. That's a lot. It would also mean confirmed cases are understated by an additional factor of 10. (I honestly think this multiplier could be conservative)
(6) Following from 3C, if asymptomatics are 30%-50%, that also means confirmed cases are understated by an additional factor of 1.43-2.
(7) Multiply the numbers from 4-6 together, and we get confirmed cases being understated by a total factor of 17.8 to 25.
(8) The 0.1% number from #2 is instead a 1.78%-2.5% number when looked at in this context. The actual number of people who have been infected.
(9) We are, of course, still going UP the curve. At 4055 deaths now, and a projected (per the U Washington model) 59287 deaths by May 1, that's a 14.62x increase between now and May 1.
(10) The increase in deaths, of course, will lag the increase in confirmed cases. That's how it goes, there is a lag between the illness and the death. Take that 14.62x increase from #9 and assume that the increase in total cases between now and May 1 is a bit less (10x).
(11) A 10x increase in total cases between now and May 1 means ~1% of the population has a confirmed case as of May 1. But that again is just CONFIRMED cases. Take the multipliers from #7, and it may mean 17.8%-25% of the population has been infected by May 1.
(12) That's a pretty significant number. And while it's not quite at "60% necessary for herd immunity" levels, we'd be pretty far along the x-axis on May 1 in terms of a significant chunk of the population having likely developed a level of immunity.
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Link to the U of Washington model --- that is getting some use from the White House: https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
Excellent analysis! It tracks pretty well with some models I built using different assumptions and variables, but it’s clear that only about 10% of total cases - maybe less - are confirmed. That’s the only way the math works out.
UW’s testing results are demonstrating that only 10% of the patients tested are positive for COVID-19. Calculating from the Health Weather data using that ratio of COVID-19 positive cases to total ILI, and assuming that we are missing 90% of cases, produces results in the same range.
Much depends, of course, on when the peak occurs. At current growth rates, a few days more is catastrophic. If the HW data is truly a good proxy, then even Michigan should start leveling off in a week or so.
nittany, if it were possible i'd kidnap you and force you to be a michigan fan, or at least a michigan fan first even if you still rooted for psu. would have a beer with you 10/10. keep analyzing and thank you.
I'd agree with this (although my analysis is not as detailed). I figured when the shit hit the fan 2.5 weeks ago that 1-3% of the population in metro areas on the east coast (Boston, CT NYC/Phili, NJ, to DC) had it in addition to seattle and a few other spots like Det, Chi, LA, Atl, DFW where travel is a big thing. In rural areas, likely less than 1%.
At this point I'd guess 3-5% of metro areas have it (maybe 5-8% in NYC) and about 1% have it in rural areas.
The lessons for this are to be incredibly proactive about shutting down the state. When you think there's one case, you likely have hundreds. If you think there are hundreds, there are likely 10k.
These types of analysis should be done (with much higher sophistication of course) in the future and should lead to national or at least regional shut downs... I'll say... uncomfortably early in the disease advancement. Like, imagine shutting all of MI down on 3/1 before anyone had been confirmed there. Not half measures, I mean full 2-3 week lockdown except essential businesses. People would have shit themselves thinking it's an over reaction... but would it have been?
I agree with all of this, and it also underscores why massive testing is going to be needed once we are all back out in the world - but also why it's inadequate. This bug is way too transmissible. We need surveillance via testing (which is at least 5-10 days backward looking) to be augmented by real-time smart devices monitoring body temps and/or other markers of infectious disease. Otherwise, the disease has a two week head start on its way to an epidemic.
I'm still reading A LOT of stories about people getting their test results back 7-12 days later.
(1) Take the test, (2) then it has to get shipped to some lab hundreds of miles away, (3) and where is a flight that will get it there, (4) and then it's at the back of a super-long line of tests to be processed, (5) and then the report has to be funneled back to the person.
As you said, one case "today" (the positive result today after the test early last week) could be a hundred cases in the actual today.
until random sampling is done on the entire population (not the highest priority right now), projections are very difficult to do.
China was caught smuggling Virus material in to Metro Airport in 2018 and also 2 other times.
LINK to National Review article posted later by Yahoo:
https://news.yahoo.com/border-patrol-stopped-chinese-biologist-19421472…
""U.S. Customs and Border Protection agents at Detroit Metro Airport stopped a Chinese scientist carrying vials believed to contain the MERS and SARS viruses in November 2018 — just over a year before the first reported Wuhan coronavirus case, according to an FBI tactical intelligence report obtained by Yahoo News.
“Inspection of the writing on the vials and the stated recipient led inspection personnel to believe the materials contained within the vials may be viable Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) materials,” the report reads. The vials were labeled “Antibodies”, and the unnamed scientist said he was asked to deliver them to a researcher at a U.S. institute.
The report also lays out a pattern of Chinese interference, detailing two other cases from May 2018 and September 2019, in which different Chinese nationals tried to enter the U.S. with undeclared flu strains and suspected E. coli, respectively.
“The Weapons of Mass Destruction Directorate assesses foreign scientific researchers who transport undeclared and undocumented biological materials into the United States in their personal carry-on and/or checked luggage almost certainly present a US biosecurity risk,” the report states. “The WMDD makes this assessment with high confidence based on liaison reporting with direct access.”
The FBI has stepped up its efforts to combat Chinese espionage operations in recent months after admitting failures in preventing the recruitment of U.S. researchers by Beijing’s “Thousand Talents Plan.”
“With our present-day knowledge of the threat from Chinese plans, we wish we had taken more rapid and comprehensive action in the past,” John Brown, assistant director of the counterintelligence division at the FBI, told a Senate subcommittee in November. “The time to make up for that is now.”
In January, the head of Harvard University’s chemistry department was federally charged with failing to disclose funding from the Chinese government, after he hid his involvement in the talents program, which encourages the stealing of U.S. intellectual property.
China has come under fire for its handling of the coronavirus, despite pushing propaganda, which has been parroted by Western media, in an attempt to shift criticism to the U.S. A study released earlier this month detailed how the Chinese Communist Party could have prevented 95 percent of total infections if it had acted sooner to limit the spread and warn others."
The US mainstream media is in bed with the Chinese and is defending their propaganda partially because they get Chinese money and partially out of their liberal hatred for Trump. Did you see this report on CNN or MSNBC? No... it barely made it on to Yahoo after the NR originally reported it.
The WHO is also in bed with China and is actually praising them for their "great work on containing the virus".
China created this nightmare...and do you really believe their official account of only 3,000 dead? LOL
We have to stop playing around: China is the US' enemy. They are not our friend. I have a ton of experience working with Chinese companies and I can tell you flat out that they are dishonest in the way that they do business and the majority of their businesses in the US are traced back to their government ownership in China.
Our government and other US interests sold out to China long ago and now we are feeling what could be the most fatal result of those rotten dealings.
not sure why you are being neg'd. seems particularly relevant and reasonably sourced. i mean, is anybody denying that these vials were seized at an entry point or that harvard's head chem guy was indicted? does anybody deny china's affirmative order to all of its corporations that they are to assist the state in espionage? and certainly the political dynamic in our country of side A hates side B, and vice versa, is undeniable. just how far that goes will make an argument, but the general idea isn't controversial.
emotion. world view. sense of self. what do you do when you realize a trading partner is really, slowly, trying to wreck you, and by virtually any means necessary and will deny even the most bald faced truths?
Not sure why he's getting negged. WHO official twitter account posted , in January, that Chinese officials were telling them there was no evidence of human to human transmission. There are numerous reports that China covered up early evidence of the outbreak, at least at the local levels.
https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152
IMO this is China's Chernobyl.
Probably because he's going off the political rails and using far right-wing talking points like they're gospel.
break it down. the three sentences he wrote right after the article are the only ones of note to draw your ire. and even those, unless you're looking for a fight because of the language used, aren't that controversial. nobody denies CNN and MSNBC are left wing, right? nobody denies the dynamic of not liking trump, right? so the language wasn't to your liking but that's majoring in minors. the rest of the post was accurate and uncontroversial.
straining out gnats but swallowing camels.
You're being disingenuous. The National Review is a far right wing outlet, which easily balances out CNN/MSNBC left wing views. But the story was also carried by Politico, which is quite balanced. But lets be honest - the tone of the whole post was blatantly political, and you know it. And you damn well why it's being negged because of that.
I've worked in the IC for decades, and I can tell you China is no friend of ours (nor is Russia, but that's another story). The story is real - they want to steal everything from us (but so does Isreal, as does everyone else), and there are plenty of people in this country who sell us out. But to say that the "mainstream media" (a Trump term if ever there was one) is in bed with China is just bullshit. Saying the WHO is in bed with China is bullshit. So these conspiracies, which would have to include thousands of people (maybe hundreds of thousands), have been kept secret for decades? By the media? LOL!!!
Those are both Trump quotes (as reported in right leaning publications), so I guess the Trump administration is also in bed with China.
There is enough shit to go around in both directions. But here you doing exactly what you are complaining about - defending a one-sided view by slamming someone with a different view.
Upvote. Thanks for doing the heavy lifting here.
Definitely the incoherent babble about mainstream media coverups after the article that was annoying.
Also it was never clear what exactly you were attempting to demonstrate with the article. Just simply that China is our enemy? Or are you saying that they intentionally brought the virus to the US to infect our population? If the former, ok fine. If the latter, you're trafficking in conspiracy theories and complaining that the media doesn't want to make the same insinuations based on conjecture.
I was trying (probably somewhat inarticulately) to say that XM knows damn well why CoverZero's post was being negged. Nothing more than that...
Its been proven many times, and reported by many outlets, that the virus is a creation of nature, not laboratory. I don't buy any theory that says China created it, or shipped it around the world. I'll agree with someone earlier that stated it was China's version of Chernobyl. It was a catastrophe that got out of hand and has been covered up to some degree in an effort to save face.
'Conspiracies' that involve thousands of people are nothing more than some jackass' tin foil hat being blown off by the wind...
Your conspiracy theory is a strawman. Nobody said that China created this to unleash it on the world. But it's clear that their secrecy, dishonesty, and propaganda helped make it a worldwide crisis far worse than it had to be. And because the WHO and everyone else is beholden to China, there are very few critical voices against the CCP regime. Within China, everyone who says anything against the regime disappears. But we'd rather talk about how calling it the Chinese virus is racist.
It was all pretty low stakes when it was just the NBA chastising an outspoken GM or the Taiwan flag being forced off of Maverick's jacket in the Top Gun sequel. But now we see the real human cost of appeasing an awful regime.
Seems to me that the initial article was meant to imply exactly what you're calling a 'straw man argument.' Others in this thread seem to be pushing the same theory. Glad you're not pushing it as well.
Seems to me that the initial article was meant to imply exactly what you're calling a 'straw man argument.' Others in this thread seem to be pushing the same theory. Glad you're not pushing it as well.
You are so blinded by emotion that you flew right past the facts to attack a messenger you hate. The question is: were the facts true?
Answer: yes.
Response: act rationally and realize China is an enemy state to its core. Thus, time to conform behavior accordingly
EDIT: let me add two things. first, trump praising china in any form is state craft, attempting to assuage their intense opposition to us at their core, and to try and gain some cooperation. what's he going to say, 'they join with iran, NK, and russia as the evil empire'? i mean, they deserve to be there, but that's not going to help us solve this problem.
second: i thought the national review was some left wing deal, i'm not that political. but i don't think yahoo is considered 'right wing', so is that good enough so that you and others can actually look at facts and not react to the messenger?
National Review is definitely self labeled conservative news.
Yahoo news (says a bit about our messenger) is a tabloid, like the ny post that traffics in anything clickable.
In any event, people aren't taking issue with the facts, just the leaps, conspiracy theories, and babble that came after it.
I'll respond to those facts: they are presented in a manner that suggests we should be suspicious of what happened here with coronavirus. I haven't heard from a single authority figure suggesting China brought the virus here intentionally. In any event, the virus has spread all over the world. Did China bring it everywhere? Seems that the virus doesn't need help to spread. And do we really think that if they were going for our jugular they'd hit... DETROIT??!!!?
You need to read the declassified FBI report.
What messenger do I hate? And what facts did I blow right past? And how much emotion did I show?
I used right wing outlets to show that Trump is in bed with China, just like the OP used left wing outlets to show that they're in bed with China. And here you are, again, defending the right wing (Trump) by attacking someone with a different view (me). The big point of my response is that China is bad - something we all know - and that there is no such thing as a conspiracy that can last for decades and include many thousands of people, most of whom are media. The main point was that you know damn well why that post (CoverZero's original) was being negged, because you've often complained about political posts showing up where no others are. But with this one, you defend one side while attacking the other for 'going political'.
My source on 'right wing' or 'left wing' is based on mediabiasfactcheck.com, which is not perfect. But I haven't found a better source of determining which news outlet to believe. I refuse to listen to anyone (or anything) that bases 'news' off a far right/left source.
you do realize that our gov't can't go all out flame war against china, right? i mean, they are one of our main supply chains. and more importantly, they provide upwards of 90% of our pharmaceuticals. but ya, let's cut the bastards off.
Trump isn't in bed with China. He's clearly lying in those quotes, as he lies all the time. But as XM said, it's statecraft. There's no reason to strain relations with a economic and nuclear power, especially at a time like this.
The media, on the other hand, has no such responsibility to de-escalate. They could do their jobs and properly investigate what China actually did, what their numbers really are, and how they let this get out of Wuhan. Instead, the day the US passed China in confirmed cases, every network uncritically posted headlines "US passes China for most Coronavirus cases."
All your dumbass did is see "Trump" without the requisite vitriol and logicless, hate spewing stupidity so it's gotta be right wing talking points, right? Nevermind the facts right in front of your myopic face.
Exactly right. China is our #1 enemy and far more of a threat than Russia
FULL Chinese Bio-Terrorism Article with Images here:
https://news.yahoo.com/suspected-sars-virus-and-flu-found-in-luggage-fb…
That is a strong reason. Needed everything shut down by the end of Jan. That would have bunched up someone's panties.
because Whitmer was two weeks late in ordering a shutdown.
Ohio had 1/3 the cases Michigan had and they shut down before us.
Yes, and the governor of Wuhan is the main one to blame for China's crisis. And the administrator of Bologna in Italy, and the mayor of Madrid in Spain. If only midlevel management had done better we all could have avoided this mess.
Two days.
DeWine did it on March 19, Whitmer on March 21
Fucking Christ this thread needs a grenade dropped in it
Yeah, it probably was the airport and lack of early testing that got Michigan (Detroit especially) going on the infection count.
here in South Carolina, I have to say the governor (who absolutely is Fog Horn Leg Horn) has done a good job of systematically shutting down hot spots and giving clear instructions and guidelines. We’ve had relatively few cases but that was due to shutting schools down pretty early and urging people to stay at home. For the most part people have done that. There was a flare up of people at beaches last weekend, so he shut those down (he hadn’t needed to because people had been generally obeying distancing) Yesterday, he shut down close contact non-essential businesses. And, instead of listing businesses that are considered essential, he listed businesses considered non-essential (nail and hair salons, entertainment venues, bowling alleys, gyms, strip joints, spas, tattoo parlors, etc). It’s well done so far. He’s balancing the need to keep as much open as possible but still minimize spread. He has also urged people to stay home since the beginning. SCDOT has measured vehicle traffic is down 67% since this started, a good indication people are staying home as much as possible.
Massive exposure to hotpots China and Iran is likely part of it along with a governor who is to busy chirping about politics to take action
The hospital my daughter works at in Toledo filled a floor last night. Toledo is basically preparing for the spread coming out of Detroit. She’s on the front line and told me this morning “dad this shits real”. Basically you go from ok to completely fucked in no time flat. Or you have mild symptoms and are sent home. She’s assigned to 3 patients and gets off work and balls for her hr drive home. Her biggest fear is getting to a point of where they decide who gets a vent or not.